NOBLE Media Newsletter 1Q 2022
NOBLE Media Newsletter 1Q 2022
NOBLE Media Newsletter 1Q 2022
NOBLE Capital Markets, Inc. is a FINRA registered broker/dealer. Member - SIPC (Securities Investor Protection Corporation). Refer to the segment analysis part of the Newsletter to see the
components of NOBLE Media Segment Indexes
Another sector that showed continued M&A strength was the online gaming, or “iGaming” sector. As more states and countries
allow for betting online, a land rush has ensued, often times with companies buying foreign assets, where online betting has been
around a while, in order to provide the tools to compete in North America, where there remains significant upside opportunity.
Some of the most notable transactions of betting software companies are provided below. We have included the Better Collective
acquisition of Canada Sports Betting, even though Canada Sports Betting isn’t an online gaming company per se. Rather, we have
included it because we have found that iGaming companies are targeting data and information companies which provide
information to bettors, which is key to helping them understand their odds ahead of placing bets.
One of the poor performing sectors in the latest quarter was the Esports & Gaming sectors, down 25% in the quarter versus a 5%
decline for the S&P 500 Index. Given the recent performance, the sector is down 52% for the trailing 12 months. The performance
of the sector is disappointing given that we had expected that it would be a beneficiary of the economy reopening. Our view was
that in person esports events would rebound and that igaming would become a favored way for strapped States to increase
revenue. While this is still our view, we were surprised that the industry became a victim of the flight to quality. Many of the stocks
in the index are developmental companies, investing to gain a foothold in the fast-growing space. As such, many of the companies
in the space are not cash flow positive and have needs to raise capital for investment. Consequently, many of these companies are
selling non-strategic assets, raising expensive capital, and aggressively cutting expenses.
It has not helped that the fundamentals of some of the companies have not been as strong as expected. In the latest quarter, we
have revised downward revenues and adj. EBITDA due to gaming regulations, slower than expected product rollout, and
geopolitical issues. One exception is Codere Online (CDRO), which has significant amount of cash to continue its international
expansion. While the company has been adversely affected by recent gaming regulation in Spain, we believe that there is an
attractive opportunity to expand into many Latin American markets. The company also has longer term plans to enter the US
market.
Mean 3.1x 2.4x 1.9x 44.1x 24.5x 20.3x 4.1x 37.7% (1.3%) 42.3%
Median 2.3x 1.8x 1.5x 29.3x 14.0x 11.4x 2.1x 22.5% 1.6% 42.3%
5% 80%
60%
0%
40%
-5%
20%
-10% 0%
-15% -20%
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
3.0x 40.0x
1.0x 30.0x
-1.0x 20.0x
-3.0x 10.0x
-5.0x 0.0x
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
Mean 4.1x 3.2x 2.6x 73.0x 14.2x 11.5x 3.2x 20.6% 6.4% 52.3%
Median 1.7x 1.3x 1.1x 22.4x 10.9x 8.2x 2.9x 14.9% 8.2% 52.1%
Mean 8.3x 6.5x 5.3x 60.3x 52.3x 64.7x 3.3x 18.2% (6.6)% 71.4%
Median 5.8x 4.9x 4.1x 34.6x 27.5x 28.6x 2.9x 20.0% (9.3)% 73.7%
2.0x 80.0x
60.0x
0.0x
40.0x
-2.0x 20.0x
-4.0x 0.0x
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
Mean 7.1x 5.7x 5.2x 32.4x 23.7x 18.3x 3.4x 24.2% 8.0% 67.4%
Median 7.2x 5.7x 4.7x 33.1x 21.2x 19.6x 3.4x 22.6% 11.8% 71.9%
1.0x 30.0x
0.0x 20.0x
10.0x
-1.0x
0.0x
-2.0x Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
Mean 3.2x 1.8x 1.4x 16.8x 27.4x 22.7x 5.3x 62.8% (45.5)% 49.5%
Median 2.3x 1.5x 1.3x 19.4x 10.3x 7.9x 5.3x 44.1% (18.4)% 48.6%
3.0x
60x
1.0x
40x
-1.0x
20x
-3.0x
-5.0x 0x
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 19 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21
Overview
Is it time to buy?
Consumer cyclical stocks, such as the media and entertainment sectors, tend not to perform well during periods of rising interest
rates. This is a function of the sensitivity of advertising to the general economy. Rising interest rates tend to slow economic
activity and potentially portend an economic downturn. The Fed Reserve indicated that it plans a series of rate hikes in 2022, with
the first being a 0.25 basis point bump on March 16th. . But media investors do not appear focused on the prospect of an
economic downturn. This is largely due to the current favorable advertising environment. Most media companies reported better
than expected advertising in the fourth quarter and guided toward favorable first quarter trends. In addition, media companies
appear optimistic for the second half of the year with the anticipated influx of political advertising.
