NMDC
NMDC
NMDC
IN
Narration Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Trailing Best Case Worst Case
Sales 12,356.41 6,455.80 8,828.14 11,614.90 12,152.67 11,699.22 15,370.06 25,964.79 17,666.88 21,307.85 22,232.31 25,699.19 22,695.48
Expenses 4,591.45 3,770.64 5,233.44 5,812.20 5,228.16 5,697.34 6,579.79 13,338.33 11,613.14 14,014.23 14,397.88 15,420.30 14,697.83
Operating Profit 7,764.96 2,685.16 3,594.70 5,802.70 6,924.51 6,001.88 8,790.27 12,626.46 6,053.74 7,293.62 7,834.43 10,278.89 7,997.65
Other Income 2,155.17 1,682.21 909.80 667.16 588.45 417.17 351.00 715.85 2,003.60 1,086.95 1,198.10 - -
Depreciation 172.56 218.02 196.65 256.63 279.04 294.93 228.54 287.74 336.18 350.66 369.50 369.50 369.50
Interest 0.14 65.65 20.78 37.10 40.32 9.88 16.81 39.06 75.23 78.24 105.63 105.63 105.63
Profit before tax 9,747.43 4,083.70 4,287.07 6,176.13 7,193.60 6,114.24 8,895.92 13,015.51 7,645.93 7,951.67 8,557.40 9,803.76 7,522.52
Tax 3,346.26 1,380.05 1,704.04 2,373.34 2,556.53 2,512.72 2,648.45 3,575.09 2,108.21 2,380.42 2,513.07 29% 29%
Net profit 6,346.74 2,546.10 2,543.86 3,808.46 4,617.95 3,572.96 6,276.64 9,428.16 5,602.56 5,570.87 6,078.94 6,924.67 5,313.36
EPS 5.34 2.14 2.68 4.01 5.03 3.89 7.14 10.72 6.37 6.34 6.91 7.88 6.04
Price to earning 6.23 11.81 12.82 7.63 5.36 5.31 4.89 3.91 5.83 10.61 10.03 10.03 6.70
Price 33.23 25.29 34.35 30.60 26.96 20.65 34.93 41.95 37.18 67.25 69.32 78.96 40.47
EBIT 9,747.57 4,149.35 4,307.85 6,213.23 7,233.92 6,124.12 8,912.73 13,054.57 7,721.16 8,029.91 8,663.03
EBITDA 9,920.13 4,367.37 4,504.50 6,469.86 7,512.96 6,419.05 9,141.27 13,342.31 8,057.34 8,380.57 9,032.53
Operating Profit (excl Other Income 7,764.96 2,685.16 3,594.70 5,802.70 6,924.51 6,001.88 8,790.27 12,626.46 6,053.74 7,293.62 7,834.43
RATIOS:
DPS 2.85 3.67 1.72 1.43 1.84 1.76 2.59 4.91 2.20 2.42
Dividend Payout 53.41% 171.29% 64.05% 35.72% 36.60% 45.33% 36.23% 45.82% 34.52% 38.14%
OPM 62.84% 41.59% 40.72% 49.96% 56.98% 51.30% 57.19% 48.63% 34.27% 34.23% 35.24%
Narration Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Dec-23 Mar-24 Jun-24 Sep-24
Sales 4,767.07 3,328.45 3,719.99 5,851.37 5,394.66 4,013.98 5,409.90 6,489.31 5,414.19 4,918.91
Expenses 2,868.67 2,477.29 2,579.37 3,689.02 3,401.14 2,823.55 3,402.73 4,387.60 3,074.29 3,533.26
Operating Profit 1,898.40 851.16 1,140.62 2,162.35 1,993.52 1,190.43 2,007.17 2,101.71 2,339.90 1,385.65
Other Income 145.86 426.19 204.63 1,228.23 294.05 320.83 83.91 388.95 364.66 360.58
Depreciation 84.93 74.15 83.71 93.39 69.22 88.80 82.00 110.64 73.74 103.12
Interest 15.34 18.19 29.93 11.77 6.19 18.60 32.05 21.40 23.09 29.09
