Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v51y2005i2p305-310.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An ARIMA Supply Chain Model

Author

Listed:
  • Kenneth Gilbert

    (Department of Statistics, Operations and Management Science, University of Tennessee, Knoxville, Tennessee 37996-0532)

Abstract
This paper presents a multistage supply chain model that is based on Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) time-series models. Given an ARIMA model of consumer demand and the lead times at each stage, it is shown that the orders and inventories at each stage are also ARIMA, and closed-form expressions for these models are given. The paper also discusses the causes of the bullwhip effect, a phenomenon in which variation in demand produces larger variations in upstream orders and inventory. This discussion reveals how different modeling can lead to different insights because they make different assumptions about the cause of the bullwhip effect. These observations are used to develop managerial insights about reducing the bullwhip effect.

Suggested Citation

  • Kenneth Gilbert, 2005. "An ARIMA Supply Chain Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 305-310, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:2:p:305-310
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.1040.0308
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0308
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.1040.0308?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hau L. Lee & Kut C. So & Christopher S. Tang, 2000. "The Value of Information Sharing in a Two-Level Supply Chain," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(5), pages 626-643, May.
    2. Srinivasan Raghunathan, 2001. "Information Sharing in a Supply Chain: A Note on its Value when Demand Is Nonstationary," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(4), pages 605-610, April.
    3. Yossi Aviv, 2003. "A Time-Series Framework for Supply-Chain Inventory Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 210-227, April.
    4. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 1997. "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 43(4), pages 546-558, April.
    5. Yossi Aviv, 2002. "Gaining Benefits from Joint Forecasting and Replenishment Processes: The Case of Auto-Correlated Demand," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 4(1), pages 55-74, December.
    6. Frank Chen & Zvi Drezner & Jennifer K. Ryan & David Simchi-Levi, 2000. "Quantifying the Bullwhip Effect in a Simple Supply Chain: The Impact of Forecasting, Lead Times, and Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 46(3), pages 436-443, March.
    7. Yossi Aviv, 2001. "The Effect of Collaborative Forecasting on Supply Chain Performance," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 47(10), pages 1326-1343, October.
    8. Arthur F. Veinott, Jr., 1965. "Optimal Policy for a Multi-Product, Dynamic, Nonstationary Inventory Problem," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 12(3), pages 206-222, November.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Zhang, Xiaolong & Burke, Gerard J., 2011. "Analysis of compound bullwhip effect causes," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 210(3), pages 514-526, May.
    2. Li Chen & Hau L. Lee, 2009. "Information Sharing and Order Variability Control Under a Generalized Demand Model," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(5), pages 781-797, May.
    3. Yossi Aviv, 2003. "A Time-Series Framework for Supply-Chain Inventory Management," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 51(2), pages 210-227, April.
    4. Xiaolong Zhang, 2004. "Evolution of ARMA Demand in Supply Chains," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 6(2), pages 195-198, April.
    5. Xiangwen Lu & Jing-Sheng Song & Amelia Regan, 2006. "Inventory Planning with Forecast Updates: Approximate Solutions and Cost Error Bounds," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 54(6), pages 1079-1097, December.
    6. Kefeng Xu & Yang Dong & Yu Xia, 2014. "‘Too Little’ or ‘Too Late’: The Timing of Supply Chain Demand Collaboration," Working Papers 0203mss, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    7. Gérard P. Cachon & Taylor Randall & Glen M. Schmidt, 2007. "In Search of the Bullwhip Effect," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 9(4), pages 457-479, April.
    8. Zhao, Xiande & Xie, Jinxing & Wei, Jerry C., 2007. "The value of early order commitment in a two-level supply chain," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 180(1), pages 194-214, July.
    9. Agrawal, Sunil & Sengupta, Raghu Nandan & Shanker, Kripa, 2009. "Impact of information sharing and lead time on bullwhip effect and on-hand inventory," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 192(2), pages 576-593, January.
    10. Tang, Christopher S., 2006. "Perspectives in supply chain risk management," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 451-488, October.
    11. Ma, Yungao & Wang, Nengmin & He, Zhengwen & Lu, Jizhou & Liang, Huigang, 2015. "Analysis of the bullwhip effect in two parallel supply chains with interacting price-sensitive demands," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 243(3), pages 815-825.
    12. Li Chen & Hau L. Lee, 2012. "Bullwhip Effect Measurement and Its Implications," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 60(4), pages 771-784, August.
    13. Kaijie Zhu & Ulrich W. Thonemann, 2004. "Modeling the Benefits of Sharing Future Demand Information," Operations Research, INFORMS, vol. 52(1), pages 136-147, February.
    14. R Fildes & K Nikolopoulos & S F Crone & A A Syntetos, 2008. "Forecasting and operational research: a review," Journal of the Operational Research Society, Palgrave Macmillan;The OR Society, vol. 59(9), pages 1150-1172, September.
    15. Li Chen & Wei Luo & Kevin Shang, 2017. "Measuring the Bullwhip Effect: Discrepancy and Alignment Between Information and Material Flows," Manufacturing & Service Operations Management, INFORMS, vol. 19(1), pages 36-51, February.
    16. Hau L. Lee & V. Padmanabhan & Seungjin Whang, 2004. "Comments on "Information Distortion in a Supply Chain: The Bullwhip Effect"," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 50(12_supple), pages 1887-1893, December.
    17. Ketzenberg, Michael E. & Rosenzweig, Eve D. & Marucheck, Ann E. & Metters, Richard D., 2007. "A framework for the value of information in inventory replenishment," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1230-1250, November.
    18. Layth C. Alwan & Christian H. Weiß, 2017. "INAR implementation of newsvendor model for serially dependent demand counts," International Journal of Production Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 1085-1099, February.
    19. Li, Xiuhui & Wang, Qinan, 2007. "Coordination mechanisms of supply chain systems," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 179(1), pages 1-16, May.
    20. Ouyang, Yanfeng, 2007. "The effect of information sharing on supply chain stability and the bullwhip effect," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 182(3), pages 1107-1121, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:51:y:2005:i:2:p:305-310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.