For this reason, we believe, the traditional media companies outperformed the S&P 500 Index in the latest quarter, with the TV
sector performing the best, (highlighted later in this report). Coincidently, Broadcast Television is one of the biggest beneficiaries
of the influx of political advertising, which will largely fall in the third and fourth quarters. In addition, TV broadcasters have
diversified revenue streams, most notably retransmission revenue, which is not tied to the vagaries of the economy.
Retransmission revenues as a whole account for an average --% of total broadcast revenue. Finally, many broadcasters indicated
that sports betting has become a meaningful contributor to the improved advertising environment. With favorable revenue
visibility, not surprisingly, TV stocks have outperformed the traditional media stocks, including Broadcast Radio and Publishing.
No doubt that there has been a rotation in the market, with investors moving toward larger, established companies, with more
predictable revenue and cash flow, favoring those with solid balance sheets. Developmental companies and industries that are in
investment mode have struggled in this environment, like the Esports & iGaming industries. Many of these companies have
investment spending desires, but may be locked out as access to the capital markets have become limited. As a result, many
developmental companies significantly cut back costs in a survival mode reaction.
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
-10%
-20%
-30%
Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22
Is the pain nearly over? We do not think so. In our view, while the inverted yield curve may have investors and analysts likely to
begin modeling the prospect of an economic downturn in the future, we believe that the portfolio repositioning has just begun.
Our key takeaway is that investors should be looking for opportunities. The best time to buy media stocks has typically been during
an economic downturn or when the markets already factor one in. A process that seems to have begun. As such, we encourage
investors to go hunting. We continue to favor companies that are in growth industries, have solid balance sheets, and stock
valuations that may already reflect recession type valuations.
Broadcast Television
Broadcast Television: Returning Capital To Shareholders
The Noble Broadcast TV index increased 15% in the first quarter as investors anticipate a strong fundamental year in 2022 with the
influx of political advertising and a strong economy. Some broadcasters indicated that political advertising in 2022 could be more
than what was spent in the past Presidential election year. We are not as sanguine about that opportunity but believe that political
advertising should increase a solid 30%, which is in line with the historic 20-year growth rates over Presidential year and biennial
election year cycles. While the key auto category is still not fully recovered, broadcast management indicated that the category
should cycle toward growth in 2023, a function of supply chain issues abating and a significant number of new models being
introduced. Notably, most companies appeared very optimistic about sports betting advertising, which has emerged to become a
leading category. Several large States appear to be poised to approve online sports betting, like Florida and California, which
should meaningfully bolster core advertising.
In addition, we believe the reason that the stocks outperformed in the quarter, investors have come to realize that advertising is a
smaller portion of total broadcast revenue. For the year 2021, retransmission revenue, a stable a predictable source of revenue,
now accounts for a significant 44% of average broadcast revenue. Finally, the broadcast industry has substantially improved
balance sheets. Industry wide, net debt is on average 3.6 times EBITDA, with the mean at a modest 2.7 times. While there are
companies higher than the averages, many of those companies have a path toward lowered leverage in 2022 given the anticipate
influx of high margin political advertising.
With the favorable fundamental tailwind and reasonable debt levels, many companies are returning capital to shareholders in the
form of dividends and share repurchase programs. Entravision announced a $20 million share repurchase program and Nexstar
increased its quarterly cash dividend by 29%. We believe that more companies are likely to announce similar moves as debt
leverage comes down.
Notably, with the favorable Q1 stock performance up 15%, the Noble Broadcast TV index over the trailing 12 months increased a
modest 1%. This modest gain was below historic 25-year averages for the stocks in the year prior to an election year. On average,
TV stock gained 22% in the year prior to an election year. We wonder if investors are nervous about the geopolitical events, rising
inflation and rising interest rates. Notably, the stock valuations appear compelling. As the accompanying Broadcast TV Company
Comparable table illustrates, the average TV stock trades at 6.5 times EV to 2022 EBITDA and 7.5 times 2023 EBITDA, at the low
end of historic averages in the range of 6 to 12 times. In our view, the Broadcast TV stocks appear to trade at recessionary type
valuations. As such, we believe that investors should go hunting for bargains in TV.
Broadcast Radio
A Transformed Industry
Broadcast Radio stocks failed to hold onto the previous quarter gains and fell in line with the general market in the first quarter
2022, down slightly over 4%. For the trailing 12 months, Radio stocks were flat versus a 15% gain for the general market, as
measured by the S&P 500 Index. The relatively poor performance of the Radio group, in our view, does not do the group justice.
There has been a favorable transformation happening in the industry, one that is shifting away from traditional Radio and toward
faster growth revenue streams, such as Digital, and, even into the Metaverse. In addition, many companies are aggressively paring
down debt, another aspect we believe is missed by investors. Furthermore, there is a favorable fundamental tailwind, bolstered by
strong revenue growth in developing ad categories including crypto currency and sports betting. There are also improving trends
in the important auto category. In addition, the industry is expected to benefit from the influx of political advertising, largely in the
fourth quarter. Political advertising typically accounts for roughly 3% of total full year Radio revenue.
