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Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice

Author

Listed:
  • Barry Eichengreen
  • Arnaud Mehl
  • Livia Chiţu
  • Thorsten Beck
Abstract
SummaryWe assess the role of economic and security considerations in the currency composition of international reserves. We contrast the 'Mercury hypothesis' that currency choice is governed by pecuniary factors familiar to the literature, such as economic size and credibility of major reserve currency issuers, against the 'Mars hypothesis' that this depends on geopolitical factors. Using data on foreign reserves of 19 countries before World War I, for which the currency composition of reserves is known and security alliances proliferated, our results lend support to both hypotheses. We find that military alliances boost the share of a currency in the partner's foreign reserve holdings by about 30 percentage points. These findings speak to the implications of possible US disengagement from global geopolitical affairs. In a hypothetical scenario where the United States withdraws from the world, our estimates suggest that long-term US interest rates could rise by as much as 80 basis points, assuming that the composition of global reserves changes but their level does not.

Suggested Citation

  • Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chiţu & Thorsten Beck, 2019. "Mars or Mercury? The geopolitics of international currency choice," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 34(98), pages 315-363.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:ecpoli:v:34:y:2019:i:98:p:315-363.
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    3. Gergely Hudecz & Edmund Moshammer & Alexander Raabe & Gong Cheng, 2021. "The euro in the world," Discussion Papers 16, European Stability Mechanism, revised 27 Oct 2021.
    4. Colin Weiss, 2022. "Geopolitics and the U.S. Dollar's Future as a Reserve Currency," International Finance Discussion Papers 1359, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    5. Mateane, Lebogang, 2020. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," EconStor Preprints 227484, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Alan de Bromhead & David Jordan & Francis Kennedy & Jack Seddon, 2023. "Sterling's farewell symphony: The end of the Sterling Area revisited," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 76(2), pages 415-444, May.
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    8. Janus, Jakub, 2021. "The COVID-19 shock and long-term interest rates in emerging market economies," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 43(C).
    9. Norring, Anni, 2024. "Geoeconomic fragmentation, globalization, and multilateralism," BoF Economics Review 2/2024, Bank of Finland.
    10. Mateane, Lebogang, 2023. "Risk preferences, global market conditions and foreign debt: Is there any role for the currency composition of FX reserves?," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(3), pages 402-418.
    11. Aizenman, Joshua & Cheung, Yin-Wong & Qian, XingWang, 2020. "The currency composition of international reserves, demand for international reserves, and global safe assets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    12. Barry Eichengreen, 2024. "International Finance and Geopolitics," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 19(1), pages 84-100, January.
    13. Barry Eichengreen & Arnaud Mehl & Livia Chițu, 2021. "Mars or Mercury redux: The geopolitics of bilateral trade agreements," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(1), pages 21-44, January.
    14. Laser, Falk Hendrik & Weidner, Jan, 2020. "Currency compositions of international reserves and the euro crisis," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 238, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
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    Keywords

    F30; N20;

    JEL classification:

    • F0 - International Economics - - General
    • F33 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - International Monetary Arrangements and Institutions
    • F51 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy - - - International Conflicts; Negotiations; Sanctions
    • N0 - Economic History - - General
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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