Regional Powers

This paper aims to assess and test the axis shift argument by adopting a political economy perspective. What drives Turkish-Russian bilateral trade and how has it affected the Turkish economy? While a plentitude of qualitative approaches was already employed to investigate Turkish-Russian relations, only few quantitative studies providing statistical evidence were conducted on this issue. The paper seeks to close this gap by employing a multiple regression analysis to reveal the degree and impact of change in Turkey’s bilateral relations, thereby contributing with its comprehensive empirical assessment.

Resumo: Considerando a nova dinâmica geopolítica que se estabelece na América do Sul a partir dos anos 2000, o objetivo deste artigo é examinar a atuação do Brasil como potência regional a partir de evidências que corroboraram esse papel e o exercício de sua liderança regional durante o governo Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (2003-2010). Verifica-se que, apesar de certas limitações e de não ser uma potência inconteste, sua estratégia, sua disposição de assumir uma  posição  como  elo  fortalecedor  dos  processos  de  integração,  seu  engajamento  na  cooperação regional e seus recursos materiais permitiram o exercício da liderança regional pelo país. Por fim, realiza-se uma breve reflexão sobre as condições para o mesmo exercício por parte do Brasil na gestão Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016), inferindo-se que houve traços de continuidade da política externa para a região, mas com menor pró-atividade brasileira em função de mudanças das condições domésticas e internacionais.

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Abstract: Considering the new geopolitical dynamics established in South America from the 2000s, the aim of this article is to examine the role of Brazil as a regional power taking into account evidences and the exercise of its regional leadership during Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva mandate (2003-2010). Despite certain limitations and because it was not an incontestable power in the region, Brazilian’s strategy, willingness to take a position as a strengthening link of regional integration,  its  involvement  in  regional  cooperation  processes  and  its  material  resources  enabled the exercise of Brazilian regional leadership. Finally, the paper offers a brief reflection regarding the conditions of the same role played by Brazil during Dilma Rousseff (2011-2016) mandate, and infers that there was a continuity of Brazilian foreign policy towards the region, although with less proactivity due to changes of domestic and international conditions.

In light of recent Saudi Arabian foreign policy, this article examines the valorization of public diplomacy in regional leadership struggles-a widely neglected topic in discussion on regional powers. Concentrating on regions with distinct power hierarchies, the literature offers nuanced explanations for how already-established regional leaders seek to maintain their position but only limited discussion of how ambitious states seek to assume leadership in the first place. The proposed binary set of coercive and persuasive strategies used by aspirant leaders does not capture the complexities of these regional leadership struggles. This article argues instead that aspirant leaders lacking the power assets to exclusively embark on either strategy become prone to resorting to a strategy mix combining elements of both coercion and persuasion. Because of the inconsistencies arising from applying such antithetical policies, however, public diplomacy significantly gains in importance as a magnifying and balancing tool amid this strategy mix.

At a time of Arab uprisings, many set their eyes on Muslim populated Turkey with its successful economic development and nascent democratic political order, as what the peoples of the region can proceed along in their own transition to democracy. Nevertheless, to what extent Turkey’s model will bear success in transforming the region into a ‘positive peace’ environment , to use the term of Johan Galtung, will highly rely on which of the following ‘regional powerhood’ Ankara will come to pursue: regionally detached, regional dominant or regional hegemon , coining M.Pyrs’ typology. Against this backdrop, this article mainly argues that if only Turkey fills into status of a regional hegemon with the acquisition of the elements of domestic authority and international prestige, Turkey may hope to succeed in creating new normative ties - democracy, human rights, the rule of law, etc. - between Europe and the Middle East, thereby, fostering ‘positive peace’ and stability in the ‘penetrated Middle East as regional hegemon.

