Ey Recai 62 v7 Final

Start
Contents
03 04 05
Foreword
Foreword RECAI 62 Normalized index RECAI 62
06 07 13
Normalized index
PPA Index Key developments Analysis PPA Index

Renewables highlights Where the wind blows
from around the world
Key developments
20 26 27
Analysis
Data and
Data and methodology How EY teams can help Contacts
methodology
RECAI 62
Normalized index
How EY teams
PPA Index
can help
Contacts
Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 02

Foreword
There is no time to waste in the global Ambition such as that of the 3xRenewables campaign, These problems are not limited to one market, however.
race to decarbonize our entire way of life. which is led by the Global Renewables Alliance (GRA) Supply chain difficulties have resulted in global
and of which EY is a signatory. It is urging global leaders project costs rising by 39% since 2019,2 and the
The rewards for doing so will be bountiful,
to triple the world’s renewable energy capacity to sector is operating in a post-COVID-19 economy
and the consequences of not doing so 11,000GW by 2030. that is feeling the effects of an energy-price Foreword
unthinkable.
The technology we employ to achieve this and the
Such growth in renewable energy is not linear, however,
spike caused by the war in Ukraine and
macroeconomic tensions.
Key takeaways
but instead follows an “S” curve typical of such new
way we finance transitional projects are among the • We need to move faster to meet our net-zero
technologies. We are now approaching the inflection Crucially, we ask whether this is a
topics to be discussed at the UN Climate Change ambitions. EY is calling on governments to triple
point in this curve, where we will see rapid, exponential temporary blip, or if such factors are here
global renewable energy capacity to 11,000GW RECAI 62
Conference (COP28) in the United Arab Emirates growth that will enable us to decarbonize faster and to stay. Is offshore wind entering a new
from 30 November to 12 December. by 2030.
achieve the GRA members’ ambitions — but only if the chapter, and is it still a good place for
COP28 will also be the end date for the first-ever right accelerators are in place first. investors to put their money? • Highest climbers in RECAI 62 include the Nordic
countries, Belgium and Romania. Markets
global stocktake — a five-yearly process by which, Can we scale fast enough? Can we connect to the To answer this last point right dropping down the rankings include the UK,
Normalized index
collectively, markets and stakeholders can see grid quickly enough? Can we streamline the permitting away: emphatically, yes. There
where they are making progress, or not, toward the Japan and Chile.
process, and are the right funding mechanisms in are some real winners in offshore
goals of the Paris Climate Change Agreement. place? Do we have the right infrastructure and supply wind right now, such as Germany, • The UK loses its status as the world’s No. 1 place
chains? We need to be prepared to act swiftly if we which awarded nearly 9GW over for offshore wind, as a government auction
The stocktake looks at where the world stands
fails to attract any bidders because of increased
PPA Index
on climate action and support — but, as UN are to capitalize on the opportunity that’s just around two auctions this year, and the
Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell the corner. Nordics, with Sweden approving costs, which weren’t fully reflected in target
points out, it is not just a routine checkup. It is a two west coast offshore wind strike prices.
To find out which markets are best prepared to move
“moment for course correction”; an opportunity to farms this year, and Finland having • Offshore wind is crucial to achieving net zero,
fast, we need only look at the RECAI 62 rankings. Key developments
ramp up ambition.1 awarded 1.3GW in late 2022 and but the sector is facing challenging times from a
The top three spots remain unchanged, with the US,
announcing an ambitious 6GW
Germany and China out in the lead. And the Nordic squeezed supply chain and escalating costs.
auction program by 2024. China
markets are showing their renewable energy intent, • Tensions in the offshore supply chain could be
is also set to continue its growth
with Denmark, Sweden and Norway climbing two, eased by standardizing technologies and giving
three and five places respectively.
in offshore wind, despite ceasing Analysis
national-level subsidies. more certainty to manufacturers and developers.
Offshore wind — often cited as the closest thing we • When auctioning contracts for offshore wind
In many ways, offshore wind is a
currently have to a sustainable form of baseload energy generation, governments should reflect
microcosm of the larger renewable Data and
generation — will be essential to global decarbonization. economic conditions in the design of the auction.
energy industry as a whole. It’s maturing
So, in this edition of RECAI, we take a detailed look at
and has been immensely successful in
methodology
the sector, which has experienced a difficult 12 months • Considering moving away from cost-only
reducing costs via stringent competition. auction formats and incorporating non-price
because of challenging economic headwinds. This is
Arnaud de Giovanni reflected most clearly in the performance of the UK in The sector has the opportunity to modulate the factors would boost the supply chain, improve
EY Global Renewables Leader deliverability and benefit wider society.
How EY teams
the RECAI 62 scores: down three places, to seventh, pace of technology progress to take advantage
because of its high dependence on offshore wind in its of economies of scale; governments can end the
can help
energy mix. “race to the bottom” on cost and start thinking about
security of supply and value to society instead. Crucially,
What went so wrong for the UK, where zero bidders
they can also join up energy policy with industrial policy. Contacts
expressed an interest in the 2023 AR5 offshore wind
Governments, developers and investors that get this right
auction? In our deep dive, we look at how escalating raw
will be winners in the long term.
materials costs weren’t properly reflected in the strike
prices of the auction, and how a squeezed supply chain We must move quickly to meet our climate responsibilities. Key
Ben Warren
RECAI Chief Editor is struggling to cope with the pressure of looming 2030 players the world over need to hold their nerve and keep their foot on
Partner, Renewables Corporate Finance, net-zero targets. the accelerator. It’s never been more important.
Ernst & Young LLP
RECAI 62
Index US
1
Germany
2 China Mainland
3
Since 2003, the biannual RECAI has France
4
ranked the world’s top 40 markets on Australia 0 US +2 Denmark Foreword
the attractiveness of their renewable 5
The US retains the top spot amid A policy allowing issuance of guarantees
energy investment and deployment India significant solar growth driven by Inflation of origin for green hydrogen supports
6
opportunities. The rankings reflect our Reduction Act incentives. Market players Denmark’s role in the energy transition and
UK are putting pressure on the government is a key decarbonization factor for hard-to-
RECAI 62
assessments of market attractiveness and 7
regarding offshore wind requirements. abate sectors.
global market trends. 1 2
3
5 8 Spain
7
6
9 Denmark Normalized index
4
0 Germany +1 Italy
8
Saudi Arabia 40
40 10 Netherlands There has been significant growth in Italy aims to increase the amount of
11 Germany’s onshore wind sector, with the renewables in its energy mix to 65% by
39
Romania 39 Increased attractiveness compared
9 11 Canada
volume of new capacity installed by the end 2030. New renewable capacity in H1 2023
PPA Index
44 with previous index of September exceeding the total installed of 2.5GW represents a 120% increase on
Thailand 38 12
in 2022. 2022’s rate.
38 Decreased attractiveness compared
with previous index 12 Ireland
South Africa 37 37 13
No change in attractiveness since
10 Key developments
Kazakhstan 36 32 previous index 13 Japan
35 15 -3 UK -2 Chile
Mexico 35 14 Italy
34 Current ranking shown in circles with 17 The failure of Contracts for Difference Despite lofty new battery storage
Switzerland 34 previous ranking noted at the bottom (CfD) Round 5 to attract new offshore wind
capacity, plus the diminishing of green
targets, Chile continues to struggle with
intermittency issues driven by solar
Analysis
36 14 15
of each segment Poland policies, has left investors with reduced curtailment throughout the country.
Vietnam 33 33 20 confidence in UK renewables.
16
16
28 Chile
Philippines 32 Data and
27 18
17 methodology
Egypt 31 30 21 Sweden
29 24
Turkey
30 25
31 23 26 19
22 18
Greece
-3 Japan +5 Romania
Argentina
29 19 Despite significant natural resources and a Romania is set to tender 1GW of onshore How EY teams
28 20 Brazil commitment to reduce fossil fuels, Japan wind and 1GW of solar as the first steps in
can help
Austria 27 21 Finland
is falling behind other leading economies in its multiyear plan to award 20GW of CfD-
26 22 terms of solar and wind deployment. backed capacity.
South Korea 25 24 23 Belgium
Norway Portugal
Taiwan
Contacts
Morocco Israel See page 22 for RECAI methodology.
The RECAI model’s energy imperative pillar has been slightly adjusted to ensure that markets with a strong and demonstrable commitment to
deploying green energy are scored positively.

Normalized index
RECAI uses various criteria to compare the attractiveness of renewables markets, such as the magnitude of the development
pipeline, that reflect the absolute size of the renewable investment opportunity. Hence, the index naturally benefits large
economies. However, by normalizing with the gross domestic product (GDP) we can see which markets are performing above
expectations for their economic size.
Foreword
In this way, the normalized index helps reveal ambitious plans for energy transition in smaller economies, creating some
attractive alternatives for potential investors.
RECAI 62
Normalized
ranking
Market
Previous
ranking
Movement vs.
previous
RECAI
ranking
Normalized
ranking
Market
Previous
ranking
Movement vs.
previous
RECAI
ranking
0 Morocco
Morocco is forecast to bring more than 1GW of renewables
capacity online every year between 2023 and 2027, while the
Normalized index
1 Denmark 3 9 21 Canada 21 11
US$20b Xlinks Morocco-UK Power Project interconnector is on
2 Morocco 2 25 22 Honduras 23 58 track for commissioning during 2030.
3 Greece 1 18 23 Norway 25 26
PPA Index
4 Australia 6 5 24 Austria 26 28
-2
+1 Greece
5 Chile 5 16 25 Taiwan 28 24
Greece is showing good progress toward 2030 and 2050
targets. It has recently surpassed 11GW of installed
6 Ireland 7 12 26 Egypt 20 31
renewables capacity, with 1.7GW of green hydrogen Key developments
7 Portugal 10 22 27 Italy 31 14 electrolyzers in planning.
8 Netherlands 14 10 28 Vietnam 36 33
9 Finland 9 20 29 Philippines 24 32 Analysis

