Buku Energi Outlook 2022 Versi Bhs Inggris

ISSN 2527 - 3000
SECRETARIATE GENERAL
THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL
INDONESIA ENERGY
OUTLOOK
2 0 2 2
ISSN 2527 - 3000
INDONESIA ENERGY
OUTLOOK
2 0 2 2
BUREAU OF ENERGY POLICY AND ASSEMBLY FACILITATION

OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL
2022
REMARK BY CHAIRMAN OF
I would like to appreciate the effort taken by the Secretariate General

of the National Energy Council for publishing the book of Indonesia
Energy Outlook 2022. This book does not only give the overview
of the current energy condition, but also shows Indonesia energy
projection in the future as well as the overview of energy condition
per region that would be very beneficial as an input in making the
policy and planning in Indonesia’s energy sector.
The economic growth strongly influences the energy supply-

demand including the restriction on mobility globally due to the
Covid-19 pandemic which is still happening until today. Furthermore, the government’s
policies on the utilization of Solar Power Plant and the acceleration of electric vehicle should
be used as a consideration in evaluating and formulating medium and long-term strategy.
In this opportunity, allow me to convey my gratitude to Members of the National Energy

Council, Secretariate General of the National Energy Council, especially for the Editorial
Board for the hard work. I hope the book of Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 would be
beneficial for all the stakeholders and energy policy makers.
Jakarta, December 2022
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources as

the Chairman of National Energy Council
Arifin Tasrif
ii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

FOREWORD BY MEMBER OF
Let us praise to God the Almighty for His blessing that the National
Energy Council has finished the book of Indonesia Energy Outlook
2022.
Indonesia Energy Outlook potrays the energy in Indonesia including

the current energy condition and energy projection in the future.
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 is jointly formulated by Members of

the National Energy Council from Stakeholders and Editorial Board
at the Secretariate General of the National Energy Council with the
assistance from the experts. The formulation of Indonesia Energy Outlook also involves units
in the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources namely the Data and Information Technology
Center, Directorate General of Electricity, Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Directorate
General of New Renewable Energy and Energy Conservation, as well as Directorate General
of Mineral and Coal especially on the collection of current data and planning data.
In Energy Outlook 2022, the energy supply and demand projection are carried out for the
next 10 years in two (2) scenarios namely Business as Usual (BaU) which uses the existing
policy and Optimistic (OPT) scenario which uses assumptions toward developed country
2045 and Net Zero Emission (NZE) 2060. Next, the projection from the two scenarios will be
compared with the projection that has been set in National Energy General Planning (RUEN).
In this 2022 publication, Indonesia Energy Outlook presents the result of projection based
on 5 regions namely Sumatra, Java-Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi and Nusa Tenggara, Maluku
and Papua (NUSMAPA).

Member of National Energy Council from
Industrial Stakeholder
Herman Darnel Ibrahim
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 iii

FOREWORD BY
SECRETARY GENERAL OF
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 is an annual publication by the
Secretariate General of the National Energy Council since 2014.
The energy supply and demand projection are conducted based on

LEAP (Low Emissions Analysis Platform) modelling using 2021 as
the baseline year taken from the Data and Information Center MEMR
and BPS as well as data of planning from related ministries.
In the effort to improve the quality of energy supply and demand

projection data, Secretariate General of the National Energy Council
would enhance the relationship with related parties to publish the book of Indonesia Energy
Outlook as a reliable and trusted reference.

Secretary General of the National Energy Council
Djoko Siswanto
iv Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

EDITORIAL BOARD
ADVISOR
Member of the National Energy Council from Industrial Stakeholder
Herman Darnel Ibrahim
Secretary General of the National Energy Council

Djoko Siswanto
SUPERVISOR
Head of Energy Policy and Assembly Facilitation Bureau
Yunus Saefulhak
WRITERS
Suharyati
Nurina Indah Pratiwi
Sadmoko Hesti Pambudi
Jamaludin Lastiko Wibowo
Fawwaz Dzakwan Arifin
Azhari Sauqi
Joel Theodorus Damanik
Daud Bonatua Tyson Pangaribuan
Nanang Kristanto
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
We would like to convey out gratitude to all related parties for the inputs and suggestions in
formulating Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022:
- Members of the National Energy Council from stakeholders;
- Directorate General of Oil and Gas, Directorate General of Electricity, Directorate
General of Mineral and Coal, Directorate General of New Renewable Energy and Energy
Conservation, Data and Information Center MEMR and PT PLN (Persero);
- Danish Energy Agency;
- Energy experts for their contribution in formulating Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022.
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 v

