United States Congress elections, 2016

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2016 Congress Elections
Election Date
November 8, 2016
U.S. Senate Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maryland • Missouri • Nevada • New Hampshire • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • South Carolina • South Dakota • Utah • Vermont • Washington • Wisconsin
U.S. House Elections by State
Battlegrounds • Primaries
Alabama • Alaska • Arizona • Arkansas • California • Colorado • Connecticut • Delaware • Florida • Georgia • Hawaii • Idaho • Illinois • Indiana • Iowa • Kansas • Kentucky • Louisiana • Maine • Maryland • Massachusetts • Michigan • Minnesota • Mississippi • Missouri • Montana • Nebraska • Nevada • New Hampshire • New Jersey • New Mexico • New York • North Carolina • North Dakota • Ohio • Oklahoma • Oregon • Pennsylvania • Rhode Island • South Carolina • South Dakota • Tennessee • Texas • Utah • Vermont • Virginia • Washington • West Virginia • Wisconsin • Wyoming


A total of 469 seats in the U.S. Congress (34 Senate seats and all 435 House seats) were up for election on November 8, 2016.[1]

The big story of the 2016 congressional election cycle was whether or not the Democratic Party would be able to regain control of the Senate. In order to take the chamber back, Democrats needed to gain five seats in 2016. They fell short of this goal, only picking up two seats in the general election. The majority of vulnerable seats were held by Republican incumbents, many of whom were freshmen who were swept into office in the Tea Party wave of 2010. As a result of this wave, Democrats only had 10 seats to defend in 2016, while 24 Republican incumbents were up for re-election.[2]

The unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on February 13, 2016, placed even greater importance on the 2016 Senate elections. Confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice requires 60 votes in the Senate, giving the Republican-controlled Senate the ability to deny any nominee chosen by President Barack Obama. Several Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, declared that the next president should have the responsibility of appointing the new justice. McConnell said in a statement, "The American people‎ should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President."[3]

Appointment and confirmation of the replacement justice will be left to the newly elected president and Senate in 2017. This put increased pressure on both parties to win the Senate in 2016, as the chamber has the ability to confirm or deny the next president's nominees. This also raised the issue of Republican obstructionism in some battleground states. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said of the issue, "I believe that many of the mainstream Republicans, when the president nominates a mainstream nominee, will not want to follow Mitch McConnell over the cliff. The American people don't like this obstruction. When you go right off the bat and say, 'I don't care who he nominates, I am going to oppose him,' that's not going to fly."[3][4]

Although it was extremely unlikely for Democrats to retake the House, the possibility had been discussed prior to the election. In order to flip control of the chamber, the Democratic Party would have needed to pick up 30 seats. Heading into the election, Ballotpedia rated 23 races as battlegrounds and an additional 14 as races to watch. If Democrats had won every one of those 37 races and lost no other seats, they would have just hit the 30 seats required to retake the chamber. As expected, the Republican Party easily held the chamber, losing just six seats.[5][6][7]

The fact that 2016 was a presidential election year was expected to be a boon for Democratic candidates. In the past decade, Democrats had made gains in both chambers in presidential elections, while they had suffered losses in the midterms. Ultimately, Donald Trump's victory at the top of the ticket led to smaller gains in both chambers by the Democratic Party than initially expected.[8]

HIGHLIGHTS
  • The Democratic Party gained two Senate seats in 2016, resulting in a 52-48 majority for Republicans. The two independent members of the Senate are included in the Democratic totals, as they caucus with Democrats.
  • The Democratic Party gained only six House seats in 2016, resulting in a 241-194 majority for the Republican Party.
  • There were only 21 states that featured at least one battleground race in either the House or the Senate. The rest were largely noncompetitive.

    • U.S. Senate overview

    See also: United States Senate elections, 2016

    Heading into the election, the Republican Party held the majority in the U.S. Senate. Republicans held 54 Senate seats while the Democrats had 44 Senate seats. Two seats were held by independents, who caucus with the Democratic Party. The Republicans won the Senate majority in the 2014 midterm elections when they gained nine seats and lost none. Republicans maintained their majority after the election, losing only two seats.

    U.S. Senate Partisan Breakdown
    Party As of November 2016 After the 2016 Election
         Democratic Party 44 46
         Republican Party 54 52
         Independent 2 2
    Total 100 100

    There were 24 Republican seats and 10 Democratic seats up for re-election. In 2016, the Democratic Party needed to pick up five seats in the Senate in order to regain the majority they lost in 2014. The majority of the Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2016 were first elected in 2010 during the Tea Party movement.[9] The below map displays the seats up for re-election in 2016 and the party that held the seat. Click a state to find out more.

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    Margin of victory

    The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. These results are unofficial and will be updated once official vote totals are in. In 2016, the average margin of victory in U.S. Senate races was 22.05 percent. This is very close to the average of 22.6 percent in 2014.

    Retired incumbents

    The following senators did not seek re-election in 2016.

    • Democratic Party 3 Democrats
    • Republican Party 2 Republicans
    Name:Party:Current office:
    Barbara BoxerElectiondot.png Democratic California
    Barbara MikulskiElectiondot.png Democratic Maryland
    Dan CoatsEnds.png Republican Director of National Intelligence
    David VitterEnds.png Republican Louisiana
    Harry ReidElectiondot.png Democratic Nevada

    Senate battlegrounds

    Senate 2016 Elections Map-updated.png

    The following table displays the results of the election in each battleground district.

    United States Senate Battleground Results
    State Incumbent Winner Partisan switch? Margin of victory
    Florida Republican Party Marco Rubio Republican Party Marco Rubio No 7.7%
    Illinois Republican Party Mark Kirk Democratic Party Tammy Duckworth Yes 15.1%
    Indiana Republican Party Dan Coats Republican Party Todd Young No 9.7%
    Missouri Republican Party Roy Blunt Republican Party Roy Blunt No 2.8%
    Nevada Democratic Party Harry Reid Democratic Party Catherine Cortez Masto No 2.4%
    New Hampshire Republican Party Kelly Ayotte Democratic Party Maggie Hassan Yes 0.1%
    North Carolina Republican Party Richard Burr Republican Party Richard Burr No 5.7%
    Pennsylvania Republican Party Pat Toomey Republican Party Pat Toomey No 1.4%
    Wisconsin Republican Party Ron Johnson Republican Party Ron Johnson No 3.4%

    This table displays the criteria used to determine competitiveness in more specific detail. It gives ranges for each criterion and the competitiveness associated with each. Each state was analyzed using this as a baseline to determine competitiveness.

    Color Key
    Color Margin of Victory (MOV) Presidential MOV % Term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    Purple – most competitive 0.0-4.9 0.0-4.9 1 Yes Toss-up
    Orange – very competitive 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 N/A N/A Lean D/R
    Green – competitive 8.0-10.0 8.0-10.0 2 N/A Likely D/R
    Senate winners labeled this color indicate that the party of the winner is different from the party of the presidential winner of the state in 2012

    The following races are those that were expected to be the closest in 2016.

    Most competitive 2016 Senate elections
    State Incumbent's party Senate MOV 2014 Senate MOV 2012 Senate MOV 2010 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    Florida Republican N/A 13.0 D 19.0 R ✓0.88 ✓2.82 1 No Toss-up
    Illinois Republican 10.8 D N/A 1.6 R ✓16.87 ✓25.14 1 No Lean D
    Indiana Republican N/A 5.8 R 14.6 R −10.2% ✓1.03 1 Yes Toss-up
    Missouri Republican N/A 15.7 D 13.6 R -9.38 -0.13 1 No Toss-up
    Nevada Democratic N/A 1.2 R 5.7 D ✓6.68 ✓12.49 5 Yes Toss-up
    New Hampshire Republican 3.3 D N/A 23.5 R ✓5.58 ✓9.61 1 No Toss-up
    North Carolina Republican 1.5 R N/A 11.8 R -2.04 ✓0.33 2 No Toss-up
    Pennsylvania Republican N/A 9.1. D 2.0 R ✓5.39 ✓10.32 1 No Toss-up
    Wisconsin Republican N/A 5.6 D 4.9 R ✓6.94 ✓13.90 1 No Lean D
    • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the state went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the state favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

    The following races were all expected to be at least somewhat close, but they were not considered among the most competitive races.