+1 Ireland
10 France 11 4 30 US 30 1 A new memorandum of understanding with the UK to support
offshore renewable energy and increase interconnectivity
11 Spain 13 8 31 Tunisia 29 55 is expected to improve Irish energy security and reduce Data and
12 Jordan 4 45 32 Dominican Republic 35 46
intermittency risk.
methodology
13 Germany 8 2 33 Argentina 33 29
14 Poland 17 15 34 China Mainland 34 3 +3 Portugal How EY teams

15 Sweden 19 17 35 Romania 47 39 Portugal’s new 2030 target of 85% renewables generation
can help
has led to huge growth in forecast capacity in solar, wind and
16 India 16 6 36 Kenya 27 48 hydrogen electrolyzers, reducing reliance on gas.
17 UK 12 7 37 Bulgaria 41 50 Contacts
18 Israel 15 23 38 Panama 39 54
19 Kazakhstan 18 36 39 Peru 40 41
See page 23 for normalized RECAI methodology.
20 Belgium 22 21 40 South Africa 32 37

PPA Index
Spain
Although it was knocked off the top spot by Germany in June
2023, Spain continues to be a strong market for corporate
Calmer wholesale markets, but PPA PPAs, with more than 800MW in more than eight deals during
Q3 2023.4 Spain also leads all markets (except the US) in terms
landscape may yet be ruffled by rising costs of total capacity of corporate PPAs to date: an impressive
7.4GW.5 This huge supply of projects, 59% of which are solar,
of generation and geopolitical unrest Germany

Spain
has led to bottlenecks in grid connection queues, however,
and some summertime cannibalization of prices — showing the Foreword
1 US importance of negotiating liquidated damages for delay and fully
2 understanding profile risk.
3 UK
It has been a challenging year The greatest tension in the 4 France
for power purchase agreements corporate PPA market, however, RECAI 62
5
(PPAs) in 2023, as more and more is from rising costs of generation
Australia
UK
corporates target new deals, while and lowering long-term wholesale
6 Staying at number four in our index, the UK has experienced
supply chain, grid and permitting markets, resulting in a tightening quite a shift in the PPA market in the past few months, because
delays continue to hamper price band where PPA deals work 1 2 Denmark of some surprising results in the government’s latest Contracts Normalized index
3
4
7 for Difference auction: No offshore wind projects bid in because
progress in many markets. for both developer return and
5 recent increases in offshore costs made the low clearing price
corporate savings.
Having said that, in Europe, Netherlands unviable, so 1.5GW of onshore wind, and 1.9MW of solar
6 8 photovoltaic (PV), won awards instead. Consequently, a large
7.1GW of PPAs had been signed
number of onshore wind and solar projects were taken away
by the end of September (more 8
Sweden from potential corporate PPAs, thinning liquidity in the market PPA Index
than the total 6.6GW in 2022) and 9
9 and placing some upward pressure on prices.
the 2021 record of 7.6GW is likely Increased attractiveness compared
with previous index 11
to be exceeded.3
10 Poland
Decreased attractiveness compared Key developments
After the extreme prices and with previous index
10
Sweden
volatility of 2022, wholesale
No change in attractiveness since 12 11 Finland Sweden has jumped up two ranks into the top 10, as it
markets calmed in the first nine continues to see appetite from corporates in the region.
previous index
months of 2023. However, unrest Although predominantly a wind market, historically, 7% of
Bulgaria 30 13
in the Middle East has already 27
New entry
12 Italy Sweden’s 4.2GW PPAs to date have been solar PV.6 This Analysis
started to impact markets globally, 7 proportion is expected to rise because of the scarcity of solar-
Current ranking shown in circles with
Ethiopia 29
shaped generation in the Nordic mix and much higher prices in
through greater volatility and an 25
previous ranking noted at the bottom 15 the sunnier southern grid regions of SE3, and especially SE4,
uptick in pricing. 13
28 of each segment 14 India compared with the windy north — SE1 and SE2 — with much
Data and
Thailand 28
lower prices.
Thankfully, high inflation rates 26 methodology
that were affecting many PPA 14
16 Norway
markets have been easing in 27 19
Romania 18
17
recent months, helping PPA 20
21 22 15 Canada How EY teams
26 24 23
prices to level off, or even Greece Brazil
16 Canada has entered the index for the first time as the number can help
decline, in some markets. Other
helpful drivers in Europe include
25 Canada of corporate PPAs build in the Alberta market. There have been
Japan 17 at least five deals in the past year covering 500MW, four from
the revision of the Renewable 24 onshore wind projects and one from solar PV. Typical tenors are
18 Ireland
Energy Directive (REDIII), to Portugal 23
19
15 years in length. It is hoped that other provinces may follow
Contacts
target 42.5% renewables for 22 21 20 Chile
Alberta’s direction in terms of opening up for corporate PPAs,
South Africa further extending the growth across the rest of Canada.
all EU energy consumption by Colombia Egypt
2030, and speeding up the Morocco Belgium
permit-granting process. See page 25 for PPA methodology.

Key developments
Renewables highlights from

around the world 1
No change
3
No change
4Up 1
5Up 2
Foreword
RECAI ranking RECAI ranking RECAI ranking RECAI ranking
Amid a backdrop of subdued economic activity and rising
geopolitical tensions — and with 2030 on the horizon —
markets are assessing their progress toward achieving their RECAI 62
net-zero targets. Here, we look at key developments within
10 global markets — from Australia’s plan to build one of the
7 15 19 31
world’s largest batteries to Poland’s first offshore wind project. Normalized index
Down 3 Up 2 Down 1 Down 3
RECAI ranking RECAI ranking RECAI ranking RECAI ranking PPA Index
Key developments
32Up 1
40Down 1
Analysis
RECAI ranking RECAI ranking Data and

