Noble Media Newsletter 4Q 2020-1
Noble Media Newsletter 4Q 2020-1
Noble Media Newsletter 4Q 2020-1
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Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20
S&P 500 Noble Social Media Noble Ad Tech Noble Marketing Tech Noble Digital Media
NOBLE Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA registered broker/dealer. Member - SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation). Refer to the segment analysis part of the Newsletter to see the
components of NOBLE Media Segment Indexes
Marketing Technology 43
Information 13
Software 11
eCommerce 6
Social Media 1
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
4Q 2020 deal values increased by 300% to $74 billion, but much of this reflects the $44 billion acquisition of IHS Market by S&P
Global. Excluding that transaction, deal values still increased by 61%. As shown in the chart below, Information Services was the
sector with the largest deal values, with $47.8 billion in M&A. Two of the three largest deals during the quarter were information
services deals: S&P Global deal to acquire IHS Market, and Advent International’s acquisition of Nielsen Global Connect for $2.7
billion. This marked the second quarter in a row in which deal values were highest in the Information Services sector. The Digital
Content sector had the second highest number of deals by value in 4Q 2020, with $16.8 billion, followed by Marketing Technology
with $4.8 billion in deal value.
eCommerce $1,944
Software $1,784
Social Media
Digital Content M&A Remained Strong, Led by Game Developer and Podcast Deals
In Noble’s previous quarterly Media Newsletter we highlighted the Gaming sector as enjoying a robust M&A environment. Those
trends continued in the fourth quarter, with nearly two dozen gaming related transactions during the quarter, almost twice that of last
year. Roughly 80% of all digital content transactions took place in the Games or Game Studio/Game Developer subsector. The largest
deal was Electronic Art’s $1.2 billion announcement to acquire Codemasters, outbidding Take-Two Interactive’s $903 million offer in
the process.
While the Podcasting sector is far smaller than the Gaming/Entertainment industry, the fast growing sector continues to attract large
buyers. In 4Q 2020, we tracked 9 deals in the podcast sector, led by Amazon’s reported $300 million acquisition of podcast network
Wondery, Spotify’s $235 million acquisition of podcast ad platform Magaphone, and iHeart Media’s reported $50 million acquisition of
Voxnest, a provider of podcast analytics, publisher tools and programmatic ad serving. For the year, we tracked $1.15 billion in
podcast transactions, up from $340 million of transactions in 2019. Some of the most notable podcast deals of 2020 (for which we
have reported purchase prices) are listed below.
12/30/20 $300
11/10/20 $235
10/23/20 $50
7/22/20 $34
7/13/20 $325
5/8/20 $19
2/5/20 $186
Mean 9.9x 8.0x 5.9x 28.8x 76.3x 39.5x 2.3x 65.3% (11.6%) 43.8%
Median 7.6x 6.7x 5.3x 23.2x 44.2x 31.7x 2.3x 18.6% (3.4%) 38.8%
5.0x 40.0x
3.0x
30.0x
1.0x
20.0x
-1.0x
-3.0x 10.0x
-5.0x 0.0x
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
Mean 7.8x 6.7x 5.2x 71.2x 36.5x 26.4x 2.9x 5.4% 5.5% 45.8%
Median 2.1x 1.9x 1.6x 24.1x 13.8x 11.3x 2.9x 0.0% 4.4% 39.7%
2.5% 15%
10%
0.0%
5%
-2.5% 0%
-5.0% -5%
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
1.5x 25.0x
1.0x
20.0x
0.5x
0.0x 15.0x
-0.5x
10.0x
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-1.5x 5.0x
-2.0x 0.0x
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
Mean 14.0x 13.7x 11.2x 45.2x 73.2x 90.8x 0.1x 18.4% (7.1)% 67.2%
Median 11.0x 10.6x 9.0x 32.4x 38.9x 52.9x 0.1x 20.8% (14.0)% 70.8%
4.0x 80.0x
70.0x
2.0x 60.0x
50.0x
0.0x 40.0x
30.0x
-2.0x 20.0x
10.0x
-4.0x 0.0x
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
Mean 13.2x 14.0x 10.8x 53.5x 26.4x 51.5x 3.9x 30.2% 6.8% 61.3%
Median 9.1x 9.7x 7.9x 36.3x 24.9x 25.9x 3.9x 26.6% 8.6% 63.7%
6.0x 20.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x 10.0x
-2.0x
-4.0x
-6.0x 0.0x
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
Most investors are happy to see 2020 in the rearview mirror. The pandemic hit the industry hard, both in terms of fundamentals and stock
prices. In terms of fundamentals, the media industry performed slightly better in the second half than the dire predictions made in the midst
of the pandemic. Revenues rebounded from the disastrous second quarter, fueled by record breaking political advertising. Many companies
raised revenue and cash flow guidance in the third and fourth quarters due to heavy political advertising spend. But, factoring out the huge
influx of political, advertising trends seemed to have improved, nonetheless. We caution investors not to get over their skis on optimism.
