The Mad Professah Lectures

FOGNINI WINS FIRST MASTERS SERIES SHIELD IN MONTE CARLO
Amazingly, the flamboyant and talented Fabio Fognini, 31,  won his first ATP Masters series event in Monte Carlo by following up his stunning defeat of Rafael Nadal with a relatively tight 6-3 6-4 win over Dusan Lajovic who beat the person who took out Djokovic the round before. Lajovic became the lowest seeded player in Monte Carlo in 18 years while Fognini became the first Italian player to win the Monte Carlo tournament in 50 years, and only the fourth player to win the tournament in the last 15 years since Nadal has won it 11 times, Djokovic twice, and Stan Wawrinka once (2014). It was  aoyhood dream for Fognini, who was born a short 40-minute drive away in San Remo, just over the border in Italy and often visited the famous tennis club as a youngster.


DJOKOVIC AND NADAL SUFFER SHOCK CLAY COURT LOSSES
In Monte Carlo, the two best players in the world, #1 Novak Djokovic and #2 Rafael Nadal both suffered shock upsets to start  their clay court season. Djokovic lost to Daniil Medvedev in the Monte Carlo quarterfinals in a tough 3-set match, while Nadal lost what he called "his worst clay court match in 14 years" to Fabio Fognini in the semifinals 6-4 6-2. Nadal was down 5-0 in the second set with Fognini serving for a bagel set before staging a mini-comeback that was ultimately unsuccessful.


FED CUP SEMIFINALS: FRA DEFEATS ROU 3-2, AUS DEFEATS BLR 3-2
Two exciting Fed Cup semifinals were played this weekend, with France utlasting Romania despite some heroics from Simona Halep to win 3-2 and Ash Barty continuing to drag her squad over the finish line, this time, against Belarus. In November France will face Australia down under!

Angelique Kerber (GER) [11] vs Serena Williams (USA) [25]

Here are my predictions for the women's final at the Wimbledon Championships for 2018. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals, correctly predicted 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, and 2 of 2 women's semifinals. Last year I incorrectly predicted Venus Williams would defeat Garbine Muguruza. 

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs. Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4]

This is my prediction post for the women's final at the 2016 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would defeat Lucie Safarova  to win her 20th major title. This year I have correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals, 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 2 women's semifinals.

Below is my review of the women's semifinals and my preview of the women's final.

Serena Williams (USA) [1] d. Kiki Bertens (NED) 7-6(7) 6-4.  It wasn't pretty but Serena Williams was able to end Kiki Bertens match win streak at 12. Despite starting off the match disastrously by serving a double fault on break point in the very first game. Bertens was able to nurse her 1-break lead for most of the first set but Serena finally got serious and was able to break back to level everything at 5-all when not doing so would have resulted in losing the set. They then both held serve to reach the tiebreak. Serena was very tough on breakpoints, saving 6 of 7 breakpoints in the first set, including a set point. After jumping to a 5-2 lead in the tiebreak, Serena appeared to relax a bit and Bertens won five of the next six points to earn a second set point at 6-7. However, Bertens ended up losing the last three points of the tiebreaker to lose the first set. The Dutch player's movement was clearly hampered by a left thigh injury, which Serena exploited by deploying drop shots which Bertens several times refused to even try for. However, Serena was clearly not playing at 100% either, with her movement hampered by a hip adductor injury. The second set was pretty straight forward with Serena breaking in the 7th game to go up 4-3 and then held serve to go up 5-3. Despite having three breakpoints that were match points, Serena was unable to finish the match, but was able to serve it out relatively easily in the 10th game, winning the second set 6-4.

Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4] d. Samantha Stosur (AUS) [21] 6-2 6-4. As I predicted, despite Stosur having won their one previous meeting (which was on clay),  Muguruza was able to come through in this match. However, even I did not expect her to blast past the 2010 French Open finalist to a 6-2 5-2 lead. It's true that she got nervous when she served for the match the first time but as a 22-year-old this is not surprising. The main point is that she  was able to serve out the match on her second try and reach her 2nd major final out of the last four she competed in. That's a pretty impressive record.