Many of the Radio broadcasters have invested in growing businesses outside of Radio and into fast growing digital, podcasts,
esports, and gaming. For some of the more aggressive diversified Radio companies, like Salem Media and Townsquare Media,
digital now accounts for 29% and 50% of total company revenues, respectively. Beasley Broadcasting, with digital roughly 13% of
total revenues, is ramping up its digital investments, which is expected to reflect an acceleration in revenue and improved margins.
Companies like iHeart Media have even announced venturing into the Metaverse to bring virtual spaces and enhanced fan
experiences. Importantly, digital revenue streams have been especially resilient during the Covid pandemic and we would expect a
similar experience should the economy weaken.
Companies like Cumulus Media, Salem Media and Beasley Broadcasting, which have had some of the highest debt leverage in the
industry, have shored up balance sheets through asset sales and aggressive debt reduction. In the case of Cumulus, management
highlighted that debt levels are approaching a range that it will likely pursue some form of a return of capital to shareholders. This
prospect seemed to be dismissed by investors, the CMLS shares are down 30% from highs reached in November 2021.
As shown in the accompanying radio comp sheet, Radio stocks trade at compelling multiples below 7 times EV to EBITDA. Notably,
some of these companies have significant digital media operations, and, as such, the stock valuations are all the more compelling.
For instance, as illustrated earlier in the Digital Media section of this report, the Marketing Technology stocks trade an average 4.2
times Enterprise Value to Revenues. Applying this metric to Townsquare's digital businesses would place a stock valuation at $35
per share. That would be just for its digital businesses! We believe that investors have not yet realized the transformation of some
of these companies, or the substantial upside as these companies garner more attractive valuations based on its fast-growing
businesses lines.
Publishing
The Noble Publishing Index was down a modest 3% in the first quarter, slightly outperforming the general market's 5% decline. For
the latest 12 months, the Noble Publishing Index decline 11%, underperforming the general market's 14% advance. The biggest
news in the Publishing sector was that Lee Enterprises successfully thwarted the Alden Group's efforts to gain seats on the
company's board and take control of the company. Notably, near current levels, LEE shares trade slightly above the $24 takeover
offer by the Alden Group. We believe that the recent weakness in the shares, down from recent highs in January of $43, is a
reflection of investors exiting the takeover story.
While deal oriented investors appear to be putting pressure on the LEE shares, we encourage investors to take a look at this
company. The company is aggressively investing into its digital future and is near the transition toward revenue growth. We
believe that the company's favorable revenue and cash flow growth outlook into 2024 is compelling as highlighted in the
accompanying Newspaper Industry Comp sheet.
Mean 2.3x 1.9x 1.9x 10.1x 7.6x 8.7x 5.2x 19.9% 23.3% 2.2%
Median 2.3x 2.0x 2.0x 8.6x 6.7x 8.3x 3.8x 22.2% 23.7% 1.8%
20% 10%
0%
10%
-10%
0% -20%
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
2.0x 4.0x
2.0x
0.0x 0.0x
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
Mean 1.8x 1.5x 1.4x 10.8x 7.3x 7.0x 6.5x (2.2%) 17.7% 2.8%
Median 1.8x 1.4x 1.3x 8.7x 7.7x 7.3x 6.0x (0.6%) 18.4% 2.8%
15% 30%
10% 10%
5% -10%
0% -30%
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 -50%
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
Mean 1.3x 1.4x 1.4x 10.9x 10.2x 9.1x 2.6x 8.0% 11.0% 3.6%
Median 0.8x 1.1x 1.1x 9.2x 7.6x 6.9x 2.5x 5.9% 12.6% 0.9%
5% -10%
-30%
0%
Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 -50%
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4 Q2 Q4
16 17 17 18 18 19 19 20 20 21 21
Valuation – NOBLE’s professionals have significant experience in the valuation of privately owned and public businesses across a wide range of
industries. We perform an extensive analysis of the business as well as evaluate industry trends and various other factors in order to inform
our clients as to the likely range of value they can expect. Our services are characterized by intellectual and analytical rigor and our conclusions
are backed by thorough documentation.
Chief Accounting Officers, Corporate Controllers, CFOs, and Corporate Boards rely on Noble’s experienced valuation professionals to produce
sophisticated, supportable, and timely valuations to assist in complying with financial reporting requirements, including:
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the transaction process to offer objective advice based on rigorous analysis. We work on behalf of boards of directors, investors, trustees and
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market public and private companies on the financial aspects of a transaction. Our independent advice withstands scrutiny from shareholders,
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MERCHANT BANKING
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procure success.
Michael Kupinski,
Director of Research
mkupinski@noblecapitalmarkets.com - 561.994.5734
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