This thesis presents a comparative study of Turkish and Japanese foreign policy activities since 2002. By comparing their foreign policies over their activities to become regional power, this thesis aims to look upon the efficiency of those policies in achieving respective country’s aims. Due to the similarities between Turkey and Japan in terms of historical background, political and military situation, Japan’s foreign policy is taken as a reference for comparison. The interest and study of Turkish foreign policy has risen in the past few years due to Turkey’s increasing activism in political field, enhanced influence in its region, most prominently its increasing soft power.
This thesis aims to make a more inclusive study by looking into use of both hard and soft power and events that are surrounding the country.
I focused on Turkish and Japanese foreign policies through their democracy promotion, the use of the financial aid in their foreign policy and their security problems. Also the effects of the hard and soft power on those policies and those policies’ effects on countries’ hard and soft power is taken into account. Rather than simply evaluating the success of those policies, this thesis aimed at elaborating whether those policies yielded the desired results. Using this approach this thesis pointed out some of the reasons of the inefficiency in some policies, and to better evaluated the efficiency of their policies towards in their regional power bid.
Keywords: Turkey, Japan, Turkish Foreign Policy, Japanese Foreign Policy, Regional Powers
Power.

Abstract
Turkey has been generally neglected thus far in most of the studies in IR on power categorizations such as middle or middle range power, regional power and rising/emerging power, despite its rising regional power status in the last decade. This paper attempts to understand Turkey’s regional power together with its rising power status in an integral approach. In doing so, it empirically tests whether, or not, Turkey fits to Daniel Flemes’s regional power category which seems to be proposing a more complete and integral framework through the fulfillment of the four basic preconditions: claim to leadership; possession of necessary power resources (material and ideational); employment of  material, institutional and discursive foreign policy instruments; and  acceptance of leadership by third parties. Based upon these analytical tools, it will discuss the performance of Turkey in creating  a regional impact in its neighboring  regions of the Middle East, the Balkans and the Black Sea and the Caucasus.

Key Words: regional power, rising power, emerging regional power, Turkish foreign policy, foreign policy instruments, power resources.

South Africa is rapidly approaching the end of Jacob Zuma's tenure as president. This report examines South Africa's current diplomatic, economic and other relations and presents a set of broad priorities that could help guide a post-Zuma presidency. Notably, Africa should remain the focus of South Africa's foreign and economic policy, but not to the exclusion of important trading and investment partners.

Regional powers are not always benevolent leaders when it comes to the building of regional institutions. While powerful states – particularly the “new” rising powers – may have a vested interest in regionalism as
a means of projecting influence, regional powers may behave as coercive or benevolent leaders, or alternatively display an absence of leadership altogether. The drivers of varying regional power behavior can be attributed to their competing concerns regarding (economic) power, functional efficiency, international legitimacy, and neopatrimonial networks. This paper explores the varying behavior of Nigeria and South Africa in relation to the institutionalization of free trade areas and regional courts within their respective regions. Nigeria has displayed little leadership in ECOWAS trade integration due to domestic opposition; however, a newly-democratic Nigeria’s search for international legitimacy drove the establishment of the ECOWAS Court of Justice. Likewise, South Africa’s search for legitimacy drove its support for the SADC Tribunal, but the competing demands of different audiences led it to abandon this support. South Africa has also displayed leadership in relation to the SADC Free Trade Area; however, its neighbors perceive it as a self-interested, almost coercive actor. The findings suggest that the motivations for regional powers’ behavior vary across time and policy sectors, and that inconsistent behavior is driven by a change in the priority granted to different drivers.

How do rising powers relate to international institutions? At the same time as rising regional powers from the South emerge as key players in international politics, they confront a highly institutionalised world order established and maintained by and for the United States and its allies. Traditional perspectives identify three major patterns of behaviour for rising states in international institutions: balancing, spoiling, and being coopted. This article uses these perspectives to ask how the redistributive aspirations of three rising regional powers – India, Brazil, and South Africa – impact on international institutions in the fields of trade, money, and security. The findings indicate that there is strong variation across issue areas. Trade provides support for the spoiling perspective, while the areas of money and security exhibit aspects familiar both to the balancing and cooptation perspectives. A broader picture emerges of IBSA states’ general integration into hegemonic norms and being coopted into existing international institutions, but at the same time as balancing the influence of the established powers and reforming these institutions to conform to a more South-oriented, sovereigntist image of world order.

