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Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in the UK

Author

Listed:
  • Sean Holly
  • M. Hashem Pesaran
  • Takashi Yamagata
Abstract
This paper provides a method for the analysis of the spatial and temporal diffusion of shocks in a dynamic system. We use changes in real house prices within the UK economy at the level of regions to illustrate its use. Adjustment to shocks involves both a region specific and a spatial effect. Shocks to a dominant region - London - are propagated contemporaneously and spatially to other regions. They in turn impact on other regions with a delay. We allow for lagged effects to echo back to the dominant region. London in turn is influenced by international developments through its link to New York and other financial centers. It is shown that New York house prices have a direct effect on London house prices. We analyse the effect of shocks using generalised spatio-temporal impulse responses. These highlight the diffusion of shocks both over time (as with the conventional impulse responses) and over space.

Suggested Citation

  • Sean Holly & M. Hashem Pesaran & Takashi Yamagata, 2010. "Spatial and Temporal Diffusion of House Prices in the UK," CESifo Working Paper Series 2913, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_2913
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    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    house prices; cross sectional dependence; spatial dependence;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C21 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Cross-Sectional Models; Spatial Models; Treatment Effect Models
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models

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