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Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective

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  • Lanz, Bruno
  • Dietz, Simon
  • Swanson, Tim
Abstract
We structurally estimate a two-sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long-run evolution of global population, technological progress and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onwards show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100 global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

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  • Lanz, Bruno & Dietz, Simon & Swanson, Tim, 2017. "Global population growth, technology and Malthusian constraints: a quantitative growth theoretic perspective," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 66496, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:66496
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    1. Will global population level off soon?
      by nawmsayn in ZeeConomics on 2014-09-06 02:02:01

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    Cited by:

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    6. Chen, Y.-H. Henry & Paltsev, Sergey & Reilly, John M. & Morris, Jennifer F. & Babiker, Mustafa H., 2016. "Long-term economic modeling for climate change assessment," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 867-883.
    7. Lanz, Bruno & Dietz, Simon & Swanson, Tim, 2018. "The Expansion of Modern Agriculture and Global Biodiversity Decline: An Integrated Assessment," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 144(C), pages 260-277.
    8. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Tim Swanson, 2016. "Economic growth and agricultural land conversion under uncertain productivity improvements in agriculture," FOODSECURE Working papers 53, LEI Wageningen UR.
    9. Pedro Naso; Ozgun Haznedar; Bruno Lanz; Timothy Swanson, 2021. "Food Security in the Long-Run:A Macroeconomic Approach to Land Use Policy," CIES Research Paper series 71-2021, Centre for International Environmental Studies, The Graduate Institute.
    10. Bretschger, Lucas, 2024. "Green Road is open: Economic Pathway with a carbon price escalator," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
    11. Peter K. Kruse-Andersen, 2019. "Directed Technical Change, Environmental Sustainability, and Population Growth," Discussion Papers 19-12, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
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    16. Bretschger, Lucas, 2020. "Malthus in the light of climate change," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 127(C).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Global population; technological progress; economic growth; agriculture; Malthusian constraints; land conversion; structural estimation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics

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