methodology
How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Key developments
1 3
US: Solar surge to add record production capacity China: Solar and wind lead charge to smash
2030 targets Foreword
No change No change
The US solar sector is booming, with the market expected to add a record 32GW of China’s transition to net zero is accelerating rapidly, with the market on target to
RECAI ranking production capacity in 2023,7 up 53% from the new capacity added in 2022. Financial RECAI ranking easily reach its renewable installation targets by 2030. By the end of this decade, its
incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) have been cited as the key driver for utility-scale solar and wind power capacity is expected to double from its current level RECAI 62
this growth. and surpass its 2030 target of 1.2TW of wind and solar capacity in 2025, five years
early.
With increased investment in domestic manufacturing, the US could see production
of solar photovoltaic (PV) components expand tenfold by 2026 if all the planned At the end of the first quarter of 2023, 228GW of utility-scale solar was online,
Normalized index
factories are built. With the expansion of domestic module manufacturing, the market’s representing more than 50% of the global utility-scale solar capacity. Another 379GW
solar module supply looks to be stable for the years ahead.8 Moreover, as the policies of solar power is under construction, and the market’s combined offshore and
outlined in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) come into play, Wood Mackenzie projects a onshore wind capacity has passed 310GW. This is roughly equal to the combined wind
remarkable growth trajectory for the sector. It anticipates that the total operating solar capacity of the other top seven markets.11
capacity will surge from the current 153GW to a staggering 375GW by 2028.9 PPA Index
In 2022, investment in solar power skyrocketed by 232% to reach CNY286.6b
Offshore wind has stumbled, however. A combination of inflation, higher financing (US$39.2b). Fitch Ratings believes this robust growth in renewable-capacity
costs and supply bottlenecks have contributed to low developer interest, and a number installations will continue, supported by energy transition needs and decreasing
of projects being reassessed, with some developers canceling offtake agreements and project costs. China’s investments in generation assets rose by 54% year on year in Key developments
others attempting to renegotiate terms. Wind power costs have risen by as much as 1H 2023, to CNY332b (US$45b), with 64% in solar and wind. Wind and solar power
30% since the start of 2022, and pressure is now mounting on the government to ease supplied about 17% of its total power consumption in 1H 2023, exceeding the 2023
requirements for subsidies provided in the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). target of 15.3%.12
The US has ambitious plans for its fledgling offshore wind sector and is seeking to add China has targets to source 33% of its power from renewable energy by 2025 and to Analysis
30GW of capacity by 2030. Currently, it has no large-scale commercial wind farms in reach net zero by 2060. If it can achieve its net-zero target, climate experts believe it
operation; however, Vineyard Wind 1 and South Fork are expected to deliver their first could curb global warming by 0.2°C to 0.3°C this century.13
power before the end of the year, and a couple of dozen projects are in development. If Data and
China has also launched its green power certificates, with projects granted a
the US can reach its 2030 goal, it will have enough energy to power 10 million homes.
certificate by the government for each megawatt hour of renewable power produced. methodology
Without reforms to tax credits, however, current headwinds are starting to make its
All wind, rooftop, ground-mounted and concentrating solar power systems,
lofty goal appear unreachable.10
geothermal, biomass and ocean energy developments are eligible for the certificates,
which are valid for two years and can be traded in for payments by the government.14 How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Key developments
4 5
France: Massive 10GW offshore wind tender proposed Australia: 1.2GW battery signals breakthrough for
energy storage Foreword
Up 1 Up 2
France is in the early stages of developing its offshore wind sector, as it looks to Australia has granted federal approval for one of the world’s largest batteries to
RECAI ranking accelerate uptake of renewables to reach its climate targets. The market’s energy RECAI ranking be built at the Melbourne Renewable Energy Hub. Developer Equis will now work
transition minister has said an offshore wind auction of “unprecedented size” to secure a notice to proceed with construction of the 1.2GW/2.4GWh battery, RECAI 62
will be held after maritime spatial planning and zoning, which is expected to be planned to start in late 2023, with commercial operations scheduled to begin
completed by September 2024. The French government has not indicated the in 2025.
size of the tender, but industry body France Renouvelables has proposed a 10GW
The enormous battery, which will use lithium iron phosphate batteries, will
tender.
have the capacity to power more than one million households. It will feature
Normalized index
Paris has also indicated that it will use contract for difference style auctions for six separate 200MW points of connection to Australia’s grid to satisfy different
future offshore wind allocations. A target of 40GW of offshore wind by 2050 has uses and grid responses simultaneously. The project will also include a small
been set, with a 2030 goal of 18GW — an ambitious endeavor considering France’s solar component and will have the potential to be expanded in another phase,
offshore wind capacity was 482MW at the end of the second quarter of 2023. to include hydrogen and battery recycling facilities.17 PPA Index
France is updating its energy and climate programming law to incorporate EU Australia has set a near-term target of generating 50% of its electricity from
climate targets. Near-term goals have already been set, with the market vowing renewable sources by 2030. At the end of 2022, 35.9% of the market’s
to quit coal use and produce one million electric vehicles and heat pumps annually power came from renewable sources, only a modest increase from 32.5% at Key developments
by 2027. It has also committed to go from 60% fossil fuels to 40% by 2030.15 the end of 2021. To accelerate its energy transition, Australia will ramp up
wind power generation, with the aim of adding 20GW of new wind power by
France must triple its use of renewable energy by 2035 to reach its EU climate
2030. Additionally, it has earmarked up to AU$3b (US$2b) from the National
targets. In addition to rapidly developing its offshore wind sector, it wants to
Reconstruction Fund for renewables manufacturing to combat supply chain
increase its onshore capacity from 21GW in 2022 to 35GW by 2030, while almost Analysis
challenges in the global offshore wind sector.18
quadrupling its PV solar capacity from 16GW to 60GW over the same period.16
Data and
methodology
How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Key developments
7 15
UK: Onshore gets a boost as offshore stumbles Poland: First offshore wind project attracts
record financing Foreword
Down 3 Up 2
Offshore wind flopped in the UK’s latest Contracts for Difference (CfD) round in Poland is to begin construction of its first offshore wind farm after a final
RECAI ranking September. For the first time, no power deals were awarded for fixed-bottom RECAI ranking investment decision was taken to build the 1.2GW Baltic Power offshore wind
or floating offshore wind projects, a huge setback in the UK’s goal of reaching farm. The project, 23km off the coast from Leba, is expected to be completed RECAI 62
50GW of offshore capacity by 2030. in 2026 and will supply renewable energy to about 1.5 million households.
With a generation capacity of 4,000GWh of electricity, it will produce the
The sector had been warning for months that the terms on offer were too low
equivalent of about 3% of Poland’s current electricity output. The €4.73b
given the major cost and supply chain pressures that the sector has experienced
since the previous auction, when 7GW of fixed-bottom offshore was awarded.
(US$5b) project has secured a €4.4b (US$4.6b) loan, the largest financing for Normalized index
a single investment in the market’s history.
Currently, the UK’s offshore wind capacity is 14GW, and its offshore sector has
been a global leader. However, faced by increased costs of roughly 20% to 40%, An offshore wind farm installation terminal — capable of handling and installing
bidders expressed hesitancy at the rates on offer.19 wind turbines of 15MW or above — will also be constructed at the Port of
Świnoujście and is expected to be finished in early 2025. After supporting the PPA Index
HM Treasury has held talks with developers and supply chain companies to
construction of the Baltic Power project, it will be used for other projects in the
discuss initiatives to help offset the rise in capital expenditure that is plaguing
Baltic Sea, including ventures in German, Swedish and Danish waters.
projects. New support measures could be unveiled in November’s Autumn
Statement, including capital allowances and a more favorable tax status, such Meanwhile, Poland’s state-controlled energy company ORLEN has been Key developments
as, potentially, reforming the Electricity Generator Levy on renewables, a 45% granted licenses for an additional five offshore wind farms that, collectively,
tax on revenues above £75/MWh.20 will generate 5.2GW of renewable energy capacity.23
After last year’s record renewable energy auction, in which 11GW was awarded, Poland has also signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU) with
just 3.7GW was granted in this year’s auction, with solar power receiving 1.9GW Norwegian Offshore Wind, a Norway-based representative body, and the two Analysis
of capacity and onshore wind 1.5GW.21 It marks a change of fortune for onshore markets will examine ways to harness collective expertise and share resources
wind after the government’s streamlining of planning rules, in place since 2015, to drive innovation and improve the competitiveness of the Polish offshore
that had impeded development of new onshore wind farms because a single wind sector.24 Data and
objection could stop a project from progressing. A new measure to incentivize
In addition, Poland has introduced new legislation to increase the proportion methodology
more onshore projects will also be introduced to allow communities supporting
of renewable energy sources in its energy mix. The bill removes permit
local wind farms to benefit from cheaper energy.22
requirements for solar PVs up to 150kW25 and has changed the 10-times-
height distance rule for wind turbine locations to 700m.26 At the end of How EY teams
June, Poland’s installed renewable capacity was 25GW, up 5GW in the last can help
12 months.
Contacts

Key developments
19 31
Brazil: Investment ramped up in wind and solar Egypt: Moves to accelerate pace of low-carbon transition
Foreword
Down 1 Down 3
Brazil is targeting growth in its solar and wind sectors after an August Egypt has brought forward its target of generating 42% of its energy from renewable
RECAI ranking announcement of plans to invest BRL41.5b (US$8.2b) and BRL22b (US$4.3b) RECAI ranking sources from 2035 to 2030, as part of its updated Nationally Determined Contribution
respectively. It will build out solar capacity in the states of Bahia, Ceará, Minas climate plan. To expedite the achievement of this goal, Egypt will seek grants and soft RECAI 62
Gerais, Paraíba, Pernambuco, Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte, adding 8.6GW financing of €500m (US$526m) as it aims to add 10GW of new renewable energy.29
of new solar power. The market will also invest in 120 projects that will add
During the current fiscal year, the North African market is targeting investment of
5.2GW of wind power across the states of Bahia, Ceará, Paraíba, Pernambuco,
more than EGP81b (US$2.6b) and will add US$2.2b in public investment to boost the
Piauí and Rio Grande do Norte.
renewables share of its energy mix to 11.8%. The market has also hinted that it plans
Normalized index
In addition to solar and wind, Brazil will develop 20 small hydroelectric to enforce legal frameworks for the renewables sector to attract more investment.30
projects as part of the third edition of its Growth Acceleration Program. The
With an abundance of sun and high wind speeds, Egypt aims to build on its position
program will also earmark BRL89b (US$17.5b) for transmission projects to
increase renewable generation capacity by up to 70%.27
as a regional energy hub and export wind and solar energy to the UK via subsea PPA Index
cables. Wind speeds can reach 10.5m per second along the Gulf of Suez, helping the
Brazil is in the middle of regulating the development of a carbon credit market. market produce 1.64GW of wind energy in 2022. Egypt already boasts a 250MW
A bill, which was unanimously approved by the senate, will now be debated in interconnector with Jordan, as well as an 80MW interconnector with Sudan.31
the lower house. Under the proposed legislation, all companies that issue more Key developments
than 10,000 tonnes of CO2 per year will be entered into the carbon market.
Companies that do not reach their greenhouse gas reduction targets will be
able to buy credits from others that do reduce their emissions. The purchase
and sale of the carbon credits will be conducted on stock exchanges.28
Analysis
Data and
methodology
How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Key developments
32 40
Philippines: Law change boosts outlook for solar PV Saudi Arabia: Rapid acceleration needed to reach
renewables target Foreword
Up 1 Down 1
The Philippines is seeking to unlock its huge solar potential, with reforms Saudi Arabia is moving its renewable energy sector forward, with 22.8GW of
RECAI ranking to foreign ownership laws spurring growth in commercial and industrial RECAI ranking projects in development as of October 2023, 2.8GW of which are expected to be
solar power. operational by the end of this year.36 RECAI 62
In December 2022, changes to the Renewable Energy Act removed the The Kingdom has indicated it will embrace all sources of renewables, and study
requirement for 100% Filipino ownership of certain renewable energy emerging technologies carefully, to achieve its national targets. In October, it
assets, and spurred solar PV development. This, combined with a liberal signed an MoU with India for green hydrogen, electrical interconnections and
energy market and the only spot market in the Association of Southeast supply chains. Under the agreement, the markets will cooperate on the exchange
Normalized index
Asian Nations (ASEAN) region, is making the Philippines a popular choice of electricity in peak times and during emergencies, the co-development of
for solar developers. The regulatory framework for permits has also been projects and the establishment of resilient renewables supply chains.37
streamlined and there is a greater degree of freedom to operate in the
market compared with monopolies in other ASEAN markets.32
Saudi Arabia also revealed in September that it is in discussions with a Chinese PPA Index
solar materials manufacturer to build an overseas factory in the Kingdom. This will
In October, the Philippines’ first canal-top solar irrigation project came be capable of producing 120,000 tons of polysilicon annually, a crucial material in
online, and more than 140 solar-powered irrigation projects are expected the solar PV supply chain.
to be finished before the end of the year. A further 180 projects are in the
The share of renewables in Saudi Arabia’s installed electricity generation capacity Key developments
pipeline for development in 2024.33 In August, plans were also announced
has soared more than twelvefold since 2020 — but, despite this terrific growth, it
to develop 1GW of floating solar power on the market’s largest freshwater
still accounts for only 1.3%. With its current renewable energy generation capacity
lake, Laguna de Bay.34
at just 1.2GW, Saudi Arabia will need to bring online 50 times more green power
However, some obstacles to solar power’s growth in the Philippines still capacity in just seven years to reach its ambitious 2030 target of 58.7GW of Analysis
exist. Slow construction of transmission lines, and the market’s archipelagic renewable energy generation.
geography, means it lacks a developed grid to connect large-scale solar
Recognizing the steep acceleration required to meet this goal, the Ministry of
PV plants to the network. This is forcing the Philippines to focus more on Data and
Energy has said it expects Saudi Arabia to invest US$293b in renewable energy
developing mini-grids and standalone clean power systems.35
projects by 2030, with significant funds earmarked for upgrading distribution methodology
networks and transport lines.38
How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Analysis
Where the wind blows

