The Mad Professah Lectures

California Governor Gavin Newsom made headlines a few weeks ago when he announced a moratorium on the death penalty in the state along with the dismantling of the death chamber in San Quentin. Since California voters have rejected ballot measures twice in the last decade (and as recently as November 2016) to end the state's death penalty the media characterized the move as "thwarting" the will of the populace. However, new polling shows that Gov. Newsom may be more in line with public opinion in California than expected. According to the Public Policy Institute of California's March 2019 poll, voters approve of mandatory life without parole to the death penalty by a 58% to 38% margin, and when you expand to include all Californians (not just voters) support for the death penalty falls to 31%. The only  demographic group where support for the death penalty has increased is Republicans, with support at 64% while Democrats are at 21% and Independents at 36%. Thank Zeus we have so few Republicans in Deep Blue California their share of the electorate is low and falling and their impact on public policy is negligible!

Hat/tip to CalMatters

Previously I have blogged (repeatedly) about Americans uneasiness with voting for an atheist for president. However, a new survey from the American Humanist shows that progressive voters (who are pro-marriage equality and pro-choice) are happy to support an agnostic or atheist candidate for elected office.

The survey finds that 72% of liberal Democrats would vote for an atheist on the ballot. 74% of them would support a more generic “non-religious” or “agnostic” candidate.
Also interesting? 14% of those voters said they would be more likely to support an atheist while only 7% say the opposite.

Hat/tip to Friendly Atheist.

Brett Kavanaugh, Donald Trump's choice to replace Anthony Kennedy on the United States Supreme Court now has the dubious distinction to become the first high court nominee  in modern history to have more people expressing opposition to his elevation than support it.

NBC News reports:

In the poll — which was conducted Sunday (when the accusation from Christine Blasey Ford was first made public) through Wednesday — 38 percent of voters say they oppose Kavanaugh’s nomination to serve on the nation’s highest court, including 27 percent who “strongly” oppose him. 

That’s compared with 34 percent who support his nomination, including 25 percent who “strongly” support him. Twenty-eight percent say they don’t enough to have an opinion.

The support for Kavanaugh has gotten worse over time.


The next Supreme Court term begins October 1.

Hat/tip Axios

Hat/tip Political Wire

I'm still on vacation in Iceland but could not resist posting the information that public support for marriage equality has now been completely inverted in the last two decades, from 2:1 opposition to 2:1 support! I have been working for and involved with the freedom to marry movement since the early 1990s so this result is quite heartwarming.

Hat/tip USA TODAY

Hmmm! A recent poll suggests that Americans are pretty clueless about famous living scientists. According to Science AF:

1. Stephen Hawking (physicist)
2. Brian Greene (astrophysicist)
3. Neil deGrasse Tyson (astrophysicist)
4. France Cordova (director of the NSF)
5. Marcia McNutt (former editor-in-chief of Science, President of NAS)
6. Bill Nye (science celebrity)
7. Kip Thorne (astrophysicist & Nobel Laureate)
8. Terence Tao (mathematician and Fields medalist)
9. Ingrid Daubechies (mathematician)
10. Jane Goodall (primatologist)

Hat/tip to Research America.

The results of the months-long mail-in plebiscite on marriage equality in Australia were released yesterday and show that a vast majority of the country supports marriage equality down under!

The New York Times reports:

MELBOURNE, Australia — A solid majority of Australians voted in favor of same-sex marriage in a historic survey that, while not binding, paves the way for Parliament to legally recognize the unions of gay and lesbian couples. 

Of 12.7 million Australians who took part in the government survey, 61.6 percent voted yes and 38.4 percent voted no, officials announced on Wednesday morning. Participation was high, with 79.5 percent of voting-age Australians sending back their postal ballots. 

“The Australian people have spoken, and they have voted overwhelmingly ‘yes’ for marriage equality,” said Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull, who called the survey in a move described by advocates as a delay tactic devised to appease his party’s far-right faction. “They voted ‘yes’ for fairness, they voted ‘yes’ for commitment, they voted ‘yes’ for love.” 

The high turnout and unequivocal result amounted to a rebuke for Australia’s most conservative politicians, many of whom saw a majority of their constituents vote to support same-sex marriage despite their arguments against it.

Woo hoo! I think it may be time to plan a return trip to Oz in 2018!