Serena Williams (USA) [1] vs.  Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4]. This is a mouth-watering match up for the French Open final. These are clearly the two best players at this year's clay court major. For the first time, Serena is appearing in the French Open final in two consecutive years, and she has a chance to repeat as champion and win her 22nd major title. With most opponents it is irrelevant what  they do, the match is on Serena's racquet. If she plays her best (or even 75% of her best) it is usually enough to allow her to win most matches. This is not the case against Muguruza. It was just two years ago that the young Spaniard embarrassed Serena by handing her worst loss in a major of her career: a 6-2 6-2 drubbing. Serena addressed that loss in her post-match interview after her win over Bertens, saying that that loss made her a better player, because it pointed out some gaps in her game that needed to be addressed.

It's unfortunate that Serena is not at 100%, but I think that will make her mentally tougher to beat, and since she is so physically gifted, that playing at 80% she should still be able to beat Muguruza. However, unlike the last time they met (in the 2015 Wimbledon final), I don't think Serena can count on her opponent getting nervous and blowing a lead this time. The fact that Muguruza has beaten Serena on this court before means that Serena will give her the proper amount of respect that she deserves. There's no question in my mind if Serena plays her best tennis and Muguruza plays her best tennis, Serena will win. However, it is unlikely that BOTH players will be playing their best tennis at the same time.

I expect Serena to win this match up, primarily because she doesn't want to lose two  consecutive major finals (l. 2016 Australian Open to Angelique Kerber) but I am a fan of Muguruza's and will be happy to see her win a major as well. That being said, I would prefer to see Serena silence all disputes about whether she is the greatest of all time by tying Steffi Graf's record of 22 major singles titles.

MadProfessah's pick: Serena.

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinal matches at the 2016 French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I correctly predicted 4 of 4 men's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals. I will also do a preview of the men's semifinals.

Serena Williams [1] vs Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [8] Kiki Bertens (NED).  Can anyone stop Kiki? The 24-year-old Dutch phenom had never made it into the second week of a slam and is now just one match away from playing for a Grand Slam title! It's shocking to think that Kiki Bertens has been more impressive en route to the semifinal then the World #1, but in some sense that is true. Bertens beat Angelique Kerber in the first round but also has taken several other prominent scalps along the way: #15 Madison Keys, #29 Daria Kasatkina and #8 Timea Bacsinszky. In comparison, Serena has only played two seeded players #26 Kiki Mladenovic and #18 Elina Svitolina. On the other hand, Serena leads their brief head-to-head 1-0, having won a surprisingly close encounter at the 2015 US Open. Presumably Serena will take this match seriously since she sees the good players that Bertens has dismissed. Even so, I will still be astonished if Serena does not reach her 4th French Open final (she is 3-1 in Roland Garros semifinals and 3-0 in Roland Garros finals). I'm sure Serena is quite happy that  she's playing Kiki Bertens instead of her sister Venus (as the draw had initially indicated). Mad Professah's Pick: S. Williams.

Samantha Stosur (AUS) [21] vs Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4] . These two have only played once before, but it was on clay (in Madrid), and Stosur won that match 6-1 in the third. Muguruza's ascension to the #3 ranking in the World after her dreamlike run to the Wimbledon final was not unexpected, but it was surprising that it happened on grass and not a hard court. But the Venezuelan-born 22-year-old who plays for Spain and has trained on clay in her formative years was always expected to be competing for majors and the #1 ranking at some point and it looks like those days have arrived. The 32-year-old Australian has had excellent success in Paris, having reached the semifinals four times in her career (1-2 record) but there is a reason why Muguruza is seeded #4 compared to Stosur's #21 at this year's tournament. Even though Stosur is a 2-time major finalist, she is not as mentally tough as her opponent, as their different WTA tour final records (Stosur is 8W-15L while Muguruza is 2W-3L) reflect. I believe that will be the difference that leads the young Spaniard to her second major final in as many years. MadProfessah's prediction: Muguruza.