DISCLOSURE
Indonesia Energy Outlook (IEO) 2022 is an analysis on the long-term national energy demand
and supply projection (2022-2032) with particular assumptions which are developed for the
purpose of future energy scenario planning. The assumption and projection are based on
energy technology development including fossil and renewable based on current data and
condition. The data in Indonesia Energy Outlook is taken from official publication as well as
temporary data or data that are continuously updated by the sources.
vi Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
Indonesia Energy Outlook (IEO) 2022 presents national energy demand and supply
projection in 2022-2032 based on assumptions of social, economy and technology
development in the future by using baseline data year 2021.
The energy demand and supply analysis are conducted based on LEAP (Low Emissions
Analysis Platform) calculation model. LEAP is an energy planning modelling application to
take an integrated energy demand and supply analysis.
Population growth and economic growth are the basic assumptions which are developed
to obtain an illustration on energy demand up to the year 2032, biofuel mandatory, electric
vehicle (EV) development, and power capacity.
In 2032, final energy consumption in BaU scenario will increase with the average growth of
4.8% per year into 207 million TOE. The biggest final energy consumption shares in 2032
come from transportation and industry with 42.6% and 37.9% respectively. The final energy
consumption in OPT scenario will increase 6.6% per year into 248 million TOE. Unlike BaU
scenario, the biggest final energy consumption in OPT scenario comes from industry with
49.2%, followed by transportation with 36.4%.
Based on region, the biggest final energy consumption in 2032 occurs in Java-Bali (45.7%)
in BaU scenario, while the smallest final energy consumption occurs in Nusmapa (10.4%).
Electricity demand in 2032 in OPT scenario is projected to reach 60 million TOE (702 TWh)
or almost twice of BaU scenario that is influenced by fuel to electric vehicle substitution
program.
Meanwhile, electricity production in 2032 is projected to reach 791 TWh in OPT scenario and
489 TWh in BaU scenario. Power production in both scenarios in 2032 is still dominated by
coal of 75.1% in BaU and 48.9% in OPT.
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 vii

ISSN 2527 - 3000
TABLE OF CONTENT
REMARK BY CHAIRMAN OF NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL........................................... ii
FOREWORD BY MEMBER OF NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL.......................................... iii
FOREWORD BY SECRETARY GENERAL OF THE NATIONAL ENERGY COUNCIL............. iv
EDITORIAL BOARD .......................................................................................................... v
DISCLOSURE................................................................................................................... vi
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY ................................................................................................... vii
TABLE OF CONTENT........................................................................................................ viii
LIST OF PICTURES.......................................................................................................... xi
LIST OF TABLES............................................................................................................... xiv
CHAPTER I INTRODUCTION......................................................................................... 1
1.1 Background............................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Methodology........................................................................................................... 1
1.2.1 Modeling Analysis Framework..................................................................... 1
1.2.2 Energy Projection Scenario.......................................................................... 3
1.2.3 Energy-related Policy Assumption.............................................................. 4
1.3 Current Energy Condition....................................................................................... 5
1.3.1 Oil................................................................................................................. 5
1.3.2 Gas............................................................................................................... 8
1.3.3 Coal.............................................................................................................. 9
1.3.4 Renewable Energy....................................................................................... 11
1.3.5 New Energy.................................................................................................. 12
CHAPTER II NATIONAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION UNTIL 2021................................. 17

2.1 Final Energy Consumption...................................................................................... 17
2.1.1 Final Energy Consumption per Sector......................................................... 17
2.1.2 Final Energy Consumption per Energy Type................................................ 18
2.1.3 Final Energy Consumption per Region......................................................... 18
2.2 Primary Energy Supply............................................................................................ 20
2.2.1 Primary Energy Supply per Energy Type...................................................... 20
2.2.2 Primary Energy Supply per Region............................................................... 21
2.3 Electricity Consumption.......................................................................................... 22
2.3.1 Electricity Consumption per Sector............................................................. 22
2.3.2 Electricity Consumption per Region............................................................. 23
2.3.3 Electricity Consumption per Capita............................................................. 24
2.4 Fuel Consumption................................................................................................... 24
2.4.1 Fuel Consumption per Sector...................................................................... 24
2.4.2 Fuel Consumption per Region...................................................................... 26
2.4.3 Fuel Consumption per Capita...................................................................... 26
viii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