This paper inquires into the effects of an emerging multipolar world on the international institution of regionalism. While IR scholarship has been making a strong case for the regionalization of world politics since the 1990s, the fact that most of the rising powers are also the sole regional powers of their home regions has led some scholars to argue that the advent of multipolarity can only strengthen this general trend toward a more regionalized international order. In this contribution, I challenge these arguments by proposing an alternative way of thinking about how multipolarity is developing. The implications of this interpretation are that the emergence of multipolarity may actually generate powerful centrifugal forces within
regions, which would have adverse effects on the known forms of regionalism that regional groupings have been implementing thus far. This applies particularly to the global South, where intraregional economic interdependencies tend to be weak. The proposition is tested by examining empirical findings across several regions and through a case study.

Her ne kadar Çin ekonomisinde 1970'lerden itibaren yaşanan yapısal dönüşüm ve gözlenen ekonomik performans; Çin'in uluslararası sistemde dominant güç olmaya yönelik ilerlediği izlenimi verse de yüksek nüfusunun yarattığı baskı, işsizlik ve iktisadi temelli sorunlar, Çin ekonomisinde kaydedilen ilerlemenin sürdürülebilirliği ve Çin'in süper güç olabilirliği açısından şüphe uyandırmaktadır diyebiliriz. Ancak; sahip olduğu geniş pazar, sunduğu üretim maliyeti avantajları ve dünya ticareti içindeki mevcut konumu, uluslararası sistemde dikkate alınması gereken bir aktör olduğunu gözler önüne sermektedir.
Sahip olduğu potansiyeller kadar bünyesinde barındırdığı engellerin her geçen gün kısır bir döngü haline dönüşmesi ihtimali ve ekonomik büyümeyle birlikte bahsini ettiğimiz bu sorunların da büyümesi sonucu, yakalanan olumlu tablonun bozulacağı düşünülebilir. Bu açıdan bakıldığında, Çin'in süper güç olabilirliğinin tartışılmasının henüz çok erken olduğu; fakat özellikle bölgesindeki fırsatları realist bakış açısıyla değerlendirmesi ve sürdürülebilir enerji politikalarını devreye sokması halinde bölgesinde etkin bir güç olacağını ve göreceli gücünü koruyabileceğini söyleyebiliriz.

South Korea's rising status in regional and global affairs has received significant attention in recent years. In academic, media, and policy debates, though, South Korea is usually regarded as a mere middle power that, due to its geopolitical situation, has only limited leeway in its foreign policy choices. Accordingly, it must constantly maneuver between its larger neighbors: China, Japan, and Russia. However, this perspective negates the fact that the same geopolitical constraints also apply to other states in the region. Thus no country can easily project its power onto others. We use the concept of “regional power” as a template for investigating South Korea's rising stature in regional and global politics, and argue that Seoul appears quite capable of keeping up with other assumed regional powers. Hence, we not only provide a novel account of South Korea's foreign policy options but also go beyond current approaches by asking about the (undetermined) possibilities that exist for Seoul's regional relations.

To understand the current character of the Middle East region, one must have a clear picture of the context in which the prevailing order was formed. One must take into account the relationships between parties, the dominant behaviour patterns of the entities and institutions that created and shaped the regional order and interference from external forces. However, periods of stability and instability and ongoing security issues are best explained the by power, ambition, behaviour and interaction of the regional powers (Egypt, Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey). The relationships and conflicts between these powers, as well as examples of cooperation and integration, will be at the centre of our examination of the changes in the regional order of the Middle East during the past seven decades.

Around the world nation-states are struggling actors in the world arena who constantly struggle to become a regional power. This type of power can exist in nation state through means of control and influence. The way a nation state can obtain this power is by having precondition of strong economic or military capabilities. The term regional integration can be defined as a successful dialogue between states within a geographical area.  Regional organizations are a formation of individual states which collaborate for a part of economic, political or military benefit. They can be used as tools to project the power of individual states in the form of regional power. In this paper we will use the theory “4+1” to define the great powers as China, Japan and Russia while defining the superpower as the United States. States give up a portion of their individual sovereignty to work together to receive absolute gains in order to achieve regional hegemonic power. This paper will address how and whether regional integration has been successful or whether regional integration has been successful in either Asia or North America region based on internal and external criteria. In addition, Regional organizations are emphasized as a tool for great or super powers to project their national interests.

