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The fertility transition around the world

Author

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  • Holger Strulik
  • Sebastian Vollmer
Abstract
In this paper, we study the evolution of the distribution of fertility rates across the world from 1950 to 2005 using parametric mixture models. We demonstrate the existence of twin peaks and the division of the world’s countries in two distinct components: a high-fertility regime and a low-fertility regime. Whereas the significance of twin peaks vanishes over time, the two fertility regimes continue to exists over the whole observation period. In 1950, about two thirds of the world’s countries belonged to the high-fertility regime and the rest constituted the low-fertility regime. By the year 2005, this picture has reversed. Within both the low- and the high-fertility regime, the average fertility rate declined, with a larger absolute decline within the high-fertility regime. Visually, the two peaks moved closer together. For the low-fertility regime, we find both β- and σ -convergence but we cannot establish any convergence pattern for the high-fertility regime. Our results support the idea of conditional convergence where the condition is the successful initiation of the fertility transition. The results are less supportive of the existence of a unique high-fertility equilibrium. Copyright Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2015. "The fertility transition around the world," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 31-44, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jopoec:v:28:y:2015:i:1:p:31-44
    DOI: 10.1007/s00148-013-0496-2
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Simon Dietz & Bruno Lanz, 2019. "Growth and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Long Run," CESifo Working Paper Series 7986, CESifo.
    2. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2013. "The past and future of knowledge-based growth," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 411-437, December.
    3. Minasyan, Anna & Zenker, Juliane & Klasen, Stephan & Vollmer, Sebastian, 2019. "Educational gender gaps and economic growth: A systematic review and meta-regression analysis," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 199-217.
    4. Gregory Clark & Neil Cummins, 2015. "Malthus to modernity: wealth, status, and fertility in England, 1500–1879," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 3-29, January.
    5. Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Timothy Swanson, 2017. "Global Population Growth, Technology, And Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 973-1006, August.
    6. Holger Strulik & Klaus Prettner & Alexia Prskawetz, 2010. "R&D-Based Growth in the Post-Modern Era," VID Working Papers 1009, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.
    7. Papagni, Erasmo, 2018. "Fertility Transitions in Developing Countries: Convergence, Timing, and Causes," GLO Discussion Paper Series 248, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    8. Caroline Krafft, 2020. "Why is fertility on the rise in Egypt? The role of women’s employment opportunities," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(4), pages 1173-1218, October.
    9. Thomas Gries & Rainer Grundmann, 2014. "Trade and fertility in the developing world: the impact of trade and trade structure," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 27(4), pages 1165-1186, October.
    10. Erasmo Papagni, 2023. "Long-term barriers to global fertility convergence," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 431-470, January.
    11. Wookun Kim, 2023. "Baby Bonus, Fertility, and Missing Women," Departmental Working Papers 2308, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    12. Dierk Herzer & Holger Strulik & Sebastian Vollmer, 2012. "The long-run determinants of fertility: one century of demographic change 1900–1999," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 357-385, December.
    13. Srinivas Goli & Moradhvaj & Swastika Chakravorty & Anu Rammohan, 2019. "World health status 1950-2015: Converging or diverging," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(3), pages 1-20, March.
    14. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2017. "Disease and Fertility: Evidence from the 1918 Influenza Pandemic in Sweden," IZA Discussion Papers 10834, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    15. Gahramanov Emin & Gaibulloev Khusrav & Younas Javed, 2019. "Parental Transfers, Intra-household Bargaining and Fertility Decision," The B.E. Journal of Economic Analysis & Policy, De Gruyter, vol. 19(1), pages 1-17, January.
    16. Boberg-Fazlic, Nina & Ivets, Maryna & Karlsson, Martin & Nilsson, Therese, 2021. "Disease and fertility: Evidence from the 1918–19 influenza pandemic in Sweden," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    17. Luca Zanin & Rosalba Radice & Giampiero Marra, 2015. "Modelling the impact of women’s education on fertility in Malawi," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 28(1), pages 89-111, January.
    18. Attar, M. Aykut, 2013. "Growth and Demography in Turkey: Economic History vs. Pro-Natalist Rhetoric," MPRA Paper 47275, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Hirazawa, Makoto & Yakita, Akira, 2017. "Labor supply of elderly people, fertility, and economic development," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 75-96.
    20. Giuseppe Gabrielli & Anna Paterno & Silvana Salvini & Isabella Corazziari, 2021. "Demographic trends in less and least developed countries: Convergence or divergence?," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 38(3), pages 221-258, September.
    21. Gahramanov, Emin & Gaibulloev, Khusrav & Younas, Javed, 2017. "Parental Transfers and Fertility: Does the Recipient's Gender Matter?," MPRA Paper 79531, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    22. Wookun Kim, 2020. "Baby Bonus, Fertility, and Missing Women," Departmental Working Papers 2011, Southern Methodist University, Department of Economics.
    23. Wookun Kim, 2024. "Baby Bonus, Fertility, and Missing Women," CESifo Working Paper Series 11215, CESifo.
    24. Jan Priebe, 2020. "Quasi-experimental evidence for the causal link between fertility and subjective well-being," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 33(3), pages 839-882, July.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Convergence; Twin peaks; J11; J13; O11;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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