Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/vfsc16/145930.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Rigid relations: External adjustment under the Gold Standard (1880-1913)

Author

Listed:
  • Ward, Felix
  • Chen, Yao
Abstract
External adjustments during the classical gold standard – a fixed exchange rate regime – were associated with few, if any, output costs. This paper analyzes the relative importance of flexible prices, migration and mildly countercyclical monetary policy for this relatively smooth adjustment experience. For this purpose we build and estimate a structural model of the classical gold standard. We find that the sustainability of the gold standard as a fixed exchange rate regime was primarily a consequence of flexible prices. Pre-1914 price flexibility is furthermore largely explicable by large pre-1914 primary sector shares. The paper proceeds in a historical comparative fashion by relating the gold standard experience to that of another fixed-exchange rate regime – today’s eurozone.

Suggested Citation

  • Ward, Felix & Chen, Yao, 2016. "Rigid relations: External adjustment under the Gold Standard (1880-1913)," VfS Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145930, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145930
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/145930/1/VfS_2016_pid_7073.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003. "Closing small open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
    2. Davutyan, Nurhan & Parke, William R, 1995. "The Operations of the Bank of England, 1890-1908: A Dynamic Probit Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 27(4), pages 1099-1112, November.
    3. Imre Ferenczi, 1929. "International Migration Statistics," NBER Chapters, in: International Migrations, Volume I: Statistics, pages 47-76, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Bordo, Michael David, 1980. "The Effects of Monetary Change on Relative Commodity Prices and the Role of Long-Term Contracts," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 88(6), pages 1088-1109, December.
    5. Matthias Morys, 2012. "Discount rate policy under the Classical Gold Standard: core versus periphery (1870s – 1914)," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 12/02, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    6. Hanes, Christopher, 1993. "The Development of Nominal Wage Rigidity in the Late 19th Century," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 83(4), pages 732-756, September.
    7. Thomas Piketty & Gabriel Zucman, 2014. "Capital is Back: Wealth-Income Ratios in Rich Countries 1700–2010," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 129(3), pages 1255-1310.
    8. Guillaume Bazot & Michael D. Bordo & Eric Monnet, 2014. "The Price of Stability: The balance sheet policy of the Banque de France and the Gold Standard (1880-1914)," NBER Working Papers 20554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number kuzn61-1.
    10. Luca Benati, 2008. "Investigating Inflation Persistence Across Monetary Regimes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(3), pages 1005-1060.
    11. Nber, 1975. "Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 1," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number moor75-1.
    12. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Trabandt, Mathias & Walentin, Karl, 2011. "Introducing financial frictions and unemployment into a small open economy model," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 1999-2041.
    13. Christopher M. Meissner & Alan M. Taylor, 2006. "Losing our marbles in the new century?: the great rebalancing in historical perspective," Conference Series ; [Proceedings], Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, vol. 51.
    14. Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2004. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy under sticky prices," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 114(2), pages 198-230, February.
    15. Philip R. Lane & Gian Maria Milesi-Ferretti, 2015. "Global Imbalances and External Adjustment After the Crisis," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series, in: Claudio Raddatz & Diego Saravia & Jaume Ventura (ed.),Global Liquidity, Spillovers to Emerging Markets and Policy Responses, edition 1, volume 20, chapter 4, pages 105-142, Central Bank of Chile.
    16. Eichengreen, Barry & Watson, Mark W & Grossman, Richard S, 1985. "Bank Rate Policy under the Interwar Gold Standard: A Dynamic Probit Model," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 95(379), pages 725-745, September.
    17. David S. Jacks & Kevin H. O'Rourke & Jeffrey G. Williamson, 2011. "Commodity Price Volatility and World Market Integration since 1700," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 93(3), pages 800-813, August.
    18. Phillip Cagan, 1975. "Changes in the Recession Behavior of Wholesale Prices in the 1920s and Post-World War II," NBER Chapters, in: Explorations in Economic Research, Volume 2, number 1, pages 54-104, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Eugene Canjels & Gauri Prakash-Canjels & Alan M. Taylor, 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard, 1879-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 868-882, November.
    20. Burhop, Carsten & Wolff, Guntram B., 2005. "A Compromise Estimate of German Net National Product, 1851–1913, and its Implications for Growth and Business Cycles," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 65(3), pages 613-657, September.
    21. Don D. Humphrey, 1937. "The Nature and Meaning of Rigid Prices, 1890-1933," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 45(5), pages 651-651.