Profit before tax 1,943.99 1,185.01 1,231.61 3,285.42 2,212.16 1,403.86 1,977.03 2,358.62 2,607.73 1,614.02
Tax 472.75 299.36 327.62 1,008.48 551.12 379.00 507.30 943.00 644.38 418.39
Net profit 1,445.48 972.22 912.33 2,271.53 1,652.22 1,026.24 1,483.93 1,412.67 1,970.77 1,211.57
OPM 40% 26% 31% 37% 37% 30% 37% 32% 43% 28%
EBIT 1,959.33 1,203.20 1,261.54 3,297.19 2,218.35 1,422.46 2,009.08 2,380.02 2,630.82 1,643.11
EBITDA 2,044.26 1,277.35 1,345.25 3,390.58 2,287.57 1,511.26 2,091.08 2,490.66 2,704.56 1,746.23
NMDC LTD SCREENER.IN
Narration Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 2HFY20 Input data from 2QFY BS
Equity Share Capital 396.47 396.47 316.39 316.39 306.19 306.19 293.07 293.07 293.07 293.07
Reserves 31,870.17 28,783.62 22,265.82 24,101.02 25,737.81 27,366.88 29,590.98 17,725.18 22,327.76 25,362.83
Borrowings - 1,496.95 - 500.09 364.15 565.57 2,000.28 1,799.94 2,127.87 3,358.78 0.00
Other Liabilities 2,197.20 2,078.74 3,201.45 3,773.82 3,483.08 3,055.79 5,045.46 5,094.15 5,204.22 6,646.35 def tax liab+oth long term liab+other current liab
Total 34,463.84 32,755.78 25,783.66 28,691.32 29,891.23 31,294.43 36,929.79 24,912.34 29,952.92 35,661.03
Net Block / PPE 1,468.17 2,058.46 2,095.13 3,457.21 3,512.41 3,809.50 3,933.40 3,662.49 3,198.57 3,376.62
Capital Work in Progress 7,800.58 9,747.08 11,855.45 12,545.06 13,818.90 15,529.86 17,157.93 1,333.31 1,998.04 3,234.65
Investments 319.11 591.64 612.30 672.73 858.87 910.10 874.90 894.95 940.43 956.06
Other Assets 24,875.98 20,358.60 11,220.78 12,016.32 11,701.05 11,044.97 14,963.56 19,021.59 23,815.88 28,093.70 total current assets+long term loans and advances+other non current assets
Total 34,463.84 32,755.78 25,783.66 28,691.32 29,891.23 31,294.43 36,929.79 24,912.34 29,952.92 35,661.03 0.00 0.00 check TA matching
Working Capital 22,678.78 18,279.86 8,019.33 8,242.50 8,217.97 7,989.18 9,918.10 13,927.44 18,611.66 21,447.35 0.00
Debtors (Trade receivables) 1,752.33 796.07 1,043.52 1,472.74 1,424.51 2,223.71 2,139.89 2,954.30 4,361.23 3,508.93
Inventory 691.88 622.05 540.04 571.69 666.17 723.51 921.72 2,125.21 2,660.58 2,766.95
Trade Payables (Creditors) 9.74 7.17 7.96 19.21 37.43 37.86 25.62 18.77 35.37 44.57 input Creditors (Payables) data from Screener/Annual Reports
Inventory Turnover 17.86 10.38 16.35 20.32 18.24 16.17 16.68 12.22 6.64 7.70 -
Inventory Days 20.44 35.17 22.33 17.97 20.01 22.57 21.89 29.88 54.97 47.40 0.00
Debtor Days 52 45 43 46 43 69 51 42 90 60 0.00
Creditor Days 0 0 0 1 1 1 1 0 1 1 -
Cash Conversion Cycle 72 80 65 64 62 91 72 71 144 107 -
Working Capital/Sales 183.54% 283.15% 90.84% 70.96% 67.62% 68.29% 64.53% 53.64% 105.35% 100.65%
