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Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: a mid-term review

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  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul
Abstract
This article provides an interim assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of the Covid-19 pandemic. Estimates suggest a median output loss of about 8 percent in 2020, a gap that is expected to narrow to around 4 percent of the pre-pandemic trend by the end of 2021. There is however a high dispersion of economic losses across economies, reflecting varying exposures to the pandemic and societies' responses. High-frequency indicators and epidemiological models provide some insights into the interactions between the pandemic evolution and societies' strategies of combating it, including the role of vaccination. The article draws lessons from experiences thus far and discusses challenges ahead.

Suggested Citation

  • Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic effects of Covid-19: a mid-term review," BIS Working Papers 959, Bank for International Settlements.
    • Handle: RePEc:bis:biswps:959
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    Cited by:

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    2. Hosoya, Kei, 2023. "Impact of infectious disease pandemics on individual lifetime consumption: An endogenous time preference approach," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    3. Adina Criste & Iulia Lupu, 2022. "Features of the COVID-19 Crisis – Reflections of Economic and Financial Indicators," Ovidius University Annals, Economic Sciences Series, Ovidius University of Constantza, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 0(1), pages 215-223, September.
    4. Yugang He, 2022. "Home Production: Does It Matter for the Korean Macroeconomy during the COVID-19 Pandemic?," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(12), pages 1-12, June.
    5. Phurichai Rungcharoenkitkul, 2021. "Macroeconomic consequences of pandexit," BIS Working Papers 932, Bank for International Settlements.
    6. Birindelli, Giuliana & Miazza, Aline & Paimanova, Viktoriia & Palea, Vera, 2023. "Just “blah blah blah”? Stock market expectations and reactions to COP26," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    7. Gagnon, Joseph E. & Kamin, Steven B. & Kearns, John, 2023. "The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global GDP growth," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    8. Barbara Cieślińska & Anna Janiszewska, 2022. "Demographic and Social Dimension of the COVID-19 Pandemic in Polish Cities: Excess Deaths and Residents’ Fears," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 14(13), pages 1-24, July.
    9. Ravindra N. Shukla & Vishal Vyas & Animesh Chaturvedi, 2024. "Leverage adjustment analytics: effect of Covid-19 crisis on financial adjustments of Indian firms," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 48(2), pages 513-543, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19 pandemic; health-economic tradeoffs;

    JEL classification:

    • E00 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - General
    • I18 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Government Policy; Regulation; Public Health

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