DS 605 Group Final
DS 605 Group Final
DS 605 Group Final
Jingyuan Cao
Sheila Lee
Peter Loveland
Kevin Watkins
Team Project
DS 605
Dr. Linda Woodland
December 2, 2010
Index
Introduction…………………………………………….……………..……………………………………3
Industry Analysis……………………………………….…………….……………………………………3
SWOT Analysis…………………………………………………………………………………………….4
Differentiation………………………………………………………………………………...……………7
Pricing Rivalry……………………………………………………………………………………………..8
Switching Costs………………………………………………………………………………………….....9
Vertical Boundaries……...………………………………………………………………………………9
References………………………………………………………………………………………………...11
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Introduction:
With stagnated sales and limited growth opportunities, many ideas have been offered for Coke to
maintain its dominance. A current global wellness initiative aimed at individuals and businesses is to live
a healthier lifestyle. Global expansion is another concept that may buoy Coke’s financial performance.
Bottled waters and energy drinks, as well as eliminating the use of high fructose corn syrup
(HFCS) as a main ingredient in its soft drinks are two health-related options for Coke. Bocarsly et. al.
found that HFCS can lead to significant weight gain, abnormal increases in body fat, and a rise in
circulating blood fats (triglycerides), Bocarsly et. al. (2010). We plan to focus on whether Coke should
invest more resources in the energy drink/bottled water segment help to grow market share and whether
using natural sugar as opposed to HFCS would provide enough goodwill among soft drink consumers to
enhance Coke brand loyalty as well as make sound economic sense.
Global expansion may also benefit Coke. Currently, 74% of their total sales come abroad. Global
markets may provide the best opportunities for growth, especially in Africa. Currently Coke and Pepsi are
the only major carbonated soft drink companies to offer their products in all 7 major market segments,
including North America, Central America, South America, Europe, Asia, the Pacific, and Africa.
However both companies’ presence in Africa is limited.
This analysis will consider the carbonated soft drink industry, Coca-Cola as a firm, and explore
whether or not Coke should abandon HFCS, focus resources to expand their energy drink/bottled water
segment, as well as expansion throughout Africa.
Industry Analysis
The soft drink industry, (SIC CODE 2086 Bottled & Canned Soft Drinks: NAICS Code 312111
Soft Drink Manufacturing), accounted for $38 billion in sales, 9.4 billion cases sold, and represented over
half of all beverages consumed in 2009. The industry is in maturity, with sales declining 2.23% from
2008, and cases sold declining 2.22%. Overall, the industry has seen an increase in sales of 8.7% from
2003-2009. However cases sold has decreased an average of 8% over the last 7 years. Coca-Cola has
remained dominant, currently at $16.4 billion in sales, 43% market share, and 3.9 billion cases sold
(Appendix 1-3).
Market structure defines the amount and distribution of firms within the industry. Our analysis
includes 11 firms: Coca-Cola(KO), Pepsi(PEP), Dr. Pepper Snapple Group(DPS), Cott Corp.(COT),
Hansen Natural Corp.(HANS), National Beverage Corp.(FIZZ), Jones Soda Co.(JSDA), Reeds Inc.
(REED), Clearly Canadian Beverage(CCBEF), Celsius Holdings Inc.(CELH), and China Fruits Corp.
(3CHFR). These companies manufacture, market and sell carbonated soft drink beverages. While some
of these firms maintain business divisions, such as bottling, food, and bottled water, which are major
assets, this data will not be included in market structure analysis.
The top three companies, KO, PEP, and DPS accounted for 91% of total carbonated soft drink
sales in both 2009, and throughout the time period 2003-2009. Therefore our 3 firm concentration ratio is .
91 (Appendix 4). The HHI for the CSD industry is .32 for 2009 and remains stable ranging between .30
and .34 from 2003-2009 (Appendix 4). These HHI ranges fall under the category of oligopoly. Price
elasticity is high because as prices increase for Coke, quantity demanded for Pepsi increases. That is why
one firm will be on sale at grocery or convenience stores for a time period and the other will follow
afterward. On the same token as Coke lowers prices their quantity demanded increases. This is because
their loyal customers will look to purchase more of their product since it’s on sale. As both firms are
looking to cannibalize sales from their competitors, it is in each firm’s best interest to operate at the
minimum efficient scale, then to lower prices to attract new customers and gain market share.
Five Forces Analysis:
Internal Rivalry
Internal rivalry remains high within the CSD industry. There is a lot of price and non-price
competition between competitors, especially Coke and Pepsi.
Coke has done an excellent job of keeping costs low when compared to the industry. Average cost
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of goods sold as a percentage of sales for the industry in 2009 was 56%. Coke has kept their figure better
than average at 32%, while Dr. Pepper/Snapple has maintained a 39% ratio, and Pepsi a 43% ratio of cost
of goods sold as a percentage of sales. Coke’s dominance in cost containment can be attributed to their
focus on streamlining operations (layoffs and efficient distribution) and operating near the minimum
efficient scale.
