The Mad Professah Lectures: Karolina Pliskova

Showing posts with label Karolina Pliskova. Show all posts

Tuesday, November 05, 2019

2019 WTA YEC: Barty Defeats Svitolina To Win Biggest Paycheck in Tennis

Ash Barty this weekend won the biggest paycheck in women's tennis history when she won US$4.42 million for winning the Shiseido WTA Finals Shenzhen by defeating 2018 WTA Finals champion Elina Svitolina. Barty has had an amazing 2019 tennis season (which technically is over because she is playing in the 2019 Fed Cup final next weekend against France in Perth, Australia). In 2019, after never being ranked higher than #15 in the World or reaching a major semifinal, she won the 2019 Roland Garros title and ascended to World #1, eventually earning the end-of-year #1 ranking for 2019.

At the WTA Finals (which she qualified for the first time this year, becoming one of the very few players to win it in their debut) she was able to come from behind against World #2 Karolina Pliskova in the semifinals to win 4-6 6-2 6-3 (as I predicted). Svitolina had a lot more trouble with Belinda Bencic than I expected, with the Swiss player becoming the 4th(!) to withdraw from the tournament, following the heels of Naomi Osaka, Bianca Andreescu and Kiki Bertens. Bencic won the first set 7-5 against Svitolina but then had an injury in the second set, lost that 6-3 and finally withdrew from the match and tournament trailing 1-4 in the third.

I suspect Barty's year will come to a perfect end when she powers Australia past France in the Fed Cup.

Friday, November 01, 2019

2019 WTA YEC: Barty versus Pliskova, Svitolina versus Bencic

The semifinals of the WTA Year-End Championships, now called the Shiseido WTA Finals Shenzhen, are set for Saturday. They feature World #1 Ash Barty versus current World #2 Karolina Pliskova and 2018 defending champion Elina Svitolina versus Belina Bencic. Svitolina is now 8-0 in the last two year-end championships; she has never lost in the tournament so far and she is the first player to reach the semifinal stage without dropping a set since Serena Williams achieved that feat in 2014. Svitolina has beaten Simona Halep, Karolina Pliskova and (2nd Alternate) Sofia Kenin all in straight sets to reach the knockout stage.

Barty leads Pliskova 3-2 and Bencic leads Svitolina 2-1 in the head-to-head matchups.

MadProfessah's predictions: Svitolina defeats Bencic (in 3) and Barty beats Pliskova (in 2).

Tuesday, September 03, 2019

2019 US OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2019 U.S. Open Championships. I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals. Last year I predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals correctly and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals correctly.

~~Naomi Osaka (JPN) [1]~~ Belinda Bencic (SUI) [13] vs. Donna Vekic (CRO) [23]. Belinda Bencic has now completed a hat trick of victories in 2019 over 2-time major champion (and current World #1) Naomi Osaka. For some reason, Bencic's clever all-court game just matches up well against Osaka's power. The implications of this win are many: We are guaranteed a new US Open champion, there will be four different winners of the last four Grand Slams this year and Ash Barty will return to World #1 despite losing to Wang Qiang in the fourth round. Vekic plays similarly to Osaka (but doesn't move as well) but has also been having good results this year. Bencic has a slight 2-1 head-to-head lead over Vekic is playing in her first major quarterfinal, Bencic in her second. PREDICTION: Bencic.

Bianca Andreescu (CAN) [15] vs. Elise Mertens (BEL) [25]. Andreescu is playing in her very first main draw of the US Open and has made it into the quarterfinals. She overpowered Taylor Townsend 6-1 4-6 6-1 in the fourth round, ruthlessly dispatching the tournament's feel-good story with power and resolve. There are only 8 players in the history of the tournament have achieved this feat and some of them have surnames like Williams, Evert and Austin. Brad Gilbert has picked the 15-seed to win the tournament and after watching that match I'm starting to become a Bibi-liever. PREDICTION: Andreescu.

~~Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [3]~~ Johanna Konta (GBR) [16] vs. Elina Svitolina (UKR) [5]. I was courtside on Louis Armstrong court on Sunday when Johanna Konta upended her 1-6 career head-to-head against World #3 Karolina Pliskova to score a tough 3-set win and reach her 3rd consecutive major quarterfinal of 2019. Svitolina is also playing in her 3rd major quarterfinal of the year and 9th of her career. Prior to Wimbledon she had previously lost every major quarterfinal she played in. This will be an even tougher ask for Konta than the Pliskova match because she has an 0-4 record against Svitolina but I think her game matches up well. This should be the best match of the four. I want to say that I think Konta will win but somehow I think the fact that both Monfils and Svitolina are doing well simultaneously in New York will carry them both over the finish line. PREDICTION: Svitolina.