    Races to watch
    State Incumbent's party Senate MOV 2014 Senate MOV 2012 Senate MOV 2010 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    Arizona Republican N/A 3 R 24.2 R -9.06 -8.52 5 No Lean R
    Ohio Republican N/A 6.0 D 18.3 R ✓2.98 ✓4.59 1 No Toss-up
    • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the state went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the state favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.


    Race ratings

    U.S. Senate race ratings comparison
    State Ballotpedia Cook[10] Sabato[11] Rothenberg[12]
    Alabama Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Alaska Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Arizona Competitive R Lean R Likely R R Favored
    Arkansas Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    California Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    Colorado Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Connecticut Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    Florida Battleground Lean R Lean R Lean R
    Georgia Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Hawaii Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    Idaho Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Illinois Battleground Lean D Likely D Lean D
    Indiana Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Iowa Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Kansas Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Kentucky Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Louisiana Safe R Solid R Likely R Safe R
    Maryland Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    Missouri Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Nevada Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    New Hampshire Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    New York Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    North Carolina Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    North Dakota Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Ohio Competitive R Lean R Safe R R Favored
    Oklahoma Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Oregon Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    Pennsylvania Battleground Toss-up Lean D Pure Toss-up
    South Carolina Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    South Dakota Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Utah Safe R Solid R Safe R Safe R
    Vermont Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    Washington Safe D Solid D Safe D Safe D
    Wisconsin Battleground Toss-up Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D

    Senate finance

    DSCC and NRSC

    The NRSC and the DSCC are the two principal political groups that raise funds to elect congressional candidates. The monthly fundraising figures for each committee throughout the 2016 election cycle are displayed in the table below.

    DSCC and NRSC monthly fundraising
    Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee National Republican Senatorial Committee
    Report Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt
    Pre-General $7,671,405 $26,506,442 $9,451,267 $4,874,341 $9,963,007 $11,525,203 $10,745,974 $18,000,000
    October 2016 $18,961,824 $24,727,463 $28,286,304 $4,885,087 $30,582,624 $30,145,471 $12,308,170 $15,500,000
    September 2016 $8,531,469 $5,790,900 $34,051,943 $4,895,519 $6,453,897 $18,391,878 $11,871,018 $0
    August 2016 $7,550,155 $5,239,426 $31,311,375 $4,906,039 $4,156,722 $6,732,807 $23,808,999 $0
    July 2016 $8,615,293 $3,394,613 $29,000,646 $4,916,977 $6,526,968 $4,061,691 $26,385,084 $0
    June 2016 $7,177,846 $4,327,770 $23,779,966 $4,927,559 $5,277,446 $2,940,231 $23,919,807 $0
    May 2016 $6,135,207 $4,418,524 $20,929,890 $4,938,538 $4,279,583 $2,698,346 $21,582,592 $0
    April 2016 $8,247,122 $4,240,290 $19,213,208 $4,949,068 $6,158,856 $2,366,149 $20,001,356 $0
    March 2016 $6,189,828 $4,554,120 $15,206,377 $5,843,300 $4,803,627 $2,443,743 $16,208,649 $0
    February 2016 $5,794,776 $3,026,705 $13,570,668 $7,853,820 $3,881,567 $1,728,701 $13,848,765 $0
    Year-End $5,122,972 $4,434,118 $10,802,598 $8,357,872 $2,950,954 $2,520,839 $11,695,898 $0
    December 2015 $15,097,196 $14,617,106 $10,113,743 $10,107,872 $2,769,864 $1,808,779 $11,265,784 $0
    November 2015 $3,842,114 $3,429,118 $9,633,603 $10,620,834 $2,332,317 $1,896,335 $10,304,698 $0
    October 2015 $4,195,205 $3,778,422 $9,220,607 $11,783,630 $2,905,718 $2,905,718 $9,868,716 $0
    September 2015 $3,296,604 $3,708,043 $8,803,824 $12,946,388 $2,604,068 $2,224,471 $8,001,096 $0
    August 2015 $3,768,052 $3,448,388 $9,215,263 $14,109,109 $3,293,488 $2,155,025 $7,621,499 $0
    July 2015 $5,590,141 $4,496,832 $8,895,599 $15,271,793 $4,058,499 $3,884,614 $6,483,036 $0
    June 2015 $3,583,716 $3,400,797 $7,802,289 $16,434,440 $4,529,788 $3,222,919 $6,309,152 $2,000,000
    May 2015 $3,794,834 $3,327,627 $7,619,370 $17,597,049 $4,211,784 $4,465,644 $5,002,282 $3,500,000
    April 2015 $5,261,976 $3,628,245 $7,152,162 $18,759,622 $4,881,679 $3,943,807 $5,256,142 $6,000,000
    March 2015 $4,336,327 $1,431,790 $5,518,432 $20,026,324 $3,785,939 $3,551,848 $4,318,270 $8,000,000
    February 2015 $4,460,934 $2,760,538 $2,613,894 $20,042,990 $2,459,111 $1,080,720 $4,084,179 $10,000,000

    Prior elections

    DSCC and NRSC yearly fundraising
    Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee National Republican Senatorial Committee
    Year Total Receipts Total Expenditures Total Receipts Total Expenditures
    2014 $168,323,299 $169,219,761 $128,278,250 $128,953,251
    2012 $145,906,974 $144,850,609 $117,045,850 $113,783,377
    2010 $129,543,440 $129,086,443 $112,299,229 $112,528,479
    2008 $162,791,453 $162,558,225 $94,424,743 $93,786,078
    2006 $121,376,959 $121,670,095 $88,812,386 $89,717,855

    Presidential coattails

    Of the states that had Republican senators up for election, the senators’ average win was 3.2 percent higher than President-elect Donald Trump’s average win, according to preliminary vote totals.[13] Trump's average win was 55.4 percent, while Republican senators' average win was 58.6 percent.

    In Ballotpedia’s battleground races and races to watch, Republican Senators John McCain (Ariz.), Marco Rubio (Fla.), Richard Burr (N.C.), Pat Toomey (Pa.), and Ron Johnson (Wis.) ran ahead of Trump. Trump ran ahead of Senator-elect Todd Young (Ind.) and Senator Roy Blunt (Mo.).

    Trump lost Illinois, Nevada, and New Hampshire, and the Republican candidates also lost their races in those states. Senator Mark Kirk ran ahead of Trump in Illinois, Trump ran ahead of Rep. Joe Heck in Nevada, and Sen. Kelly Ayotte ran ahead of Trump in New Hampshire.

    Missouri Senator Roy Blunt saw the biggest coattails effect from Trump. Trump won 57.1 percent of the vote, while Blunt won 49.4 percent. In Ohio, Trump saw the largest reverse coattails from Senator Rob Portman, who won the state with 58.3 percent of the vote. Trump earned 52.1 percent of the vote in Ohio.

    A full breakdown of the presidential and Senate races appears below.

    *Ballotpedia identified the highlighted races as battleground races and races to watch. The vote percentages are from CNN and will be updated after the final results are released.