Here are my predictions for the 2016 women's quarterfinals and remaining Round of 16 matches at the French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's round of 16 matches and 2 of 2 women's quarterfinals completed so far. 
Serena Williams [1] vs Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP) [12] Yulia Putintseva (KAZ).  I expected that Serena would be facing the talented Spaniard instead of the 21-year-old fireplug from Kazakhstan. Serena is playing in her 10th quarterfinal at Roland Garros while Putintseva, 13 years her junior, is playing in her first. The two have met twice before, and although clay is the youngster's best surface she has yet to win a set against the World #1 and it is doubtful that will have changed after their match on Thursday. Mad Professah's Pick: S. Williams.

Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [8] vs Madison Keys (USA) [15] Kiki Bertens (NED). This was another surprise match up because I expected the big hitting Keys to be able to dismiss the white-hot Bertens. Despite my affection and respect for Venus Williams I  didn't really think she  had very much of a chance of coming out as a victor against the higher ranked Bacsinszky and I was correct. Bacsinszky was able to reach the semifinal here last year, and this is a very winnable match for the Swiss player to defend those points. In fact, Bacsinszky played Serena very tough in last year's semifinal, and this year she is playing even better, and is yet to lose a set at this year's French Open. I expect she will relish the challenge to face Serena in another high stakes meeting. Mad Professah's pick: Bacsinszky.

 

Here are my predictions for the 2016 women's quarterfinals and remaining Round of 16 matches at the French Open. Last year I correctly predicted 3 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals. I have predicted the men's quarterfinals (and remaining Round of 16 matches) in a separate post.

Tsvetana Pironkova (BUL) Agnieska Radwanska (POL) [2] vs Samantha Stosur (AUS) [21] Simona Halep (ROU) [6]. This was supposed to be a blockbuster quarterfinal of two major finalists and two former World #2 players) but instead they were both upset in matches where they blew commanding leads. Halep lead the first set 5-3 but ended up losing the first set in a tiebreak while Pironkova got blown out in the first set but ended up winning the last two sets despite barely ever holding serve. Stosur is a major champion and has been to a final on clay, despite appearances, her game is actually well suited to the slow clay surface, and her athleticism should make her too much for the talented (but results-starved) Bulgarian to handle. MadProfessah's prediction: Stosur.

Garbine Muguruza (ESP) [4] vs Shelby Rogers (USA) Petra Kvitova (CZE) [10].  Muguruza has looked very strong and is in her 3rd consecutive Roland Garros quarterfinal, playing against the unheralded Shelby Rogers who is playing the tournament of her life. The American's paycheck for reaching the quarterfinal here will be a significant fraction of her entire career earnings to date. She has had to beat THREE seeded players to reach this point, 2-time major champion #10 Petra Kvitova (whom she beat by one of the most remarkable scores of the entire tournament: 6-0 6-7(3) 6-0), #17 Karolina Pliskova and #25 Irinia-Camelia Begu.  The womens tour has been going through a period of  topsy turvy upsets this year, but Shelby Rogers beating Muguruza to reach the French Open semifinals would just about cement concerns that things have gotten out of control. I don't think that's going to happen. MadProfessah's prediction: Muguruza.


Serena Williams [1] vs Elina Svitolina (UKR) [18].  Due to the inclement weather, the top part of the draw, which includes the #1 seed and both Williams sisters is a round behind from where it typically is. However, I think this will only delay not derail, Serena's defense of her French Open crown. That being said, Svitolina is a good young player who has shown herself to be fearless against Serena before. But Serena should be ready for her, and once Serena gets to the business end of a tournament she is tough to beat. That being said, playing one match a day for the next four days in order to win the tournament will be an interesting test of stamina for the G.O.A.T Mad Professah's Pick: S. Williams.