Return on Equity 20% 9% 11% 16% 18% 13% 21% 52% 25% 22%
Return on Capital Emp 18% 5% 17% 27% 35% 27% 43% 50% 17% 18%
Book Value 32,266.64 29,180.09 22,582.21 24,417.41 26,044.00 27,673.07 29,884.05 18,018.25 22,620.83 25,655.90 -
BVPS 27.13 24.53 23.79 25.73 28.35 30.13 33.99 20.49 25.73 29.18 -
Cash & Bank Balances 18,486.06 14,806.14 5,320.51 5,460.98 4,619.39 2,437.46 5,861.82 7,977.47 7,097.75 12,363.65
Cash/Sales 149.61% 229.35% 60.27% 47.02% 38.01% 20.83% 38.14% 30.72% 40.18% 58.02%
Common Size Balance Shee Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Check back how Assets are being put to use
Net Block/Total Assets 4.26% 6.28% 8.13% 12.05% 11.75% 12.17% 10.65% 14.70% 10.68% 9.47% high historical Fixed Assets/Total Assets - strong correlation high Op Leverage
Working Capital/Total Asset 65.80% 55.81% 31.10% 28.73% 27.49% 25.53% 26.86% 55.91% 62.14% 60.14%
Debtors/Total Assets 5.08% 2.43% 4.05% 5.13% 4.77% 7.11% 5.79% 11.86% 14.56% 9.84%
Inventory/Total Assets 2.01% 1.90% 2.09% 1.99% 2.23% 2.31% 2.50% 8.53% 8.88% 7.76%
Cash/Total Assets 53.64% 45.20% 20.64% 19.03% 15.45% 7.79% 15.87% 32.02% 23.70% 34.67% check for excluding excess cash (over and above historical normalised levels)
Borrowings/Total Assets 0.00% 4.57% 0.00% 1.74% 1.22% 1.81% 5.42% 7.23% 7.10% 9.42%
NMDC LTD SCREENER.IN
Narration Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
Cash from Operating Activity 3,999.14 2,501.96 2,108.52 3,376.28 4,001.54 2,125.97 7,266.13 6,941.80 1,837.59 7,394.80
Cash from Investing Activity -517.16 3,644.64 5,171.34 -1,864.88 -789.23 -312.76 -4,316.28 -3,213.89 202.25 -6,076.43
Cash from Financing Activity -3,449.44 -6,290.35 -7,249.32 -1,557.17 -3,201.03 -1,753.31 -2,591.32 -4,066.85 -2,067.44 -1,301.98
Net Cash Flow 32.54 -143.75 30.54 -45.77 11.28 59.90 358.53 -338.94 -27.60 16.39
FCF 3,826.58 2,283.94 1,911.87 3,119.65 3,722.50 1,831.04 7,037.59 6,654.06 1,501.41 7,044.14
HISTORICA
L
DELTA DELTA VALUATIO
NETWORTH MKTCAP IMPACT* NS
10 YR -6611 19601 -2.96
7 YR 1238 30080 24.29 MIN
5 YR -2017 40157 -19.91 MAX
3 YR 7638 22243 2.91 TRAILING
1 YR 3035 26437 8.71
* IMPACT – Every Rupee retained added xx.yy in incremental market value
Capex/Net Profits 10 yr 0%
Capex/Net Profits 7 yr -14%
Capex/Net Profits 5 yr -30%
Capex/Net Profits 3 yr -66%
Capex/Depreciation 10 yr -8%
P/E P/B EV/EBITDA P/SALES YIELD P/CFO
3.91 0.69 2.12 1.42 14.50% 4.23
12.82 2.30 6.06 4.66 3.59% 17.79
10.03 2.38 5.98 2.74 3.49% 8.24
Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 TTM input TTM BS data in Balance Sheet fro
1.13 1.24 1.38 1.32 1.39 #DIV/0!