    2016 Republican Presidential and Senate election results
    State Presidential candidate vote % Senate candidate vote % Vote % Difference
    Alabama Donald Trump Incumbent Richard Shelby
    Totals 62.9% Approveda 64.2% Approveda Shelby +1.3%
    Alaska Donald Trump Incumbent Lisa Murkowski
    Totals 53.3% Approveda 43.8% Approveda Trump +9.5%
    Arizona Donald Trump Incumbent John McCain
    Totals 49.5% Approveda 53.4% Approveda McCain +3.9%
    Arkansas Donald Trump Incumbent John Boozman
    Totals 60.4% Approveda 59.8% Approveda Trump +0.6%
    Florida Donald Trump Incumbent Marco Rubio
    Totals 49.1% Approveda 52.1% Approveda Rubio +3.0%
    Georgia Donald Trump Incumbent Johnny Isakson
    Totals 51.4% Approveda 55.1% Approveda Isakson +3.7%
    Idaho Donald Trump Incumbent Mike Crapo
    Totals 59.0% Approveda 66.0% Approveda Crapo +7.0%
    Indiana Donald Trump Todd Young
    Totals 57.2% Approveda 52.2% Approveda Trump + 5.0%
    Iowa Donald Trump Incumbent Chuck Grassley
    Totals 51.7% Approveda 60.1% Approveda Grassley +8.4%
    Kansas Donald Trump Incumbent Jerry Moran
    Totals 57.2% Approveda 62.4% Approveda Moran +5.2%
    Kentucky Donald Trump Incumbent Rand Paul
    Totals 62.5% Approveda +57.3% Approveda Trump +5.2%
    Louisiana Donald Trump Multiple Republican candidates
    Totals 58.1% Approveda (Race not called) -
    Missouri Donald Trump Incumbent Roy Blunt
    Totals 57.1% Approveda 49.4% Approveda Trump +7.7%
    North Carolina Donald Trump Incumbent Richard Burr
    Totals 50.5% Approveda 51.1% Approveda Burr +0.6%
    North Dakota Donald Trump Incumbent John Hoeven
    Totals 64.1% Approveda 78.6% Approveda Hoeven +14.5%
    Ohio Donald Trump Incumbent Rob Portman
    Totals 52.1% Approveda 58.3% Approveda Portman +6.2%
    Oklahoma Donald Trump Incumbent James Lankford
    Totals 65.3% Approveda 67.7% Approveda Lankford +2.4%
    Pennsylvania Donald Trump Incumbent Pat Toomey
    Totals 48.8% Approveda 48.9% Approveda Toomey +0.1%
    South Carolina Donald Trump Incumbent Tim Scott
    Totals 55.6% Approveda 61.2% Approveda Scott +5.6%
    South Dakota Donald Trump Incumbent John Thune
    Totals 61.5% Approveda 71.8% Approveda Thune +10.3%
    Utah Donald Trump Incumbent Mike Lee
    Totals 45.5% Approveda 67.4% Approveda Lee +21.9%
    Wisconsin Donald Trump Incumbent Ron Johnson
    Totals 47.9% Approveda 50.2% Approveda Johnson +2.3%
    California Donald Trump No Republican on the ballot
    Totals 33.3% Defeatedd No Republican on the ballot -
    Colorado Donald Trump Darryl Glenn
    Totals 44.8% Defeatedd 45.8% Defeatedd Glenn +1.0%
    Connecticut Donald Trump Dan Carter
    Totals 41.6% Defeatedd 35.3% Defeatedd Trump +6.3%
    Hawaii Donald Trump John Carroll
    Totals 30.1% Defeatedd 22.2% Defeatedd Trump +7.9%
    Illinois Donald Trump Incumbent Mark Kirk
    Totals 39.4% Defeatedd 40.2% Defeatedd Kirk +0.8%
    Maryland Donald Trump Kathy Szeliga
    Totals 35.3% Defeatedd 36.4% Defeatedd Szeliga +1.1%
    Nevada Donald Trump Joe Heck
    Totals 45.5% Defeatedd 44.7% Defeatedd Trump +0.8%
    New Hampshire Donald Trump Incumbent Kelly Ayotte
    Totals 47.2% Defeatedd 47.9% Defeatedd Ayotte +0.7%
    New York Donald Trump Wendy Long
    Totals 37.5% Defeatedd 27.5% Defeatedd Trump +10.0%
    Oregon Donald Trump Mark Callahan
    Totals 41.3% Defeatedd 33.9% Defeatedd Trump +7.4%
    Vermont Donald Trump Scott Milne
    Totals 32.6% Defeatedd 33.0% Defeatedd Milne +0.4%
    Washington Donald Trump Chris Vance
    Totals 37.7% Defeatedd 39.2% Defeatedd Vance +1.5%
    Totals Trump's average win: 55.4% Republican senators' average win: 58.6% Republican senators +3.2%

    U.S. House overview

    See also: United States House of Representatives elections, 2016

    Prior to the election, The Republican Party had the majority in the U.S. House. Republicans held 246 seats compared to Democrats' 186 seats, while three seats were vacant. The Republican Party's majority was slightly reduced in 2016, as Democrats picked up six seats.

    U.S. House Partisan Breakdown
    Party As of November 2016 After the 2016 Election
         Democratic Party 186 194
         Republican Party 246 241
         Vacant 3 0
    Total 435 435


    Battlegrounds

    This table shows what happened in each of the 23 House battleground races.

    United States House Battleground Results
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch? Margin of victory
    Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran No 7.3%
    California's 7th Democratic Party Ami Bera Democratic Party Ami Bera No 2.3%
    California's 25th Republican Party Stephen Knight Republican Party Stephen Knight No 6.3%
    California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Republican Party Darrell Issa No 0.5%
    Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Republican Party Mike Coffman No 8.3%
    Florida's 7th Republican Party John Mica Democratic Party Stephanie Murphy Yes 3%
    Florida's 18th Democratic Party Patrick Murphy Republican Party Brian Mast Yes 10.5%
    Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Republican Party Carlos Curbelo No 11.8%
    Illinois' 10th Republican Party Robert Dold Democratic Party Brad Schneider Yes 5.2%
    Iowa's 1st Republican Party Rod Blum Republican Party Rod Blum No 7.7%
    Maine's 2nd Republican Party Bruce Poliquin Republican Party Bruce Poliquin No 9.6%
    Michigan's 1st Republican Party Dan Benishek Republican Party Jack Bergman No 14.8%
    Minnesota's 2nd Republican Party John Kline Republican Party Jason Lewis No 1.8%
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic Party Brad Ashford Republican Party Don Bacon Yes 1.2%
    Nevada's 3rd Republican Party Joe Heck Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Yes 1.3%
    Nevada's 4th Republican Party Cresent Hardy Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen Yes 4%
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican Party Frank Guinta Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Yes 1.3%
    New Jersey's 5th Republican Party Scott Garrett Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes 4.4%
    New York's 19th Republican Party Chris Gibson Republican Party John Faso No 8.6%
    New York's 22nd Republican Party Richard Hanna Republican Party Claudia Tenney No 5.5%
    Pennsylvania's 8th Republican Party Michael G. Fitzpatrick Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick No 8.9%
    Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd No 1.3%
    Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Republican Party Barbara Comstock No 5.8%

    Expected seat changes

    These are districts where a change in party was expected due to court-ordered redistricting that occurred earlier in the election cycle. These races were not rated as battlegrounds because they were likely to flip control.

    United States House Redistricting Flips
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch?
    Florida's 2nd Democratic Party Gwen Graham Republican Party Neal Dunn Yes
    Florida's 10th Republican Party Daniel Webster Democratic Party Val Demings Yes
    Florida's 13th Republican Party David Jolly Democratic Party Charlie Crist Yes
    Virginia's 4th Republican Party Randy Forbes Democratic Party Donald McEachin Yes

    Defeated incumbents

    The following table shows the incumbents who sought re-election but were defeated in the general election.

    United States House Defeated Incumbents
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch?
    California's 17th Democratic Party Mike Honda Democratic Party Ro Khanna No
    Florida's 7th Republican Party John Mica Democratic Party Stephanie Murphy Yes
    Florida's 13th Republican Party David Jolly Democratic Party Charlie Crist Yes
    Illinois' 10th Republican Party Robert Dold Democratic Party Brad Schneider Yes
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic Party Brad Ashford Republican Party Don Bacon Yes
    Nevada's 4th Republican Party Cresent Hardy Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen Yes
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican Party Frank Guinta Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Yes
    New Jersey's 5th Republican Party Scott Garrett Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes

    Margin of victory

    The following table shows the margin of victory for each race winner, which is calculated by examining the percentage difference between the two candidates who received the most votes. If the race was uncontested, the margin of victory is listed as 100%. These results are unofficial and will be updated once official vote totals are in. In 2016, the average margin of victory in U.S. House races was 36.7 percent. This is very close to the average of 35.8 percent in 2014.

    Retired incumbents

    A total of 40 incumbents chose not to seek re-election in 2016. Some of those were due to retirement, while others chose to seek higher office instead.