Serena Williams (USA) [8] vs. Wang Qiang (CHN) [18]. Serena won her fourth round in straight sets but roller her ankle during it. It was a rolled ankle (while holding match point) which led to a colossal collapse in Australia against Pliskova earlier this year (losing from 5-1 up in the 3rd set!) However, now she has had two days to recover and even with 75-80% physical fitness as long as she is mentally tough Serena should be able to win. She's now the only player remaining in the draw who has ever even been to a major final, making this a great opportunity to win another major title, her first as a mother. PREDICTION: Williams.

Wednesday, July 10, 2019

2019 WIMBLEDON: Women's Semifinals Preview (and Predictions)

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 Wimbledon Championships. This year I correctly predicted the results of 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 1 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals.

Serena Williams (USA) [11] vs. Johanna Konta (GBR) [19] Barbora Strycova (CZE). This is definitely not the semifinal Britain expected (or wanted) to see. British #1 Jo Konta led 4-1 in the first set against the crafty Strycova but somehow managed to lose her lead and then a tight tiebreak (7-5). For some reason, instead of buckling down and summoning another come-from-behind victory like she had done against two major champions, Konta unravelled completely and lost in straight sets 7-6(5) 6-1. Meanwhile Serena was locked in the most exciting match of the tournament so far with fellow American Alison Riske, who had taken out the reigning World #1 in straight sets the round before and used her burgeoning confidence and grass-suitable game to go toe-to-toe with the G.O.A.T. The result was a highly entertaining (and high quality) 6-4 4-6 6-3 win for Serena. The 23-time major champion is trying to reach her 32nd major final by playing in her 37th major semifinal and become the oldest woman in the modern era to reach a major final (older than Martina Navratilova was in the 1994 Wimbledon final by 33 days!) She faces Strycova who is now the oldest player to become a first-time Grand Slam semifinalist (older than Roberta Vinci who did it at the 2015 US Open). These records are a bit ominous for Serena but the good news is that she has played 3 matches (6 sets) against her semifinal opponent and has won all of them. I expect that streak to continue on Thursday. PREDICTION: Williams.

Elina Svitolina (UKR) [8] vs. Simona Halep (ROU) [7]. Elina Svitolina and Simona Halep are beginning to develop an interesting rivalry, which Svitolina leads 4-3 (but Halep won their last meeting earlier this year in Doha). Halep is playing in her 7th major semifinal (4-2 record) while Svitolina has finally made her first one here at Wimbledo this year. Halep definitely has experience on her side while Svitolina has current form on hers. This semifinal will probably be the more exciting of the two matches and I would be surprised if it does not go to three sets. When matches are this tight unless there is some external factor (like an overly lopsided head-to-head) I usually go with the person who I think is the better "athlete." In this case, I think that is the Romanian former #1 and major champion. PREDICTION: Halep.

Sunday, March 31, 2019

2019 MIAMI: Barty and Federer Win Titles (over Pliskova and Isner)!

As I predicted, Roger Federer and Ash Barty won their respective finals at the 2019 Miami Open. Barty outplayed Karolina Pliskova, continuing 2019's odd streak of every tournament being won by a new player, and breaking into the WTA Top 10 in the process. Federer denied John Isner a chance to repeat as Miami Open champion, becoming the first player on tour to win two titles in 2019, his 100th and 101st of his career. Jimmy Connors record of 109 career titles is starting look more and more doable!

Federer won 6-1 6-4, the first two sets in the tournament where Isner had been unable to win at least 6 games (Isner won 9 of his 10 sets in tiebreaks!). Federer broke Isner in the very first game of the match and although Isner was able to hold his next service game he ended up losing the first set in 24 minutes, with three breaks. At the end of the second set Isner had intense foot pain and could merely move as he gingerly served in the 10th game, refusing to retire. This was Federer's 50th Masters final and he is now 28-22, just behind Novak Djokovic (33) and Rafael Nadal (32) on the all-time leaderboard.

Barty beat Pliskova 7-6(1) 6-3 despite going down 1-3 in the opening set. The diminutive Aussie has an all-court game and deploys slice and topspin backhands. Surprisingly, Barty out-aced the WTA's top server, but this was mostly because Pliskova appeared to stop mounting an offense in the second set and was concentrating on holding her own serve instead of breaking Barty's.

