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International Currencies Past, Present, and Future: Two Views from Economic History

Author

Listed:
  • Eichengreen, Barry

    (UC Berkeley)

  • Flandreau, Marc

    (Graduate Institute of Genva)

  • Mehl, Arnaud

    (European Central Bank)

  • Chitu, Livia

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract
Conventional economic wisdom has long held that the world's dominant economic power tends to possess the world's dominant currency, and that the dominance of that currency can continue even after other, more dynamic economics powers surpass the issuer of it. The paradigmatic example is Great Britain, which had the world's biggest economy and the dominant currency in the nineteenth century. Yet even as it faded relative to the US and Germany, the pound sterling remained the world's reserve currency well into the twentieth century. Only massive systemic shocks like the Great Depression and World War Two could knock the pound from its perch. The story of the US economy and the dollar after the war is a similar one, and many expect that the dollar will eventually lose its pre-eminence to Chinese the renminbi at some point after the Chinese economy surpasses the US economy in size. China is certainly a clear rival to the US, but as Barry Eichengreen, Marc Flandreau, Arnaud Mehl and Livia Chitu argue, economics is not a zero-sum game. In International Currencies, Past, Present, and Future, they draw from innovative data sets to argue that several national currencies can play an important role in the global economy all at once. Rather than focusing on how one currency dominates, then, we should look at currency systems as networks. While there may be a clear leader, that does not meant that other major currencies cannot serve as international reserve hedges. Indeed, even in the late twentieth century, when US power was at a geopolitical apex, roughly 40 percent of global foreign exchange reserves were not in dollar form. The late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries were similarly multipolar with regard to foreign exchange reserve holdings, with the mark, the franc, and the dollar all playing important roles in a system in which the pound led. If past is prologue, we can look forward to a multipolar system in which the dollar and euro will continue to be important international currencies even if the renminbi surpasses the dollar--and the jury is out on that. Deeply informed by history, this powerfully revisionist account of how the international monetary system operates will not only transform our understanding of the past, but also force us to reconsider our expectations of how the system will evolve in future decades.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichengreen, Barry & Flandreau, Marc & Mehl, Arnaud & Chitu, Livia, 2017. "International Currencies Past, Present, and Future: Two Views from Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190659455.
    • Handle: RePEc:oxp:obooks:9780190659455
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Miaojie Yu, 2020. "China-US Trade War and Trade Talk," Springer Books, Springer, number 978-981-15-3785-1, January.
    2. Matthew Harrison & Geng Xiao, 2019. "China and Special Drawing Rights—Towards a Better International Monetary System," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 12(2), pages 1-15, April.
    3. Yin-Wong Cheung, 2023. "A decade of RMB internationalisation," Economic and Political Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(1), pages 47-74, January.
    4. Fan Zhang & Miaojie Yu & Jiantuo Yu & Yang Jin, 2017. "The Effect of RMB Internationalization on Belt and Road Initiative: Evidence from Bilateral Swap Agreements," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(12), pages 2845-2857, December.
    5. Barry Eichengreen & Domenico Lombardi, 2017. "RMBI or RMBR? Is the Renminbi Destined to Become a Global or Regional Currency?," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 16(1), pages 35-59, Winter/Sp.
    6. Kwon, Austin, 2017. "Trends in the Accumulation of Net Foreign Reserves since World War II," Studies in Applied Economics 94, The Johns Hopkins Institute for Applied Economics, Global Health, and the Study of Business Enterprise.
    7. Miaojie Yu, 2023. "Chinas Handelsentwicklung und die Gestaltung der Öffnungspolitik in den letzten vier Jahrzehnten," Springer Books, in: Handelskrieg und Handelsgespräche zwischen China und den USA, chapter 1, pages 3-22, Springer.
    8. Popov, Vladimir, 2023. "US dollar is losing it position of a reserve currency: How the BRICS development bank can ensure the soft landing," MPRA Paper 118342, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Mohammed Ahmed, Abdullahi, 2019. "China’s Bilateral Currency Swap Agreement: Strategic Move to Foster Political and Financial Hegemony," MPRA Paper 109879, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 08 Oct 2019.
    10. Miaojie Yu, 2023. "Internationalisierung des RMB und Belt and Road Initiative," Springer Books, in: Handelskrieg und Handelsgespräche zwischen China und den USA, chapter 10, pages 157-173, Springer.
    11. Jeremy Srouji, 2021. "Why is World Money World Money? A View from the Functions of Money," GREDEG Working Papers 2021-44, Groupe de REcherche en Droit, Economie, Gestion (GREDEG CNRS), Université Côte d'Azur, France.
    12. Delphine Lahet & Stéphanie Prat, 2021. "Internationalisation of emerging market currencies and original sin: Empirical evidence," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(7), pages 1973-2003, July.
    13. Delphine Lahet & Stéphanie Prat, 2023. "Local-currency debt and currency internationalization dynamics: A nonlinear framework," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 159(1), pages 215-254, February.
    14. Ward, Felix & Chen, Yao, 2016. "Rigid relations: External adjustment under the Gold Standard (1880-1913)," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145930, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F62 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Macroeconomic Impacts

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