La diplomacia pública y la marca-país son herramientas de política exterior que permiten a los Estados gestionar su imagen en el ámbito internacional. A pesar de lo anterior, ambas herramientas tienen propósitos diferenciados, la primera con un carácter más holístico e integrador, privilegia la dimensión político diplomática; la segunda, con un carácter más instrumental, se centra predominantemente en la dimensión comercial, turística y financiera. El artículo caracteriza la difusión contemporánea de ambas estrategias en los treinta y cinco Estados del hemisferio, afirmando que existe una correlación positiva entre mayores capacidades relativas de poder y la mayor posibilidad de desarrollar una estrategia de diplomacia pública. En contraste, la marca-país es una herramienta más usual dada la necesidad de la mayoría de Estados americanos de fortalecer su inserción en la economía mundial. Se ejemplifica con los casos de Brasil, Chile, México y Perú.

Este artículo es resultado de la investigación “Diplomacia pública en Estados pequeños: perspectivas para Costa Rica”, código 0107-13 de la Universidad Nacional de Costa Rica.

With the end of the Cold War and the subsequent events that culminated in the coming to power of Lula Da Silva in Brazil in 2002-2003, under the rubric of South-South diplomacy, Brazil attempted to manoeuvre the international system through the platforms of various regional groupings like the BRICS, IBSA, G4, G20+ in order to achieve its long standing understanding of its own ‘grandeza.’ Supported by the commodity price boom, the emerging economies of India and China as well the rise of left leaning politicos in Latin America, it attempted to utilise the regional level to bolster its position at the international one. However, the stratification in the South as it presents itself in the new North-South and rest divide rendered Brazilian claims of leadership problematic. This paper attempts to analyse the contested nature of Brazilian leadership in Latin America, the intricacies of new South-South Cooperation as well as the future of Brazilian leadership today under a very different ideological and political leadership.

Studies on South African post-apartheid foreign policy have evolved through four distinctive strands: the estimative, the new dispensation, the ambiguity and strategic engagement. In this article, I attempt to illustrate that a burgeoning thread is noticeable in recent times within the fourth strand offering a marked perspective on the ideational and utilitarian substance of soft power for South Africa's foreign policy and within the discursive context of its regional/middle power status. In considering the varied arguments submitted by scholars in this regard, the article uncovers three significant thematic positions. First, the cultivation and utilisa-tion of soft power instruments present multiple platforms for expanding South Africa's global reputation and regional influence. Second, soft power has been the fulcrum of South Africa's post-apartheid foreign policy. Third and definitely no less important, this new body of analysis offer critical explanation into the international moral authority and global acceptance that South Africa ostensibly enjoys over and above other regional competitors. Drawing on Alden and Schoeman's 'symbolic representivity' narrative, I argue that it is on the basis of these three interrelated assertions that South Africa's putative hegemonic reference thrives.

The last events demonstrated South Korea’s influence in the Central Asia and its significance for the great actors from the international stage. South Korea is a major player in Asia and its partnerships and collaborations with USA, Japan, even Russia situate it among the most important powers. In the same time, South Korea has a great importance not just for its neighbors (Japan, China, and North Korea), for the region of Central Asia or for the great powers (USA, Russia), but even for Europe. We cannot neglect the country’s aspiring future influence and importance around the world. The economic rising of Asia’s countries will bring attention on Central Asia and Northeast Asia. I guess that Seoul will be included in many economic and political agreements and especially on issues concerning cultural diplomacy. South Korea’s economic performance, the improvement of services trade, foreign investments and its great resources prove the country’s assertive role on global stage.  In some years, as many authors underlined, South Korea will become “the world’s major international business hub” (Allison Hyatt, “The Key to South Korea’s Future Growth”, August 28, 2011, www. archdaily.com.). We cannot neglect South Korea’s “soft power” expressed by its traditions, cultural values, soap operas, music already known in almost entire Europe. I guess that the success of public diplomacy for South Korea depends on its efficacy to promote its soft power. And I think that this is the most important factor of South Korea which could make it visible among regional powers. The paper underline that the soft power component could reassert the social dimension of South Korea, the recognition and acceptance of the country’s regional power by other countries.  "