Carla Suarez Navarro (ESP) [12] vs Yulia Putintseva (KAZ) Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [5]. Speaking of fearless competitors, Putintseva is another pint-sized powerhouse in the mode of Dominika Cibulkova without her movement or consistency yet. CSN has far too much game to her 3rd quarterfinal at her most successful major. Mad Professah's pick: Suarez Navarro.

Timea Bacsinszky (SUI) [8] vs Venus Williams (USA) [9]. The one person who was probably not sad about Monday's complete washout of play was 35-year-old Venus Williams. She probably needed the time to recover from having to play two doubles matches on Sunday. However, it's not clear if Venus still has enough game to defeat the wily Swiss player, who last year made the semifinals here and took a set off Serena in that match. If the Venus Williams circa 2003 shows up then it is very possible she could produce yet another all-Williams match-up at a major, (if she wins her quarterfinal match) but oftentimes one of the siblings blinks when this possibility is on the table, and Serena ain't blinking for anybody right now. There's a reason why Bacsinsky is actually higher seeded than Venus, so the American winning would actually be the upset. Mad Professah's pick: Bacsinszky.

Madison Keys (USA) [15] vs Kiki Bertens (NED) Angelique Kerber (GER) [3]. Kiki Bertens is having the tournament of her life, and by reaching the fourth round she clinched her berth on the Dutch Olympic team (she was also one half of the team that eliminated the Williams sisters in doubles). Keys has been having good results on clay, which bodes well for later in the year where the faster surfaces should make her powerful game even more effective. The fact that Bertens took out the reigning Australian Open champion who is also a classic European dirtballer should not be sneezed at, but I think Keys is ready to join the elite at the top of women's tennis, and making a deep run here, at her worst surface, would herald that. Mad Professah's pick: Keys.

Defying my predictions and confounding history, Angelique Kerber outlasted Serena Williams 6-4 3-6 6-4 to win her first major title, at the 2016 Australian Open. Serena was aiming to match Steffi Graf's career total of 22 major titles while Kerber was aiming to become the first German player since Graf to win a major title. Serena was 21-4 in major finals and had only ever lost to three women in major finals (Venus Williams, Maria Sharapova and Samantha Stosur). Kerber was match point down in the very first round of the tournament but after coming through that she was able to play her very best tennis calmly and effectively and after getting a dream draw was able to come back from a huge deficit against Victoria Azarenka and continue that momentum to reach her first major final against Serena and win it! Now that's two consecutive majors where we have had first time slam winners. First Flavia Pennetta did it in New York last September and now 28-year-old Kerber is the champion in Melbourne.

How The Match Was Won
Serena had not dropped a set going into her 7th Australian Open final, the first time she had ever done that, and since she had won all previous six finals in Melbourne this was viewed as a positive omen. However, what happened when the final began was that Serena started nervously and was broken quickly. This was a slight surprise, but since it had also happened against Maria Sharapova most fans didn't worry and fully expected Serena to right the ship quickly. She did come back and evened the set at 3-all. Then surprisingly, Serena got broken again and Kerber's improved serve was able to carry her to take the first set in the face of  nearly two dozen unforced errors from her opponent and (ominously) no aces.

Surprisingly, we then discovered that Serena has only won 2 of 6 grand slam finals where she loses the first set, although she had never previously lost a 3-set major final (8-0). So, the key thing to do is win the first set when playing Serena in a final (because it usually means that she is having a very bad day and may actually go down in straight sets).

Serena finally started serving a bit better in the second set, but she never really punished Kerber's second serve like it deserved. However, she was able to get a break early and rushed out to a 4-1 lead, which she was able to maintain to take the middle set 6-3. (Kerber did well to hold after being down 2-5, 30-all to force Serena to serve out the second set and earn the right to serve first in the 3rd.)