Stormy waters surround the offshore wind market. Will they bring
Foreword
about a paradigm shift in how we fund and build large-scale energy
projects? And what could this mean for investors?
On 12 July 2023, you might just have heard sharp Rising project costs RECAI 62
intakes of breath the world over as the results of Authors
Germany’s first dynamic offshore wind auctions were Until recently, offshore wind was widely seen as a runaway
Erico Lima
announced. The winning bidders promised to pay success: Ever-declining construction costs, attractive EY Global Offshore Wind Leader
€12.6b (US$13.46b) for the rights to build offshore wind government subsidies, low interest rates and an insatiable erico.lima@uk.ey.com Normalized index
projects in the North and Baltic Seas — ventures that are demand fed by stringent net-zero energy targets have
In brief expected to contribute 7GW of clean sustainable energy

to the German national grid, enough for more than
given investors, developers and manufacturers a great
environment in which to do business. Andrew Horstead
EY Global Power & Utilities
six million homes.
The risk and volatility caused by the continuous pressure Lead Analyst PPA Index
• After years of success, ahorstead@uk.ey.com
A couple of hundred miles away, another auction was to be bigger, better and cheaper, compounded by
offshore wind is at a
taking place that would produce another significant supply chain imbalances on the back of the COVID-19
crossroads in its development,
number: zero. On 8 September 2023, it was announced pandemic and the war in Ukraine, have, however, created Contributors
as spiraling costs and supply
chain issues force developers
that the UK’s fifth allocation round (AR5) for sustainable uncertainty with the economics of projects and squeezed Key developments
energy generation had failed to attract a single bidder for margins in the supply chain. Andrew Perkins
to reassess projects. offshore wind contracts, despite offering similar locations
Partner, Corporate Finance,
Turbine manufacturer Siemens Energy reported profit Ernst & Young LLP
• Surprising results from recent and climatic conditions as the German sale. aperkins@uk.ey.com
before special items for the third quarter of 2023 of
contract auctions worldwide Other signs of turbulence are appearing too. Projects negative €2.048b (Q3 FY 2022: negative €222m). While Analysis
suggest factors other than Anthony Tricot
in late-stage development are being put on hold by this was mainly driven by quality issues of certain onshore EY UK&I Head of Generation and
price should be taken into developers who say they can no longer make a return on platforms, challenges in the offshore business related Power Markets, Economic Consulting
account when assessing bids. their investment. The reasons behind this tell us much to “increased product costs and ramp-up challenges” atricot@uk.ey.com
Data and
about the complexity of the offshore wind market and hint contributed to it.39 Margins for turbine manufacturers (and
• Governments must ensure a
that a change might be in the air.
Kinga Charpentier methodology
regular flow of new projects, for the industry as whole) were squeezed when input costs EY Nordics Renewables Co-Lead
and adjust subsidies and (such as steel and labor) increased in an unprecedented kinga.charpentier@fi.ey.com
budgets to market changes, way, making it difficult to hedge. This has led to a
substantial re-pricing of supply and installation contracts How EY teams
so developers get a
as original equipment manufacturers try to rebalance can help
reasonable return on
US$280b
their books. Cost inflation could add around US$280b
investment.
in capital expenditure40 for the offshore wind sector
(excluding China) over the next decade — a gap that can
only be bridged by higher offtake prices, funded directly
Contacts
by consumers or indirectly through additional fiscal and
amount that cost inflation could add tax incentives.
in capital expenditure for the offshore
wind sector (excluding China) over the
next decade.
Analysis
Wind turbine costs have jumped 39% since 2019 due to supply chain Furthermore, the impact of rising interest rates Anthony Tricot, EY UK&I Head of Generation and
on project economics cannot be underestimated. Power Markets, explains: “The government has
constraints and rising raw material costs “Offshore wind is a mature technology and a a role in setting auction parameters to ensure
Average wind turbine equipment costs have increased 39% in the last three years. This product of the macro environment in which it sits,” they deliver value for money for consumers. The
trend reverses the decline seen in previous years, with costs falling due to advancements in says Andrew Perkins, Partner, Corporate Finance fundamental thing, however, is that this is an Foreword
technology and increased process efficiency. Ernst & Young LLP. “Policymakers have had it very auction where you rely on competition to set the
good up until now — as have consumers. We’ve been price. By setting a low price cap, they prevented
Change in average per megawatt equipment cost of wind turbine, indexed to 2019 lucky to have very low-cost power coming through the market from clearing at a competitive price.”
offshore wind, with the low cost of money and a
Existing CfDs from previous auctions, such as RECAI 62
2012 138% supply chain that has carried on reducing prices as
AR4, are also now being looked at through the
scale has increased, but the actual cost per hour
2013 120% lens of rising project costs. Investors are asking
has now changed. We’ve seen a correction, and
themselves if they can make reasonable returns or
2014 112% that correction is here to stay.”
whether they should walk away from the CfDs and Normalized index
2015 102% The impact is reduced levels of interest in auctions, seek corporate power purchase agreements (PPAs)
some canceled contracts, and a refocus on core or sit and wait for better conditions.
2016 105%
geographies. All of which will have an effect on the
In 2022, for example, Swedish wind energy
2017 104% supply chain, which will experience a pinch point PPA Index
specialist Vattenfall won the contract to build the
2018 101%
when the delayed projects finally make it through
Norfolk Boreas wind farm with a joint record-low
to market — along with other new tenders — toward
2019 100% strike price of £37.35/MWh (US$46.21/MWh).
the back half of this decade.
Since then, however, Vattenfall has warned that
2020 101% costs for equipment and construction expenses Key developments
2021 128% It’s not all about the price have increased to the point where the venture
is no longer economically viable — up 40% from
2022 139% Many auctions for offshore wind projects use a the CfD decision point — and, in August 2023,
39% contract for difference (CfD) model, by which it decided to stop development of the project.
participants compete to offer the lowest per-unit
Analysis
Vattenfall could terminate its CfD and reapply
Note: The change in average equipment is the percentage difference in the average per megawatt equipment cost of cost at which they will sell energy (the “strike for another CfD contract in the future if a more
wind turbine in the respective years compared with the cost in 2019 (base year). In the past decade, the average price”). It’s a format that encourages value for the
equipment cost of wind turbine were lowest in 2019. attractive strike price can be achieved.
taxpayer and provides stability to generators, but Data and
Source: EY analysis of data from GlobalData. Similarly, Danish energy company Ørsted has
the maximum strike price that bidders are allowed methodology
to offer needs to reflect current market conditions warned that it might pause the Hornsea 3 project
if bidders are to have confidence. When it doesn’t, in the UK — expected to be the world’s largest
wind farm when it opens — unless it gets help with
“
we can face the kind of situation the UK found itself
surging costs. Hornsea 3 has the same £37.35/ How EY teams
in with AR5.
MWh strike price as Norfolk Boreas. can help
With AR5, the UK government set a maximum
We’ve been lucky to have very low-cost power coming through strike price of £44 (US$54) per megawatt hour It’s not that the sector is fundamentally broken.
offshore wind, with the low cost of money and a supply chain that (MWh) for offshore wind,41 which was not enough Other countries managed to successfully conclude
has carried on reducing prices as scale has increased, but the actual to entice developers to bid. Curiously, this was less offshore wind tenders at reasonable prices. In Contacts
than the strike prices offered for solar and onshore Ireland, for example, more than 3GW was awarded
cost per hour has now changed. We’ve seen a correction, and that wind in the same auction.
correction is here to stay.
Andrew Perkins
Partner, Corporate Finance, Ernst & Young LLP
Analysis
in June 2023, at an average strike price of €86/ And this isn’t just a UK issue; challenges exist The reasons behind this are complex: US states are Furthermore, around 80% of the 15 markets with
MWh (US$91/MWh). In the Netherlands and across the Atlantic in the US, where we also see subject to different power markets, have their own offshore wind targets for 2030 are predicted to
Germany, subsidies are not even needed, given material price differences across regions and many mandates for renewable energy, and have differing miss their stated goals. To reach 2030 forecasts,
their specific circumstances. More recently, projects struggling. levels of pro- and anti-renewables legislation. an average capacity of 35GW will need to be
Lithuania concluded its first 700MW lease auction
Earlier this year, Avangrid terminated the
The US is also subject to the same global supply installed annually worldwide;44 less than 9GW of Foreword
with no subsidy available, in which an Ocean chain pressures as the rest of the world, although new offshore wind has so far been added in 2023.45
PPA for the Commonwealth Wind project in
Winds/Ignitis Renewables joint venture won with a stringent local content requirements and the The climate emergency and associated net-zero
Massachusetts, paying a US$48m penalty. In
€20m (US$21m) development fee. Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) could result in targets mean there is an urgent need to ramp up
addition, Rhode Island Energy canceled an auction
developers relying more heavily on a domestic investment in the offshore wind supply chain all
There is a real possibility that the UK government where Revolution Wind 2 (owned by Ørsted and RECAI 62
supply chain, rather than importing from overseas. around the world.
could take the lessons learned from AR5, increase Eversource) was the sole bidder, because the price
the strike price ceiling to match the current reality, asked was deemed too expensive and not in the So, has CfD had its day? Maybe not, but factors Many investors are also concerned that if the
revise its budget, and oversize the next auctions, best interests of consumers. other than price may need to be included as the supply chains are built out to satisfy peak
AR6 and AR7. This would minimize the material
Some auctions for US lease areas have also run
next phase of offshore wind comes into sight. installation demand in 2030 (somewhere close Normalized index
delays and supply chain disruptions that will “We need to recognize that offshore wind has to government targets), there will be insufficient
out of steam. While those off the East Coast
otherwise be created by AR5 (and potentially AR4) matured,” says Perkins. “Bidders need to be demand to support it after 2030.46 And the FID
attracted record-breaking prices in February 2022,
delivering next-to-zero megawatts. assessed in terms of delivery risk, their business delays observed now only make things worse.
and the Bureau of Ocean Energy Management
plan, their supply chain contracts and their More certainty is required after 2030 in terms of PPA Index
In theory, future UK auctions could also see a (BOEM) auctions in California attracted a large
balance sheets — everything else. These contracts targets and planning by governments to smooth out
move away from a price-only format toward the crowd (albeit with much lower prices potentially
shouldn’t be won just on price.” deployment to realistic levels and provide the long-
inclusion of non-price factors for seabed leases or reflecting more challenging conditions), the more
term visibility needed to support more investments
for CfDs, as happens already in markets such as recent Gulf of Mexico auctions attracted very
in manufacturing capacity. Even so, without extra
Germany, the Netherlands and France. At some low levels of developer interest. On 29 August Chained by the supply chains support such as tax breaks, debt financing schemes
Key developments
point, it might be in the sector’s collective self- 2023, BOEM announced that there were only two
Given the current market conditions, projects are or specific industrial policies supporting the whole
interest to do this, to deliver true benefit to society participants in the auction, bidding for just one
being delayed in the expectation that construction value chain, it is unlikely that factories and ships will
in terms of jobs, environmental improvements or of the three areas available. RWE was declared
costs will reduce and revert closer to historical be built fast enough.
system integrations. the winner after only two rounds, paying just Analysis
US$5.6m for the Lake Charles, Louisiana, territory levels. Globally, 24GW of offshore wind projects
(approximately US$54 per acre) — way below the that have secured a route to market, and are
prices paid for areas off the Californian coast scheduled online between 2025 and 2027, have
(US$2,490 per acre).42 not yet reached a final investment decision (FID).43 Data and
methodology
How EY teams
80%
can help
proportion of the 15 markets with Contacts

2030 offshore wind targets that are
predicted to miss their goal.

