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The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness

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  • Joseph E. Stiglitz
Abstract
This paper analyzes the economic impact of the pandemic, providing insights into the consequences of alternative policies. Our framework focuses on three key features: (a) Covid-19 is a sectoral shock of unknown depth and duration affecting some sectors and technologies more than others; (b) there are constraints in shifting resources across sectors; and (c) there is a high level of uncertainty about the disease and its economic aftermath, inducing a high level of precautionary behavior by some agents and leading to others facing more severe credit constraints. Because of macroeconomic externalities, precautionary behavior exacerbates the downturn, and even sectors where Covid-19 does not directly affect consumption or production may face unemployment. Multipliers associated with different government expenditure programs differ markedly. The paper describes policies that can mitigate precautionary behavior, leading to reduced unemployment. Greater wage flexibility may lead to increased unemployment. The precautionary behavior is the antithesis of equilibrium behavior, suggesting that standard equilibrium approaches may not provide the appropriate framework for analyzing the pandemic: individuals know that they don’t know the future, that existing and newly made contracts and plans may be broken, and that they need to be able to respond to these unknowable contingencies.

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  • Joseph E. Stiglitz, 2020. "The Pandemic Economic Crisis, Precautionary Behavior, and Mobility Constraints: An Application of the Dynamic Disequilibrium Model with Randomness," NBER Working Papers 27992, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:27992
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giovanni Dosi & Mauro Napoletano & Andrea Roventini & Joseph E. Stiglitz & Tania Treibich, 2020. "Rational Heuristics? Expectations And Behaviors In Evolving Economies With Heterogeneous Interacting Agents," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 58(3), pages 1487-1516, July.
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    Cited by:

    1. Bonam, Dennis & Smădu, Andra, 2021. "The long-run effects of pandemics on inflation: Will this time be different?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 208(C).
    2. Stefanie Stantcheva, 2022. "Inequalities in the times of a pandemic," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 37(109), pages 5-41.
    3. Pontus Braunerhjelm, 2022. "Rethinking stabilization policies; Including supply-side measures and entrepreneurial processes," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 963-983, February.
    4. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2024. "The Spectre of Financial Dominance in the Eurozone," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 10(1), pages 59-80, March.
    5. Stiglitz, Joseph, 2021. "Lessons from COVID-19 and Trump for Theory and Policy (Paper)," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(4), pages 749-760.
    6. José Pedro Bastos Neves & Willi Semmler, 2022. "Credit, output and financial stress: A non‐linear LVSTAR application to Brazil," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 900-923, July.
    7. Pierpaolo Benigno & Paolo Canofari & Giovanni Di Bartolomeo & Marcello Messori, 2021. "Financial Dominance in the Pandemic and Post-Pandemic European Economy," Working Papers in Public Economics 206, University of Rome La Sapienza, Department of Economics and Law.
    8. Teruel, Mercedes & Amaral-Garcia, Sofia & Bauer, Péter & Coad, Alexander & Domnick, Clemens & Harasztosi, Péter & Pál, Rozália, 2022. "COVID-19 and the resilience of European firms: The influence of pre-crisis productivity, digitalisation and growth performance," EIB Working Papers 2022/13, European Investment Bank (EIB).
    9. Sanha Noh & Ingul Baek, 2022. "What are the Driving Forces of the Economic Downturn in Korea during COVID-19? (Covid-19 Special Issue)," Korean Economic Review, Korean Economic Association, vol. 38, pages 285-322.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • B22 - Schools of Economic Thought and Methodology - - History of Economic Thought since 1925 - - - Macroeconomics
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E63 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Comparative or Joint Analysis of Fiscal and Monetary Policy; Stabilization; Treasury Policy
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • J21 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Force and Employment, Size, and Structure
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand

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