    The following members of the U.S. House chose to retire rather than seek re-election in 2016.

    • Democratic Party 8 Democrats
    • Republican Party 19 Republicans
    Name:Party:Current office:
    Ander CrenshawEnds.png Republican Florida, District 4
    Candice MillerEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 10
    Charles B. RangelElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 13
    Chris GibsonEnds.png Republican New York, District 19
    Curt ClawsonEnds.png Republican Florida, District 19
    Cynthia LummisEnds.png Republican U.S. House, Wyoming
    Dan BenishekEnds.png Republican Michigan, District 1
    Gwen GrahamElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 2
    Janice HahnNonpartisan Los Angeles County Board of Supervisors, District 4
    Jeff MillerEnds.png Republican Florida, District 1
    Jim McDermottElectiondot.png Democratic Washington, District 7
    John KlineEnds.png Republican Minnesota, District 2
    Joseph R. PittsEnds.png Republican Pennsylvania, District 16
    Lois CappsElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 24
    Lynn A. WestmorelandEnds.png Republican Georgia, District 3
    Matt SalmonEnds.png Republican Arizona, District 5
    Michael G. FitzpatrickEnds.png Republican Pennsylvania, District 8
    Randy NeugebauerEnds.png Republican Texas, District 19
    Reid RibbleEnds.png Republican Wisconsin, District 8
    Richard L. HannaEnds.png Republican New York, District 22
    Richard B. NugentEnds.png Republican Florida, District 11
    Robert HurtEnds.png Republican Virginia, District 5
    Rubén HinojosaElectiondot.png Democratic Texas, District 15
    Sam FarrElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 20
    Scott RigellEnds.png Republican Virginia, District 2
    Stephen Lee FincherEnds.png Republican Tennessee
    Steve IsraelElectiondot.png Democratic New York, District 3

    Incumbents who sought higher office

    The following incumbents did not seek re-election to the U.S. House. They instead sought election to another office in 2016.

    U.S. Senate

    • Democratic Party 6 Democrats
    • Republican Party 5 Republicans
    Name:Party:Current office:
    Alan GraysonElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 11
    Ann KirkpatrickElectiondot.png Democratic Arizona, District 2
    Charles Boustany Jr.Ends.png Republican Louisiana, District 3
    Chris Van HollenElectiondot.png Democratic Maryland
    Donna EdwardsElectiondot.png Democratic Maryland, District 4
    Joe HeckEnds.png Republican Nevada, District 3
    John FlemingEnds.png Republican Louisiana, District 4
    Loretta SanchezElectiondot.png Democratic California, District 46
    Marlin A. StutzmanEnds.png Republican Indiana, District 3
    Patrick MurphyElectiondot.png Democratic Florida, District 18
    Tammy DuckworthElectiondot.png Democratic Illinois
    Todd C. YoungEnds.png Republican Indiana

    Governor

    • Democratic Party 1 Democrats
    • Republican Party 0 Republicans
    Name:Party:Current office:
    John C. Carney Jr.Electiondot.png Democratic Governor of Delaware

    House battlegrounds

    The map below highlights the 23 districts that were designated as battlegrounds in 2016.

    The purple districts on the Census district map were those found to be battlegrounds in Ballotpedia's study.

    The following table displays the results of the election in each battleground district.

    United States House Battleground Results
    District Incumbent Winner Partisan switch? Margin of victory
    Arizona's 1st Democratic Party Ann Kirkpatrick Democratic Party Tom O'Halleran No 7.3%
    California's 7th Democratic Party Ami Bera Democratic Party Ami Bera No 2.3%
    California's 25th Republican Party Stephen Knight Republican Party Stephen Knight No 6.3%
    California's 49th Republican Party Darrell Issa Republican Party Darrell Issa No 0.5%
    Colorado's 6th Republican Party Mike Coffman Republican Party Mike Coffman No 8.3%
    Florida's 7th Republican Party John Mica Democratic Party Stephanie Murphy Yes 3%
    Florida's 18th Democratic Party Patrick Murphy Republican Party Brian Mast Yes 10.5%
    Florida's 26th Republican Party Carlos Curbelo Republican Party Carlos Curbelo No 11.8%
    Illinois' 10th Republican Party Robert Dold Democratic Party Brad Schneider Yes 5.2%
    Iowa's 1st Republican Party Rod Blum Republican Party Rod Blum No 7.7%
    Maine's 2nd Republican Party Bruce Poliquin Republican Party Bruce Poliquin No 9.6%
    Michigan's 1st Republican Party Dan Benishek Republican Party Jack Bergman No 14.8%
    Minnesota's 2nd Republican Party John Kline Republican Party Jason Lewis No 1.8%
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic Party Brad Ashford Republican Party Don Bacon Yes 1.2%
    Nevada's 3rd Republican Party Joe Heck Democratic Party Jacky Rosen Yes 1.3%
    Nevada's 4th Republican Party Cresent Hardy Democratic Party Ruben Kihuen Yes 4%
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican Party Frank Guinta Democratic Party Carol Shea-Porter Yes 1.3%
    New Jersey's 5th Republican Party Scott Garrett Democratic Party Josh Gottheimer Yes 4.4%
    New York's 19th Republican Party Chris Gibson Republican Party John Faso No 8.6%
    New York's 22nd Republican Party Richard Hanna Republican Party Claudia Tenney No 5.5%
    Pennsylvania's 8th Republican Party Michael G. Fitzpatrick Republican Party Brian Fitzpatrick No 8.9%
    Texas' 23rd Republican Party Will Hurd Republican Party Will Hurd No 1.3%
    Virginia's 10th Republican Party Barbara Comstock Republican Party Barbara Comstock No 5.8%

    This table displays the initial criteria used to determine competitiveness in more specific detail. It gives ranges for each criterion and the competitiveness associated with them. Each district was analyzed using this as a baseline to determine competitiveness.

    Color Key
    Color Margin of Victory (MOV) Presidential MOV % Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    Purple – most competitive 0.0-4.9 0.0-4.9 1 Yes Toss-up
    Orange – very competitive 5.0-7.9 5.0-7.9 2-3 N/A Lean D/R
    Green – competitive 8.0-10.0 8.0-10.0 4-5 N/A Likely D/R
    House winners labeled this color indicate the party of the winner being different from the party of the presidential winner of the state in 2012

    The following races are those that were expected to be the closest in 2016.

    Most competitive 2016 House elections
    District Incumbent's party District MOV 2014 District MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    Arizona's 1st Democratic 5.2 3.6 -2.5 -3.2 2 Yes Lean D
    California's 7th Democratic 0.8 3.4 ✓4.0 ✓5.0 2 No Lean D
    California's 25th Republican 6.7 9.6 -1.9 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
    California's 49th Republican 20.3 16.3 -6.7 ✓1.0 8 No Toss Up
    Colorado's 6th Republican 8.9 2.0 ✓5.1 ✓8.7 4 No Toss Up
    Florida's 7th Republican 31.5 17.4 -4.7 -0.8 11 No Toss Up
    Florida's 18th Democratic 19.6 0.6 -4.1 ✓3.1 2 Yes Toss Up
    Florida's 26th Republican 2.9 10.6 ✓6.7 -0.4 1 No Toss Up
    Illinois' 10th Republican 2.6 1.3 ✓16.4 ✓27.1 1 No Toss Up
    Iowa's 1st Republican 2.3 15.4 ✓13.7 ✓18.1 1 No Toss Up
    Maine's 2nd Republican 5.0 15.7 ✓9.0 ✓12 1 No Toss Up
    Michigan's 1st Republican 6.9 0.5 -8.3 ✓1.3 3 Yes Lean R
    Minnesota's 2nd Republican 17.2 8.2 ✓0.1 ✓2.9 7 Yes Toss-up
    Nebraska's 2nd Democratic 3.3 1.6 -7.0 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
    Nevada's 3rd Republican 24.6 7.5 ✓0.8 ✓8.9 3 Yes Toss Up
    Nevada's 4th Republican 2.8 8.0 ✓10.7 ✓15.0 1 No Lean D
    New Hampshire's 1st Republican 3.6 3.8 ✓1.6 ✓6.4 1 No Lean D
    New Jersey's 5th Republican 12.1 12.3 -3.1 -2.0 7 No Toss-up
    New York's 19th Republican 28.1 5.3 ✓6.2 ✓8.0 3 Yes Toss Up
    New York's 22nd Republican 48.1 19.9 -0.4 0.0 3 Yes Toss Up
    Pennsylvania's 8th Republican 23.8 13.2 -0.1 ✓7.5 3 Yes Toss Up
    Texas' 23rd Republican 2.1 4.8 -2.6 ✓1.0 1 No Toss Up
    Virginia's 10th Republican 16.1 19.7 -1.1 ✓2.8 1 No Toss Up
    • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.