Saturday, March 30, 2019

2019 MIAMI: Federer-Isner, Barty-Pliskova Finals Set

The finals of the 2019 Miami Open are set. In the women's draw, World #5 Karolina Pliskova of Czech Republic will face World #11 Ash Barty of Australia for their biggest title. The two have a 2-2 head-to-head and both have played well in Miami to reach this spot. Barty beat Petra Kvitova in her draw while Pliskova beat World #2 Simona Halep. With a win Pliskova will rise to World #2 and Barty will enter the Top 10 regardless of the outcome. I saw their last match, which was in the 4th round of the 2018 US Open, won by Pliskova in two tight straight sets. Madprofessah's pick: Barty.

In the men's draw, John Isner is the defending champion and has surprisingly made it back to the final, for only the 5th time in a Masters Series 1000 event (1-3 record). He will be playing Roger Federer who is playing in his fiftieth(!) Masters final (27-22 record) and second consecutive final. He lost to Dominc Thiem in a tough 3-set match two weeks ago. He has a 5-2 head-to-head advantage against Isner, but the last time they played the big man won a 3rd set tiebreak in the Paris Indoors. That being said I think Federer will figure out a way to claim his 101st career title. MadProfessah's pick: Federer.

Tuesday, February 12, 2019

TENNIS TUESDAY: Osaka Splits From Sascha, Fed Cup Semis Set, Serena Back to WTA Top10

NAOMI OSAKA ANNOUNCES SPLIT FROM COACH SASCHA BAJIN
Wow! World #1 Naomi Osaka has announced she has ended her coaching relationship with Sascha Bajin, who was with her as she raced up the rankings from #72 a year ago to winning the 2018 US Open and 2019 Australian Open and become the #1 ranked player in the world. Bajin was a longtime member of Serena Williams's support staff and was named WTA Coach of the Year in 2018. This is the fourth example of a Grand Slam winner dropping a coach within a short time afterwards: Angelique Kerber split with Wim Fisette after winning 2018 Wimbledon, Simona Halep split with Darren Cahill after winning the 2018 French Open and Sloane Stephens split with Kamau Murray after winning the 2017 US Open.

FED CUP SEMIFINALS SET UP: ROMANIA V. FRANCE, AUSTRALIA V. BELARUS
In a surprising result, Romania beat defending champs Czech Republic and Australia beat the United States (playing without any major champions), Belarus beat Germany (without Kerber) and France beat Belgium. The Fed Cup semifinals will be played in April. Ash Barty won all 3 ties for Australia. Halep had a key win over Pliskova in the #CZEROU matchup.

SERENA WILLIAMS WILL RETURN TO TOP 10 NEXT WEEK
Amazingly, even though she has only played in 7(!) tournaments in the last year, reaching 2 major finals (2018 Wimbledon and 2018 US Open), Serena Williams will be rejoining the WTA Top 10.

TSONGA ENDS TITLE DROUGHT AT OPEN SUD DE FRANCE
Jo-Wilfried Tsonga won his 17th career title (his first title in more than a year). He defeated Pierre-Hugues Herbert in the final of the Open Sud de France 6-4 6-2.

Saturday, January 26, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Osaka Wins 2nd Major Title And Reaches WTA #1

Despite my prediction to the contrary, Naomi Osaka defeated Petra Kvitova 7-6(2) 5-7 6-4 to win the 2019 Australian Open singles title, her second consecutive major title at the tender age of 21. Additionally, with the win Osaka will assume the top ranking on the women's tour on Monday, becoming the first player of Asian descent, male or female to reach World #1. Kvitova will be World #2.

How The Match Was Won

The first set was a high quality affair, with both players hitting their marks on their serve and defending break points well. To me this, was where I started to doubt that Kvitova would win the match, when in the 7th game Osaka went down 0-40 but was able to save all 3 breakpoints, primarily from missed service returns. As one of the commentators said, Kvitova wasn't playing the scoreboard well. She was consistently going for too much on important points and often missing. In some sense, it takes guts to continue going for her shots instead of playing it safe, so maybe there was no way she was going to win this match playing at the level she had access to on that day. To me, it was clear that this was not the Peak Petra that we had previously seen in her two appearance in major finals. Osaka raised her game at exactly the right time, and ended up winning the tiebreaker 7-2.

In the second set, Kvitova went up an early break but Osaka was able to break back immediately and snatched the momentum to win 4 games in a row and eventually earned three consecutive match points as Kvitova served to stay in the match 3-5. Astonishingly, Kvitova started playing some of her best tennis at this point and saved all three match points. When Osaka went to serve for the championship she was promptly broken before she had a championship point on her own serve and the momentum had clearly switched. Osaka had a full meltdown and ended up double faulting on set point to lose the second set 5-7.