Analysis
More than 500GW of combined offshore wind capacity is targeted by 2050 The US and Europe are likely to see supply bottlenecks
for turbines and components as early as 2025, as the
positive impact of the US Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) is
Key regions with ambitious offshore wind targets felt. Increased ambition in Europe, continued rapid buildout
in China Mainland and large developing markets speeding up Foreword
their deployment are also factors at play.
Germany 30GW 40GW 70GW*
One challenge — until at least 2035 — will be to secure enough
Netherlands 21GW 50GW 70GW of the critical materials and metals essential to turbine
manufacture. These are at high risk of supply disruption. RECAI 62
Taiwan 13GW 55GW
UK 50GW
US 30GW 15GW** Normalized index
France 18GW 40GW
Japan 10GW 30–45GW

PPA Index
Ireland 5GW 37GW
India 30GW
Key developments
Norway 30GW
The challenge — until at least
South Korea ~14GW
2035 — will be to secure
Analysis
Poland*** ~11GW
enough of the critical materials
and metals essential to turbine
Portugal ~10GW
2030 2035 2040 2045 2050
Data and
manufacture. These are at high methodology
risk of supply disruption.
Illustrative only. How EY teams
* Greater than or equal to 70GW. can help
** Floating offshore wind target.
***Poland has set a target of 10.9GW for 2027.
Note: Rest of the world has a combined target of 39GW. The countries include Columbia, Greece, Spain,
Vietnam, and regions of Canada and Australia.
Contacts
Source: EY analysis of data from Global Wind Energy Council.

Analysis
The average price of eight key materials needed to build a wind turbine It’s fair to say that the offshore sector has also pass on economies of scale or value to others in the
become a victim of its own success. It has driven supply chain. Developers think that they are getting
have increased by ~86% since 2020
down costs in a kind of “race to the bottom,” good value because they are getting a turbine that
A major driver of cost escalation is the increase in the price of critical materials required to manufacture aiming to make turbines not just cheaper, but is bigger and better and can beat someone else’s,
wind turbines. Beyond the steel used to build the tower, the most significant materials requirements for also bigger. In July 2023, the world’s largest wind but this is just driving up R&D costs, labor costs and Foreword
a wind turbine are chromium, copper, manganese, molybdenum, nickel, rare earths and zinc. turbine — featuring 123m-long blades and capable vessel costs, and squeezing the turbine supply chain
of producing 16MW — began testing off the coast so there’s no money in it.”
Increase in wind turbine material prices 2020 to 2023* of China’s Fujian province.
These ever-increasing turbines not only need larger
The problem with a race to the bottom is that, and stronger structures to support them, but also RECAI 62
Molybdenum 285% eventually, you reach the bottom, and can’t go any bigger warehouses, ports and ships to store and
further. A common complaint from the offshore transport them. “As soon as 2025 or 2026, I think
Rare earths 126% wind supply chain is that it doesn’t have time to we will see a bottleneck caused by a lack of the ships
Nickel 72%
recoup the costs of R&D before more is demanded we need to take these massive turbines to site,” Normalized index
by developers — all of whom are looking to gain a says Kinga Charpentier, EY Nordics Renewables
Manganese 52% competitive advantage over their neighbors down Co-Lead “There aren’t many vessels in the world
the coast. that can accommodate these colossal structures.
Copper 47% Shipbuilders are reluctant to build vessels that will PPA Index
“Turbine manufacturers are constantly being
become obsolete in five years, when an even bigger
Chromium 43% pushed to produce new, innovative turbines —
turbine comes along.”
bigger turbines,” says Perkins. “That doesn’t just
Steel** 42% mean their return is poor; they are also unable to
Key developments
Zinc 23%
* January 2020 to March 2023 (except steel).

** Steel percentage is the change in steel prices based on the average of US HRC Domestic and China HRC Export Analysis
prices between January 2020 and August 2023.
Source: EY analysis of data from IMF and IEA.
Data and
“
methodology
As soon as 2025 or 2026, I think we will see a bottleneck caused by a lack

How EY teams
of the ships we need to take these massive turbines to site. There aren’t can help
many vessels in the world that can accommodate these colossal structures.
Shipbuilders are reluctant to build vessels that will become obsolete in five
years, when an even bigger turbine comes along. Contacts
Kinga Charpentier
EY Nordics Renewables Co-Lead

Analysis
Offshore wind turbines expanding in size

Offshore wind turbine size has increased exponentially in the last decade. The rotor size has increased by 185% since 2013, and the hub height has almost doubled.
This has increased the electricity generation capacity per turbine, by ~400%. Illustrative only
Foreword
1991 2001 2003 2010 2013 2015 2017 2021 2023 2025*
Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark UK UK Netherlands Netherlands UK

RECAI 62
Normalized index
PPA Index
Vindeby Middelgrunden Nysted Horns Rev 2 Anholt Westermost Rough Burbo Bank Extension Borssele III & IV Hollandse Kust Noord Sofia
Key developments
0.45MW 2.00MW 2.30MW 2.30MW 3.60MW 6.00MW 8.00MW 9.50MW 11.00MW 14.00MW
RD: 35m RD: 76m RD: 82m RD: 93m RD: 120m RD: 154m RD: 164m RD: 164m RD: 200m RD: 222m
H: 35m H: 64m H: 69m H: 68m H: 82m H: 102m H: 113m H: 116m H: 135m H: ~138m
Analysis
* Under construction. H: hub height RD: rotor diameter
Note: The infographics do not include the prototype or demonstration projects, which include Vestas 15MW offshore wind turbine prototype in Denmark (V236-15.0 MW) as well as the
testing of 16MW wind turbine (MingYang Smart Energy MySE 16-260) and unveiling of the 18MW wind turbine (CSSC Haizhuang H260-18MW) by Three Georges Energy in China.
Source: EY Knowledge analysis of data from publicly available media articles. Data and
methodology
Where does the supply chain go from here? need to operate at a high level and be financeable, Some might say such a move would stifle One thing is for certain: The drive toward
Perkins believes “it’s for industry to recognize the so let’s not necessarily go for the cheapest deal innovation, and one industry player we spoke to nationalism and protectionism seen in How EY teams
increase in long-term commercial risk as turbines possible — let’s put constraints around it.’” described such a move as “completely ridiculous.” governments the world over in recent years is not can help
get bigger, and to change. To say, ‘OK, we want Others could argue that it might motivate research helping the supply chain to become more global.
Could governments put a limit on the size of
these things to work and to be cost-effective in into how to make turbines more efficient in ways While intergovernmental collaboration might be
offshore turbines to relieve this supply chain
the long term. Let’s recognize that these turbines that don’t involve scale. too much to expect, a different approach is needed
tension and give manufacturers more confidence?
to make the supply chain work.
Contacts

Analysis
Entering a new chapter Governments need to adapt to support this new,

more volatile phase and ensure a regular flow of
As we move into a new era for offshore wind, it’s new projects to market. They need to be quick to
time to start thinking about value, as well as cost. react to market changes, adjusting subsidy and
Nuclear, fossil fuel or offshore wind are the options budgets so developers can realistically expect a Foreword
when it comes to baseload (or pseudo-baseload) reasonable return on their investments.
power generation. Of these three, offshore wind
Governments should also be seeking ways to
is highly competitive on price, even with the need
simplify and expedite the consenting process,
to create a regulatory and policy environment that
minimizing the time between the award of an RECAI 62
enables offshore wind to be built at a price that
offtake and FID. Generators are exposed to risk
offers a fair return to investors.
during this period (construction cost, interest
Jonathan Cole, CEO of specialist offshore wind rates, inflation, etc.) until their cost base is fixed.
developer Corio Generation, agrees that offshore
Finally, subsidy regimes could incorporate
Normalized index
wind is still a great place for investors to put their
mechanisms that mitigate the risks over
money: “The long-term outlook is very positive;
which developers have little to no control. This
renewable energy has an incredible growth journey
could be adjustments to strike prices through
ahead of it to meet decarbonization goals, and
construction-related indices (as in Ireland) or to PPA Index
offshore wind will play a huge part in that. Over
reflect movements in the risk-free rates (as in
this short-term, five- to six-year future, there
France). Non-price factors, such as environmental
needs to be a huge exercise in protecting those
projects that have got off the ground — that
considerations and job creation, could also help Wind-powered hydrogen
are already agreed and under way. This means
ensure these large projects deliver broader Key developments
benefits to society. Electrification isn’t the only way to net zero: Hydrogen can decarbonize what electrification
price renegotiation with whomever the price cannot — particularly heavy industry and transport. As well as being a clean fuel, it is a
setters are.” In its new chapter, the offshore sector will not only fundamental building block in the chemical industry. Its importance cannot be overstated.
supply cheaper, greener electricity, it will also help
Charpentier agrees and adds: “There is a new “Green hydrogen” is made with sustainable electricity, used to split water molecules into their Analysis
the evolution of the heat industry, green hydrogen
reality now. Price expectations need to be adjusted component atoms via electrolysis (in contrast to gray hydrogen, made from natural gas or
production and the e-mobility economy. This is
for investors to be able to get a reasonable return. methane, or blue hydrogen that uses natural gas with carbon capture and storage).
really what we have been investing in for the
It’s an adjustment that will happen, because people
past 30 years, and now we are at this crucial and It’s an attractive prospect for organizations within the petrochemical industry, which have Data and
will still need to deploy capital, but it may take a
necessary point — the point at which the offshore experience and infrastructure that can be directly converted and adapted for the transport and
couple of years for the market to readjust.”
storage of hydrogen. Output from offshore wind turbines could even be used to directly power
methodology
industry grows up and starts delivering on its
As we move into offshore wind’s new chapter and enormous potential. electrolyzers onshore, near the offshore transmission cable landfall, minimizing the use of a
the sector matures, there may well be casualties, market’s national grid, which would attract extra costs.
but inefficiencies will be driven out, and new How EY teams
Hydrogen electrolyzers can also be attached to turbines, working alongside desalination plants
competition (capability, service, quality and asset to turn seawater directly into hydrogen, which can be piped or shipped to land.
can help
performance) will enter the space that will benefit
the consumer.
Contacts

