Antecipando o Futuro: Uma Estratégia para Inovações Radicais
Antecipando o Futuro: Uma Estratégia para Inovações Radicais
Antecipando o Futuro: Uma Estratégia para Inovações Radicais
- a business perspective
17st of Mar, Sao Paulo Dr. Beate Schlageter Strategic Marketing Corporate Research & Technologies Siemens AG beate.schlageter@siemens.com
Seminrio Rumos da inovao no contexto empresarial brasileiro Diamond Tower Condomnio Rochaver
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Content
Part 2: Example of Picture of the Future Project: Smart Sustainable Cities in 2030 -2050
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Siemens is an integrated technology company CT, the corporate R&D department, is driving integration
Sectors / Divisions
Energy
Healthcare
Roughly 18,000 software engineers 178 R&D locations in >30 countries around the world 8,600 inventions in fiscal 2011 53,300 active patents
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Key Customers
Other Industries
Competitors
Start-up / VCs
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November 25th 2011 | Michael Lipka | Siemens AG VDMA Bayern | Mitgliederversammlung 2011
Building
Information & Communications Healthcare Services Energy Transportation Automation & Control
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Trends
Energy
CURRENT BUSINESS
via roadmaps
Industry
Healthcare
Economy
Ecology
Infrastructure & Cities
short term
Extrapolation
Hypot
heses
Retropolation
Input
Pictures of the Future Trends/Markets Scenarios Business Impact Business Opportunities Technologies
Output
Impact on mainstream business Impact on CT T business Leverage synergies between Group and CT Alignment of CT portfolio Communication tool
Implement
Update the overall long-term innovation strategy Realize new business opportunities Support mid/ long term roadmaps by division
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Trends
Society Technology & Research
Ecology
Policies
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Building Automation
Trend Analysis
Expert Interviews
Scenario
Scenario of the business corresponding domain
Business Impact
Conclusions out of the scenario for the industry type and in turn the specific business environment of Siemens
Technology Roadmap
A technology roadmap documenting the technological feasibility of the scenario.
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Flexible Buildings
380 Trends
13 Trend Cluster
Water Sustainability Quality of Work and Living Space Unobtrusive Safety and Security
Efficient and Safe Movement of People and Goods
Emissions fees Growing social divide Water scarcity Increasing application of renewable energy Reality of Internet of Things Increasing capabilities of smart materials Evolving special economic zones
Ubiquitous Devices Integrated Building Life-cycle Integrated Building Operation Building Clusters <nur fr internen Gebrauch>
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Implementation
Scenario with scenario elements/sub-scenarios Description of impact on business environment Description of impact on Siemens business Verified business opportunities Verified enablers (technologies / business capabilities) Recommendations on main drivers
w ew N Ne
PoF: 100,000 copies, in >100 countries. German, English, Chinese Abridged / adapted versions in French, Portuguese, Russian, Turkish
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Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Picture of the Future - Smart Sustainable City in 2030 - 2050 Trends and Scenarios for Future Life Part in The Crystal
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CURRENT BUSINESS
via roadmaps
Main influencing factors on Rio Potential solutions/levers for city challenges (technologies, business models)
Cities 2030- 2050
Economy
Ecology
short term
medium term
long term
<nur fr internen Gebrauch>
Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Extrapolation
Retropolation
Urbanization The urban share of the population will continue to rise at high speed (8.5 percentage points) and growth will even accelerate compared to the last 20 years (7.8 percentage points). By 2030, 4.9 billion people, or 59% of the world's population, will live in cities.