Saudi Arabia is regional power which shapes the international relations in the Middle East. The establishment of the state and the sources of its legitimacy through which proclaims itself as the protector of Islam shape its specific relations with other countries in the Middle East. Today's biggest challenges for the country are maintaining the legitimacy of the monarchy internally and its leadership in the region, which is under challenge from her most ideological and geopolitical rival Iran. The challenge is also how to maintain longstanding alliance with the United States and the connection with this great power which radical extremists strongly exploit to deligitimizes the county as "a leader in the Islamic world." And finally how to deal with oil price shocks which is the living source of the country. In this paper we will try to answer the question whether Saudi Arabia led a strong regional foreign policy to maintain a strong influence from Tehran, which undermines the legitimacy of the state and its place in the Islamic world? Also we will try to present external challenges which the state sees as very threatening for the Kingdom and the policies undertaken for those challenges. The behavior of Saudi Arabia as a regional power has its source in that it is seen as the protector of "correct Islam" and as such should be a leader in the region so it is of great importance to know the possible outcomes from the challenges that the country have to address.

In a contemporary multipolar (or uni-multipolar) world, powerful states in particular regions attempt to take a leading role in the region and sometimes to become a great world power. This is also the case of Brazil, India and Iran – three powerful states attempting to achieve the status of regional hegemony in particular sub-systems (South America, South Asia and the Middle East). Although these powers have some common features, according to which they can be distinguished from other (weaker) states in the region, they differ in their power capabilities, their strategies of gaining more power and of becoming a regional hegemon. These strategies do not only depend on the particular state and its capabilities, but also on the region which a state is part of, and on relations with other countries.

Today three external powers –the US, China and Russia– are the leading players behind great power rivalry in the Middle East. The consequences of the Arab Uprisings, the decline of the post-Cold War order and increasing global rivalry between great powers have led to this regional competition anew. Given the austerity and cautiousness of external powers as a result, to a great extent, of the COVID-19 pandemic, the driving forces underlying the rivalry will be shaped by regional powers such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey and the rising power of the UAE and its competitors in the Middle East.
http://www.realinstitutoelcano.org/wps/portal/rielcano_en/contenido?WCM_GLOBAL_CONTEXT=/elcano/elcano_in/zonas_in/commentary-michnik-great-power-rivalry-in-the-middle-east

In quale momento  una potenza regionale inizia a lottare per l’egemonia nei confronti dei suoi vicini geografici e
come ciò influenza la strategia di una potenza globale?
A questa domanda hanno cercato di rispondere Sung Eun Kim e Johannes Urpelainen (2015) della Columbia University, attraverso l’elaborazione di un suggestivo modello che riprende la teoria dei giochi. I due studiosi statunitensi ricordano come un’ampia letteratura sulla transizione di potere identifichi l’ascesa di stati insoddisfatti come la condizione più favorevole alla guerra, senza però
esplorare la competizione per l’influenza tra potenze dominanti e potenze sfidanti come condizione ottimale per il conflitto.

Wydawnictwo Rambler opublikowało książkę Mirosława Sułka pt. Potęga państw. Modele i zastosowania. Rozważania w pracy ujęto w dziewięć rozdziałów, uzupełniając je wprowadzeniem, zakończeniem oraz bibliografią i indeksem nazwisk. Praca zaopatrzona jest w tabele, wykresy i rysunki. Książkę poświęcono zagadnieniu potęgi państw, kluczowemu problemowi współczesnych stosunków międzynarodowych.