In the third set, Osaka recovered from her meltdown and stoically played solid and powerful tennis while Kvitova couldn't maintain the momentum from winning the second set and eventually was broken in her second service game. Osaka didn't look back from there and this time when she served for the championship she reached triple championship point, and eventually won the match and the title on her 5th match point.

Implications Of The Win

Osaka became the first player, male or female, to win their first two consecutive major titles since Jennifer Capriati won the 2001 Australian Open and French Open. The Japanese player became the first female player since Serena Williams to win back-to-back major titles in 2003 on her way to her first Serena Slam. By reaching World #1 at age 21 and winning 2 major finals Osaka assures that she will be entered into the Tennis Hall of Fame. In fact, many observers are suggesting that her ascendance marks a phase change at the top of woman's tennis, where it is now conceivable that even if Serena Williams were to play her very best tennis, she may not win against Osaka.

Friday, January 25, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Women's Final Preview (and Semifinals Review)

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [4] vs. Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8]

This is my prediction post for the 2019 Australian Open women's final. Last year I incorrectly predicted that Simona Halep would beat Caroline Wozniacki in the 2018 Aussie Open women's final. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I will also predict the winner of the 2019 Aussie Open men's final between Rafael Nadal and Novak Djokovic.

WOMEN'S SEMIFINALS REVIEW

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [4] d. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [7] 6-2 4-6 6-4. This was actually quite a good match but it was overshadowed by the dramatics of the round before, when Pliskova completed one of the all-time historic comebacks, amazingly against Serena Williams. She came back from 1-5 30-40 down in the final set and won the last 6 games of the set after Serena roller her ankle and failed to win another point on serve, despite having four match points. So, one would have thought that Pliskova would realize that she's playing with "house money" and come out blasting against Osaka but that is not what happened. It's clear now that Osaka has the game and mentality to get to the top of the women's game and she has demonstrated that repeatedly in the last 6 months.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8] d. Danielle Collins (USA) 7-6(2) 6-0. Although Pliskova's upset of Serena was historic, in some sense Collins 6-0 6-2 win over 3-time major champion Angie Kerber in the fourth round is even more astounding. The 25-year-old American had never won a grand slam match before and she ended up winning 5 matches in a row in Melbourne. For one set she held Kvitova to a tiebreak set, the first player in the tournament to stay even with the 2-time major champion for so long this year. Collins has a feisty personality, enjoying the competition and the fight. She is an excellent counterpuncher and handles pace quite well. Hopefully this breakthrough will give her the confidence to make a bigger splash on the women's tour.

WOMEN'S FINALS PREVIEW

Last year's final featured two players in Simona Halep and Caroline Wozniacki who had not won a grand slam, who were also competing for the #1 ranking in the world (although they had both held it previously). This year, the final features two players in Naomi Osaka and Petra Kvitova who have both won a major but who have not reached World #1. If Osaka wins she will become World #1 at age 20, the youngest since Wozniacki did it in 2011. If Kvitova wins, she will become the oldest player to reach #1 for the first time. The two are taking undefeated grand slam final records in to this match, with Osaka 1-0 (2018 US Open, d. S. Williams) and Kvitova 2-0 (2014 Wimbledon d. Bouchard; 2011 Wimbledon d. Sharapova) so someone will experience their fist major final loss today. Kvitova has an amazing 26-7 record in finals and has won her last 8 on the tour. She is contending for the #1 spot because of her all-round stellar play on the tour, including wining the Sydney warm-up tournament over Ash Barty, while Osaka is going for her second consecutive major title. Amazingly, the two have never played on tour before, so this is their very first meeting. That will almost certainly result in a very nervous start for both players. I would be shocked if P3tra doesn't live up to her name and the match end in straight sets. (Neither player has lost a set in a major final before either.) Their games are very similar, they play big babe, first strike tennis. Kvitova has the fact that she's a lefty in her favor, but Osaka has the more consistent serve. Osaka is possibly the better athlete, but Kvitova's amazing record in finals is very convincing to me.
MadProfessah's pick: Kvitova.

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the 2019 Australian Open. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals and 2 of 2 men's semifinals. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I will also predict the men's semifinals this year.