Data and methodology
RECAI 62 scores
Technology-specific scores
Ranking Market Previous Movement vs. Score Onshore Offshore Solar PV Solar CSP Biomass Geothermal Hydro Marine
Foreword
ranking previous wind wind
1 US 1 73.9 58.4 59.5 58.3 46.8 40.8 47.4 39.6 20.7

RECAI 62
2 Germany 2 71.4 53.4 52.3 56.1 32.4 50.7 38.1 41.4 20.9
3 China Mainland 3 71.4 52.5 55.7 61.5 55.0 49.3 24.8 51.0 17.9
4 France 5 70.6 56.2 52.3 54.8 23.9 46.9 39.8 42.1 38.5 Normalized index
5 Australia 7 70.2 53.5 42.4 57.2 47.2 41.8 15.8 27.1 25.7
6 India 6 69.2 53.7 28.7 62.7 34.3 43.6 24.8 48.9 20.0
PPA Index
7 UK 4 68.3 57.6 57.6 48.0 15.1 54.8 36.8 39.3 34.8
8 Spain 8 67.1 54.0 35.6 54.0 29.2 40.0 15.4 23.2 23.0
9 Denmark 11 66.3 54.1 51.5 47.0 17.4 45.4 16.4 22.3 22.1 Key developments
10 Netherlands 9 66.1 53.5 48.3 48.8 16.0 51.7 24.8 27.7 16.8
11 Canada 12 65.1 55.8 39.5 48.2 19.9 36.4 26.3 47.9 26.9
Analysis
12 Ireland 13 63.4 49.6 47.3 46.4 19.7 36.2 17.9 21.9 24.7
13 Japan 10 63.3 48.4 50.7 49.1 18.5 56.6 44.3 37.3 22.6
Data and
14 Italy 15 63.2 47.2 40.9 51.1 31.1 42.1 32.3 45.7 18.4
methodology
15 Poland 17 62.4 49.1 41.1 49.2 14.0 46.3 20.1 36.4 14.7
16 Chile 14 61.9 51.5 22.4 48.0 55.3 42.7 47.0 45.1 28.0 How EY teams
17 Sweden 20 61.4 49.0 42.6 42.6 16.3 44.3 18.8 36.6 27.8 can help
18 Greece 16 61.1 49.0 30.9 47.9 36.0 43.6 25.5 39.0 15.1
19 Brazil 18 60.8 50.0 31.9 52.5 24.8 49.4 12.9 45.0 18.5 Contacts
20 Finland 21 60.0 60.1 30.2 37.0 15.7 45.3 15.7 23.1 15.7

RECAI 62 scores
Technology-specific scores
Ranking Market Previous Movement vs. Score Onshore Offshore Solar PV Solar CSP Biomass Geothermal Hydro Marine
Foreword
ranking previous wind wind
21 Belgium 24 59.9 51.2 39.5 42.0 18.5 41.5 22.8 25.7 18.1
RECAI 62
22 Portugal 22 59.7 43.6 24.0 49.3 25.3 40.5 23.2 36.9 23.9
23 Israel 19 59.7 41.8 15.3 54.1 36.4 28.7 14.7 17.7 15.0
24 Taiwan 26 59.1 42.0 47.2 45.9 19.0 29.9 27.2 33.8 29.2 Normalized index
25 Morocco 23 58.8 45.1 17.4 51.1 50.7 25.2 13.9 34.0 13.9
26 Norway 31 58.2 46.1 43.2 39.9 15.8 33.8 18.2 46.7 33.6
PPA Index
27 South Korea 25 57.3 38.3 40.8 48.1 18.2 48.5 16.7 29.3 32.4
28 Austria 29 57.3 46.0 22.5 43.5 14.4 42.5 17.8 42.5 21.5
29 Argentina 30 56.9 50.4 22.1 49.0 31.6 36.7 18.1 35.5 17.7 Key developments
30 Turkey 27 56.7 48.9 20.6 48.4 23.8 41.6 42.5 45.4 19.6
31 Egypt 28 56.5 47.2 15.8 53.8 36.6 24.6 11.5 23.0 11.5
Analysis
32 Philippines 33 56.1 42.6 20.5 47.4 19.9 40.2 44.0 41.7 21.2
33 Vietnam 36 56.0 45.4 42.0 44.3 17.6 39.3 13.1 46.6 18.7
Data and
34 Switzerland 34 55.9 41.3 17.8 44.2 18.5 36.2 25.3 39.0 15.5
methodology
35 Mexico 35 55.5 42.1 21.3 48.0 24.5 34.9 40.2 35.1 19.1
36 Kazakhstan 32 55.4 49.8 16.2 43.2 18.1 35.0 16.3 41.4 13.8 How EY teams
37 South Africa 37 54.3 46.9 20.0 44.7 47.4 31.6 12.5 19.8 20.7 can help
38 Thailand 38 54.2 42.7 16.2 44.2 21.6 41.8 16.6 31.7 18.6
39 Romania 44 53.9 41.4 17.2 43.6 13.7 34.6 16.3 34.5 13.7 Contacts
40 Saudi Arabia 39 53.7 45.1 17.9 46.5 28.1 23.6 15.8 12.1 11.8

RECAI 62 methodology Foreword

The index rankings reflect our assessment of the factors driving
market attractiveness in a world where renewable energy has gone
beyond decarbonization and reliance on subsidies. RECAI 62
We have defined the questions being asked, based on what Determining the rankings
we see as global market trends affecting investment and
deployment priorities, and the challenges and success factors Each parameter within the five pillars comprises a series
of data sets that are converted into a score, from one to
Normalized index
impacting EY clients:
five, and weighted to generate parameter scores. These
• I● s there a long-term need for additional or replacement are weighted again to produce pillar scores, then an overall
energy supply? If so, is there a strong case for energy from RECAI score and ranking. Weightings are based on the EY
renewable resources in particular? assessment of the relative importance of each data set, PPA Index
• Is
● the market actively seeking to reduce reliance on fossil parameter and pillar in driving investment and deployment
fuels? decisions. Each technology is also allocated a weighting based
on its share of historical and projected investment levels.
• Is
● policy hindering or helping the ability to exploit
renewables opportunities? Separate from the main index, EY technology-specific Key developments
• Are
● essential components in place to ensure project indices rankings reflect a weighted average score across
delivery, such as long-term contracts, grid infrastructure the technology-specific parameters, and a combined score
(including storage) and availability of finance? covering our other macro and energy market parameters.
• What
● does the strength of natural resource, track record
This is because some markets may be highly attractive for Analysis
specific technologies but face other major barriers to entry.
and project pipeline reveal about the outlook for particular
renewable technologies? Data sets are based on publicly available or purchased data,
• Even
● if all other elements are in place, does the macro
EY analysis or adjustments to third-party data. We are unable Data and
to publicly disclose the underlying data sets or weightings
stability and investment climate enable or impede the ease methodology
used to produce the indices.
of doing business?
These index pillars therefore put emphasis on fundamentals If you would like to discuss how EY RECAI analysis could help
such as energy imperative, policy stability, project delivery your business decisions or transactions, please contact the How EY teams
RECAI advisor Phil Dominy.
(including capital availability) and diversity of natural can help
resource — factors that will increasingly become key market
differentiators as markets move toward grid parity, and
“artificial” motivations, such as government targets or the
ring-fencing of technologies, become less critical. Contacts

Normalized index methodology Foreword

With the largest global markets tending to top the core RECAI, there are many smaller markets where
renewable energy is growing rapidly and becoming highly attractive. By dividing a market’s RECAI
score by logarithm of the average of the three preceding years’ GDP to produce a “normalized score,” the RECAI 62
index identifies those smaller renewable energy markets that perform best on the core RECAI pillars of
energy mix, government support, project delivery and natural resource. Removing a market’s economic
size showcases those that are efficient in terms of their size and the most attractive for investors. The
Normalized index
normalized index also highlights larger markets that score well in the core RECAI but could be doing
more to support the green transition.
See the normalized index ranking on page 5.
PPA Index
Key developments
Analysis
Data and
methodology
How EY teams
can help
Contacts

PPA Index scores

Ranking Market Previous Movement vs. Normalized PPA Index PPA market PPA future PPA policy RECAI Foreword
ranking previous score (0–100) score maturity market score score score
1 Germany 1 100.0 25,458,114.4 74.4 88.2 54.3 71.4