0.16 0.32 0.19 0.38 0.60
0.86 0.80 0.54 0.93 1.19
1.01 1.12 0.73 1.31 1.80
0.02 0.07 0.10 0.09 0.13
619.85 530.20 334.22 102.63 102.63
68.29% 64.53% 53.64% 105.35% 100.65% Check for improving or deteriorating pi
16.17 16.68 12.22 6.64 7.70
23 22 30 55 47
69 51 42 90 60
1 1 0 1 1 Check back to see if Creditor policy cha
91 72 71 144 107
1.53 1.59 2.15 2.20 2.39
3.61 2.97 3.73 4.58 4.23
0.60 1.16 0.74 0.33 1.33
k back what is really driving RoA (Net Margins or Asset Turns, or both)
k back what is really driving RoE (Net Margins, Asset Turns, or Financial Leverage)
k back what is really driving RoIC (Op Margins or Capital Turns, or both)
META
Number of shares 879.18
Face Value 1
Current Price 69.32
Market Capitalization 60944.88
Quarters
Report Date Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23
Sales 4767.07 3328.45 3719.99 5851.37
Expenses 2868.67 2477.29 2579.37 3689.02
Other Income 145.86 426.19 204.63 1228.23
Depreciation 84.93 74.15 83.71 93.39
Interest 15.34 18.19 29.93 11.77
Profit before tax 1943.99 1185.01 1231.61 3285.42
Tax 472.75 299.36 327.62 1008.48
Net profit 1445.48 972.22 912.33 2271.53
Operating Profit 1898.4 851.16 1140.62 2162.35
BALANCE SHEET
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Equity Share Capital 396.47 396.47 316.39 316.39
Reserves 31870.17 28783.62 22265.82 24101.02
Borrowings 1496.95 500.09
Other Liabilities 2197.2 2078.74 3201.45 3773.82
Total 34463.84 32755.78 25783.66 28691.32
Net Block 1468.17 2058.46 2095.13 3457.21
Capital Work in Progress 7800.58 9747.08 11855.45 12545.06
Investments 319.11 591.64 612.3 672.73
Other Assets 24875.98 20358.6 11220.78 12016.32
Total 34463.84 32755.78 25783.66 28691.32
Receivables 1752.33 796.07 1043.52 1472.74
Inventory 691.88 622.05 540.04 571.69
Cash & Bank 18486.06 14806.14 5320.51 5460.98
No. of Equity Shares 3964716000 3964716000 3163890474 3163890474
New Bonus Shares
Face value 1 1 1 1
CASH FLOW:
Report Date Mar-15 Mar-16 Mar-17 Mar-18
Cash from Operating Activity 3999.14 2501.96 2108.52 3376.28
Cash from Investing Activity -517.16 3644.64 5171.34 -1864.88
Cash from Financing Activity -3449.44 -6290.35 -7249.32 -1557.17
Net Cash Flow 32.54 -143.75 30.54 -45.77
DERIVED:
Adjusted Equity Shares in Cr 1,189.41 1,189.41 949.17 949.17
PLEASE DO NOT MAKE ANY CHANGES TO THIS SHEET
1 1 1 1 1 1
1 2 3 4 5 6
DCF 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
FCF 5629.48 0 2814.74 5629.48 6473.902 7444.9873
10.00% 1.1 1.21 1.331 1.4641 1.61051 1.771561
12.00% 1.12 1.2544 1.404928 1.5735194 1.7623417 1.9738227
15.00% 1.15 1.3225 1.520875 1.7490062 2.0113572 2.3130608
Discount Rate
Discounted FCF at R=10 5117.70909 0 2114.7558 3845.0106 4019.7838 4202.5012
Sum of Discounted FCF
Discounted FCF at R=12 5026.32143 0 2003.4763 3577.6363 3673.4659 3771.8623
FCF/SHARE 3485.74613
Price 100
Ratio 0.02868826
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 TTM
15328.05 25857.84 17596.29 21286.88
8912.73 13054.57 7721.16 8029.91 8,663.03
9141.27 13342.31 8057.34 8380.57 9,032.53
8790.27 12626.46 6053.74 7293.62 7,834.43
6276.64 9428.16 5602.56 5570.87 6,078.94
2274.22 4319.85 1934.26 2124.76
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 1HFY17
29884.05 18018.25 22620.83 25655.9 0.00
9918.1 13927.44 18611.66 21447.35 0.00