~~Serena Williams (USA) [16]~~ Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [7] vs. Naomi Osaka (JPN)[4]. Wow! One round after outlasting the World #1 Simona Halep in a very high-quality 3-set match Serena Williams led Karolina Pliskova 5-1 40-30 in the 3rd set when she was called on a foot fault on match point. After serving she played a point where she rolled her ankle and from then on she could not win a point on serve. Serena ended up having 4 match points in all and losing all of them (generally on outstanding play by her opponent). Once the score was even at 5-all Serena still couldn't hold serve and was broken at love and then saved 2 match points before losing on her 3rd. So, former World #1 Pliskova will face off for the right to play in her first Australian Open final with the reigning US Open champion Naomi Osaka, who dismissed Elina Svitolina in straight sets. Pliskova and Osaka have played 3 times and Pliskova leads 2-1, including a tight straight sets win in the Tokyo final. Pliskova was impressively impassive against Serena today but I still give the edge to Osaka because of her experience and the fact I think she's a better athlete. PREDICTION: Osaka.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8] vs. Danielle Collins (USA). Danielle Collins has already won more money here by reaching the semifinals than she has in the rest of her career combined. She is playing against a 2-time major champion. Amazingly, these two players have played once before (just a few weeks ago) and Kvitova won a relatively tight 3-set affair featuring two tiebreak sets. In this match which is much more important I would be shocked if the player with more experience does not make it through. PREDICTION: Kvitova.

Monday, January 21, 2019

2019 AUS OPEN: Women's Quarterfinal Preview and Predictions

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the 2019 Australian Open. Last year I did not predict the quarterfinals. This year I have also predicted the men's quarterfinals.

~~Simona Halep (ROU) [1]~~ Serena Williams (USA) [16] vs. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [7]. Serena Williams is playing in her 50th(!) major quarterfinal while her opponent is playing in her seventh. Serena has won this tournament seven times (2003, 2005, 2007, 2009, 2010, 2015, 2017) and is looking like she really wants to get her record-tying 24th major title here in Melbourne. She played the best match of her post-maternity come back to notch her 17th win against a reigning #1 by defeating Simona Halep in a very high-quality 3-set match 6-1 4-6 6-4. Her opponent will be former #1 Karolina Pliskova who eliminated 2-time major champion Garbine Muguruza in straight sets in exactly an hour. Curiously, the one time that Pliskova defeated Serena, it was at the 2016 U.S. Open, one round after Serena won a brilliant match against Halep. Will history repeat itself? I seriously doubt it. PREDICTION: Serena.

Petra Kvitova (CZE) [8] vs. Ashleigh Barty (AUS) [15]. This is a reprise of the 2019 Sydney final, which was won by Kvitova in a 3rd set tiebreak. Presumably that experience should give the Czech 2-time major champion the edge against the craft Aussie who will almost certainly have the entire crowd rooting for her. It's very possible this could be another barn burner of a match. Peak Petra is unplayable, but did Kvitova peak too early be dispatching the teenage phenom Ananda Anisimova the round before in straight sets? Has Barty finally realized she has the tools to hang with the big babes now that she outlasted Maria Sharapova 6-4 in the 3rd set? This should be an exciting match-up. The winner will play the winner of the Serena-Pliskova match so the final will still be a fair distance away. All that being said, I think experience may be dispositive. PREDICTION: Kvitova.

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [4] vs. Elina Svitolina (UKR) [6]. This may be the most exciting of the four quarterfinals. These two players are the closest in ranking of any of the match-ups with Svitolina holding a tight 3-2 lead in their head-to-head, including both times they played in 2018, with all 5 meetings on hard courts. That being said, is Osaka really the same player after having won a slam (2018 US Open) by defeating her idol Serena Williams? Probably not, but neither is Elina Svitolina, having won the 2018 year-end championship by outlasting Sloane Stephens. Osaka has had to problem solve her way through two tricky opponents in the last two rounds (Anastasja Sevastova and Su-Wei Hseih) while Svitolina survived the barrage against Madison Keys to win a see-saw 6-2 1-6 6-1 slugfest. Playing Keys is a good preparation for playing Osaka but there's no question that Osaka is a smarter player than the American. Svitolina is the women's tour version of Sascha Zverev and it is definitely time for her to breakthrough at a major. Is this the match that does it? I think it is very possible, but now I give Osaka the edge because she has more experience, despite being significantly younger. PREDICTION: Osaka.

~~Angelique Kerber (GER) [2]~~ Danielle Collins (USA) vs. ~~Sloane Stephens (USA) [5]~~ Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova (RUS). Collins announced herself last year when she kicked Venus Williams out of the Miami Open. Prior to this year, the 25-year-old American had never won a match in a major and in Australia she engineered one of the most jaw-dropping scorelines of the entire tournament, a 6-0 6-2 drubbing of 3-time major champion Angelique Kerber. Her opponent is Pavlyuchenkova, who was able to outlast Sloane Stephens in a surprising victory. Neither of these players really have any right to be in a major semifinal and will be major underdogs to reach the final against the winner of the other quarterfinalist. In these situations, I usually go with the person who is the better athlete. PREDICTION: Collins.

