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Cola Wars Continue

Michelle Anderson, Stacey Blunt, Jennifer Brandeberry

Manufacturing Process
Concentrate Producers
Blend raw material
ingredients
Diet CSDs (carbonated soft
drinks), concentrate makers
add artificial sweeteners
Package mixture into plastic
canisters
Ship containers to bottlers

Manufacturing Process
Bottlers
Purchase concentrate
Add carbonated water and
high-fructose corn syrup
Bottle or can product
Deliver to customer accounts

Competitive Forces - Concentrate


Business
Threat of Substitutes
Health-conscious
consumers

Bargaining Power of
Suppliers
Concentrate required
few inputs

Rivalry
Among
Concentrate
Producers
Threat of New
Entrants
Coke & Pepsi claimed
72% of US CSD sales
volume in 2009

Bargaining Power of
Buyers
Bottlers had little
bargaining power

Competitive Forces - Bottling


Business
Bargaining Power of
Suppliers
Concentrate is the main
cost component to bottling
process

Threat of Substitutes
Bottlers frustrated by
growth of non-carb
popularity

Rivalry
Among
Bottlers
Threat of New Entrants
Bottler refranchising in
1980s diminished threat of
new entrants

Bargaining Power of
Buyers
Retail sector consolidation
allows companies like
Walmart to exert pricing
pressure

Profitability
Concentrate Industry

Bottling Industry

Little capital - large plants 50-100


million
Most significant costs:
advertising, promotion, market
research, bottling support
Coke and Pepsi hold 72% of
market
Brand recognition

A lot of capital - plants can cost


hundreds of millions
Main costs: concentrate and
syrup
Franchise contracts: concentrate
business can decide on price and
bottlers can not carry directly
competing brands

Profitability cont...
Concentrate industry more profitable due to supplier power
Cola wars weakened small, independent bottlers
More money spent on advertising, product and packaging
proliferation,and retail price discounting - higher capital
requirements and lower profit margins
Exhibit 5:
Retail price per case continuously decreasing
1988: $10.79 per case
2009: $7.98 per case
Concentrate price per case continuously increasing
1988: $0.79 per case
2009: $1.65 per case

Profitability cont...
Bottlers operating profits much less compared to concentrate producers
o Exhibit 3a-b
Coke and Pepsis acquisitions of smaller bottlers
o 2009: Pepsis bottlers decreased from over 400 to just 106

Supplier Power
Number of suppliers: few large concentrate producers
o Coke (41.9% 2009), Pepsi (29.9% 2009), Dr Pepper Snapple (16.4%
2009), Other (11.8% 2009)
Size of suppliers
o Coke and Pepsi claimed 72% of U.S. CSD market - have most control
o Pepsi: acquisition of PBG and PepsiAmericas (80% operations)
o Coke: acquisition of CCEs North American operations (90%
operations)
Ability to substitute
o No other companys have same amount of market share or brand
recognition as Coke and Pepsi
Cost of changing
o Lose a lot of market share
o Product uniqueness

Competitive Spirit
If the Coca-Cola Company didnt exist, wed pray for someone to invent them.
Roger Enrico, Former CEO of Pepsi

The War With No Blood


Competition
o Without Pepsi, Coke would have a tough time being an original and
lively competitor and innovator
o The true winner of this war is the consumer
Industry Growth
o 1970 Consumption of CSDs : average 23 gallons/year
o Average consumption grew 3% per year for the next three decades
o Coincidence or Byproduct of the Cola Wars?

Staggering Facts
Timeline
o Carefully Waged Competitive Struggle

Growth
o Annual Revenue Growth of around 10% per year
o Constant U.S. and Worldwide CSD consumption growth

Competition Ripple Effects


Causes of Increased Industry Profits
o
o
o
o

Increasing availability of CSDs


Introduction of diet & flavored varieties
Declining real (inflation-adjusted) prices
Affordability
Total consumption of CSDs grew from 12.4% of total beverage consumption in 1970 to a
high of 29% in 2000 (Exhibit 1)

Ripple Effects cont...


Growth of Coke and Pepsi put a squeeze on smaller concentrate
producers
o Shelf space declined - small brands continuously changing owners
Bottler consolidation made smaller concentrate producers increasingly
dependent on the Pepsi and Coke bottling networks
o DPS in response formed its own bottler
Health concerns about the effects of CSD consumption
Smaller brands have slowly been grabbing more market share
o Exhibit 2

Alternatives
Adapting To The Times
o

As with any company in a competitive industry, to survive you must adapt

o Coke and Pepsi Adapted by

Consolidating Bottlers
Providing Healthy Alternatives for Schools
Sponsorships (Sports Teams, Colleges, Concerts)
Breaking into International Markets
Buying out Competitors

o CSD consumption declines, Pepsi & Coke Profits Increase

Advertisement war
Pepsi vs Coca-Cola
o http://youtu.be/IVndvFoQt34?list=RDmuH-zcOYnFc
Coca-Cola Its Mine
o http://youtu.be/xiMf5cCDy1I?list=RDmuH-zcOYnFc

More recently...
Pepsis stock up 14% compared to just 7% for Coke - why?
o Pepsi owns the Frito-Lay snack business
Food business grew at a higher rate compared to beverage
business
o Strong results from Latin America and Asia
o Pepsi is cheaper
Trades at 19X 2015 earnings forecast compared to Coke at 20X
BUT Pepsis expecting earnings to grow 7% annually while Coke
only expects to grow 4.6% annually (according to analysts)
Best performing beverage stock - Dr Pepper Snapple
o Shares up nearly 35%
o Cheaper shares and earnings growth expected to outpace Coke and
Pepsi
Numbers from October 9, 2014

New Cola Wars?

Coca-Cola Life: 35% less calories, sweetened with cane sugar and stevia
Pepsi True: 30% fewer calories, sweetened with sugar and stevia
In response to consumers looking for reduced-calorie soft drinks
Industry wide effort to reduce beverage calories by 20% by 2025

Questions?

Works Cited
http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/02/news/companies/coke-pepsi-stevia/
http://money.cnn.com/2014/10/09/investing/pepsi-earnings-stock-coke/
Rothaermel, Frank T. Strategic Management. 2nd ed. New York: McGrawHill Irwin, 2013. Print.
Yoffie, David B., and Renee Kim. "Cola Wars Continue: Coke and Pepsi in
2010." (2011): n. pag. Web.

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