2.5 LPG Consumption................................................................................................... 27
2.5.1 LPG Consumption per Sector...................................................................... 27
2.5.2 LPG Consumption per Region...................................................................... 28
2.5.3 LPG Consumption per Capita...................................................................... 28
2.6 Coal Consumption.................................................................................................. 29
2.6.1 Coal Consumption in Industrial Sector........................................................ 29
2.6.2 Coal Consumption on Industry per Region.................................................. 29
2.7 Energy Elasticity and Intensity................................................................................ 30
2.8 Energy Price............................................................................................................ 31
2.8.1 Electricity Price............................................................................................ 32
2.8.2 Fuel Price...................................................................................................... 32
2.8.3 Natural Gas Price......................................................................................... 33
2.8.4 LPG Price...................................................................................................... 34
2.8.5 Coal Price..................................................................................................... 34
2.9 Emission.................................................................................................................. 35
2.10 Energy Infrastructure.............................................................................................. 36
2.10.1 Oil Refinery................................................................................................... 36
2.10.2 LPG Refinery................................................................................................ 36
2.10.3 LNG Refinery................................................................................................ 38
2.10.4 City Gas Network......................................................................................... 38
2.10.5 Power Plant.................................................................................................. 39
2.11 Energy Policy........................................................................................................... 41
2.11.1 Oil and Gas.................................................................................................... 41
2.11.2 Coal............................................................................................................... 42
2.11.3 Renewable Energy........................................................................................ 43
CHAPTER III ENERGY OUTLOOK PROJECTION 2022-2032..................................... 47

3.1 Final Energy Consumption...................................................................................... 47
3.1.1 Final Energy Consumption per Sector......................................................... 49
3.1.2 Final Energy Consumption per Energy Type................................................ 53
3.1.3 Final Energy Consumption per Region......................................................... 55
3.2 Electricity Consumption.......................................................................................... 56
3.2.1 National Electricity Consumption per Sector............................................... 56
3.2.2 Electricity Consumption per Region............................................................. 57
3.3 Electricity................................................................................................................. 58
3.3.1 Power Plant Capacity................................................................................... 58
3.3.2 Power Plant Capacity per Region................................................................ 59
3.3.3 Electricity Production................................................................................... 60
3.4 Primary Energy Supply............................................................................................ 62
3.4.1 National Primary Energy Supply................................................................... 62
3.4.2 Primary Energy Supply per Region............................................................... 62
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 ix

3.5 Energy Indicator...................................................................................................... 63
3.5.1 Electricity Consumption per Capita ............................................................... 63
3.5.2 Primary Energy per Capita ............................................................................. 64
3.5.3 CO2 Emission ................................................................................................ 64
3.6 Comparison of Primary Energy Mix as the Result of Projection and RUEN............ 66
3.7 Regional Energy Projection 2032........................................................................... 67
3.8 Energy Projection 2022-2023................................................................................ 68
3.8.1 Final Energy.................................................................................................. 68
3.8.2 Power Plant.................................................................................................. 70
3.8.3 Primary Energy............................................................................................. 71
3.8.4 Emission....................................................................................................... 72
CHAPTER IV NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS......................................................................................... 77
4.1 Electricity for Rural Areas and Energy Supply for Outermost, Remote and
Disadvantaged Areas.............................................................................................. 77
4.2 City Gas Network.................................................................................................... 80
4.3 Promoting Electric Stove as Fossil Fuel Substitution............................................. 81
4.4 The Development of Electric Vehicle...................................................................... 82
4.5 Preparing Energy Transition.................................................................................... 83
4.6 Energy Subsidy........................................................................................................ 84
4.7 The Establishment of Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization
(NEPIO)................................................................................................................... 85
4.8 Hydrogen Development Plan.................................................................................. 86
4.9 Energy Conservation and Efficiency....................................................................... 89
4.10 Condition of National Energy Security.................................................................... 90
CHAPTER V CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION............................................... 95

ATTACHMENT I OUTLOOK SUMMARY ............................................................................ 99
x Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

LIST OF PICTURES
Picture 1.1 Modeling Analysis Framework................................................................... 2
Picture 1.2 Oil Reserves (Proven) 2012-2021............................................................. 6
Picture 1.3 Crude Oil Production, Export and Import 2012-2021............................... 7
Picture 1.4 Fuel Production, Import and Export 2012-2021....................................... 7
Picture 1.5 Gas Reserves 2012-2021.......................................................................... 8
Picture 1.6 Gas Production and Export 2012-2021..................................................... 9
Picture 1.7 LPG Production and Import 2012-2021.................................................... 9
Picture 1.8 Coal Reserves 2012-2021......................................................................... 10
Picture 1.9 Coal Production, Export and Import 2012-2021....................................... 10
Picture 1.10 Biodiesel Production and Export 2012 - 2021........................................... 12
Picture 2.1 Final Energy Consumption per Sector 2012 – 2021.................................. 17