Political advertising, especially the level at which it came in, created a substantial amount of noise around core advertising. We caution that
the advertising recovery may not be as robust heading into 2021 without the strong political advertising tailwind. The general economy is still
reeling from store and restaurant closures and other restrictions. While a vaccine offers hope that there will be a return to “normalcy”, we
remain cautious about the issues that will need to be addressed post pandemic.
For instance, there appears to be a large number of potential bank foreclosures and forced evictions. This could disrupt consumer behavior in
the coming months. Furthermore, while everyone is hopeful for a return to 2019 revenue levels, we believe that a large number of businesses
are unlikely to return as quickly, and many may be permanently closed. Finally, there is a looming issue of what the government will do to help
pay for the increased Covid related expenses, which may be in the form of tax hikes. There is a 96% correlation to advertising and
discretionary spending. As such, tax hikes could potentially cut into consumer appetite to spend and, subsequently, advertising. While we
anticipate continued improving revenue trends, we are not as sanguine about the advertising recovery in 2021, which we discuss later in this
report. As such, in terms of the advertising recovery, investors may be asking throughout the year, “Are we there yet?”
On the stock front, investors that were fortunate enough to buy media stocks during the midst of the pandemic, saw very strong returns. In
the fourth quarter, particularly, media stocks increased on average 40%. Even with the strong performance in the second half of the year,
media stocks did not overcome the shortfall from earlier in the year. For the most part, media stocks are down modestly in the single digit
percentages for the year, except for the Radio industry. There, despite the 33.5% increase in stock prices for the fourth quarter, radio stocks
remain down a whopping 37%. As we look forward toward 2021, radio stocks appear to offer the best value and the most upside appreciation
potential, assuming a continued advertising recovery. But this industry is not without risks. Many of the radio companies have heavy debt
burdens, which may be tricky if the advertising recovery does not continue.
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S&P 500 Index Noble TV Noble Publisher Noble Radio
The fundamentals of the television industry substantially improved in the fourth quarter, fueled by an extraordinary and unprecedented influx
of political advertising. Many companies raised Q4 guidance to reflect the strong political advertising. To put the numbers into perspective, for
most broadcasters, political advertising accounted for nearly 30% of total Q4 broadcast revenues. Comparatively, in 2016, political advertising
accounted for roughly 11% of total Q4 broadcast revenue. What makes the numbers so extraordinary is that retransmission revenues in Q4
2016 were roughly 25% of total broadcast revenues and in Q4 2020 represented about 32%. In total, political and retransmission revenue
accounted for roughly 62% of total television broadcast revenue. Cash flow margins, as measured by adjusted EBITDA, is expected to average
in the high 30s percent range. The robust margins are expected to reflect the high margin political advertising and the significant cost
reduction efforts by companies striving to maintain cash flow during the pandemic.
Some investors and analysts appear to be sanguine about the outlook for the TV fundamentals heading into 2021. We are not as optimistic.
Some analysts point to the relatively healthy advertising environment, excluding political. Given the large influx of political, we believe that
there is a lot of noise in those core advertising numbers. We believe that key advertising categories, such as auto, appear to be recovering
nicely, with some broadcasters indicating that it was down a modest 3% to 8% in the fourth quarter. To put this into perspective, auto was
down as much as 75% in the second quarter. But, some large local advertising categories, such as restaurants, travel, and retail will take longer
to return to 2019 levels, in our view. In addition, as we look forward toward first quarter 2021, there will be some tough year-over-year comps
from the large influx of political advertising from the Democratic primaries. Recall the unprecedented amount that Michael Bloomberg spent
on the primaries? In January 2020, it was reported that he spent $300 million, and then $500 million in February.
Consensus revenue estimates for the first quarter anticipate TV industry revenues to decline on average 3.6%, which we believe is optimistic.