From Five Thirty Eight comes this interesting analysis of a report from the Public Religion Research Institute (PRRI) which discusses the implications from looking at the differences in partisan affiliation of various religious groups. There are opportunities and challenges for Democrats:

There’s also evidence in the report that young religious voters of color in particular may feel less loyalty to the Democrats than older generations did. Only 35 percent of Hispanic Catholics under the age of 30 identify as Democrats, compared to 56 percent of Hispanic Catholic seniors. Similarly, just 58 percent of black Protestants under 30 say they’re Democrats, compared to 79 percent of black Protestants over the age of 65.

and Republicans:

So far, having a base that’s composed overwhelmingly of one demographic group hasn’t doomed Republican candidates — white, conservative Christian voters have been the bedrock of the GOP base since the 1980s and helped deliver President Trump to the White House last year. In 2016, a whopping 35 percent of Republicans were white evangelical Protestants, 18 percent were white mainline Protestants, and 16 percent were white Catholics; together, those groups account for nearly 70 percent of the Republican base.

To me, the most interesting aspect of the report is the age breakdown of the "religiously unaffiliated" (which I would call "the godless").  The results are 34% are age 18-29, 37% are 30-49, 19% are 50-64 and 10% are 65+.

Of course, for the last week the political world has been buzzing over the march by white supremacists and Nazis in Charlottesville, Virginia and President Trump's widely panned response. However, it should be noted that this negative response to Trump's assigning equal responsibility to white supremacists and those who oppose them for the violence that occurred in Charlottesville (despite the fact that it was an avowed racist who has been arrested and charged with driving the car that killed one of the people protesting the white supremacists) is not universal. 64% of Republicans  agree (with Trump's statements that "both [sides are] equally [to blame]" while 66% of Democrats assign responsibility to the neo-Nazis, anti-semites and white supremacists who marched in Charlottesville.

However, as I have blogged about previously on Saturday Politics Republicans have views about things that are very different from others, such as viewing discrimination against groups differently based on partisan differences as well as which groups suffer more discrimination than others.

Today's blog post is about how Republicans view many institutions (colleges and universities, labor unions, national news media and churches) very differently than others.

It is well-known that Donald Trump has historically low approval ratings, especially for a newly elected president. However, what may not be recognized is the geographical variation in his approval ratings. There are 17 states where Trump is above majority support averaged over the first 6 months of his presidency, according to Gallup. There are also 17 states where his approval average is below 40%!

President Donald Trump, who has averaged 40% job approval since his inauguration, received approval ratings of 50% or higher in 17 states in the first half of 2017. Residents in an equal number of states gave him approval ratings below 40%. In 16 states, his ratings ranged between 40% and 49%.

Hat/tip to Axios

As someone who was in the trenches fighting for marriage equality for close to twenty years, it is exciting to report that public opinion has now swung dramatically in favor of supporting same-sex marriages.

According to Gallup, 64% of Americans support marriage equality, with opposition at 34%. Even Republicans have plurality support for the position that the law should support marriages between same-sex couples.

To put it succinctly, Gallup says:

Though the Supreme Court has settled the legality of same-sex marriage, a third of Americans are opposed to it. 

But support for gay marriage has gradually increased over the past two decades, reaching majority support with new groups, as it did with senior citizens in 2016 and Protestants this year. Republicans' support for gay marriage is also at a new high and could trend toward majority support in the near future.

It is worth noting that nearly two years after Obergefell legalize same-sex marriage that a full third of respondents think it should be illegal.

However it is pretty awesome to see the trend; hopefully it will remain monotonically increasing from now on!

Equality California has released a poll which shows that 12% of California voters identify as LGBT. Interestingly, this number varied only slightly by geographical region in the state, from 10% in the Los Angeles area (11% in Los Angeles county) to 14% in the San Francisco Bay Area.

The poll discusses the margin of error:

The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 4 percentage points at a 95 percent confidence level. This means that 95 times out of 100, if a response to a given question to which all respondents answered was 50%, we could be 95% confident that the true percentage would fall within +/-4% of this percentage - or between 46% and 54%. As 12% of respondents in this survey answered “yes” when asked if they were a member of the LGBT community, we can infer that the sampling error specific to that response is +/- 2.4% or between 9.6% and 14.4%.

The poll's methodology of asking the question "Are you a member of the lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender community, also known as the LGBT community?" online may be an explanation for why they received such larger values than the more typical 2-4% number  that we have been more used to.

Somehow I was contacted by the good guys at Scruff (one of those location-based mobile phone apps that gay men use to connect with each other) to present some "Scrufftistics" about a non-scientific poll they conducted from October 28-31, 2016 about the 2016 election with nearly 13,000 respondents. It shows that among "GBTQ" (gay, bisexual, transgender and queer) men that 79% would vote for Hillary Clinton while only 11% would vote for Donald Trump. It should be interesting to see what exit polls of the electorate say about the LGBTQ vote and how (and whether) there will be a difference between these polls (I expect there will be).

There's a now-famous map from 538.com starkly depicting the gender gap between the 2016 presidential candidates. If only men voted the electoral map would look like this:

However, the Scruff data shows that if only gay men voted the map would look like this:

Although the Scruff data also indicates that in 5 states Trump would get more than 20% of the GBTQ vote Louisiana (28.32%), Wyoming (27.78%), North Dakota (23.08%), Alabama (20.48%)
and Delaware (20%).

