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The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk

Author

Listed:
  • Victoria Y. Fan
  • Dean T. Jamison
  • Lawrence H. Summers
Abstract
Estimates of the long-term annual cost of global warming lie in the range of 0.2-2% of global income. This high cost has generated widespread political concern and commitment as manifested in the Paris agreements of December, 2015. Analyses in this paper suggest that the expected annual cost of pandemic influenza falls in the same range as does that of climate change although toward the low end. In any given year a small likelihood exists that the world will again suffer a very severe flu pandemic akin to the one of 1918. Even a moderately severe pandemic, of which at least 6 have occurred since 1700, could lead to 2 million or more excess deaths. World Bank and other work has assessed the probable income loss from a severe pandemic at 4-5% of global GNI. The economics literature points to a very high intrinsic value of mortality risk, a value that GNI fails to capture. In this paper we use findings from that literature to generate an estimate of pandemic cost that is inclusive of both income loss and the cost of elevated mortality. We present results on an expected annual basis using reasonable (although highly uncertain) estimates of the annual probabilities of pandemics in two bands of severity. We find: 1. Expected pandemic deaths exceed 700,000 per year worldwide with an associated annual mortality cost of estimated at $490 billion. We use published figures to estimate expected income loss at $80 billion per year and hence the inclusive cost to be $570 billion per year or 0.7% of global income (range: 0.4-1.0%). 2. For moderately severe pandemics about 40% of inclusive cost results from income loss. For severe pandemics this fraction declines to 12%: the intrinsic cost of elevated mortality becomes completely dominant. 3. The estimates of mortality cost as a % of GNI range from around 1.6% in lower-middle income countries down to 0.3% in high-income countries, mostly as a result of much higher pandemic death rates in lower-income environments. 4. The distribution of pandemic severity has an exceptionally fat tail: about 95% of the expected cost results from pandemics that would be expected to kill over 7 million people worldwide.

Suggested Citation

  • Victoria Y. Fan & Dean T. Jamison & Lawrence H. Summers, 2016. "The Inclusive Cost of Pandemic Influenza Risk," NBER Working Papers 22137, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:22137
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Brahmbhatt, Milan & Dutta, Arindam, 2008. "On SARS type economic effects during infectious disease outbreaks," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4466, The World Bank.
    2. Hammitt James K. & Robinson Lisa A, 2011. "The Income Elasticity of the Value per Statistical Life: Transferring Estimates between High and Low Income Populations," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, January.
    3. Robert S. Pindyck & Neng Wang, 2013. "The Economic and Policy Consequences of Catastrophes," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 5(4), pages 306-339, November.
    4. Jamison Dean T. & Jamison Julian, 2011. "Characterizing the Amount and Speed of Discounting Procedures," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(2), pages 1-56, April.
    5. Hammitt James K. & Robinson Lisa A, 2011. "The Income Elasticity of the Value per Statistical Life: Transferring Estimates between High and Low Income Populations," Journal of Benefit-Cost Analysis, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-29, January.
    6. Lembke B., 1918. "√ a. p," Journal of Economics and Statistics (Jahrbuecher fuer Nationaloekonomie und Statistik), De Gruyter, vol. 111(1), pages 709-712, February.
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    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics

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    Cited by:

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    2. Ilan Noy & Nguyen Doan & Benno Ferrarini & Donghyun Park, 2020. "Measuring the Economic Risk of COVID‐19," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 11(4), pages 413-423, September.
    3. Al-Ubaydli, Omar, 2020. "Understanding How the Coronavirus Affects the Global Economy: A Guide for Non-Economists," MPRA Paper 99642, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Emmanuel Apergis & Nicholas Apergis, 2021. "The impact of COVID-19 on economic growth: evidence from a Bayesian Panel Vector Autoregressive (BPVAR) model," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(58), pages 6739-6751, December.
    5. Chang Ma & John Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2023. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 21(5), pages 2098-2130.
    6. repec:zbw:bofitp:2020_016 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Bello, Kehinde Mary & Gidigbi, Matthew Oladapo, 2021. "The Effect of Trade on Economic Growth in Nigeria: Does Covid-19 Matters?," African Journal of Economic Review, African Journal of Economic Review, vol. 9(3), June.
    8. Apergis, Nicholas & Danuletiu, Dan & Xu, Bing, 2022. "CDS spreads and COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    9. Keyang Li & Yu Qin & Jing Wu & Jubo Yan, 2023. "Perceived economic prospects during the early stage of COVID‐19 breakout," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 41(4), pages 696-713, October.
    10. Chang Ma & John H. Rogers & Sili Zhou, 2020. "Modern Pandemics: Recession and Recovery," International Finance Discussion Papers 1295, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    11. Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2020. "The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness," NBER Working Papers 27992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Khan, Safi Ullah, 2022. "Financing constraints and firm-level responses to the COVID-19 pandemic: International evidence," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    13. Romain Espinosa & Damian Tago & Nicolas Treich, 2020. "Infectious Diseases and Meat Production," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 76(4), pages 1019-1044, August.
    14. Jonathan T. Vu & Benjamin K. Kaplan & Shomesh Chaudhuri & Monique K. Mansoura & Andrew W. Lo, 2020. "Financing Vaccines for Global Health Security," NBER Working Papers 27212, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Ali Gungoraydinoglu & Ilke Öztekin & Özde Öztekin, 2021. "The Impact of COVID-19 and Its Policy Responses on Local Economy and Health Conditions," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(6), pages 1-27, May.
    16. Seth D. Baum, 2023. "Assessing natural global catastrophic risks," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 115(3), pages 2699-2719, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • H51 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Health
    • I15 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Economic Development
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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