In our view, the estimates do not appear to fully reflect the absence of political advertising, nor the lingering local economic impact from the
pandemic. Our revenue estimate anticipates that the average TV company will report revenue declines in the range of 9.2%. The second
quarter should reflect much stronger revenue trends given the easy comparable a year earlier, the midst of the economic shutdowns from the
Covid pandemic. While we anticipate strong second quarter revenue, we do not believe that the recovering core advertising trends will be
enough to offset the absence of political advertising. As such, we anticipate that full year television advertising revenue on average will
decline 7.3%. Noble’s estimate is below that of consensus estimates, which anticipate a modest full year 2021 revenue decline of 1%.
While television fundamentals appear to be still affected by the economic fallout from the Covid pandemic, the deal activity in the industry
has picked up. This follows the surprising offer from E.W. Scripps to buy Ion Media on September 24. Ion Media was on the market prior to the
development of the Covid pandemic early in 2020 but was pulled when economies were closed and Covid mitigation efforts unfolded. Scripps
made a gutsy move to buy Ion in the midst of the pandemic and despite the lack of visibility on the economic and advertising recovery. More
recently, the M&A environment seems to remain healthy given that Quincy Broadcasting and Meredith announced plans to sell TV stations.
Television stocks outperformed the general market in the fourth quarter with the Noble TV index up 39%, significantly outpacing that of the
general market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, up 12%. Unfortunately, the strong year- end performance did not offset the weak
performance earlier in the year. For the year, TV stocks were down 9% versus a 16% gain for the general market. The only stock that
outperformed the group in terms of both fourth quarter and full year performance was Entravision (EVC). EVC’s shares were up a significant
82.9% in the fourth quarter and 6.1% for the full year.
RADIO BROADCASTING
Substantial Sequential Improvement in Ad Trends
Based on consensus estimates, fourth quarter revenues are expected to show substantial sequential quarterly improvement from the third
quarter, with 4Q 2020 down roughly 12% versus an average 22% decline in 3Q 2020. The improvement is expected to reflect a sizable boost
from political advertising, although television gets the lion share of political dollars. Broadcasters that have digital, podcasting, and diversified
operations, likely will perform better than the industry averages. Digital, which for many radio broadcasters includes podcasting, appears to be
growing revenues in the double digits. Overall, the industry revenue decline for 2020 is likely to be among the weakest in the media space,
though stock prices likely reflect this reality already.
Looking forward toward 2021, radio may have one of the best revenue recoveries in the media space, largely due to the fact that the industry
does not have as difficult of political comps as others. Even though political was at record levels for radio in 2020, it still accounted for only 4%
of total 2020 industry revenues. While this is up from roughly 3% in the past, it is not too large to overcome given the prospects of a rebound
in advertising. To put this into perspective, political advertising for television accounted for as much as 30% of total revenues. Nevertheless,
consensus revenue estimates for 2021 may be a little high. The average consensus revenue growth is expected to be 13.5%, a revenue growth
estimate that does not anticipate that the industry revenue in 2021 achieves that of 2019. Noble research’s 2021 radio revenue estimate is
7.3%. Either way, radio revenue trends appear favorable. However, revenue will be lumpy. The strongest revenue growth quarter will be the
second quarter, which will be up against the easy comps from the year earlier depth of the pandemic. Q2 2020 revenues were down in the
range of 55% to 65%.
The improving revenue and, subsequently, cash flow trends will be a welcome relief to many radio companies with stretched balance sheets.
2021 cash flow is expected to have strong double-digit growth, in excess of 20%. As Figure #3 illustrates, the average debt to trailing cash flow
for the industry is an historically high 11.1 times. Many companies managed through the pandemic either with government loans or
concessions on debt covenants. Yet, there were some radio companies that were able to manage without tripping covenants. We believe that
most companies will be able to quickly pare down debt, and debt to cash flow levels will drop to an average of 6 times by the end of 2022.
The industry has managed with the relatively high 6 times handle before.
Radio stocks had a strong rebound in the fourth quarter, up 34%, as measured by the Noble Radio Index. But this strong performance was
below that of many media sectors including TV, up 39%, and Publishing, up 42%. Nonetheless, some of the strongest performers in the
industry in the fourth quarter were the larger radio groups including Cumulus Media, up 63%; iHeart Media, up 58%; and, Entercom, up 52%.
Townsquare Media increased a strong 43%. These companies outperformed the Radio Index and many companies across the media spectrum.
The remaining publicly traded stocks traded below the Noble Radio Index. The average radio stock is trading at roughly 9 times enterprise
value to depressed 2021 cash flow estimates. While the multiple may appear high based on most recent trading multiples over the past five
years (excluding 2020), the valuations appear to be compelling considering the strong, double digit cash flow growth that is expected in an
advertising recovery.