    The following races were all expected to be at least somewhat close, but they were not considered among the most competitive races.

    Races to watch
    District Incumbent's Party District MOV 2014 District MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2012 Presidential MOV 2008 Incumbent term in office Open seat? Cook rating
    California's 10th Republican 12.3 5.4 ✓3.6 ✓3.0 3 No Toss Up
    California's 24th Democratic 3.9 10.2 ✓11 ✓15 9 Yes Lean D
    Florida's 13th Republican 50.5 15.1 ✓1.5 ✓3.8 22 Yes Lean D
    Indiana's 9th Republican 28.5 10.9 -16.5 -6.5 2 Yes Lean R
    Iowa's 3rd Republican 10.5 8.6 ✓4.2 ✓6.1 1 No Lean R
    Kansas' 3rd Republican 20 36.9 -9.5 -1.1 2 No Lean R
    Michigan's 7th Republican 12.3 10.3 -3.1 ✓3.4 3 No Lean R
    Minnesota's 3rd Republican 24.4 16.3 ✓0.8 ✓3.6 3 No Lean R
    Minnesota's 8th Democratic 1.4 8.9 ✓5.5 ✓8.6 2 No Lean D
    New York's 1st Republican 8.7 4.6 ✓0.5 ✓3.0 1 No Lean R
    New York's 3rd Democratic 9.2 5.0 ✓2.6 ✓8.0 2 Yes Likely D
    New York's 24th Republican 18.8 5.3 ✓15.9 ✓14.0 1 No Lean R
    Utah's 4th Republican 3.3 0.3 -37 -15.2 1 No Lean R
    Wisconsin's 8th Republican 30.1 12 -3.7 ✓8.7 3 Yes Lean R
    • Both the 2012 and 2008 presidential MOV have either "✓" or "-" before the number. The "✓" indicates the district went in favor of the winner, in both years this was President Obama. The "-" indicates the district favored the Republican who lost in each election, Romney in 2012 and McCain in 2008.


    Race ratings

    U.S. House race ratings comparison
    District Ballotpedia Cook[14] Sabato[15] Rothenberg[16]
    Alaska's At-Large Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R
    Arizona's 1st Battleground Lean D Lean D Lean D
    Arizona's 2nd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    California's 7th Battleground Lean D Lean D Lean D
    California's 10th Competitive R Toss-up Toss-up Lean R
    California's 21st Safe R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    California's 24th Competitive D Lean D Lean D D Favored
    California's 25th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up R Favored
    California's 49th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Colorado's 3rd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    Colorado's 6th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Florida's 2nd[17] Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Florida's 7th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt D
    Florida's 10th[17] Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Florida's 13th Competitive D Lean D Lean D Lean D
    Florida's 18th Battleground Lean R Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Florida's 26th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Florida's 27th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Illinois' 10th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Illinois' 12th Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    Indiana's 2nd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    Indiana's 9th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Iowa's 1st Battleground Toss-up Lean D Pure Toss-up
    Iowa's 3rd Competitive R Lean R Lean R Toss-up/Tilt R
    Kansas' 3rd Competitive R Lean R Lean R Lean R
    Maine's 2nd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Maryland's 6th Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Michigan's 1st Battleground Lean R Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Michigan's 7th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Michigan's 8th Safe R Lean R Likely R Safe R
    Minnesota's 2nd Battleground Toss-up Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    Minnesota's 3rd Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Minnesota's 8th Competitive D Toss-up Lean D Lean D
    Montana's At-Large Safe R Likely R Likely R R Favored
    Nebraska's 2nd Battleground Toss-up Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    Nevada's 3rd Battleground Toss-up Lean D Pure Toss-up
    Nevada's 4th Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    New Hampshire's 1st Battleground Lean D Lean D Toss-up/Tilt D
    New Jersey's 3rd Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    New Jersey's 5th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt D
    New York's 1st Competitive R Lean R Lean R Lean R
    New York's 3rd Competitive D Likely D Likely D Lean D
    New York's 19th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    New York's 21st Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    New York's 22nd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    New York's 23rd Safe R Likely R Likely R Safe R
    New York's 24th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    New York's 25th Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Pennsylvania's 6th Safe R Likely R Safe R Safe R
    Pennsylvania's 8th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Pennsylvania's 16th Safe R Lean R Lean R Safe R
    Texas' 23rd Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Pure Toss-up
    Utah's 4th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored
    Virginia's 4th[17] Safe D Likely D Safe D Safe D
    Virginia's 5th Safe R Likely R Lean R R Favored
    Virginia's 10th Battleground Toss-up Toss-up Toss-up/Tilt R
    Wisconsin's 8th Competitive R Lean R Lean R R Favored

    House primary competitiveness

    Primary competitiveness measures the percentage of primary elections in which voters actually have a choice to make. In most cases, this means those primaries in which there are two or more candidates running. However, in states that use a top-two primary system, a primary must have at least three candidates running to be considered contested. Candidates who have declared write-in campaigns are not enough for a race to be considered contested.

    In 2016, 44.53 percent of all major party primaries were contested. If you exclude California and Washington, the two states that use a top-two primary system, 41.53 percent of primaries were contested. As in the past several election cycles, Republican candidates faced significantly more primary opposition than Democratic ones. In Republican contests, 46.17 percent of primaries were contested, while 36.89 percent of Democratic primaries were contested.

    Incumbents sought re-election in 90 percent of U.S. House districts. Party made no real difference in the percentage of incumbents who sought re-election. However, as was the case in overall primary races, Republican incumbents were more likely to face a primary challenger than Democratic incumbents. In Republican primary races featuring an incumbent, 52.25 percent of races were contested, while 44.71 percent of Democratic incumbents seeking re-election faced a primary challenger. Only five incumbents were defeated in primary elections in 2016. This amounts to 1.3 percent, which is average over the past decade.

    The map below displays the percentage of contested primary races in each state.
    • Filing deadline data is being used for states that haven't yet held their primaries. Slight inaccuracies may arise if filed candidates withdraw prior to the primary.
    • Louisiana doesn't hold a primary. All candidates compete in the general election and a runoff is held if no candidate secures at least 50% of the vote.

    Full data regarding general competitiveness and competition in races involving an incumbent can be found in the tables below.


    Defeated incumbents

    Congressional incumbents defeated in primaries.PNG

    Five incumbent members of Congress lost their primary elections in 2016—a slightly higher number than the past decade's average. This slight increase can be explained by the court-ordered redistricting that took place in several states. Redistricting played a role in three of the five incumbent losses, one of which was an incumbent-versus-incumbent battle.

    Redistricting also explains why so many incumbents were defeated in the primaries in 2012, the first election after maps were redrawn following the 2010 census. In 2012, eight incumbent members of Congress lost to another incumbent in the primary as a direct result of redistricting.