Palgrave Studies in International Relations, produced in association with the European International Studies Association (EISA), will provide students and scholars with the best theoretically informed scholarship on the global issues of our time. Edited by Knud Erik Jørgensen and Audie Klotz, this new book series will comprise cutting-edge monographs and edited collections which bridge schools of thought and cross the boundaries of conventional fields of study.

Resumo: o presente capítulo fornece uma apreciação geral e um breve estudo comparativo do papel desempenhado pelas potências regionais no sistema internacional contemporâneo. Analisa-se primeiro a crescente influência desses atores emergentes nos cenários político e econômico internacional verificada tanto em agendas de caráter  intra-regional, quanto em contatos extra regionais. Em seguida o trabalho examina comparativamente a conduta estratégica da política externa de Brasil, Índia e África do Sul enquanto elementos representativos de alguns dos mais relevantes câmbios produzidos no plano político internacional em período recente.  Os legados históricos, interesses políticos, idéias e estratégias dessas potências regionais são contrapostas de modo a identificar seus limites e possibilidades objetivas no contexto das transformações dinâmicas do plano internacional globalizado. Assim, o estudo identifica as características compartilhadas por esses Estados e os pontos de divergência encontrados entre os atores investigados na condução de suas respectivas políticas externas. A pesquisa demonstra que os poderes regionais buscam aumentar sua importância na ordem internacional através de uma complexa combinação que conjuga elementos de projeção de capacidades na arena internacional, liderança de projetos de integração regional e parcerias estratégicas com outros países emergentes.

In her position as a rising power, India has reassessed and reinvigorated the entirety of her relations with Africa in the past decade. These relations cover the economic, political and the security spheres. They are the result of India’s ideational foreign policy change, her economic growth trajectory, looming energy insecurity and India’s role as an increasingly important international stakeholder. The main argument of the article is that India has successfully worked out her own policies, institutional structures and inter-regional development schemes with unique characteristics to develop and deepen linkages with sub-Saharan Africa. The article concludes that India now has a potential of assuming the role of ‘game changer’ in the new scramble for Africa’s resources and the struggle for votes and support of African states in international institutions and fora.

Este artigo mostra como o Brasil se tornou um caso atípico dentro de uma categoria atípica: é um estado bifronte, mas não está puxado entre duas regiões mas entre uma região (para mais, difusa) e o sistema global. Apesar de sua preeminência regional, o Brasil tem sido incapaz de traduzir os seus recursos estruturais e instrumentais em liderança eficaz. Seus potenciais seguidores não têm apoiado suas principais metas de política externa, e alguns de seus vizinhos questionam até mesmo a sua supremacia material. Ao jogar a carta regional para alcançar fins globais, o Brasil acabou em uma situação inesperada: enquanto sua liderança regional cresceu no discurso, tem sido enfraquecida na prática. Mesmo assim, ele conseguiu crescente importância global e hoje é amplamente reconhecido como um global player. Hoje, o país é grande demais para deixar que a região amarre suas mãos, mas ainda pequeno para saltar para o mundo sem se preocupar com o potencial de dano de sua vizinhança. Assim, instrumentalizar a sua bifrontalidade continuará a ser um elemento essencial da sua política externa dual, dividido como está entre as restrições impostas pela geografia e os desafios provenientes da suas aspirações globais.

Turkey is emerging as an important actor in world politics, exerting growing influence both in its immediate region and beyond. This book aims to understand and explain this phenomenon, utilizing a variety of perspectives from international relations theory. One prominent issue is how Turkey, long embedded in the West via NATO and other European organizations, is growing more confident and is asserting more independent foreign policy positions. This is particularly marked in the Middle East, where some suggest Turkey is pursuing a "neo-Ottomanist" agenda. At times, this competes with and creates tensions with the West. However, a rising Turkey can also be a constructive phenomenon and complement the West. This book examines geopolitical, economic, and cultural dimensions of Turkey’s rise, pointing to both Turkish success and the limits of Turkish power and influence. It includes consideration of Turkey’s relations with NATO, the European Union, the Middle East, and BRIC co...