    22. John Dutton, 1984. "The Bank of England and the Rules of the Game under the International Gold Standard: New Evidence," NBER Chapters, in: A Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931, pages 173-202, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. E.O. Svensson, Lars, 1994. "Why exchange rate bands? : Monetary independence in spite of fixed exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 157-199, February.
    24. Frédéric Zumer & Marc Flandreau, 2004. "The making of global finance : 1880-1913," Post-Print hal-03588770, HAL.
    25. Obstfeld,Maurice & Taylor,Alan M., 2005. "Global Capital Markets," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521671798, October.
    26. Simon Kuznets & Elizabeth Jenks, 1961. "Appendices and Index, "Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing"," NBER Chapters, in: Capital in the American Economy: Its Formation and Financing, pages 465-664, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    27. Hatton, T J, 1988. "Institutional Change and Wage Rigidity in the UK, 1880-1985," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press and Oxford Review of Economic Policy Limited, vol. 4(1), pages 74-86, Spring.
    28. Smits, J.-P. & Woltjer, P. & Ma, D., 2009. "A Dataset on Comparative Historical National Accounts, ca.1870-1950: A Time-Series Perspective," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-107, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
    29. Bordo, Michael D. & MacDonald, Ronald, 2005. "Interest rate interactions in the classical gold standard, 1880-1914: was there any monetary independence?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 307-327, March.
    30. Maurice Obstfeld & Alan M. Taylor, 2003. "Sovereign risk, credibility and the gold standard: 1870-1913 versus 1925-31," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 241-275, April.
    31. Muge Adalet & Barry Eichengreen, 2007. "Current Account Reversals: Always a Problem?," NBER Chapters, in: G7 Current Account Imbalances: Sustainability and Adjustment, pages 205-246, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    32. Coleman, Andrew, 2007. "The pitfalls of estimating transactions costs from price data: Evidence from trans-Atlantic gold-point arbitrage, 1886-1905," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(3), pages 387-410, July.
    33. Guillermo A. Calvo & Maurice Obstfeld & Rudiger Dornbusch (ed.), 2004. "Money, Capital Mobility, and Trade: Essays in Honor of Robert A. Mundell," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262532603, April.
    34. Gordon, Robert J, 1990. "What Is New-Keynesian Economics?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 28(3), pages 1115-1171, September.
    35. Knotek II, Edward S., 2008. "Convenient prices, currency, and nominal rigidity: Theory with evidence from newspaper prices," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1303-1316, October.
    36. Christopher Hanes, 2000. "Nominal Wage Rigidity and Industry Characteristics in the Downturns of 1893, 1929, and 1981," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1432-1446, December.
    37. Taylor, Alan M. & Canjels, Eugene & Prakash-Canjels, Gauri, 2004. "Measuring Market Integration: Foreign Exchange Arbitrage and the Gold Standard 1874-1913," CEPR Discussion Papers 4492, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    38. Christopher Hanes & John A. James, 2003. "Wage Adjustment Under Low Inflation: Evidence from U.S. History," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(4), pages 1414-1424, September.
    39. Morys, Matthias, 2013. "Discount rate policy under the Classical Gold Standard: Core versus periphery (1870s–1914)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 205-226.
    40. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2011. "From Financial Crash to Debt Crisis," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 1676-1706, August.
    41. Luis A. V. Catão & Solomos N. Solomou, 2005. "Effective Exchange Rates and the Classical Gold Standard Adjustment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(4), pages 1259-1275, September.
    42. Sachs, Jeffrey, 1980. "The Changing Cyclical Behavior of Wages and Prices: 1890-1976," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(1), pages 78-90, March.
    43. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1996_007 is not listed on IDEAS
    44. M Morys, 2010. "Monetary Policy under the Classical Gold Standard (1870s - 1914)," Centre for Historical Economics and Related Research at York (CHERRY) Discussion Papers 10/01, CHERRY, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    45. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    46. repec:hal:pseose:halshs-01109372 is not listed on IDEAS
    47. Chernyshoff, Natalia & Jacks, David S. & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Stuck on gold: Real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard, 1875-1939," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 195-205, April.
    48. Fenoaltea, Stefano, 1988. "International resource flows and construction movements in the atlantic economy: the kuznets cycle in Italy, 1861–1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(3), pages 605-637, September.
    49. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
    50. Alan M. Taylor, 2002. "A Century Of Purchasing-Power Parity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(1), pages 139-150, February.
    51. Youngsoo Bae & Robert M. de Jong, 2007. "Money demand function estimation by nonlinear cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(4), pages 767-793.