Tuesday, October 30, 2018

2018 WTA YEC: Svitolina Wins Her Biggest Title, Outlasting Stephens 36 62 62

Elina Svitolina won the biggest title of her career by defeating 2017 US Open champion and 2018 French Open finalist Sloane Stephens 3-6 6-2 6-2 to win the 2018 WTA BNP Paribas WTA Finals Singapore. Svitolina still has not reached a major final despite being in the Top 10 of the WTA tour for well over a year; her win here leaves her at World #4 for the 2018 season. Both Svitolina and Stephens were undefeated in round robin play to reach the semifinals, with Stephens defeating Karolina Pliskova (despite losing the first set 6-0!) and Svitolina outlasted the surprise semifinalist Kiki Bertens in three sets to reach the most important match of the year.

Friday, October 19, 2018

2018 WTA YEC: Draw Is Set (Halep Withdraws); Osaka, Kerber, Stephens in Same Group

The WTA Year End Championships is starting in Singapore this weekend. Participation is restricted to the Top 8 performers on the WTA tour, which usually (but not always) includes the winners of the 4 Grand Slam tournaments through out the year. This is the last year the

Last year's winner was Caroline Wozniacki who used that momentum to win her first major at this year's Australian Open. This year's French Open winner (and year-end #1) is Simona Halep but she had to withdraw, giving a chance to Kiki Bertens to become the first Dutch player in over two decades to make the Elite Eight. 2018 Wimbledon champion Angie Kerber and 2018 US Open champion Naomi Osaka round out this year's honor roll of major champions. However, there are two other major champions in the draw, Sloane Stephens, 2017 US Open champ, and Petra Kvitova, 2-time Wimbledon champion.

The final 8 are placed into 2 groups of 4 each and then play round-robin tournament to identify the top two in each group, who then play elimination semifinals against members from the other group to reach the final.Last year, Wozniacki defeated Venus Williams.

The two groups are:

Red Group

[1] Angelique Kerber

[3] Naomi Osaka

[5] Sloane Stephens

[8] Kiki Bertens

White Group

[2] Caroline Wozniacki

[4] Petra Kvitova

[6] Elina Svitolina

[7] Karolina Pliskova

The Red Group in my opinion is the tougher group. Interestingly, Steohens has the head-to-head edge here, while Kvitova has the edge in the White Group (these are problematic names, by the way, why not use names of famous former champions, like the men do?).

I predict that Wozniacki and Kvitova will emerge from the White Group and Stephens and Osaka will emerge from Red Group. Singapore is a relatively slow indoor hard court, which I would give a slight edge to Kvitova overall.

Tuesday, September 25, 2018

TENNIS TUESDAY: Laver Cup Goes To Europe Again; Osaka Impresses In Japan; Thiem Wins On 3rd Surface; Nadal Out Until London

LAVER CUP PART DEUX: EUROPE BEATS THE WORLD AGAIN
The second edition of the Laver Cup took place in Chicago last weekend and the result was the same as the first year in Prague. Led by Roger Federer (who has an ownership stake in the event), Team Europe defeated Team World. This time Team Europe featured two of the BIg 4: Federer and Novak Djokovic, who played doubles together (but lost) to the inspired team of Jack Sock and John Isner. Sock showed why he is considered the best doubles player in the world by winning all 3 doubles matches he played for Team World.

OSAKA IMPRESSES BY CONTINUING WIN STREAK AFTER MAJOR WIN
2018 US Open champion Naomi Osaka continued her win streak to 10 matches, getting to the final of the Toray Pan Pacific Open before losing to Karolina Pliskova 6-4 6-4.

DOMINIC THIEM WINS INDOOR HARDCOURT TITLE
World #8 Dominic Thiem of Austria won his first indoor hardcourt title in St. Petersburg over the weekend, by defeating Martin Klizan 6-3 6-1. It was Thiem's third title of 2018, in a year in which he reached his first major final in Paris (losing to Rafael Nadal).

NADAL PULLS THE CORD ON THE ASIAN SWING
World #1 Nadal put his top ranking in jeopardy by announcing he would miss the fall indoor swing through Asia, presumably nursing his body to try and make a run at the World Tour Finals in London

Thursday, September 06, 2018

2018 US OPEN: Women's Semifinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the US Open for 2018. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 1 of 2 women's semifinals. This year I have correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I will also have a prediction for the men's semifinals.