The third set was one of the most compelling sets of tennis on the women's game in a really, really long time. Kerber hit 12 winners and only 3 unforced errors while Serena hit 19 winners and 18 unforced errors. Serena fell down 0-2 but was able to battle back to even the score at 2-all and after Kerber held the two played an intense 10-minute, 5-deuce game that Serena lost to go down 2-4 in the final set. Kerber was again able to hold despite not serving well (she was 56% first serves in for the match and won 60% of first serves points and 58% of second serve points, all stats in which she surpassed Serena today.)

Amazingly, despite being down 2-5 in the final set, Serena was able to come back and get back on serve, and she had a game point serving at 4-5, 40-30 but she missed that first serve and hit a very weak second serve which Kerber pummeled down the line for a winner to get to deuce. After a long rally, Serena went for a crosscourt winner but hit the top of the tape and set up championship point. Serena lost this point on a volley error (it was an easy volley that sailed well over the baseline).

Overall, a really great match. Serena was nervous, and frankly had the wrong game plan to come to net in an attempt to win points. Kerber was too fast and her lefty spin makes volleying difficult and it showed with Serena only making 15 of 32 net points. However, I'm happy to see Serena so fot so early in the year and I'm confident that if she stays healthy all year Serena will still reach Steffi's total of 22 titles this year (and probably end her career with 24 or 25). It takes the pressure off the rest of her year, so she should be extra motivated to get 22 in either Paris, Wimbledon (more likely) or New York (in addition to more Gold in Rio).

Kerber will move up to World #2 when the rankings come out on Monday, bumping down Simona Halep to #3 and elbowing out Sharapova out of the Top 5 as Radwanska and Muguruza round out the top 5. Amusingly, Pennetta is still in the Top 10 at #7 even though she retired at the end of 2015! I think it will be tough to end the year at #2 but I do expect her to remain in the Top 5 and to see Azarenka return to the Top 5 by the end of the year.

In the first ever all-Italian major women singles final, Flavia Pennetta defeated Roberta Vinci 7-6(4) 6-2 (as I predicted) to win the 2015 U.S. Open. The #26 seed completed her fairy tale run at the last major tournament of the year by beating one of her best friends and compatriots just one day after Vinci had achieved the biggest upset in tennis history by ending Serena Williams' streak of grand slam matches won at 33. Pennetta had to beat the #2 seed Simona Halep in the semifinals, #5 seed Petra Kvitova in the quarterfinals and 2011 U.S. Open champion Samantha Stosur in the 4th round. Her opponent in the final was one of her best friends, someone she has known since they were both 10 years old and were roommates for four years in Rome. Their camaraderie could be seen after the match in the warm embrace at the net and their interaction during the trophy presentation.

Pennetta stunned the tennis world by announcing her retirement during the trophy ceremony, by saying that she had "made a big decision a month ago" and that "this is how I say goodbye to tennis."
She later clarified in  post-match press conference that this was her last U.S. Open but that she would continue playing until the end of the year. She became the oldest first-time Grand Slam winner ever, and also the person who played the most major tournaments (49) before capturing a title. (The previous record holder was Marion Bartoli who had played 47 majors before winning Wimbledon in 2013; she decided to retire within  a month of that victory.)

By winning this match, Pennetta will receive $3.3 million, almost 30% of her previous career total of $10.5 million. In the stands was not only the Prime Minister of Italy who flew from Italy through the night, but also Pennetta's fiance' Fabio Fognini (ATP player currently ranked #32 who made a big splash at the tournament himself by eliminating Rafael Nadal in the 3rd round.)

Pennetta will move to World #8 in the rankings on Monday and could possibly qualify for the year-end championships in Singapore. Even though Serena's bid for the first calendar-year Grand Slam ended yesterday against Vinci, she tweeted out her support for Flavia's win and reaction to the retirement news.