check historical normalised levels of cash/total assets for excluding one-off
31009.43 18923.24 23808.27 28058.62 0.00
31884.33 19818.19 24748.7 29014.68
36929.79 24912.34 29952.92 35661.03 0.00
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
7266.13 6941.8 1837.59 7394.8
1980.51 -15807.79 536.99 1765.32 CHECK? derived from BS
5285.62 22749.59 1300.60 5629.48
21% 52% 25% 22%
36% 46% 35% 38%
30% 27% 28% 30%
6259.28 9468.75 5592.21 5626.07
20% 50% 23% 20%
12% 12% 12% 12%
2538.14 7197.96 2735.21 2259.03
149% 87% 32% 1%
45% 71% -30% 18%
-76% 744% -58% -221%
1.45 0.67 0.19
13% 28% 16% 13% coy can grow at this rate safely with internal accruals
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 CURRENT
30709.76 36881.60 32687.91 59124.85 60944.88
32983.98 41201.45 34622.17 61249.62
4002.42 5108.31 3668.3 3446.11
26848.22 30704.07 27718.03 50119.98
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24
4.89 3.91 5.83 10.61
1.03 2.05 1.45 2.30
4.23 5.31 17.79 8.00
2.00 1.42 1.85 2.77
2.94 2.30 3.44 5.98
7.41% 11.71% 5.92% 3.59%
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Z-Weights
0.27 0.56 0.62 0.60 1.2
0.11 0.21 0.12 0.10 1.4
0.24 0.52 0.26 0.23 3.3
0.83 1.48 1.09 1.66 0.6
0.42 1.04 0.59 0.60 1
2.19 4.62 3.01 3.19
Growth Rate Perpetu 6.00%
7 8 9 10
2026 2027 2028 2029
8561.7354 9845.9957 11322.895 13021.329
1.9487171 2.1435888 2.3579477 2.5937425
2.2106814 2.4759632 2.7730788 3.1058482
2.6600199 3.0590229 3.5178763 4.0455577
Steady State Value ### ### (as per Rajshekhar Iyer formula)
Future Value ### ### (present value of year 10 shareholder future value)
Value ### ###
Value/Share 361.69 202.96
(as per Credit Suisse paper What's captured in P/E)
Mar-21 Mar-22 Mar-23 Mar-24 Consensus Forecasts 5 Yr Avg Inputs TTM
15370.1 25964.8 17666.9 21307.9 Sales Growth Rate 16.17% 15% 0.00%
1980.51 -15808 536.99 1765.32 EBIT Margin 18.00% 18% 38.97%
228.54 287.74 336.18 350.66 Tax Rate 31% 25%
1751.97 -16096 200.81 1414.66 Inc Fixed Capital Rate -355.22% 20%
3670.84 10594.7 -8297.91 3640.97 Inc Working Capital Rate 498.34% 15%
47.73% ### -2.42% 38.85% Cost of Capital 12%
104.17% -52.26% ### ### Inflation Rate 5%
-29.69% Cash & Bank Balance ###
Investments 956.06
9918.1 13927.4 18611.7 21447.4 Non-Operative Assets ###
1928.92 4009.34 4684.22 2835.69 Debt ###
52.55% 37.84% -56.45% 77.88% # Shares Outstanding 879.18
-93.80% 34.48% 171.34% 144.50% CMP 69.32
-13.76%
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Mar-25 Mar-26 Mar-27 Mar-28 Mar-29 Mar-30 Mar-31 Mar-32 Mar-33 Mar-34
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
8,485.82 9,758.70 ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
6,364.37 7,319.02 8,416.88 9,679.41 ### ### ### ### ### ###
1,229.83 1,414.30 1,626.45 1,870.42 2,150.98 2,473.63 2,844.67 3,271.37 3,762.08 4,326.39
922.37 1,060.73 1,219.84 1,402.81 1,613.23 1,855.22 2,133.50 2,453.53 2,821.56 3,244.79
4,212.17 4,843.99 5,570.59 6,406.18 7,367.11 8,472.17 9,743.00 ### ### ###
2,134.01 2,191.18 2,249.87 2,310.13 2,372.01 2,435.55 2,500.78 2,567.77 2,636.55 2,707.17
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### ### ### ### 86315.63 ### 94596.95 ###
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ### ###
### ### ### ### ### ### 96276.56 ### ### ###
84.06 88.03 92.10 96.28 100.57 104.98 109.51 114.15 118.93 123.83