Picture 2.2 Final Energy Consumption per Energy 2012 – 2021................................. 18
Picture 2.3 Final Energy Consumption per Region in 2021 based on
Consuming Sector..................................................................................... 19
Picture 2.4 Final Energy Consumption per Region 2021 based on Energy Type......... 20
Picture 2.5 Primary Energy Supply 2012 – 2021.......................................................... 20
Picture 2.6 Primary Energy Mix 2021........................................................................... 21
Picture 2.7 Primary Energy Supply per Region 2021................................................... 22
Picture 2.8 Electricity Consumption per Sector 2012 – 2021...................................... 23
Picture 2.9 Electricity Consumption per Region 2021................................................. 23
Picture 2.10 Electricity Consumption per Capita 2016-2021........................................ 24
Picture 2.11 Fuel Consumption 2012-2021................................................................... 25
Picture 2.12 Fuel Consumption per Sector 2012 - 2021............................................... 25
Picture 2.13 Fuel Consumption per Region................................................................... 26
Picture 2.14 Fuel Consumption per Capita.................................................................... 27
Picture 2.15 LPG Consumption 2012-2021................................................................... 27
Picture 2.16 LPG Consumption per Region................................................................... 28
Picture 2.17 LPG Consumption per Capita.................................................................... 28
Picture 2.18 Indonesia Coal Consumption in Industry 2012-2021............................... 29
Picture 2.19 Coal Consumption in Industry per Region................................................. 29
Picture 2.20 Indonesia Energy Elasticity 2012-2021.................................................... 30
Picture 2.21 Indonesia Primary Energy Intensity 2012-2021........................................ 31
Picture 2.22 Energy Price (Thousand Rupiah/BOE)...................................................... 31
Picture 2.23 Fuel Price Development 2012 – 2021....................................................... 33
Picture 2.24 Gas Price Development............................................................................. 33
Picture 2.25 LPG Price Development............................................................................. 34
Picture 2.26 Development of the Average Coal Reference Price.................................. 35
Picture 2.27 CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion........................................................ 35
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 xi

Picture 2.28 Gas Network for Household Infrastructure Built by
The Government per Province................................................................... 39
Picture 2.29 Power Plant Installed Capacity per Energy Type 2012-2021................... 40
Picture 2.30 NRE-Based Power Plant Installed Capacity 2012-2021.......................... 40
Picture 2.31 Power Plant Capacity per Region 2021..................................................... 41
Picture 3.1 Final Energy Demand per Sector until 2032.............................................. 47

Picture 3.2 Final Energy Share per Energy Type 2021................................................. 48
Picture 3.3 Final Energy Demand per Energy Type until 2032..................................... 48
Picture 3.4 Final Energy Demand in Industry per Energy Type.................................... 49
Picture 3.5 Energy Demand Share of the Six Biggest Industries in BaU
Scenario 2032............................................................................................ 50
Picture 3.6 Energy Demand in Transportation in Both Scenario.................................. 50
Picture 3.7 Energy Demand in Household Sector per Energy Type............................. 51
Picture 3.8 Energy Demand in Commercial Sector per Energy Type........................... 52
Picture 3.9 Energy Demand in Other Sectors per Energy Type.................................... 52
Picture 3.10 Fuel Consumption per Sector in BaU and OPT Scenario........................... 53
Picture 3.11 LPG Consumption per Sector.................................................................... 53
Picture 3.12 Gas Consumption per Scenario................................................................. 54
Picture 3.13 Coal Consumption in Industrial Sector..................................................... 54
Picture 3.14 Bioenergy Consumption per Sector.......................................................... 55
Picture 3.15 Final Energy Consumption per Region...................................................... 56
Picture 3.16 National Electricity Demand per Sector..................................................... 57
Picture 3.17 Electricity Consumption per Region.......................................................... 57
Picture 3.18 Power Plant Capacity per Scenario........................................................... 58
Picture 3.19 NRE Power Plant per Scenario................................................................... 59
Picture 3.20 Power Plant Capacity per Region.............................................................. 59
Picture 3.21 NRE Power Plant Capacity per Region...................................................... 60
Picture 3.22 Electricity Production per Energy Type..................................................... 61
Picture 3.23 Electricity Production from NRE Power Plant............................................ 61
Picture 3.24 Primary Energy Mix in Both Scenarios in 2032.......................................... 62
Picture 3.25 Primary Energy Supply per Region 2032................................................... 63
Picture 3.26 Electricity Consumption per Capita........................................................... 63
Picture 3.27 Primary Energy per Capita......................................................................... 64
Picture 3.28 Carbon Emission in Both Scenarios........................................................... 64
Picture 3.29 GHG Emission per Capita.......................................................................... 65
Picture 3.30 Comparison of Primary Energy Mix Projection 2025................................. 66
Picture 3.31 Comparison of NRE Mix Projection 2021-2032........................................ 67
Picture 3.32 Final Energy Projection per Sector 2022-2023........................................ 68
Picture 3.33 Projection of Final Consumption per Energy Type 2022-2023................ 69
Picture 3.34 Final Energy Projection per Region 2022-2023........................................ 69
Picture 3.35 Projection of Power Plant per Energy Type 2022-2023........................... 70
Picture 3.36 Projection of Power Plant Capacity per Region 2022-2023..................... 70
xii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