    Chaka Fattah

    Chaka Fattah

    Chaka Fattah was the first incumbent to lose a primary in 2016. He was defeated by Dwight Evans in the Democratic primary on April 26, 2016. Heading into the election, Fattah—who had represented Pennsylvania's 2nd Congressional District from 1994 until his resignation on June 23, 2016—had been made vulnerable due to an indictment in 2015 on charges including bribery, money laundering, and bank and mail fraud. Fattah was ultimately convicted of all charges in June, and he resigned shortly thereafter.[18][19][20][21]

    U.S. House, Pennsylvania District 2 Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngDwight Evans 42.3% 75,515
    Chaka Fattah Incumbent 34.4% 61,518
    Brian Gordon 13.2% 23,655
    Dan Muroff 10.1% 18,016
    Total Votes 178,704
    Source: Pennsylvania Department of State

    Renee Ellmers

    Renee Ellmers

    Renee Ellmers was the second incumbent to fall in 2016. Ellmers was defeated by fellow GOP incumbent George Holding—who represented the 13th Congressional District heading into the election—in North Carolina's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary. Redistricting altered both districts significantly, causing Holding to seek election in the 2nd District. Heading into the primary, Holding was a clear favorite. He had the backing of a number of Republican organizations, including Americans for Prosperity, FreedomWorks, and the Club for Growth. However, Ellmers did secure a late endorsement from Donald Trump. Holding easily defeated Ellmers, receiving over twice as many votes.[22][23][24][23][25]

    U.S. House, North Carolina District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngGeorge Holding Incumbent 53.4% 17,084
    Renee Ellmers Incumbent 23.6% 7,552
    Greg Brannon 23% 7,359
    Total Votes 31,995
    Source: North Carolina State Board of Elections

    Randy Forbes

    Randy Forbes

    Randy Forbes was defeated in Virginia's 2nd Congressional District Republican primary on June 14, 2016, by state Delegate Scott Taylor. Forbes, who represented the 4th Congressional District heading into the election, chose to seek election in District 2 after redistricting left his seat as a likely Democratic pickup in the general election. Forbes chose the 2nd District because it was open following incumbent Scott Rigell's decision not to seek re-election. The switch left Forbes vulnerable; since the region was entirely outside of his prior constituency, he was portrayed as an outsider. As a result, Taylor easily defeated Forbes by a margin of nearly 12 percent.[26][27]

    U.S. House, Virginia District 2 Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngScott Taylor 52.6% 21,406
    Randy Forbes Incumbent 40.6% 16,552
    Pat Cardwell 6.8% 2,773
    Total Votes 40,731
    Source: Virginia Department of Elections

    Tim Huelskamp

    Tim Huelskamp

    Tim Huelskamp was defeated in Kansas' 1st Congressional District Republican primary on August 2, 2016, by physician Roger Marshall. Huelskamp lost by a significant margin of 13 percent. Outside groups took an interest in the primary battle between Huelskamp and Marshall. In a reversal of the usual narrative, Huelskamp, the incumbent, was supported by the more conservative, anti-establishment wing of the Republican Party, while the challenger, Marshall, received the backing of groups normally associated with establishment Republicans. Huelskamp was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the Club for Growth, while Marshall received endorsements from the Kansas Farm Bureau and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce.[28][29]

    U.S. House, Kansas District 1 Republican Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngRoger Marshall 56.6% 59,889
    Tim Huelskamp Incumbent 43.4% 45,997
    Total Votes 105,886
    Source: Kansas Secretary of State

    Corrine Brown

    Corrine Brown

    Corrine Brown was defeated in Florida's 5th Congressional District Democratic primary on August 30, 2016, by former state Sen. Al Lawson. Brown was defeated by a margin of roughly 8 percent. Multiple factors made Brown unusually vulnerable in 2016: she was indicted earlier in the year on "charges of mail and wire fraud, conspiracy, obstruction and filing of false tax returns," and she also only represented roughly 38 percent of the newly drawn 5th District.[30]

    U.S. House, Florida District 5 Democratic Primary, 2016
    Candidate Vote % Votes
    Green check mark transparent.pngAl Lawson 47.6% 39,306
    Corrine Brown Incumbent 39% 32,235
    L.J. Holloway 13.4% 11,048
    Total Votes 82,589
    Source: Florida Division of Elections


    House finance

    DCCC and NRCC

    The NRCC and the DCCC are the two principal political groups that raise funds to elect congressional candidates. The monthly fundraising figures for each committee throughout the 2016 election cycle are displayed in the table below.

    DCCC and NRCC monthly fundraising
    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee
    Report Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt Receipts Expenditures Cash on hand Debt
    Pre-General $10,205,210 $34,126,554 $21,612,756 $0 $8,345,840 $28,406,074 $26,525,016 $0
    October 2016 $21,104,886 $38,748,576 $45,534,100 $0 $9,864,610 $28,723,765 $46,585,251 $0
    September 2016 $10,999,108 $9,769,721 $63,177,790 $0 $6,658,396 $5,259,604 $65,444,406 $0
    August 2016 $11,986,005 $7,313,148 $61,948,402 $0 $4,559,861 $3,811,379 $64,045,614 $0
    July 2016 $12,082,519 $6,001,526 $57,275,546 $0 $9,344,238 $2,879,015 $63,297,132 $0
    June 2016 $8,080,123 $5,012,480 $51,194,552 $0 $6,156,967 $2,360,778 $56,831,909 $0
    May 2016 $8,585,572 $4,574,142 $48,126,909 $0 $5,354,797 $2,308,889 $53,035,719 $0
    April 2016 $11,321,340 $4,241,723 $44,115,479 $0 $13,965,932 $3,016,854 $49,989,811 $0
    March 2016 $7,149,636 $3,287,942 $37,035,862 $0 $6,333,745 $1,948,367 $39,040,733 $0
    February 2016 $6,431,034 $2,578,738 $33,174,169 $0 $6,483,827 $1,938,307 $34,655,355 $0
    Year-End $6,701,116 $3,557,846 $29,321,872 $0 $8,646,968 $2,222,889 $30,109,835 $0
    December 2015 $4,564,220 $2,807,311 $26,178,602 $0 $2,689,708 $1,942,546 $23,685,756 $0
    November 2015 $5,399,657 $2,739,869 $24,421,693 $0 $5,058,306 $1,957,888 $22,938,594 $0
    October 2015 $6,622,268 $2,560,458 $21,761,905 $0 $3,325,054 $1,785,457 $19,838,176 $0
    September 2015 $4,154,282 $2,608,496 $17,700,095 $0 $2,925,212 $1,907,428 $18,298,579 $0
    August 2015 $4,392,802 $2,669,171 $16,154,309 $0 $3,699,315 $1,821,067 $17,280,795 $0
    July 2015 $6,905,366 $2,591,313 $14,430,678 $0 $7,263,127 $2,525,676 $15,402,546 $0
    June 2015 $4,417,024 $2,487,277 $10,116,625 $0 $3,746,619 $2,302,242 $10,665,096 $0
    May 2015 $5,363,859 $6,455,002 $8,186,878 $0 $5,089,342 $2,805,149 $9,220,720 $0
    April 2015 $8,182,885 $5,260,418 $9,278,020 $4,000,000 $17,310,849 $16,708,324 $6,936,526 $0
    March 2015 $5,157,461 $5,653,299 $6,355,553 $6,500,000 $5,047,436 $2,327,080 $6,334,001 $7,000,000
    February 2015 $6,376,209 $1,674,255 $6,851,392 $10,000,000 $4,448,611 $2,312,236 $3,613,645 $7,500,000

    Prior elections

    DCCC and NRCC yearly fundraising
    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee National Republican Congressional Committee
    Year Total Receipts Total Expenditures Total Receipts Total Expenditures
    2014 $206,791,979 $206,130,764 $153,488,110 $153,545,450
    2012 $183,843,028 $183,160,429 $155,724,601 $156,728,295
    2010 $163,896,040 $163,582,271 $133,779,108 $132,098,654
    2008 $176,204,612 $176,518,249 $118,324,756 $118,226,373
    2006 $139,994,367 $140,876,916 $176,300,627 $178,063,132

    Party targets

    See also: National Republican Congressional Committee

    The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) focuses on building and maintaining a Republican majority in the U.S. House of Representatives.[31]

    NRCC targets

    The following Democratic incumbents were announced as targets by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) heading into 2016.[32]