2 Spain 2 99.0 25,200,665.6 82.5 89.1 51.1 67.1
RECAI 62
3 US 3 90.8 23,107,989.4 100.0 55.1 56.7 73.9
4 UK 4 82.3 20,946,282.6 73.4 82.2 50.8 68.3
5 France 5 78.8 20,067,288.7 64.8 82.0 53.5 70.6
6 Australia 6 66.4 16,908,887.9 76.2 54.2 58.4 70.2 Normalized index
7 Denmark 8 63.6 16,183,026.8 58.1 82.3 51.1 66.3
8 Netherlands 9 61.7 15,705,718.6 61.4 76.0 50.9 66.1
9 Sweden 11 58.4 14,871,986.5 63.2 78.6 48.8 61.4 PPA Index
10 Poland 10 56.6 14,412,940.2 64.1 64.7 55.7 62.4
11 Finland 12 56.2 14,299,173.4 64.3 70.1 52.9 60.0
12 Italy 13 56.1 14,272,693.3 54.0 82.9 50.4 63.2
13 India 7 48.7 12,408,130.7 63.2 41.8 68.0 69.2
Key developments
14 Norway 15 42.5 10,810,453.7 57.6 65.0 49.6 58.2
15 Brazil 14 34.5 8,789,615.4 62.5 54.3 42.5 60.8
16 Canada 28.2 7,181,813.4 43.1 50.2 51.0 65.1 Analysis
17 Ireland 19 26.2 6,657,809.5 51.0 35.7 57.5 63.4
18 Chile 17 21.5 5,484,434.4 43.5 38.5 52.9 61.9
19 Egypt 22 21.2 5,386,356.5 45.2 38.8 54.4 56.5 Data and
20 Belgium 23 20.5 5,225,614.0 55.0 31.9 49.8 59.9
methodology
21 Morocco 24 19.8 5,052,994.9 39.3 37.1 58.9 58.8
22 Colombia 21 18.9 4,817,710.6 50.5 39.4 49.6 48.8
How EY teams
23 South Africa 20 16.7 4,260,528.5 40.8 36.2 53.2 54.3 can help
24 Portugal 18 16.5 4,205,165.4 20.9 65.8 51.3 59.7
25 Japan 16 16.4 4,167,144.7 26.3 47.5 52.7 63.3
26 Greece 26 15.3 3,894,946.4 35.9 35.5 49.9 61.1 Contacts
27 Romania 28 14.5 3,688,908.0 35.8 36.0 53.0 53.9
28 Thailand 25 12.8 3,270,352.6 40.3 24.3 61.6 54.2
29 Ethiopia 27 12.4 3,155,146.3 36.1 34.6 58.6 43.1
30 Bulgaria 11.2 2,843,785.6 33.9 31.1 55.7 48.4

PPA market maturity

(Sources: Pexapark, DLA Piper and EY analysis)
PPA Index methodology 1. Number of PPAs signed in the past five years
2. Total PPA volume in the past five years Foreword
By analyzing the same 100 markets as in the full RECAI database, the goal is to create a 3. Number of PPAs signed in the past year
4. Total PPA volume in the past year
new ranking that focuses on the attractiveness of renewable power procurement — via
offsite corporate PPAs — rather than the attractiveness of renewable project investment. RECAI 62
PPA future market
(Sources: Wood Mackenzie, GlobalData, IRENA, IEA, Pexapark
and EY analysis)
The final score for the top 30 markets is calculated from a The PPA Index uses a multiplicative formula to prioritize well-
1. Pipeline of projects:
weighted combination of 12 key parameters, which act as a rounded markets with strengths in all aspects of corporate Normalized index
proxy for corporate PPA potential. The PPA Index focuses on PPA development and integration. For example, this will a. Forecast power capacity
four pillars (three PPA-specific pillars together with a RECAI mean that markets with zero PPA deals to date will score zero b. Forecast installation growth
score pillar): overall and will not yet be included. c. Project pipeline
• PPA market maturity — this focuses on activities carried However, with strong weighting on forward-looking 2. Wholesale power pricing: PPA Index
out within each market in the past decade. It concentrates parameters, even markets with just a few deals to date could a. Wholesale power price relative to the historic LCOE
on market maturity, looking at past PPA deal frequency and score highly if significant growth is expected in the corporate
volume, as well as a quantitative analysis of more recent PPA market within the next five years — the horizon of RECAI. b. Wholesale power price relative to the PPA price
PPA deal growth. The RECAI PPA Index score (which can be very large) has Key developments
• PPA future market — this forward-looking score assesses been normalized into a score from 0 to 100, to create a more PPA policy score
the forecast activity of each market. Forecast power manageable reference value. The leading market will score (Sources: World Bank, GlobalData, IEA and EY analysis)
capacity is a key driver of the magnitude of a market, so 100 — but this does not mean that the market is perfect for
1. Ease of doing business index (World Bank)
this has a significant weighting on the score as well as corporate PPAs. It means that, relatively speaking, it is the
the wholesale power price relative to the levelized cost most attractive market for corporate PPAs across the coming
2. Renewable energy imperative: Analysis
of energy (LCOE) or PPA price in each market. Forecast five years. • Renewable energy percentage of total generation
capacity installations and a weighted project pipeline score • Percentage of population with access to electricity
Data sets are based on publicly available or purchased data,
from RECAI are used. The Index has focused on wind and EY analysis or adjustments to third-party data. We are unable • Forecast energy consumption growth Data and
solar PPAs (together weighted at 93%) as these represent
the vast majority of offsite corporate PPAs.
to publicly disclose the exact data sets or weightings used to • CO2 emissions methodology
produce the indices.
• PPA policy score — this focuses on the ease of operation in
a given market. If a market is to have potential for corporate
For more information on the services that EY teams provide RECAI score
PPA growth, supporting government policy must be in place
to corporates around renewable energy strategies and PPAs,
(Source: EY analysis) How EY teams
please refer to our website: www.ey.com/uk/ppa.
for efficient and large-scale expansion. This is considered 1. Macro fundamentals can help
in the core RECAI, but is also examined here, with a more 2. Energy imperative
nuanced focus on PPA supportive policy. 3. Policy
• RECAI score — the overall score yielded by RECAI is also 4. Project delivery Contacts
factored in as one of the fundamental pillars, because it 5. Technology
provides a strong overview of the existing and potential
strength of a market’s renewable energy landscape.
Special thanks to Pexapark for providing access to their data.

25
How EY teams can help
What EY teams can do for you Foreword

A global renewables industry is maturing quickly, shaped by new technologies, new business
models and new ecosystems. Opportunities are growing, but so is complexity, which creates
uncertainty, risk and delay. RECAI 62
The number of organizations generating renewable energy At EY, we’re using the combined experience of the EY
is growing all the time. And so is the number of investors global network to help you accelerate your transition to
ready to finance new energy projects and innovation. the world of renewable energy. We’re supporting you
For organizations intent on playing a leading role in to find better answers, take decisive action and move Normalized index
renewables, the ability to move quickly and decisively will forward faster. We do that by sharing our deep experience
become more valuable, but also more difficult. in renewables across the globe and providing all the
capabilities you need in one integrated EY team — from
How do you find the right strategy to lead your organization
defining the right long-term strategy, to helping deliver PPA Index
through the transition to renewables? What’s the
and operate power generation assets, to managing tax
actionable plan that executes that strategy while making
incentives and financing structures.
best use of all the tax breaks, incentives and finance
structures available? Which new technologies should you We’re committed to changing the way we do business,
back, and to what extent? How do you take what works in and we’re playing a leading role in efforts to help others Key developments
one market and scale it globally? What can you learn from change. With EY Global Renewables, you’ll be ready to lead
what’s working elsewhere? your organization through the transition to renewables
— and play your role in building the decarbonized,
Leaders need decisive answers that point to clear actions,
sustainable economy that creates measurable long-term Analysis
and rapid access to the capabilities that will help them take
value for everyone.
those actions.
ey.com/recai
Data and
methodology
How EY teams
can help
Contacts

Contacts
Foreword
Arnaud de Giovanni Ben Warren

EY Global Renewables Leader RECAI Chief Editor RECAI 62
arnaud.de.giovanni@fr.ey.com Partner, Renewables Corporate
Finance, Ernst & Young LLP
bwarren@uk.ey.com
Normalized index
Authors Contributors
PPA Index
Key developments
Erico Lima Andrew Horstead Andrew Perkins Anthony Tricot Kinga Charpentier
EY Global Offshore EY Global Power & Utilities Partner, Corporate Finance EY UK&I Head of Generation and Power EY Nordics
Wind Leader Lead Analyst Ernst & Young LLP Markets, Economic Consulting Renewables Co-Lead Analysis
erico.lima@uk.ey.com ahorstead@uk.ey.com aperkins@uk.ey.com atricot@uk.ey.com kinga.charpentier@fi.ey.com
Data and
methodology
Advisor, research and modeling team
How EY teams
can help
Contacts
Phil Dominy Nathan Docker Malika Cornwall