The fundamentals of the Publishing industry vary by company and depends on which side of the digital divide the company is on. Some
companies, like The New York Times (NYT), have transitioned well toward a digital driven model. Nonetheless, the publishing industry's
transition toward digital accelerated during the pandemic. Unique visitors and digital subscriptions accelerated as travel restricted consumers
sought news and information on Covid and the Presidential elections. Despite the double-digit revenue growth for digital advertising and
subscriptions for some publishers, total revenues are expected to decline in the range of 20%. National publishers, however, may see modest
single digit declines in revenues.
Importantly, many in the industry are reengineering cost structures. While the pandemic caught many media companies flatfooted without
cost mitigation strategies to maintain cash flow, many publishing companies simply accelerated cost reduction plans already in place. The
pandemic allowed many companies to reduce the office footprint or renegotiate office leases at much lower rates. As a result, many
publishers have actually exceeded cash flow expectations. Tribune Publishing is a good example of this. The company recently raised fourth
quarter and full year 2021 cash flow guidance. As we look toward 2021, we anticipate that revenue declines will significantly moderate,
especially since many publishers are near 50% digital revenues. Cash flow for the industry should improve as cost mitigation efforts flow
through to a full year of operations.
Investors are focused on the recent offer by the Alden Group for the remaining 68% of the shares of Tribune Publishing that it does not own.
The $14.25 per share offer follows the company's closing on the sale of BestReviews, which bolstered the company's already strong cash
position. Tribune is expected to end 2020 with as much as $220 million in cash and virtually no debt. We wonder how serious the Alden
Group is about acquiring Tribune. Noble research believes that it is likely that independent board members will reject the low-ball offer. The
question will be whether the Alden Group will increase its offer to levels that reflect the intrinsic value of the company.
Publishing stocks increased a strong 42% in the fourth quarter, boosted by a 145% increase in the stock price of Gannett. GCI shares began the
upward trend following the company's 10Q filing on November 2, as investors concerns over the company's high debt leverage were
assuaged. In addition, the company significantly reduced headcount through a large employee buyout in November.
Mean 2.2x 2.1x 2.0x 8.6x 7.3x 8.7x 4.2x 19.4% 26.2% 2.1%
Median 2.1x 2.1x 2.0x 8.6x 7.4x 8.8x 4.3x 17.5% 27.0% 2.0%
8.0x 12.0x
10.0x
6.0x
8.0x
4.0x 6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
2.0x
0.0x 0.0x
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
Mean 2.0x 1.8x 1.6x 13.0x 13.5x 9.2x 11.1x 5.8% 11.8% NM
Median 1.7x 1.7x 1.5x 11.8x 13.7x 9.1x 8.2x 0.0% 10.3% NM
Mean 1.4x 1.8x 1.7x 13.9x 14.1x 11.5x 2.7x 2.0% 9.4% 3.7%
Median 0.9x 1.1x 1.2x 7.7x 10.0x 8.6x 2.5x 3.2% 10.2% 1.1%
0% -25%
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
14.0x
8.0x
12.0x
6.0x 10.0x
8.0x
4.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
2.0x
0.0x 0.0x
Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 15 16 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20
Valuation – NOBLE’s professionals have significant experience in the valuation of privately owned and public businesses across a wide range of
industries. We perform an extensive analysis of the business as well as evaluate industry trends and various other factors in order to inform
our clients as to the likely range of value they can expect. Our services are characterized by intellectual and analytical rigor and our conclusions
are backed by thorough documentation.
Chief Accounting Officers, Corporate Controllers, CFOs, and Corporate Boards rely on Noble’s experienced valuation professionals to produce
sophisticated, supportable, and timely valuations to assist in complying with financial reporting requirements, including:
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the transaction process to offer objective advice based on rigorous analysis. We work on behalf of boards of directors, investors, trustees and
other corporate leaders to advise and provide opinions on a wide range of transactions.
We have advised Corporate Boards, special transaction committees, independent trustees, management and other fiduciaries of middle
market public and private companies on the financial aspects of a transaction. Our independent advice withstands scrutiny from shareholders,
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Our Principal Investment focus is primarily on private and small-cap public ($10mill to $50mill market caps) companies in industries within
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procure success.
Michael Kupinski,
Director of Research
mkupinski@noblecapitalmarkets.com - 561.994.5734
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