    National Republican Congressional Committee, Targeted incumbents
    District Incumbent Open seat?[33]
    Arizona's 1st District Ann Kirkpatrick Yes
    Arizona's 9th District Kyrsten Sinema No
    California's 3rd District John Garamendi No
    California's 7th District Ami Bera No
    California's 26th District Julia Brownley No
    California's 31st District Pete Aguilar No
    California's 36th District Raul Ruiz No
    California's 52nd District Scott Peters No
    Connecticut's 5th District Elizabeth Esty No
    Florida's 2nd District Gwen Graham No
    Florida's 18th District Patrick Murphy Yes
    Illinois' 17th District Cheri Bustos No
    Minnesota's 7th District Collin Peterson No
    Minnesota's 8th District Rick Nolan No
    Nebraska's 2nd District Brad Ashford No
    New Hampshire's 2nd District Ann McLane Kuster No
    New Mexico's 3rd District Ben Ray Lujan No
    New York's 3rd District Steve Israel No
    New York's 18th District Sean Maloney No

    Patriot Program

    The NRCC's Patriot Program is designed to help raise money and assist vulnerable incumbents seeking re-election. NRCC Chairman Greg Walden said of those in the program:

    “ Our new Patriots have just shown that they know what it takes to run aggressive, organized, and winning campaigns. They have hit the ground running here in Washington and are tirelessly working hard to help grow the economy and fight for the hard working families and small businesses in their districts. I am proud to call them colleagues and am looking forward to helping ensure that they are able to win re-election and continue to serve beyond 2016.[34][35][36] ”

    Young Guns

    The Young Guns program "supports and mentors challenger and open-seat candidates in races across the country." NRCC Chairman Greg Walden said of the initial candidates of the program, "These 32 candidates all provide a stark contrast to their liberal opponents, whose support of bigger government, more spending and President Obama’s job-destroying agenda have steered our country down a dangerous path. With working families still struggling in this weak economy and our national security under increasing threats, we must elect more Republicans to Congress who will work to strengthen our nation. I am confident that these candidates will continue to work hard for their communities and build strong campaigns as we head into the election year."[37][38][39]

    DCCC

    See also: Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee

    The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) supports campaigns of Democratic candidates for the U.S. House.[31]

    DCCC Frontline

    The DCCC's Frontline program is designed to assist Democratic incumbents who represent vulnerable districts. Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said of the program,

    “ Each one of these members knows what it takes to win tough elections: working hard, standing up for your district, and not taking anything for granted. We are adding them to our Frontline Program, led by Representative Dan Kildee, to maximize their resources and ensure they are able to keep fighting to strengthen middle class economics. You don’t add by subtracting, so the success of our Members is integral to our plan to stay on offense in 2016.[40][36] ”

    The DCCC announced 14 members of the 2016 Frontline Program on February 12, 2015. The following table displays the 2016 members of the Frontline Program.[41]

    Red to Blue

    The DCCC's Red to Blue program exists to highlight Democratic challengers in competitive House races. Chairman Ben Ray Lujan said of the program,

    “ House Democrats are on offense and will pick up seats in November, and these talented and diverse candidates are the foundation of our success. From their campaign teams, to their field game, to their engagement of supporters and voters in their districts, these candidates are ready to take the fight to House Republicans. The American people deserve a House of Representatives that fights for progress and prosperity, not obstruction.[42][36] ”

    Emerging Races is the second tier of the Red to Blue program. According to the DCCC, it includes the districts "where campaigns are on track and working hard to put seats in play."[42]

    Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Emerging Races 2016
    District Candidate Open seat?[33]
    Alaska's At-Large District Steve Lindbeck No
    Arizona's 2nd District Matt Heinz No
    California's 21st District Emilio Huerta No
    Illinois' 12th District C.J. Baricevic No
    Indiana's 2nd District Lynn Coleman No
    Michigan's 6th District Paul Clements No
    South Carolina's 5th District Fran Person No

    Presidential impact

    Presidential elections have a large impact on congressional elections, the most obvious of which is increased voter interest and participation. In the last two decades, presidential elections have led to roughly 15 to 20 percent higher turnout rates than in the corresponding midterm.[43] The following chart shows the disparity between voter turnout in presidential elections and midterms.

    Voter turnout comparison.JPG

    In the past decade, presidential elections have benefited the Democratic Party, while midterms have helped Republicans. The Democratic Party gained an average of five Senate seats and 16 House seats in the last two presidential elections, and the Republican Party picked up an average of 7.5 Senate seats and 38.5 House seats in the last two midterms.[44]

    Past partisan breakdowns
    Senate House
    Year Democrats Republicans Independents[45] Net change Democrats Republicans Net change
    2014 44 54 2 +9 R 188 247 +13 R
    2012 53 45 2 +2 D 201 234 +8 D
    2010 51 47 2 +6 R 193 242 +64 R
    2008 57 41 2 +8 D 257 178 +24 D
    2006 49 49 2 +5 D 233 202 +22 D

    Can Democrats reclaim the House?

    Despite the large Republican majority in the House, a major collapse due to Donald Trump's presidential campaign could have put the House back in play in 2016. This section highlights what was said by pundits on the possibility of Democrats gaining control of Congress.

    • John Sides (The Washington Post) - October 18, 2016: "This model currently predicts that the Democrats will control 204 seats after the 2016 election. That is 16 more than they had after the 2014 election. The margin of error associated with that is plus or minus 8 seats. That forecast implies a very small chance — less than 1 percent — that the Democrats could win the 218 or more seats needed for a majority."[46]
    • Sean Trende (RealClear Politics) - October 8, 2016: "What’s more interesting is the House. When Trump first secured the nomination in March, analysts speculated that he could flip the chamber to Democrats. That speculation subsided over the spring and summer, as Trump’s vote share held and Democratic recruiting efforts sputtered. As of today, RealClearPolitics has Republicans favored to lose about 15 House seats – a significant loss, but not enough to flip control."[47]
    • Jeff Stein (Vox) - October 8, 2016: "But one political analyst I interviewed earlier this campaign thinks an epic Trump collapse might be enough to overcome that built-in advantage. Geoffrey Skelley, of the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics, argues that a Clinton victory of 6 points or more might be enough to put the House back in play."[48]
    • Nate Cohn (The New York Times) - August 23, 2016: "It would not be surprising if the Republican House majority lasted for at least a decade. The structural advantages underpinning it are that strong. The odds of a Clinton presidency are strong, too — and a Democratic White House would probably strengthen the Republican hold on the House, given the tendency for the president’s party to struggle down-ballot. If Democrats are going to retake the House anytime soon, November would probably be their best shot, and as of now it’s not happening."[49]
    • David Wasserman (The Cook Political Report) - June 20, 2016: "At the moment, the likeliest outcome seems like a Democratic gain of five to 20 seats (the Cook Political Report rates 22 GOP-held seats as Toss Up, Lean Democratic or Likely Democratic, compared with four Democratic seats in Toss Up, Lean Republican and Likely Republican). In other words, the first few GOP targets are very winnable for Democrats, but the last few needed for a majority would require a wave."[50]


    Election issues

    Presidential race

    Both Donald Trump and Hillary Clinton were ascribed negative attributes and were strongly opposed by certain demographics. Due to the unpopularity of these presidential candidates, many congressional candidates sought to tie their opponent to the top of his or her party's ticket.

