60 Year Intervals and October Panics
60 Year Intervals and October Panics
60 Year Intervals and October Panics
1929
Oct 08
-3.65%
1937
Oct 29 (a)
+ 2 yrs
-11.73%
Oct 18
+ 8 yrs
-7.75%
150 A
326 A
164 Ao
+ 60 yrs
+ 60 yrs
+ 60 yrs
1987
1989
1997
Oct 19
-22.61%
324 Ao
Oct 13
+ 2 yrs
-6.91%
164 Ao
Oct 27
+ 8 yrs
-7.18%
320 Ao
(a) The 1929 AOD fall happened on Monday Oct 28, although the
following day, Black Tuesday, has been used in the table.
October AOD Rises and Falls 1885 - 2009
Since 1885, some 10 major DJIA AOD falls (=> -3.60%) occurred
between September 10 and October 31. Adding or subtracting 60
years to each of these dates gave a corresponding AOD fall (=> 2.45%) between August 19 and December 20, with NO
EXCEPTIONS (see Appendix 1). Major autumn AOD falls could be
expected in 2015 and 2046 by extrapolating from this trend.
Sixty year intervals were also evident for the 11 major DJIA AOD
rises (=> +4.00%) happening between September 24 and
November 5 since 1885 (see Appendix 2). By adding or subtracting
60 years, most of these rises had a corresponding DJIA AOD rise (=>
+2.50%) between August 20 and December 30. The anomalies took
place in 1914 when there was no DJIA data between July 30 and
December 12, as well as in 1948 when no AOD rise over +2.10%
was recorded. In 1914, the US stock market was closed for about 4.5
months following the outbreak of WW I. Presumably, a security rally
would have taken place, once the US Government confirmed that
it would remain neutral in the conflict. The stock market rose
+7.65% on September 5, 1939, when President Roosevelt
announced that the USA would not enter into WW II.
A summary can be given as follows:
AOD Falls (=> -3.60%) between Sep 10 and Oct 31.
All AOD Falls in Appendix 1 occurred between Aug 19 and
Dec 20
AOD Rises (=> +4.00%) between Sep 24 and Nov 05.
All AOD Rises in Appendix 2 occurred between Aug 20 - Dec 30
Good correlates with the 60 year intervals could only be
established for major DJIA AOD rises and falls greater than
+4.00% and 3.60% respectively. Anomalies arise using AOD rises
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MARKET TECHNICIAN
or falls less than these values. For example, the October 25, 1982
AOD fall (-3.52%) minus 60 years gave 1922, which experienced
an AOD fall on June 12 (-2.65%). The latter did not occur within
the time frame established for all examples in Appendix 1. The
1982 AOD fall also occurred after the 1st quarter Moon, whereas
all other October panics happened around a full Moon and a few
days prior to a new Moon. Additionally, DJIA AOD falls over 4.50% from 1910 to 2008 nearly always occurred between the 1st
quarter Moon and a full Moon, as well as between the 3rd quarter
Moon and a new Moon (ie: two quarter segments diagonally
opposite in the angular circle). For AOD falls less than 4.50%, this
lunar phase effect did not hold (McMinn, 2006). Extreme AOD
events produced the greatest significance in relation to Moon
Sun cycles.
Historical October Panics
60 year intervals were also important in the timing of 19th century
panics taking place between September 20 and October 31.
1839 US panic (Oct) +60 1899 DJIA AOD fall (Dec 18).
1847 British panic (Oct 23) +60 1907 US panic (Oct 22).
1857 US banking panic (Oct 14) +60 1917 DJIA AOD falls
(Nov 1 & 8).
1869 US Black Friday (Sep 24) +60 1929 US Black Tuesday (Oct 29).
1871 US Chicago fire panic (Oct 09) +60 1931 DJIA AOD fall
(Sep 24).
The 1907 US banking panic (Oct 22) was anomalous, as 1967 had
no DJIA AOD fall over -2.00%.
1873 US Black Friday (Sep 19) plus 60 years gave the July 21, 1933
AOD fall. This was about a month out compared with AOD falls in
Appendix 1, all of which timed from August 19 to December 20.
