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Forecasting: theory and practice

Author

Listed:
  • Fotios Petropoulos
  • Daniele Apiletti
  • Vassilios Assimakopoulos
  • Mohamed Zied Babai
  • Devon K. Barrow
  • Souhaib Ben Taieb
  • Christoph Bergmeir
  • Ricardo J. Bessa
  • Jakub Bijak
  • John E. Boylan
  • Jethro Browell
  • Claudio Carnevale
  • Jennifer L. Castle
  • Pasquale Cirillo
  • Michael P. Clements
  • Clara Cordeiro
  • Fernando Luiz Cyrino Oliveira
  • Shari De Baets
  • Alexander Dokumentov
  • Joanne Ellison
  • Piotr Fiszeder
  • Philip Hans Franses
  • David T. Frazier
  • Michael Gilliland
  • M. Sinan Gonul
  • Paul Goodwin
  • Luigi Grossi
  • Yael Grushka-Cockayne
  • Mariangela Guidolin
  • Massimo Guidolin
  • Ulrich Gunter
  • Xiaojia Guo
  • Renato Guseo
  • Nigel Harvey
  • David F. Hendry
  • Ross Hollyman
  • Tim Januschowski
  • Jooyoung Jeon
  • Victor Richmond R. Jose
  • Yanfei Kang
  • Anne B. Koehler
  • Stephan Kolassa
  • Nikolaos Kourentzes
  • Sonia Leva
  • Feng Li
  • Konstantia Litsiou
  • Spyros Makridakis
  • Gael M. Martin
  • Andrew B. Martinez
  • Sheik Meeran
  • Theodore Modis
  • Konstantinos Nikolopoulos
  • Dilek Onkal
  • Alessia Paccagnini
  • Anastasios Panagiotelis
  • Ioannis Panapakidis
  • Jose M. Pav'ia
  • Manuela Pedio
  • Diego J. Pedregal
  • Pierre Pinson
  • Patr'icia Ramos
  • David E. Rapach
  • J. James Reade
  • Bahman Rostami-Tabar
  • Micha{l} Rubaszek
  • Georgios Sermpinis
  • Han Lin Shang
  • Evangelos Spiliotis
  • Aris A. Syntetos
  • Priyanga Dilini Talagala
  • Thiyanga S. Talagala
  • Len Tashman
  • Dimitrios Thomakos
  • Thordis Thorarinsdottir
  • Ezio Todini
  • Juan Ram'on Trapero Arenas
  • Xiaoqian Wang
  • Robert L. Winkler
  • Alisa Yusupova
  • Florian Ziel
Abstract
Forecasting has always been at the forefront of decision making and planning. The uncertainty that surrounds the future is both exciting and challenging, with individuals and organisations seeking to minimise risks and maximise utilities. The large number of forecasting applications calls for a diverse set of forecasting methods to tackle real-life challenges. This article provides a non-systematic review of the theory and the practice of forecasting. We provide an overview of a wide range of theoretical, state-of-the-art models, methods, principles, and approaches to prepare, produce, organise, and evaluate forecasts. We then demonstrate how such theoretical concepts are applied in a variety of real-life contexts. We do not claim that this review is an exhaustive list of methods and applications. However, we wish that our encyclopedic presentation will offer a point of reference for the rich work that has been undertaken over the last decades, with some key insights for the future of forecasting theory and practice. Given its encyclopedic nature, the intended mode of reading is non-linear. We offer cross-references to allow the readers to navigate through the various topics. We complement the theoretical concepts and applications covered by large lists of free or open-source software implementations and publicly-available databases.

Suggested Citation

  • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    • Handle: RePEc:arx:papers:2012.03854
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    17. Makridakis, Spyros & Spiliotis, Evangelos & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios, 2022. "Predicting/hypothesizing the findings of the M5 competition," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(4), pages 1337-1345.
    18. Arvan, Meysam & Fahimnia, Behnam & Reisi, Mohsen & Siemsen, Enno, 2019. "Integrating human judgement into quantitative forecasting methods: A review," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 237-252.
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