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Global Population Growth, Technology, And Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective

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  • Bruno Lanz
  • Simon Dietz
  • Timothy Swanson
Abstract
We structurally estimate a two‐sector Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous population and finite land reserves to study the long‐run evolution of global population, technological progress, and the demand for food. The estimated model closely replicates trajectories for world population, GDP, sectoral productivity growth, and crop land area from 1960 to 2010. Projections from 2010 onward show a slowdown of technological progress, and, because it is a key determinant of fertility costs, significant population growth. By 2100, global population reaches 12.4 billion and agricultural production doubles, but the land constraint does not bind because of capital investment and technological progress.

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  • Bruno Lanz & Simon Dietz & Timothy Swanson, 2017. "Global Population Growth, Technology, And Malthusian Constraints: A Quantitative Growth Theoretic Perspective," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 58(3), pages 973-1006, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:iecrev:v:58:y:2017:i:3:p:973-1006
    DOI: 10.1111/iere.12242
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    1. Will global population level off soon?
      by nawmsayn in ZeeConomics on 2014-09-06 02:02:01

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • Q15 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Land Ownership and Tenure; Land Reform; Land Use; Irrigation; Agriculture and Environment
    • Q24 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Renewable Resources and Conservation - - - Land

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