Again, note that this is a non-scientific poll. There's no guarantee the respondents actually have any correlation with the broader population of GBTQ men in the United States (for example, 95% of respondents said they were registered to vote). Scruff asked age information (over 55% were between 35-54), income information (over 30% claimed over $100k annual salary) and religious affiliation (over 50% said they were not religious) but did not ask about race/ethnicity, which in my opinion was a lost opportunity.

Overall, I found the scruff survey contained an interesting snapshot of the LGBTQ community. I hope to see more information like this in the future.

I've been busy all day so I didn't get to post the latest prediction by FiveThirtyEight.com about the candidates' relative chances to be president with 42 days remaining (6 weeks) before election day. Hillary Clinton has a probability of 0.546 while Donald Trump has a probability  of 0.454. Last week, Clinton had a probability of 0.589 while Trump had a probability of 0.411.

President Obama is enjoying his highest approval ratings in over three years. Politico reports:

Overall, 50 percent of those surveyed said they approve of the job the president is doing so far in his final 365 days in office, up from the 46 percent rating he earned in his penultimate year. The 50 percent is also higher than the 47 percent approval average since 2009. 

Obama's approval is naturally split along partisan lines, with 87 percent of Democrats supporting his performance, an increase of 6 points from the beginning of 2016. Among Republicans, just 11 percent gave favorable marks to Obama, slightly down from the GOP average to date. 

While Obama's approval is higher than that of President George W. Bush at a comparable time in office, it is lower than that of his most immediate Democratic predecessor. In March 2000, 63 percent of Americans surveyed by Gallup said they approved of Bill Clinton's job performance. Bush, meanwhile, carried a 32 percent approval rating in March 2008.

The question is where will Obama's approval rating be on January 21, 2017? Higher or lower than where it is now? I'll bet it will be higher!

A new poll shows that marriage equality has majority support in Japan. This is something of a surprise because previous polls have shown that support for LGBT equality is not high in the Asian island nation.

Fifty-one percent of people polled by researchers from universities and the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research back such partnerships, the Asahi newspaper reported. Support exceeded 70 percent among respondents in their 20s and 30s, while 38 percent in their 60s and 24 percent in their 70s were in favor, the Asahi said.

Hat/tip to TowleRoad 

Here at MadProfessah.com we are extremely interested in religious liberty, especially for those who are atheists agnostic or godless. A new exclusive poll from PPP for DailyKos.com reveals that Republicans (who seem to spend a fair amount of their time bleating about religious liberties) really don't seem to understand what taht term actually means.

Nationwide, more than a third of Republicans say that Islam should be illegal in the United States, according to a new PPP poll provided exclusively to Daily Kos Elections. Nearly half—a 44 percent plurality—say Christianity should be our official religion. 

[...] 

Lest you think this is solely confined to Republicans, smaller numbers of both Democrats and independents also admitted to wanting to outlaw Islam (15 percent of Democrats, 20 percent of independents) and make Christianity our official religion (28 and 24 percent, respectively). 

Overall, for all respondents, the share that supports freedom of religion in deed, not just in word, barely clears the halfway mark: Just 53 percent of voters oppose making Christianity the official religion of the United States, and only 56 percent think Islam should be legal.

Now that marriage equality is the law of the land everywhere in the United States thanks to the U.S. Supreme Court ruling in Obergefell v. Hodges on June 26, activists and pundits have been waiting to see what impact this fact would have on public opinion. One poll released earlier this month from the Associated Presss showed a decided decrease in support for marriage equality (of 6 points), but the well-respected Gallup organization is out with its new poll, which it released with the headline "U.S. Support for Gay Marriage Stable After High Court Ruling."

Though the Supreme Court's decision has not immediately influenced Americans' overall opinion on the issue of same-sex marriage, this is not to suggest it will not affect opinion in the long run. 

Even after a 1967 Supreme Court decision that legalized interracial marriages, Gallup's polling in 1968 found that only one in five Americans (20%) approved of such marriages. It took three more decades to reach a majority of support. 

The path to legality of interracial marriage differed from same-sex marriage, though, in that the Supreme Court led public opinion bylegalizing something that Americans largely disapproved of at the time. Approval of same-sex marriage, however, has ascended significantly faster, and has enjoyed majority support for a few years before the court's decision. Still, a long view of the trend on gay marriage illustrates that support for it was steady and incremental, and that the movement's big victories in statewide ballot initiatives and legislature-enacted laws had limited effect on public opinion at large.

I really do not understand how one person's civil marriage affects someone else's. Hopefully even Republican Presidential candidates will figure that out eventually!