Picture 3.37 Projection of Primary Energy Supply 2022-2023..................................... 71
Picture 3.38 Projection of Primary Energy Mix 2022-2023........................................... 71
Picture 3.39 Projection of Primary Energy Supply per Region 2022-2023................... 72
Picture 3.40 Projection of Energy Emission per Sector 2022-2023.............................. 72
Picture 3.41 Projection of Energy Emission Per Region 2022-2023............................. 73
Picture 4.1 Realization of Electrified Villages Distribution 2021................................. 78

Picture 4.2 Distribution of One-Price Fuel until 2020................................................. 79
Picture 4.3 Gas Infrastructure Development Map....................................................... 80
Picture 4.4 GSEN Program to Stop LPG Import........................................................... 82
Picture 4.5 GSEN Program to Stop Fuel Import........................................................... 83
Picture 4.6 Development of Energy Subsidy 2016-2021............................................ 85
Picture 4.7 Hydrogen Fuel Cell.................................................................................... 87
Picture 4.8 Hydrogen Production Technology............................................................. 88
Picture 4.9 Energy Security Model............................................................................... 91
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 xiii

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.1 Scenario Assumption.................................................................................... 4
Table 1.2 NRE Potential and Power Plant Capacity 2021............................................. 11
Table 2.1 Average Electricity Tariff per Costumer Group (Rupiah/kWh)..................... 32
Table 2.2 Indonesia Oil Refinery Capacity 2021........................................................... 36
Table 2.3 Indonesia LPG Refinery Capacity 2021........................................................ 37
Table 2.4 Indonesia LNG Refinery Capacity 2021........................................................ 38
Table 3.1 Energy Indicator per Scenario....................................................................... 65
Table 3.2 Energy Projection per Region in 2032 in BaU Scenario................................ 67
Table 3.3 Energy Projection per Region in 2032 in OPT Scenario................................ 68
Table 4.1 Details of PLN Customer in Java-Bali........................................................... 81
Table 4.2 Indonesia Radioactive Mineral Resources 2021........................................... 86
xiv Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

1
INTRODUCTION
1 INTRODUCTION
1.1 BACKGROUND
Indonesia Energy Outlook (IEO) which is published annually is a result of an analysis to

give an overview on national energy condition especially on energy supply and demand
projection until 2032. The 2022-2032 projection uses two scenarios namely Business as
Usual (BaU) and Optimistic scenario (OPT). The BaU scenario uses the consumptions based
on the current condition, while OPT scenario uses the assumptions based the condition
toward developed country 2045 and NZE 2060.
The main data source in IEO 2022 is Handbook of Energy and Economic Statistics of
Indonesia (HEESI) 2021 publication by Data and Information Center MEMR, RUPTL PLN
2021-2030, Statistics Indonesia 2022 – BPS , and Industrial Statistics of BPS 2019.
1.2 METHODOLOGY
1.2.1 Modeling Analysis Framework