Entry
Barriers to entry in the CSD industry remain high. The two largest CSD companies, Coke and
Pepsi have several sources of market power over newcomers including bottling and distribution
networks/contracts, and exclusive restaurant contracts. Restaurant contracts are a major source of revenue
for the largest soft drinks companies. Coke and McDonald’s have a 54-year partnership, and Coke is sold
in all of McDonald’s 14,000 U.S. restaurants. Pepsi beverages are sold exclusively in KFC, Taco Bell,
and Pizza Hut restaurants. It would be difficult for a fledgling company to attempt to grow market share
by operating at an efficient production level and selling fountain drinks at major restaurants.
Substitutes and Complements
There are many substitutes and complements in the industry. Most companies have some form of
cola soft drink, lemon lime soft drink, bottled water, and energy drink. Each company’s prospective
product is a substitute for the other company’s offering of the same kind. Jones Soda and several other
smaller firms offer pure cane soda drink options in flavors that are considered complements to the
traditional cola, or bottled water segments. Jones Soda and other smaller beverage companies must
differentiate their products to appeal to the masses. Doing so helps them to grow brand recognition and
loyalty.
Supplier Power
Suppliers have limited power because of governmental regulations, and alternatives. Foreign
sugar producers have limited power due to tariffs and the U.S. government’s production quotas of
domestic sugar. Also since the mid 1990’s the U.S. government has subsidized corn growers by $40
billion, which is another deterrent to sugar producers. There are also various substitutes for a sweetener,
including HFCS, cane sugar, or beet sugar. These are all similar tasting and most beverage companies
will utilize the most cost effective commodity.
Buyer Power
Buyers have tremendous power in this industry. When there is a specific movement of preferred
tastes, beverage companies must adhere to it. This is definitely the case regarding the popularity of
bottled water and energy drinks. As stated earlier, these product lines have become mainstays for most
companies.
SWOT Analysis
Internal Factors:
Strengths - World’s leading brand
Coke has strong brand recognition across the globe. According to BusinessWeek, Coke has the
highest brand value of all global brands. Business Week-Interbrand valued Coke at $70.4 billion in 2010.
Coke ranks ahead of its closest competitor Pepsi, which has a ranking of 23 and a brand value of $14
billion, Interbrand (2010). Furthermore, Coke owns a large portfolio of product brands. The company
owns four of the top five soft drink brands in the world: Coke, Diet Coke, Sprite and Fanta. Strong brands
allow the company to introduce brand extensions such as Vanilla Coke, Cherry Coke and Coke with
Lemon, Coca-Cola Wiki (2010). Over the years, the company has made large investments in brand
promotions. The company’s strong brand value facilitates customer recall and allows Coke to penetrate
new markets and consolidate existing ones.
Large scale of operations
With revenues in excess of $24 billion Coke has a large scale of operation. Coke is the largest
manufacturer, distributor and marketer of nonalcoholic beverage concentrates and syrups in the world.
The company currently sells its products in more than 200 countries. Of the approximately 52 billion
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beverage servings of all types consumed worldwide every day, beverages bearing trademarks owned by or
licensed to Coke account for more than 1.4 billion. The company’s operations are supported by a strong
infrastructure across the world. Coke owns and operates 32 principal beverage concentrates and/or syrup
manufacturing plants, worldwide. In addition, it owns or has interest in 37 operations with 95 principal
beverage bottling and canning plants located outside the U.S., Stanford (2010). The company also owns
bottled water production and still beverage facilities as well as a facility that manufactures juice
concentrates. The company’s large scale of operation allows it to feed upcoming markets with relative
ease and enhances its revenue generation capacity.
Robust revenue growth in three segments
Coke’s revenues recorded a double-digit growth, in the three operating segments Latin America,
‘East, South Asia, and Pacific Rim’ and Bottling investments. Revenues from Latin America grew by
20.4% during fiscal 2006, over 2005. During the same period, revenues from ‘East, South Asia, and
Pacific Rim’ grew by 10.6% while revenues from the bottling investments segment by 19.9%. Together,
the three segments of Latin America, ‘East, South Asia, and Pacific Rim’ and bottling investments,
accounted for 34.8% of total revenues during fiscal 2006. Robust revenues and growth rates in these
segments contributed to top-line growth for Coke during 2006, Coca-Cola Strategy (2009).
Weaknesses - Negative publicity
The company received negative publicity in India during September of 2006. The company was
accused by the Center for Science and Environment (CSE) of selling products containing pesticide
residues in and around the Indian national capital region. These pesticides included chemicals, which
could cause cancers, damage the nervous and reproductive systems and reduce bone mineral density.