Here are my predictions for the women's quarterfinals at the US Open for 2015. Last year I correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and correctly predicted 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals.

Day 2 of the 2015 Australian Open featured appearances by several Americans, led by Venus Williams and Serena Williams, who both won their first round matches in straight sets, losing only 4 matches each.

Other notable winners on Day 2 were Kei Nishikori, Milos Raonic, Feliciano Lopez (10-8 in the 5th against American Dennis Kudla), Gael Monfils on the men's side. On the women's side local favorites Samantha Stosur and Casey Dellacqua won their first round match, as did tournament favorites Aggie Radwanska and Petra Kvitova won while there were a few more surprising upsets with good hard-court players Jelena Jankovic(15), Andrea Petkovic(13) and  Flavia Pennetta(12) all succumbing to much lower-ranked opponents.

In the two popcorn matches of the day, Vika Azarenka dispatched Sloane Stephens in straight sets, while young American lefty Taylor Townsend acquitted herself well in her loss to Caroline Wozniacki.

Here are my predictions for the women's semifinals at the US Open for 2014. Last year I correctly predicted  4 of 4 women's quarterfinals, 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. This year I have correctly predicted 2 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 3 of 4 men's quarterfinals at the U.S. Open.

Maria Sharapova (RUS) [7] vs Simona Halep (ROU) [4]

The 2014 French Open women's final will be between Maria Sharapova of Russia and Simona Halep  of Romania. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would beat Sharapova in the final. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals, 2 of 4women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. Here are my predictions for the women's singles championship match at Roland Garros this year.

How Did They Get Here? Women's Semifinals Review
Maria Sharapova (RUS) [7] d. Eugenie Bouchard (CAN) [18] 4-6 7-5 6-2. For the third match in a row in this year's tournament, Maria Sharapova had to come back from a set down in order to reach victory. She did it against Sam Stosur in the 4th round (winning the deciding set 6-0), against Garbine Muguruza (winning the decider 6-1) and then against Bouchard, who put up the most resistance. If Bouchard plays the way she played against Sharapova on regular tour-level matches she will soon be permanently ensconced in the WTA Top 10. The key to this match was the second set, where Sharapova blew a 5-2 lead, managing to double fault on not one but three set points. She eventually won the set on an error from Bouchard, who had failed to capitalize on the momentum gained from getting back to even to score an advantage in the set. The third set was actually a bit closer than the 6-2 score indicaes, but basically Sharapova started moving better so that her groundstrokes were heavier which drew far more errors from the young Canadian. This (unlike the Stosur match, and possibly the Muguruza one) was not a match that Sharapova's opponent lost, it was one that Sharapova reached out and grabbed.
Simona Halep (ROU) [4] d. Andrea Petkovic (GER) [28] 6-2 7-6(4) . Halep simply has too much game for a great athlete like Petkovic to handle. Clay court tennis rewards the better mover in most match-ups (though overwhelming advantages in firepower can change that inequality, c.f. Petkovic's win over Sara Errani in the quarterfinal 6-2 6-2). The tournament's remaining top seed ran away with the first set in under 25 minutes and was cruising in the second when she got tight and Petkovic got loose and a very competitive set ensued. But as the score revealed, Halep was still a little bit better when it really counted. It would have been useful to see Halep play a 3rd set in an important match. The very fact that she has won all 6 rounds in straight sets may harm her chances against Sharapova, because Halep does not have the familiarity with adversity that Sharapova has and may not know how to respond.

Day 1 of the 2014 Australian Open is complete and already some significant upsets have occurred. The most significant to me (personally) is technically not an upset since the higher ranked player won. 7-time major champion Venus Williams lost to Ekaterina Makarova[23] 2-6 6-4 6-4 in the 1st round.

Other notable first round losses were Petra Kvitova[6], Sara Errani[7] and Tommy Haas[12].