Need for alternative energy sources Over the next 20 years, primary energy consumption in developing countries will grow about 15 times faster than in developed countries
Water scarcity 1,800 million people will be living in countries or regions with absolute water scarcity by 2025, and twothirds of the world population could be under stress conditions
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IT/IC TECHNOLOGIES
Increasing penetration of IT by digitalization, interconnectivity and virtual technologies Further development of ICT operating systems and semantic web services Increasing application of virtualization and virtual worlds Sensor pervasion and internet of things throughout the environment increases Increasing deployment of eSolutions e.g. public domain apps for gov., admin. and businesses UGC, crowd sourcing and linking of data sources increases Digital natives promote ICT acceptance in daily life
more more partnerships partnerships ICT ICT as as key key enabler/ enabler/ driver driver
increased increased complexity complexity urbanization/demand urbanization/demand for for new newliving living spaces/ spaces/ land land scarcity scarcity
ICT/building ICT/building automa. automa. laws/incentives laws/incentives for for energy energy efficiency efficiency
increasing increasing penetration penetration of of IT IT by by digitalization digitalization sensor sensor pervasion pervasion digital digital natives natives
273 Trends
12 Trend Cluster
remote remote work work places places 24/7 working 24/7 workinglife life drives drives up up stress stress levels levels virtual virtual techs techs
WATER WATER
ENERGY ENERGY
cyber cyber crime crime ubiquitous ubiquitous sensor sensor networks networks
lack lack of of landfill landfill space space scarcity scarcity of of agricultural agricultural land land
growing growing traffic traffic volume/congestions volume/congestions regulation regulation changes changes traffic/mobility traffic/mobility pattern pattern
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increasing increasingmigration migration climate climate change change pervasion pervasion of of ICT ICT technologies increasing technologies increasing energy energy demand/ energy <nur fr internen Gebrauch> demand/ energy individualization // individualization independence independence flexibility flexibility
Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
2050
Information and communication technologies (ICT) constitute the vital network of cities supporting and penetrating most aspect of urban life. Openness of data sources, rapid and flexible development and deployment of apps and services creates an Open Linked Data City. In a Real-Time City, the convergence of data sources, applications and virtual technologies enable fast response and decision support for any situation. In a Participating City, city stakeholders act as prosumers for city data with their ubiquitous digital footprints.
Picture of the Future Smart Sustainable Cities Snapshot: SOCIAL STRUCTURES & VALUES
2050
Global migration leads to social and cultural diversity in urban areas. A structural shift of economic power is based on rising wealth, better education and living standards of middle classes, especially in Asia. Down ageing: live long - stay young Virtual/ICT technologies and highly flexible lifestyle will lead to Access Society influencing human values and traditions. Successful vertical democracy and appreciated social engagement raising communities / cooperative individualism creates new communities Flexible lifestyle and planning
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Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Picture of the Future Smart Sustainable Cities Snapshot: ARCHITECTURE & URBAN MANAGEMENT
2050
Zero emission housing-standard will be mandatory for all new buildings. Building clusters with multi-level infrastructure provide living space, work- and leisure opportunities in close distance. Scalability is achieved via decentralized infrastructures (waste, water, energy). New shapes and materials result in green and highly efficient building constructions optimized for regional climate and environment Quality of live is improved by building (cluster) construction (e.g. daylight concepts), green layers (in/out/between buildings) and improved mobility concepts Recycling of building and city constructions (lifecycle) Multi-purpose infrastructure
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Siemens AG 2012. All rights reserved
Comprehensive Smart Sustainability City Scenario - Leading principles (Dense) city clusters with (dense) nodes Corridors for energy, water, food, goods by centralized supply
Green city layers Combination of holistic and decentralized decision structure Fixed mass transport and flexible/on demand mobility concepts Integrated city districts (advanced, smooth evolved, affordable)
Decentralized infrastructure
Sub-scenarios
Decentralized City
Sensible City
Seamless Mobility
Me X- Lifestyle
Traffic monitoring and combination with air quality/ weather/ energy distribution
Data source from citizens/ involvement of citizens Water quality/ leakage monitoring Monitoring for security of people/goods
Energy harvesting e.g. body heat, step pressure Waste to power/ new logistic concepts in building/ city districts
Sub-SCENARIO 2030 - 2050 SEAMLESS MOBILITY On demand mobility by individual and mass transport
Holistic and intelligent/self organizing traffic management system (forecast, optimization, control) Seamless and intermodal public transportation for people and goods by new services (e.g. door-to-door service and on demand service) Fixes mass transports and high flexible on demand mobility New vehicle concepts for greener and more efficient traffic Always-on-services support flexible lifestyle and convenience (no effort for mobility) mobility Personal assistance Combination of public transport systems for goods/people Mega hubs integrating different traffic systems
To cope with transport demand and environmental challenges, all transport modes need to operate in concert
Technological enablers to address future Complete Mobility solutions Intermodal End-to-End travel - Intermodal real-time information, set-up R&D projects decision support and navigation solutions initiate deep dives for - Individual services for intermodal new expertise door to door travel
Protect our environment
2050
Road
2011
Demand-responsive rail - Real time infrastructure with open Air Sea communication to avoid traffic understand impact on accidents and improve traffic flow skill management - Autonomous e-drive - Car-to-car and car-to-street Alignment of communication roadmaps/innovation Mobility on demand/last mile strategy Facilitate sustainable concepts economic growth - New business models e.g. sharing of e-cars
<nur fr internen Gebrauch>
Lighting