    52. Allen, Steven G, 1992. "Changes in the Cyclical Sensitivity of Wages in the United States, 1891-1987," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(1), pages 122-140, March.
    53. Eichengreen, Barry & Flandreau, Marc & Mehl, Arnaud & Chitu, Livia, 2017. "International Currencies Past, Present, and Future: Two Views from Economic History," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780190659455.
    54. Andrew Coleman, 2007. "The pitfalls of estimating transactions costs from price data: evidence from trans-Atlantic gold-point arbitrage, 1886-1905," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/07, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    55. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    56. Hatton, Timothy J, 1995. "A Model of U.K. Emigration, 1870-1913," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 77(3), pages 407-415, August.
    57. Alan Kackmeister, 2007. "Yesterday's Bad Times Are Today's Good Old Times: Retail Price Changes Are More Frequent Today Than in the 1890s," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(8), pages 1987-2020, December.
    58. Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Chen, Yao & Ward, Felix, 2019. "When do fixed exchange rates work? Evidence from the Gold Standard," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 158-172.
    2. Alan M. Taylor & Natalia Chernyshoff & David Jacks, 2005. "Stuck on Gold:Real Exchange Rate Volatility and the Rise and Fall of the Gold Standard, 1870?1939," Working Papers 237, University of California, Davis, Department of Economics.
    3. Lennard, Jason, 2018. "Did monetary policy matter? Narrative evidence from the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 16-36.
    4. Chernyshoff, Natalia & Jacks, David S. & Taylor, Alan M., 2009. "Stuck on gold: Real exchange rate volatility and the rise and fall of the gold standard, 1875-1939," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 195-205, April.
    5. Baffigi, Alberto & Bontempi, Maria Elena & Felice, Emanuele & Golinelli, Roberto, 2015. "The changing relationship between inflation and the economic cycle in Italy: 1861–2012," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 53-70.
    6. Morys, Matthias, 2013. "Discount rate policy under the Classical Gold Standard: Core versus periphery (1870s–1914)," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 205-226.
    7. Barry Eichengreen., 1994. "History and Reform of the International Monetary System," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C94-041, University of California at Berkeley.
    8. Nils Herger, 2018. "Interest-parity conditions during the era of the classical gold standard (1880–1914)—evidence from the investment demand for bills of exchange in Europe," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-12, December.
    9. Eichengreen, Barry, 1994. "Deja Vu All Over Again: Lessons from the Gold Standard for European Monetary Unification," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers 233215, University of California-Berkeley, Department of Economics.
    10. Barry Eichengreen., 1993. "International Monetary Arrangements for the 21st Century," Center for International and Development Economics Research (CIDER) Working Papers C93-021, University of California at Berkeley.
    11. Charles W. Calomiris & Christopher Hanes, 1994. "Historical Macroeconomics and American Macroeconomic History," NBER Working Papers 4935, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Jason Lennard, 2023. "Sticky wages and the Great Depression: evidence from the United Kingdom," European Review of Economic History, European Historical Economics Society, vol. 27(2), pages 196-222.
    13. Meissner, Christopher M., 2014. "Growth from Globalization? A View from the Very Long Run," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 8, pages 1033-1069, Elsevier.
    14. Kramer, Bert S. & Milionis, Petros, 2022. "Democratic constraints and adherence to the classical gold standard," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    15. Esteves, Rui Pedro & Reis, Jaime & Ferramosca, Fabiano, 2009. "Market Integration in the Golden Periphery. The Lisbon/London Exchange, 1854-1891," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 46(3), pages 324-345, July.
    16. Òscar Jordà & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2011. "When credit bites back: leverage, business cycles, and crises," Working Paper Series 2011-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    17. Daniel Kaufmann, 2016. "Is Deflation Costly After All? Evidence from Noisy Historical Data," KOF Working papers 16-421, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
    18. Juan Carlos Castro Fernández & Juan Carlos Castro Fernández, 2022. "Big Recessions and Slow Recoveries," Documentos de Trabajo UEC 20128, Universidad Externado de Colombia.
    19. Jacks, David S. & Yan, Se & Zhao, Liuyan, 2017. "Silver points, silver flows, and the measure of Chinese financial integration," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 377-386.
    20. Kevin H. O'Rourke & Alan M. Taylor, 2013. "Cross of Euros," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 167-192, Summer.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • N10 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • F20 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - General
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:vfsc16:145930. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vfsocea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.