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A critical overview of privacy-preserving approaches for collaborative forecasting

Author

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  • Gonçalves, Carla
  • Bessa, Ricardo J.
  • Pinson, Pierre
Abstract
Cooperation between different data owners may lead to an improvement in forecast quality—for instance, by benefiting from spatiotemporal dependencies in geographically distributed time series. Due to business competitive factors and personal data protection concerns, however, said data owners might be unwilling to share their data. Interest in collaborative privacy-preserving forecasting is thus increasing. This paper analyzes the state-of-the-art and unveils several shortcomings of existing methods in guaranteeing data privacy when employing vector autoregressive models. The methods are divided into three groups: data transformation, secure multi-party computations, and decomposition methods. The analysis shows that state-of-the-art techniques have limitations in preserving data privacy, such as (i) the necessary trade-off between privacy and forecasting accuracy, empirically evaluated through simulations and real-world experiments based on solar data; and (ii) iterative model fitting processes, which reveal data after a number of iterations.

Suggested Citation

  • Gonçalves, Carla & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Pinson, Pierre, 2021. "A critical overview of privacy-preserving approaches for collaborative forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 322-342.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:intfor:v:37:y:2021:i:1:p:322-342
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2020.06.003
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Zhao, Yongning & Pan, Shiji & Zhao, Yuan & Liao, Haohan & Ye, Lin & Zheng, Yingying, 2024. "Ultra-short-term wind power forecasting based on personalized robust federated learning with spatial collaboration," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    2. Karimi, Majid & Zaerpour, Nima, 2022. "Put your money where your forecast is: Supply chain collaborative forecasting with cost-function-based prediction markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 300(3), pages 1035-1049.
    3. Wang, Xiaoqian & Kang, Yanfei & Hyndman, Rob J. & Li, Feng, 2023. "Distributed ARIMA models for ultra-long time series," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1163-1184.
    4. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
      • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
    5. Pierre Pinson & Liyang Han & Jalal Kazempour, 2022. "Regression markets and application to energy forecasting," TOP: An Official Journal of the Spanish Society of Statistics and Operations Research, Springer;Sociedad de Estadística e Investigación Operativa, vol. 30(3), pages 533-573, October.
    6. Tawn, R. & Browell, J., 2022. "A review of very short-term wind and solar power forecasting," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 153(C).
    7. Li, Yang & Wang, Ruinong & Li, Yuanzheng & Zhang, Meng & Long, Chao, 2023. "Wind power forecasting considering data privacy protection: A federated deep reinforcement learning approach," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 329(C).

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