However, Serena Williams[1], Victoria Azarenka[2], Li Na[4] all won. Other notable wins on the women's side of the draw were by Samantha Stosur[17], Ana Ivanovic[14], Simona Halep[11], Caroline Wozniacki[10], Angelique Kerber[9] and Jelena Jankovic[8].

Novak Djokovic[2], David Ferrer[3], Roger Federer[6],Tomas Berdych[7],Richard Gasquet[8], Stanislas Wawrinka[9], Jo-Wilfried Tsonga[10] and Milos Raonic[11] all won. John Isner[12] retired after losing the first two sets with a bad ankle against lefty Martin Klizan.

Australian doubles specialist Casey Dellacqua came out of the closet when her partner Amanda delivered her son Blake last summer. Dellacqua teamed up with fellow Aussie Ashleigh Barty to reach the finals of three of the four Grand Slam tournaments (Australian, Wimbledon and US Open) in 2013 but there was almost no media reaction to the fact that this elite sports figure is openly gay.

Dellacqua is quoted about the (lack of) press reaction by Sports Illustrated:

“It’s not news for the majority of people in our lives,” Dellacqua told Fairfax Media. “We’ve got a lot of great family and friends, a lot of lovely people around us. It hasn’t been too much of an issue to be honest with you, I haven’t had too much reaction or interest. I’m not sure what to say because I haven’t been asked until now. I’ve done a couple of interviews and it hasn’t been much of a big issue.” Nor should it, Dellacqua believes. “I feel so. I don’t feel like I’m any different,” she said.

[...]

“No, it’s not like it’s been a big secret or anything,” she said. “I’ve just gone about my life and am very proud of my family. Someone had asked me why I hadn’t played and that was the reason. There wasn’t much more too it, it is the way it is. Like everyone else’s relationships, it’s not too much of a big deal, to be honest.”

Hopefully, Casey will serve as a role model for other players on the WTA tour to feel comfortable enough to come out proudly about their sexual orientation. I'm talking to YOU, Samantha Stosur!

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [2] vs. Serena Williams (USA) [1]

This is my prediction post for the women's final at the 2013 US Open. This year I correctly predicted 2 of 2 women's semifinals, 2 of 2 men's semifinals, 4 of 4 women's quarterfinals and 2 of 4 men's quarterfinals. Last year I correctly predicted Serena Williams would defeat Victoria Azarenka in the women's final and that Andy Murray would defeat Novak Djokovic in the men's final.

How They Got Here: Women's Semifinals Preview
Serena Williams (USA) [1] d. Na Li (CHN) [5], 6-0 6-3. This was expected to be one of the best matches of the tournament, or at least the toughest test that Serena would face before reaching the final. Li Na has been one of the Top 4 hard court players on tour for the last 3 years, reaching 2 Australian Open finals in that period (losing in 3 sets in 2011 to Kim Clijsters and in 2013 to Azarenka). She would not be intimidated by Serena's powerful groundstrokes and could match her firepower. However, what Li Na was not prepared for was the intense focus and crisp footwork displayed by Serena and instead of a repeat of the two close sets they played in Cincinnati, the result was two blowout sets. The second set was actually closer than it looks from the score. Serena had multiple match points at 2-5 but was unable to finish off her opponent. She also had a slight scare while serving for the match at 5-3 but she was able to do it, despite getting emotional at the end.

Victoria Azarenka (BLR) [2] d. Flavia Pennetta (ITA), 6-4 6-2.  This was one of the ugliest grand slam semifinals in recent history. There were 13 service breaks in the 18 games played. The serving was atrocious by both players, with Azarenka having her serve broken a shocking five times only to be outdone by Pennetta losing her serve eight times (she held serve once). Both players'  groundstrokes were fine and they had some excellent rallies but ultimately both players won more points due to errors than winners. Regardless, Azarenka displayed her mental toughness and was able to outlast Pennetta through the rocky first set when neither player was playing well. Then in the second set she was able to raise her game (slightly) while Pennetta's lowered as she started to realize she was not going to win and began to panic.