Serena Williams (USA) [17] vs. Anastasja Sevastova (LAT) [19] Sloane Stephens (USA) [3]. I thought that this semifinal would be an all-American affair, with defending champion Sloane Stephens prevailing over Sevastova and Serena Williams enacting revenge on Karolina Pliskova. My second prediction came true, but Sloane did not fulfill her side of the bargain. Last year Sevastova and Stephens had played a wild match, with the American coming from down a break in the 3rd set to eventually win. It was expected that with her increased confidence, Stephens would win more easily. Sevastova upended that narrative early, using all her spin and slices to confuse and frustrate Stephens and took the first set 6-1. Sloane came back in the second set but ultimately lost that one 6-4. She is the type of player who can frustrate Serena if she is not playing well, but if Serena's power game components (serve, deep groundstrokes and facile movement) are intact then she should be able to weather the storm. A player with excessive guile like Sevastova uses the opponents power against them, but can still be blasted off the court by a combination of power and accuracy. I suspect that will happen today, but not as easily as some would think. The two have never played before, so Serena may not really take the threat seriously, but you don't get to a major semifinal by luck, and Sevastova always plays her best tennis in New York. However, one can't underestimate the mental aspect of the occasion. Sevastova is playing in her first major semifinal, while Serena is playing in her 12th in New York and 36th in her career (4th all-time). PREDICTION: Williams.

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [20] vs. Madison Keys (USA) [15]. This should be the more interesting semifinal. Madison Keys is in her second consecutive US Open final, and everyone expects her to win a major sooner rather than later. In fact, some of us that she would win last year when she played "her best friend on tour" (Sloane Stephens) in the final but was overwhelmed mentally by the occasion and the more mature and nuanced play of her opponent. Keys wants another chance to reach a final and actually show that she can play her best tennis in a major occasion. Meanwhile, Naomi Osaka is in her first major semifinal at 20 years old (Keys was still 19 when she made the semifinals of the 2015 Australian Open) and is playing the best tennis of her career. She demolished her quarterfinal opponent by only losing 2 games. In fact, Osaka has only lost 22 games in 5 rounds to get here, by far the lowest of all the semifinalists. As I have said before, individual match results often come down to matchups and here Keys has the edge, having beaten Osaka all 3 times they have played, including an infamous win in 2016 when she was down 1-5 in the 3rd set and came back to snatch the victory in a 3rd set tiebreak. Both players have that match in their minds as they approach this one. I think this will probably also be a 3-set classic, but not as dramatic as that one. PREDICTION: Keys.

Tuesday, September 04, 2018

2018 US OPEN: Women's Quarterfinals Preview

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2018. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I also have a prediction for the men's quarterfinals.

Serena Williams (USA) [17] ~~Simona Halep (ROU) [1]~~ vs. Karolina Pliskova (CZE) [8]. First I would like to recognize Kaia Kanepi, the hard-hitting veteran Estonian who took out my pick for the 2018 US Open title and played a nerveless, entertaining match against Serena Williams in the 4th round on Sunday despite losing the first set 6-0 in under 19 minutes. I believe that was exactly the match Serena needed to prepare her for this showdown with Karolina Pliskova who last beat her on this court just two years ago, in the 2016 US Open semifinals, just a few rounds after beating Venus Williams. last meeting in Stuttgart this year and they also split their 2 hard court matches. I saw Pliskova overwhelm Ash Barty the round before and she actually moves better than I expected (she's no Lindsay Davenport!) But Serena hates to lose to players in consecutive matches so she will be well prepared for this match. In some sense, her tough draw may actually have helped her raise the level of her game, which is approaching the level she was at pre-pregnancy. It's somewhat surprising these two have only played twice, so Serena has not really been active on the WTA tour as Pliskova became World #1 (briefly) and remains ensconced in the Top 10. As others have noted, one blaring hole in Serena's comeback to the tour this year has been her inability to win against Top 10 players this year and Pliskova will be her first she will be facing in New York. Despite that, I think Serena will find a way to reach yet another semifinal in New York. PREDICTION: Williams.

Anastasja Sevastova (LAT) [16] ~~Elina Svitolina (UKR) [4]~~ vs. Sloane Stephens (USA) [3]. This is a rematch of last year's quarterfinal which was quite a barnburner. Stephens had to come back from 1-3 down in the final set. Sevastova clearly plays her best tennis in New York and is completely unafraid of big stages. I saw her demolish the #7 seed Elina Svitolina in the relative obscurity of the Grandstand court on Saturday (winning 6-0 in the final set). We are no longer surprised by Stephens success in big matches, as her World #3 ranking and 2 major finals in the last 12 months have demonstrated. How the defending champ takes care of someone who gave her so much trouble last year will tell us a lot about whether Stephens will be able to defend her title as she most likely will face the ultimate test in Serena Williams. I believe she will beat Sevastova, but I don't think it's going to be easy. PREDICTION: Stephens.

