2007 03 08 EUCI - Nuclear Renaissance
2007 03 08 EUCI - Nuclear Renaissance
2007 03 08 EUCI - Nuclear Renaissance
Edward Kee
Washington DC
These slides do not provide a complete record of the
accompanying oral presentation and discussion.
This presentation represents the views of the speaker
only and does not necessarily represent the views of
others at CRA International or the views of our clients.
• Why nuclear?
• Who?
• At what cost?
• How many MW?
• When?
• Where?
• What next?
• Asia
– Japan – 16 plants on line since 1990; 3 units under construction
– Korea – 10 units on line since 1990; 8 units under construction
– Big plans for nuclear power in China and India
– Interest elsewhere (e.g., Thailand, Indonesia, Vietnam)
• Russia
– By 2030, plans for 42 new units inside Russia and 40-50 units abroad
• Europe
– New plants in Finland and France
– Re-think of nuclear phase-out in several countries
– EU report on nuclear power in January 2007
– UK moving toward nuclear power option
• Other countries interested
– Includes Canada, Argentina, Australia, Egypt, Persian Gulf states
Solar PV 125
Wind 69
Gas CC ($6/mmBTU) 57
Gas CC ($5/mmBTU) 50
Nuclear ($1,400/kW) 46
Coal IGCC 43
Coal PC 42
Nuclear ($1,200/kW) 42
0 50 100 150
$/MWh
Source: NEI; “Investment Stimulus for new nuclear plant construction – frequently asked questions” September, 2006
• Regulatory/licensing risk
– DC, ESP processes; minimize issues in COL and NRC final hearing
• Construction risk – risk-sharing with vendors, contracts
– Delays
– Cost overruns
• Market risk – during financing & after completion
– Market prices, offtake agreements (merchant plants)
– Regulatory treatments, prudence reviews (regulated plants)
– Upside from global warming actions
• Infrastructure constraints
– Early procurement of critical components
– Invest in critical suppliers
– Establish cross-border partnerships
100
80
GW
60
40
20
19 99
20 01
20 03
20 05
19 93
19 95
19 97
19 81
19 83
19 85
19 87
19 89
19 91
19 71
19 73
19 75
19 77
19 79
19 65
19 67
19 69
19 57
19 59
19 61
19 63
Source: DOE/EIA
20%
15%
10%
5%
0%
20 05
19 97
19 99
20 01
20 03
19 87
19 91
19 93
19 95
19 83
19 85
19 89
19 73
19 79
19 81
19 75
19 77
19 61
19 63
19 65
19 67
19 69
19 71
19 57
19 59
Source: DOE/EIA
14
12
10
8
GW
6
4
2
0
25
27
29
17
19
23
21
07
09
11
13
15
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
50
45
40
35
30
GW
25
20
15
10
5
0
23
25
27
29
15
17
19
21
07
09
11
13
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
160
140
120
100
GW
80
60
40
20
0
25
27
29
15
17
19
21
23
07
09
11
13
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
20
Construction and
procurement
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Source: FERC