Moon Sun Cycles
Major October DJIA AOD falls (=> -3.60%) in Appendix 1 happened
consistently with lunar phase around the full Moon (150 205 Ao)
and before the new Moon (300 350 Ao). This also applied to the
early historical US October panics in 1857, 1871 and 1907. The only
date available for the 1839 panic was October 9 banking panic in
Philadelphia, with lunar phase at 023 Ao which was anomalous.
Interestingly, the non-October events in Appendix 1 showed no
similar restricted distributions for lunar phase.
For all 12 October DJIA rises in Appendix 2, lunar phase always
occurred around the full Moon (160 200 Ao) and after the 3rd
quarter Moon to after the new Moon (280 - 015 Ao). This gave a
similar distribution for the major October AOD falls in Appendix 1.
DJIA October Events
150 205 Ao
300 350 Ao
160 200 Ao
280 - 015 Ao
MARKET TECHNICIAN
Appendix 1
Appendix 2
1895
1897
1903
1926
1897
Dec 20
Sep 21
Aug 19
Oct 15
Aug 31
6.61%
3.95%
4.07%
2.73%
+2.97%
051 Ao
+2
+ 60
299 Ao
+6
336 Ao
+ 23
104 Ao
+1
Oct 16
+6
+ 60
1963
1974
1978
202 Ao
348 Ao
Oct 23
+ 60
+ 60
+4.12%
Oct 21
Nov 22
Sep 11
6.54%
+2
2.48%
+6
+ 23
339 A
118 A
2.89%
120 Ao
1927
+2.95%
Oct 08
3.65%
1931
Oct 29
+2
11.73%
1937
Sep 24
+2
Oct 18
+6
7.07
7.75%
150 A
326 A
157 A
164 Ao
+ 60
+ 60
+ 60
+ 60
1987
1989
Oct 19
22.61%
1991
Oct 13
+2
324 Ao
6.91%
164 Ao
1929
3.93%
102 Ao
7.18%
+ 60
+ 60
+ 60
1987
1989
1991
1997
Oct 21
Oct 16
Aug 21
Oct 28
347 A
Dec 30
4.61%
+3.50%
234 Ao
032 Ao
118 Ao
095 Ao
167 A
+ 60
+ 60
+ 60
+ 60
+ 60
2001
2008
????
????
2001
281 A
139 A
330 Ao
+4
+4.71%
+6
204Ao
Sep 11
na
197 Ao
+3.02%
+2
+3.00%
Sep 26
Oct 15
+7
7.75%
+4
Nov 23
Nov 03
+7
+3.43%
+2
+4
Dec 8
Sep 11
+6.07%
+ 60
320 Ao
+ 31
+14.87%
191 Ao
1986
6.54%
Oct 20
+6
294 Ao
1955
+7
+12.34%
Oct 06
+2
338 Ao
1948
3.85%
+9
1937
116 Ao
1941
+7
+4.46%
011 Ao
1931
Oct 30
+2
+10.17%
3.50%
282 Ao
Oct 27
+6
+4.71%
+4
1997
Nov 15
+2
Nov 01
+4
Sep 06
1927
Oct 09
+ 11
+9
4.61%
095 Ao
070 A
+4.50%
+9
315 Ao
Nov 26
+6
007 Ao
Sep 26
+2.67%
+ 60
1957
1986
Oct 30
+4
+ 60
4.17%
1963
(a)
+ 11
+ 60
3.90%
1957
+5.11%
1918
308 Ao
Oct 19
1955
1914
314 Ao
Oct 12
+ 60
1903
1948
(b)
+7
192 A
This table gives all DJIA AOD falls over -3.60% happening between
Sep 10 and Oct 31 for the period 1885 to 2008.
+4.47%
o
093 A
1974
Oct 23
+9
+4.12%
Oct 09
+ 17
Sep 24
+ 31
1957
007 A
282 Ao
+ 60
+ 60
+ 60
2008
2017
2034
Oct 13
+7
+4.71%
+11.08%
????
+9
????
+ 17
165 Ao
This table gives all DJIA AOD rises over +4.00% between Sep 24
and Nov 05 for the period 1885 to 2008.
(a) Due to the outbreak of WW I, the New York stock market was
closed on July 30 and not reopened until December 12.
(b) No DJIA AOD rise over +2.10% was recorded during the year.
Copyright. David McMinn. All rights reserved. 2009.
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