Carla Suárez Navarro (ESP) [30] ~~Maria Sharapova (RUS) [22]~~ vs. Madison Keys (USA) [15]. It's a quirk of fate that Suárez Navarro's birthday falls in early September, so she has often had to play very important matches in her career on this date. 5 years ago when she turned 25 she famously lost to Serena Williams without winning a single game. Things did not look good when she was scheduled to play Maria Sharapova at night in Arthur Ashe stadium, where the 5-time major champion was 23-0. However, Suárez Navarro was undeterred and although it was not a pretty match (both players were serving horrendously) it was quite entertaining. The Spaniard is mostly known for her clay court prowess but she has reached multiple quarterfinals at all the slams but Wimbledon. She has a one-handed backhand and is a great mover. The result was that she was able to end Sharapova's streak and dismiss the Russian in straight sets. Her opponent will be another big hitting, big serving player who moves a bit better: Madison Keys. Keys continued her domination of Dominika Cibulkova who looked a bit tired after her upset of Angie Kerber on Saturday in three sets. The fact that Keys is undefeated against Cibulkova is mysterious; the Slovak is too good a mover to be blasted off the court, but typically this is what happens in their matches, because Cibulkova likes to do that to her opponents, and with Keys she faces someone who goes for broke even earlier than she does. Keys is 3-0 against each of the players she could face to reach her second consecutive US Open final: Suárez Navarro, Osaka or Tsurenko. Will she do better dealing with the mental expectations of success this year than last year? I hope so. PREDICTION: Keys.

Naomi Osaka (JPN) [20] vs. Lesia Tsurenko (UKR). It looks like 2018 may finally be the year for the breakout by the biracial 20-year-old Naomi Osaka into the big leagues of women's tennis. She won Indian Wells in a battle of the youngsters by defeating Daria Kasatkina (and a bevy of Top 10 players). However the rest of her season has been pretty quiet until reaching New York where she has been making a lot of noise by cutting through the draw like a scythe, losing only 7 games in the first three rounds. In the 4th round she faced a fellow youngster, 20-year-old Aryna Sabalenka who has been the hottest player on tour for most of the American summer hard court season. The two played a see-saw match which involved multiple breaks of serve and swings of momentum in the deciding set and ended on a double fault. (Happily I was in the stands at Louis Armstrong watching with delight.) The tennis was tension-filled because both players knew that they would have to face an unseeded player in their quarterfinal to reach the 2018 US Open semifinal. It looked that opponent would be 19-year-old lefty Marketa Vondrousova from Czech Republic but somehow 30-year-old Lesia Tsurenko was able to battle back and survive the brutal sun and humidity yesterday on the Grandstand court to deny the youngster. I don't think she'll be able to do that again. PREDICTION: Osaka.

Thursday, July 12, 2018

2018 WIMBLEDON: Women's Semifinals Preview (and Predictions)

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. I will also predict this year's men's semifinals.

Jelena Ostapenko (LAT) [12] vs. Angelique Kerber (GER) [11]. This should be a great match; the two major champions have never met before on the WTA tour! Kerber played one of the best matches of the tournament in her straight sets win against Daria Kasatkina. Ostapenko has reached her second career semifinal (first at Wimbledon) by not dropping a set and blasting winners into the corners over and over again. Can she continue to do this against one of the great defensive players in the game? We shall see. My default position is usually that great offense wins against great defense, which would indicate Ostapenko has the better chance to reach her first Wimbledon final but I just think that Kerber has shown that she has what it takes to get to major finals, having reached three of them in the same year (2016), winning two, just two years ago. However, she hasn't face Ostapenko before, so maybe all our expectations need to change. PREDICTION: Kerber.

Julia Goerges (GER) [13] vs Serena Williams (USA) [25]. These two played a rather good match at the French Open just a few weeks ago and many of us were actually surprised Serena was able to come away with the win because it demonstrated just how quickly she was returning to a high level of play. Goerges has become one of the top players on tour; she reached the Top 10 this spring has been hovering just out of that circle for the last few months. But appearing in the Wimbledon semifinal is the first real tangible result of her rise in the rankings to show itself at the majors. I think it is very likely the occasion of being there will provide enough of an impediment to her playing er best tennis that it will make what should be a tough matchup for Serena not as complicated as one would expect. PREDICTION: Serena.