Such negative publicity could adversely impact the company’s brand image and the demand for Coke
products. Additionally, this could have an adverse impact on the company’s growth prospects in the
international markets, Grobel (2006).
Sluggish performance in North America
Coke’s performance in North America has been far from robust. North America is Coke’s core
market generating about 30% of total revenues during fiscal 2006. Therefore, a strong performance in
North America is important for the company.
Unit case retail volume in North America decreased 1% in 2006, primarily due to weak sparkling
beverage trends in the second half of the year and declined in the warehouse-delivered water and juice
businesses. Moreover, the company also expected performance in North America to be weak during
2007, SWOT Analysis (2006).
Sluggish performance in North America could impact the company’s future growth prospects and
prevent Coke from recording robust top-line growth.
Decline in cash from operating activities
The company’s cash flow from operating activities declined during fiscal 2006. Cash flows from
operating activities decreased 7% in 2006 compared to 2005. Net cash provided by operating activities
reached $5.95 billion in 2006, from $6.42 billion in 2005. Coke’s cash flows from operating activities in
2006 also decreased compared with 2005 as a result of a contribution of approximately $216 million to a
tax-qualified trust to fund retiree medical benefits. The decrease was also the result of certain marketing
accruals recorded in 2005, Coca-Cola Cash Flow (2007).
Decline in cash from operating activities reduces availability of funds for the company’s investing
and financing activities, which, in turn, increases the company’s exposure to debt markets and fluctuating
interest rates.
External Factors:
Opportunities - Acquisitions
Coke has aggressively adopted the inorganic growth path. During 2006, its acquisitions included
Kerry Beverages, (KBL), which was subsequently, reappointed Coca-Cola China Industries (CCCIL).
Coke acquired a controlling shareholding in KBL, its bottling joint venture with the Kerry Group, in Hong
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Kong. The acquisition extended Coke’s control over manufacturing and distribution joint ventures in nine
Chinese provinces. In Germany, the company acquired Apollinaris, which sells sparkling and still mineral
water in Germany. Coke also acquired a 100% interest in TJC Holdings, a bottling company in South
Africa. Coke also made acquisitions in Australia and New Zealand during 2006. These acquisitions
strengthened Coke’s international operations. Furthermore, the acquisitions gave Coke opportunity for
growth, through new product launch and greater penetration of existing markets. Stronger international
operations increase the company’s capacity to penetrate international markets and also gives it an
opportunity to diversity its revenue stream, Gaudet (2009).
Growing bottled water market
Bottled water is one of the fastest-growing segments in the world’s food and beverage market
owing to increasing health concerns. The market for bottled water in the US generated revenues of about
$15.6 billion in 2006. Market consumption volumes were estimated to be 30 billion liters in 2006. The
market's consumption volume is expected to rise to 38.6 billion units by the end of 2010. This represents
a CAGR of 6.9% during 2005-2010. In terms of value, the bottled water market is forecast to reach $19.3
billion by the end of 2010. In the bottled water market, the revenue of flavored water segment is growing
by about $10 billion annually. The company’s Dasani brand water is the third best-selling bottled water in
the U.S. Coke could leverage its strong position in the bottled water segment to take advantage of
growing demand for flavored water, Douaud (2007).
Threats:
Intense competition
Coke competes in the nonalcoholic beverages segment of the commercial beverages industry. The
company faces intense competition in various markets from regional as well as global players. Also, the
company faces competition from various nonalcoholic sparkling beverages including juices and nectars
and fruit drinks. In many of the countries in which Coke operates, including the U.S., PepsiCo is one of
the company’s primary competitors. Competitive factors impacting the company’s business include
pricing, advertising, sales promotion programs, product innovation, and brand and trademark development
and protection. Intense competition could impact Coke’s market share and revenue growth rates.
Dependence on bottling partners
Coke generates most of its revenue by selling concentrates and syrups to bottlers in whom it
doesn’t have any ownership interest or in which it has no controlling ownership interest. As independent
companies, its bottling partners, some of whom are publicly traded companies; make their own business
decisions that may not always be in line with the company’s interests. In addition, many of its bottling
partners have the right to manufacture or distribute their own products or certain products of other
beverage companies.
If Coke is unable to provide an appropriate mix of incentives to its bottling partners, then the
partners may take actions that, while maximizing their own short-term profits, may be detrimental to
Coke. These bottlers may devote more resources to business opportunities or products other than those
beneficial for Coke. Such actions could, in the long run, have an adverse effect on Coke’s profitability. In
addition, loss of one or more of its major customers by any one of its major bottling partners could
indirectly affect Coke’s business results. Such dependence on third parties is a weak link in Coke’s
operations and increases the company’s business risks, Cokecce (2006).
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