    Compromise

    USA Today and Suffolk University released a poll on February 1, 2015, that showed that most Americans wanted to see more compromise between the White House and Congress. Of the adults polled, 76 percent stated that they wanted President Obama (D) to compromise more with Congress. To the same degree, 72 percent of polled adults stated they wanted Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R) to compromise more with President Obama. By party affiliation, 71 percent of Democrats and 82 percent of Republicans said they wanted President Obama to compromise. For Senator McConnell, 87 percent of Democrats and 57 percent of Republicans wanted him to compromise.[51]

    Affordable Care Act

    Obamacare was one of the dominant issues in the 2014 election, and it remained a prominent issue in 2016. The nonpartisan Kaiser Family Foundation conducted multiple polls on opinions regarding Obamacare. In January 2015, 40 percent of participants viewed Obamacare favorably, while 46 percent viewed it unfavorably. Another poll also showed that 50 percent of participants felt that it was important to continue the debate over Obamacare. Additionally, 45 percent of participants argued that the debated had gone far enough and the country should focus on other issues. Voters who wanted more debate over Obamacare were more likely to be opposed to the legislation. Those who wanted to focus more on other issues were evenly split in their support of Obamacare.[52]

    Supreme Court and judiciary

    The unexpected death of Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia on February 13, 2016, caused the Supreme Court appointment to fill the vacancy to become an election issue. Confirmation of a new Supreme Court justice requires 60 votes in the Senate, allowing the Republican-controlled Senate to deny any nominee chosen by President Barack Obama. Several Republican senators, including Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, declared that the next president should have the responsibility of appointing the new justice. McConnell said in a statement, "The American people‎ should have a voice in the selection of their next Supreme Court Justice. Therefore, this vacancy should not be filled until we have a new President."[3]

    This raised the issue of Republican obstructionism in battleground states. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) said of the issue, "I believe that many of the mainstream Republicans, when the president nominates a mainstream nominee, will not want to follow Mitch McConnell over the cliff. The American people don't like this obstruction. When you go right off the bat and say, 'I don't care who he nominates, I am going to oppose him,' that's not going to fly."[3][53]

    Immigration

    The Deferred Action for Childhood Arrivals (DACA) is a program established by executive action on June 15, 2012, that allows undocumented individuals who were brought to the United States as children to receive relief from being deported for a period of time if they meet certain criteria. That action was followed by the Deferred Action for Parents of U.S. Citizens and Lawful Permanent Residents (DAPA), which was announced on November 20, 2014, shielding the undocumented parents of U.S. citizens and lawful permanent residents from deportation.[54]

    Both programs came under fire in the presidential race, prompting the call for immigration reform. Securing the southern border with Mexico was also a major facet of the immigration issue.

    Iran nuclear deal

    See also: Iran nuclear agreement, 2015

    The P5+1 and the European Union, also known as the E3+3, reached an agreement with Iran regarding the development of its nuclear program on July 14, 2015.[55] The deal limits Iran's nuclear development in exchange for sanctions relief.[56]

    President Barack Obama and the majority of congressional Democrats lauded the deal, while Republicans largely opposed the deal.

    Filing deadlines by state

    The table below lists the 2016 congressional primary dates and filing deadlines for each state.[57]

    See also

    External links

    Footnotes

    1. ↑ Politico, "2016 elections," accessed December 19, 2013
    2. ↑ United States House of Representatives History, Art & Archives, "Election Statistics," accessed September 4, 2015
    3. ↑ 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 NPR, "Scalia's Death Will Cast A Long Shadow Across This Year's Senate Races," February 15, 2016
    4. ↑ Los Angeles Times, "In search for Scalia's successor, Obama may see GOP opposition as incentive to select a liberal," February 14, 2016
    5. ↑ United States House of Representatives, "Party Divisions of the House of Representatives," accessed September 8, 2015
    6. ↑ Roll Call, "Can Democrats Win the House in 2016?" January 13, 2015
    7. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "House 2016: Gridlock Ahead for a Possible Clinton Administration?" May 28, 2015
    8. ↑ United States House of Representatives History, Art & Archives, "Election Statistics," accessed September 4, 2015
    9. ↑ ABC News, "Tea Party Class of 2010: Where Are They Now?" May 30, 2013
    10. ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2016 Senate Race Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
    11. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 Senate," accessed November 6, 2016
    12. ↑ The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "Senate Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
    13. ↑ CNN, "Election Results," accessed November 9, 2016
    14. ↑ The Cook Political Report, "2016 House Race Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
    15. ↑ Sabato's Crystal Ball, "2016 House," accessed November 6, 2016
    16. ↑ The Rothenberg & Gonzales Political Report, "House Ratings," accessed November 6, 2016
    17. ↑ 17.0 17.1 17.2 Due to court-ordered redistricting, Florida's 2nd and 10th Congressional Districts and Virginia's 4th Congressional District are expected to flip partisan control. However, Ballotpedia predicts that these races will not be competitive.
    18. ↑ ABC 6, "Rep. Chaka Fattah indicted in racketeering case," July 29, 2015
    19. ↑ The Hill, "Rep. Chaka Fattah found guilty on corruption charges," June 21, 2016
    20. ↑ Politico, "Fattah submits resignation but wants to stay until October," June 22, 2016
    21. ↑ ABC 6, "Rep. Chaka Fattah resigns effective immediately," June 23, 2016
    22. ↑ Roll Call, "The Unprecedented Action of One Anti-Abortion Group," May 11, 2016
    23. ↑ 23.0 23.1 Politico, "Koch-backed group targets first GOP incumbent in primary," May 12, 2016
    24. ↑ The New York Times, "Donald Trump Makes His First Congressional Endorsement," June 6, 2016
    25. ↑ The New York Times, "North Carolina Primary Results," June 7, 2016
    26. ↑ The New York Times, "Virginia Primary Results," June 14, 2016
    27. ↑ Politico, "GOP Rep. Scott Rigell retiring," January 14, 2016
    28. ↑ National Review, "What’s Going On in Kansas’s Big First?" August 2, 2016
    29. ↑ Politico, "Kansas House Primaries Results," August 2, 2016
    30. ↑ ABC News, "US Rep. Corrine Brown Indicted After Fraud Investigation," accessed July 8, 2016
    31. ↑ 31.0 31.1 NRCC "About," accessed September 8, 2015 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "ab" defined multiple times with different content
    32. ↑ NRCC, "NRCC Announces 2016 Top Democrat Targets," February 18, 2015
    33. ↑ 33.0 33.1 33.2 33.3 33.4 An open seat refers to a race in which the incumbent is not seeking re-election.
    34. ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: NRCC Announces 12 Members in Patriot Program," February 13, 2015
    35. ↑ NRCC, "Patriot Program," accessed September 28, 2016
    36. ↑ 36.0 36.1 36.2 Note: This text is quoted verbatim from the original source. Any inconsistencies are attributable to the original source.
    37. ↑ NRCC, "32 Congressional Candidates Announced 'On the Radar' as Part of NRCC’s Young Guns Program," November 19, 2015
    38. ↑ NRCC, "Young Guns," accessed September 28, 2016
    39. ↑ NRCC, "On the Radar," accessed September 28, 2016
    40. ↑ DCCC, "Frontline Democrats 2015-2016," February 12, 2015
    41. ↑ Roll Call, "Exclusive: DCCC Announces 14 Incumbents in Frontline Program," February 12, 2015
    42. ↑ 42.0 42.1 DCCC, "Red to Blue," accessed September 28, 2016 Cite error: Invalid <ref> tag; name "red2blue" defined multiple times with different content
    43. ↑ United States Election Project, "Voter Turnout," accessed September 6, 2015
    44. ↑ United States Senate, "Party Division in the Senate, 1789-Present," accessed September 6, 2015
    45. ↑ Independents caucus with the Democratic Party.
    46. ↑ The Washington Post, "Will Donald Trump cost Republicans the House? It’s very unlikely," October 18, 2016
    47. ↑ RealClear Politics, "The House May Be in Play," October 8, 2016
    48. ↑ Vox, "A Trump collapse could give Democrats back the House. Here’s the math," October 8, 2016
    49. ↑ The New York Times, "What Are the Chances That Democrats Retake the House?" August 23, 2016
    50. ↑ Five Thirty Eight, "The GOP’s House Majority Is Safe … Right?" June 20, 2016
    51. ↑ USA Today, "Poll: Americans want compromise between Congress & Obama," February 1, 2015
    52. ↑ Kaiser Family Foundation, "Kaiser Health Tracking Poll: January 2015," January 28, 2015
    53. ↑ Los Angeles Times, "In search for Scalia's successor, Obama may see GOP opposition as incentive to select a liberal," February 14, 2016
    54. ↑ NPR, "As 2016 Elections Loom, So Does A Possible End To DACA," January 3, 2016
    55. ↑ The Guardian, "Iran nuclear deal reached in Vienna," July 14, 2015
    56. ↑ Wall Street Journal, "Iran, World Powers Reach Nuclear Deal," July 14, 2015
    57. ↑ Federal Election Commission, "2016 Preliminary Presidential and Congressional Primary Dates," accessed September 21, 2015
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