Senior RECAI Advisor Head of Research Head of Modelling
Ernst & Young LLP EY UK&I Energy and Infrastructure Corporate EY UK&I Energy and Infrastructure Corporate
pdominy@uk.ey.com Finance Senior Executive, Ernst & Young LLP Finance Executive, Ernst & Young LLP
nathan.docker@uk.ey.com malika.cornwall@uk.ey.com
Citations
References
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Why The Global Stocktake Is A Critical Moment For Climate Action,” United Nations Climate Change website, unfccc.int/topics/ 25
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25 October 2023. 26
“Poland: Admittance Of Modifications Of 10H Rule For Wind Farm Locations – Important Changes For The Investors,”
Foreword
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Ferris, Nick, “Data insight: the cost of a wind turbine has increased by 38% in two years,” Energy Monitor, 25 April 2023, Dentons website, www.dentons.com/en/insights/alerts/2023/march/20/admittance-of-modifications-of-10h-rule-for-wind-
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5
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6
Ibid.
29
“Egypt Accelerates Energy Transition With Revised Climate Commitments,” Arab News, 27 June 2023, www.arabnews.com/
node/2328956/business-economy.
7
Shetty, Sangita, “US Solar Industry Set To Shine: Anticipating Historic 30+ GW Installations In 2023,” SolarQuarter, 9 September
2023, solarquarter.com/2023/09/09/us-solar-industry-set-to-shine-anticipating-historic-30-gw-installations-in-2023.
30
“Egypt Sees $2.6bln Renewable Energy Investments in 2023-2023,” Zawya, 12 September 2023, www.zawya.com/en/
8
Mukherjee, Anushree and Verma, Harshit “US Solar Power Capacity To Expand By Record 32 Gigawatts In 2023, Report Says,”
projects/utilities/egypt-sees-26bln-renewable-energy-investment-in-2023-2024-lnegr00m. Normalized index
Reuters, 7 September 2023, www.reuters.com/business/energy/us-solar-power-capacity-expand-by-record-32-gigawatts-2023-
31
Shaw, Alfie, “UK Turns To Egypt For Renewable Energy Imports,” Offshore Technology, 25 September 2023,
report-2023-09-07. www.offshore-technology.com/news/uk-to-import-clean-energy-from-europe.
9
Shetty, Sangita, “US Solar Industry Set To Shine: Anticipating Historic 30+ GW Installations In 2023,” SolarQuarter, 9 September
32
Skujins, Angela, “New Reforms, Liberalised Energy Market Help Untap Philippines’ Solar Potential,” PV Magazine,
2023, solarquarter.com/2023/09/09/us-solar-industry-set-to-shine-anticipating-historic-30-gw-installations-in-2023. 12 October 2023, www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/10/12/new-reforms-liberalised-energy-market-help-untap-
10
Adomaitis, Nerijus, Groom, Nichola and DiSavino, Scott, “US Offshore Wind Projects Facing Inflation Headwinds,” 33
philippines-solar-potential.
Skujins, Angela, “Philippines’ First Canal-top Solar Irrigation Projects Go Online,” PV Magazine, 6 October 2023,
PPA Index
Reuters, 11 September 2023, www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-offshore-wind-projects-facing-inflation-
headwinds-2023-09-11. www.pv-magazine.com/2023/10/06/philippines-first-canal-top-solar-irrigation-projects-go-online.
11
Jones, Florence, “China To ‘Shatter’ Renewable Installation Targets by 2030,” PowerTechnology, 29 June 2023,
34
Kahana, Lior, “Philippines To Build New 100MW Floating Solar Power Farm,” PV Magazine, 11 September 2023,
www.power-technology.com/news/china-shatter-renewable-installation-target. www.pv-magazine.com/2023/09/11/philippines-to-build-new-100-mw-floating-solar-power-farm.
Skujins, Angela, “New Reforms, Liberalised Energy Market Help Untap Philippines’ Solar Potential,” PV Magazine,
Key developments
35
12
“China’s Half-Year Renewable Power Installations Hit Record High,” Fitch Ratings website, www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-
finance/chinas-half-year-renewable-power-installations-hit-record-high-15-08-2023, accessed 23 October 2023. 12 October 2023, www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/10/12/new-reforms-liberalised-energy-market-help-untap-
philippines-solar-potential.
13
Woo, Ryan, “China’s Power Sector Investments May Top $13.7 Trillion By 2060,” Reuters, 2 October 2023, www.reuters.com/
business/energy/chinas-power-sector-investments-may-top-137-trillion-by-2060-2023-10-02.
36
Takla, Reina and El-Shaeri, Nour, “Saudi Arabia Advances With Clean Energy Projects, Aiming For 50% Renewables By 2030,”
Arab News, 8 October 2023, www.arabnews.com/node/2387486/business-economy.
14
https://www.inframationnews.com/news/14551013/china-allows-green-power-certificate-trades.thtml. 37
Cucuk, Aida, “India And Saudi Arabia Ally On Clean Energy,” Offshore Energy, 9 October 2023, www.offshore-energy.biz/
15
Corbet, Sylvie, “French President Macron Unveils Latest Plan For Meeting Climate-related Commitments In The Coming Years,”
PBS, 25 September 2023, www.pbs.org/newshour/world/french-president-macron-unveils-latest-plan-for-meeting-climate-related-
india-and-saudi-arabia-ally-on-clean-hydrogen. Analysis
commitments-in-the-coming-years.
38
Castelier, Sebastian, “Saudi Arabia In Race Against Time To Achieve 2030, Green Electricity Goal,” Al-Monitor, 12 September
2023, www.al-monitor.com/originals/2023/08/saudi-arabia-race-against-time-achieve-2030-green-electricity-goal.
16
Messad, Paul, “France Readies To Integrate EU Climate Targets Into Its Energy Strategy,” Euractiv, 15 September 2023, www.
euractiv.com/section/energy/news/france-readies-integration-of-eu-targets-into-its-energy-strategy
39
Earnings Release Q3 FY 2023: Serious ramp-up challenges in the wind business overshadow excellent performance in
17
Peacock, Bella, “‘Australia’s Largest Battery’: Equis’ 2.4GWh Battery In Melbourne Secures Federal Approval,” PV Magazine,
conventional energy business, Siemens Energy, 7 August 2023, www.siemens-energy.com/global/en/home/press-releases/
earnings-release-q3-fy-2023.html#:~:text=Siemens%20Energy%27s%20results%20of%20the,from%20a%20favorable%20
Data and
11 October 2023, www.pv-magazine-australia.com/2023/10/11/australias-largest-battery-equis-2-4-gwh-battery-in-melbourne-
secures-federal-approval.
market%20environment. methodology
40
Cost Inflation Could Add $280bn In Capital Expenditure For Offshore Wind Industry,” OE (Offshore Engineer) website,
18
Reed, Ed, “Australia Takes Aim At Offshore Wind For Cleaner Future,” Energy Voice, 8 September 2023, www.energyvoice.com/ 13 June 2023, www.oedigital.com/news/505772-cost-inflation-could-add-280bn-in-capital-expenditure-for-offshore-wind-
renewables-energy-transition/wind/australasia-wind/527179/australia-offshore-wind-2030-competition. industry.
19
Lee, Andrew, “Zero Offshore Win As UK Renewables Auction Flops In Huge Blow To Green Power Ambitions,” Recharge, 41
Pricing in 2012 terms. This equates to £61/MWh in August 2023. How EY teams
8 September 2023, www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/zero-offshore-wind-as-uk-renewables-auction-flops-in-huge-blow-to-
green-power-ambitions/2-1-1513647?zephr_sso_ott=aeM1jZ.
42
Bachtel, Lauren and Kim, Will, “US BOEM Announces First Offshore Wind Auction In The Gulf of Mexico,” Linklaters, can help
24 July 2023, www.linklaters.com/en/knowledge/publications/alerts-newsletters-and-guides/2023/july/24/us-boem-
20
“Offshore Wind Flops In 3.7GW CfD5,” Renews.biz, 8 September 2023, renews.biz/88012/offshore-wind-flops-in-37gw-cfd5. announces-first-offshore-wind-auction-in-the-gulf-of-mexico.
21
Lee, Andrew “Zero Offshore Win As UK Renewables Auction Flops In Huge Blow To Green Power Ambitions,” Recharge, 43
Global Offshore Wind Report 2023, Global Wind Energy Council August 2023, 25, gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/
8 September 2023, www.rechargenews.com/energy-transition/zero-offshore-wind-as-uk-renewables-auction-flops-in-huge-blow-to- GWEC-Global-Offshore-Wind-Report-2023.pdf
green-power-ambitions/2-1-1513647?zephr_sso_ott=aeM1jZ. 44
Global Offshore Wind Report 2023, Global Wind Energy Council August 2023, 25, gwec.net/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/ Contacts
22
Ravikumar, Sachin and Smout, Alistair, “Britain Eases Planning Rules For Onshore Wind Projects In England,” Reuters, GWEC-Global-Offshore-Wind-Report-2023.pdf
5 September 2023, www.reuters.com/world/uk/uk-govt-speed-up-approval-some-onshore-wind-projects-england-2023-09-05. 45
Hazarika, Gautamee, “Global Offshore Wind Records Second Best Year Ever, Adds 8.8GW In 2022,” Mercom website,
23
Ajdin, Adis, “Green Light For Poland’s $5bn Offshore Wind Project,” Splash 247, 12 October 2023, splash247.com/green-light-for- 6 September 2023, www.mercomindia.com/global-offshore-wind-year-ever-adds-8-8-gw-in-2022.
polands-5bn-offshore-wind-project. 46
US$27 Billion Investment Required To Mobilise Global Offshore Wind Supply Chain,” Wood Mackenzie website,
24
“Poland And Norway Join Forces To Drive Innovation In Offshore Wind,” OE (Offshore Engineer), 12 October 2023, August 17, 2023, www.woodmac.com/press-releases/27-billion-investment-required-to-mobilise-global-offshore-wind-
www.oedigital.com/news/508714-poland-and-norway-join-forces-to-drive-innovation-in-offshore-wind. supply-chain (accessed September 27, 2023).

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Start

Foreword RECAI 62 Normalized index RECAI 62

PPA Index Key developments Analysis PPA Index

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 02

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 04

9 Finland 9 20 29 Philippines 24 32 Analysis

14 Poland 17 15 34 China Mainland 34 3 +3 Portugal How EY teams

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 05

of generation and geopolitical unrest Germany

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 06

Renewables highlights from

Down 3 Up 2 Down 1 Down 3

RECAI ranking RECAI ranking Data and

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 07

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 08

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 09

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 10

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 11

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 12

Where the wind blows

In brief expected to contribute 7GW of clean sustainable energy

proportion of the 15 markets with Contacts

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 15

US 30GW 15GW** Normalized index

France 18GW 40GW

Japan 10GW 30–45GW

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 16

* January 2020 to March 2023 (except steel).

As soon as 2025 or 2026, I think we will see a bottleneck caused by a lack

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 17

Offshore wind turbines expanding in size

Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark Denmark UK UK Netherlands Netherlands UK

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 18

Entering a new chapter Governments need to adapt to support this new,

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 19

1 US 1 73.9 58.4 59.5 58.3 46.8 40.8 47.4 39.6 20.7

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 20

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 21

RECAI 62 methodology Foreword

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 22

Normalized index methodology Foreword

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 23

PPA Index scores

1 Germany 1 100.0 25,458,114.4 74.4 88.2 54.3 71.4

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 24

PPA market maturity

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 06

What EY teams can do for you Foreword

Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 26

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Renewable Energy Country Attractiveness Index 62 28

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