Who Will Win?: Women's Final Preview
 Unsurprisingly, this year's final is a repeat of last year's final, which was won by Serena. Azarenka and Williams are clearly two of the best hard court players on the WTA tour. Azarenka has the best record on hard courts this year (31-1 to ) and has defeated Williams on two important occasions this year, in the finals of Doha and Cincinnati , respectively: 7-6(6), 2-6, 6-3 and 2-6, 6-2, 7-6(6). Despite the fact that Serena has won 12 of 15 meetings overall, Azarenka is clearly getting closer and closer to Serena and even though she lost last year's final (despite serving for the match 5-3 in the third set!) she now knows that she does have the game to beat her. In fact, some experienced tennis experts think that Azarenka will win this match, despite the fact that Serena is 16-4 in major finals and 6-0 in 3-set major finals.

I think that Serena really wants this title and is playing well enough to win it. If the match does remain close, I think that Azarenka will pull it out. (For example, if the match goes to a third set tiebreaker the world #2 will win). However, I find it very unlikely the match is going to be that close. Azarenka is simply not serving well enough to stay with the way that Serena is playing now and I believe that at least one of the sets will be a blow out (one break or two-break lead) while the other will be much closer. Azarenka has 31 double faults this tournaments (compared to Serena's 10) and only 10 aces compared to Serena's 25 aces. Serena's serve has been broken twice in her last three matches while Azarenka has been broken 15 times during the same number of rounds. It is possible that Serena might lose a set, but as long as she stays ahead or even on serve I think she will win her 17th major title.

Serena Williams is the World #1, the #1 seed and the defending champion as the 2013 US Open approaches. The last time Serena defended a major title was in 2010, when she did it at Wimbledon and the Australian Open. Neither time was she the #1 player in the world. The last (first, and only) time she defended a title while being World #1 was in 2003 when she defended her 2002 Wimbledon title (beating sister Venus in both final matches).

So, although she is the prohibitive favorite to win in New York on Sunday September 8th, there is a fairly good chance that she won't. In terms of hard court records this year, 2013 Australian Open champion and #2 seed Victoria Azarenka has the better win-loss percentage, with 25-1, while Serena is at 29-3 (with two of those losses coming to Vika, in tough 3-setters in the finals of Doha and Cincinnati and the third loss coming to Sloane Stephens in the Australian Open quarterfinals). The only player to beat the Belarussian on  a hard court this year is 2011 US Open champion Samantha Stosur, who did it in Carlsbad.

Vika and Serena and a reprise of last year's final is the generally expected result. However, if form holds, the draw indicates that the quarterfinal match-ups would be: Williams versus Angelique Kerber, Agnieska Radwanska versus Li Na, Caroline Wozniacki versus Sara Errani and Petra Kvitova versus Azarenka. However, Williams starts off her title defense playing a fellow grand slam champion in Francesca Schiavone and could also face Magdalena Rybarikova in the 3rd round and Stephens in the 4th. If she gets through those contests I think she will most definitely make it to the final for the 3rd consecutive year.

Azarenka, on the other hand, has a much easier draw and really only has to worry about either Kvitova or Stosur in her quarter and  in the unlikely event that Wozniacki or Errani make it that far, her semifinal should be relatively easy. The only other potential big hitter that could have caused her trouble is Maria Sharapova, who withdrew with a shoulder injury. That section of the draw will almost certainly have a surprise semifinalist, who should end up being dismissed by Azarenka.

First round matches to watch: Heather Watson versus red-hot Simona Halep, Madison Keys versus Jelena Jankovic, Monica Puig versus Alisa Kleybanova, Sabine Lisicki versus Vera Dushevina, and Kirsten Flipkens versus 7-time major champion Venus Williams.