Modeling analysis is divided into three stages namely final energy demand analysis, energy
transformation, and primary energy supply. Final energy demand analysis is done by using
GDP growth assumption and population growth. It also takes into account the policy,
strategic planning and roadmap on current energy development. The primary energy supply
analysis also takes into account the use of various energy sources and energy resources
potential including the current policies as current energy technology development.
Meanwhile, energy transformation analysis is done by considering RUPTL. The modeling
analysis framework is shown in Picture 1.1.
The energy supply and demand analysis are conducted based on calculation of LEAP model
as a simulation model in energy planning which can conduct an integrated energy supply
and demand analysis. In LEAP model, energy demand projection is calculated based on the
multiplication of energy consumption activity and energy consumption intensity. Energy
activity is described by economic growth, population and production. Meanwhile, energy
intensity is the level of energy consumption per GDP or per population or per production in
particular period. Energy intensity can be considered as fixed during simulation period or
declining to show energy efficiency increase.
Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 1

Based on the modelling analysis framework in Picture 1.1, the parameters in final energy
demand projection are social economic data including population and economic growth,
historical data on energy consumption to find out energy intensity and energy consumption
pattern as the impact of people’s lifestyle that is influenced by the projection of GDP increase
or a more efficient technology.
Macro Economy &

Demography Related Policy
Indicator Energy
(Population) & Regulation
(Intensity & Elasticity)
Final Energy Demand Analysist
Industry Transportation Household Commercial Others Non Energy
COAL NAT. GAS NRE ELECTRICITY FUEL
Energy Transformation Analysist
Gas Refinery
Power Plant Power Plant
(LPG & LNG)
Primary Energy Supply Analysist
COAL GAS NRE OIL Others
Green House Gas Emission
Picture 1.1 Modeling Analysis Framework
2 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

In 2022, the energy supply demand projection per region will also be carried out to obtain
the overview of energy demand and supply in each region. The projection is done in five
regions namely Sumatra, Java-Bali, Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and Nusmapa (Nusa Tenggara,
Maluku and Papua). The consideration in determining the five regions is the geographical
condition of several provinces located close to each other.
In the modelling, energy consumption uses the data on each province. It is then calculated
based on per region. The data of energy consumption per province is obtained from units in
MEMR and energy Business Entities. Data on fuel and LPG consumption/sales per province
is specifically derived from Directorate General of Oil and Gas. Meanwhile, the main data
of electricity sales is derived from PLN sales data with additional identification of non-
PLN consumption data and electricity from smelter industry. Data on coal consumption
per province is obtained from Directorate General of Mineral and Coal. However, the
sales of electricity per sub sector refers to data from Industrial Statistics BPS. Data on gas
consumption is based on data on sales at HEESI, while consumption per industrial sub sector
uses Industrial Statistics BPS data. The data on household consumption per province uses
data from Indonesia Residential End Use Survey that is the result of a CLASP study with the
Directorate General of EBTKE.
1.2.2 Energy Projection Scenario

1.2.2.1 BAU Scenario
In the book of Statictics Indonesia 2022 published by BPS, Indonesian economic growth
in 2020 is -2.07% and 3.7% in 2021 or experiences a decline from the previous year of 5%
in 2019 due to the Covid-19 pandemic. Meanwhile the economic growth in 2022 refers to
Law No. 6 of 2021 on State Budget and Expenditure 2022. It is predicted that Indonesia
economic growth will reach 5.2% in 2022 and 5.3%-5.9% in 2023.
BAU scenario refers to current condition and the future projection which is assumed
based on historical data in the last several years such as additional city gas, electric stove,
electric vehicle, and others. The power plant development refers to RUPTL 2021-2030 with
assumption that the project completion is delayed for two years.
1.2.2.2 OPT Scenario

OPT scenario uses the assumptions that lead to developed country 2045 and NZE 2060.
The population growth assumption is the same with the previous scenario, but the economic
growth is higher. The use of electric vehicle and power plant additional capacity form NRE
especially Solar PP and co-firing Coal Fired Power Plant is quite different compared to BaU
scenario. The details of assumption in the two scenarios above can be seen in Table 1.1

Table 1.1 Scenario Assumption
INDICATOR Unit BaU OPT

DEMOGRAPHY & ECONOMY
Population growth % 0.9
Economic growth % • 2023-2025 of 5.6
(Average) • 2026-2032 of 6-6.2
DEMAND
Electric Car 2032
- Java % 10 20
- Outside Java % 7 20
Electric Motorcycle 2032
- Java % 5 25
Electric Bus 2032
- Java % 5 10
Biofuel Mandatory 2032
- Bioethanol % 1 5
- Biodiesel % 30 40
ELECTRICITY
RUPTL 2021-2030
RUPTL 2021-2030 with Optimization of Solar
Power Plant Capacity
COD delayed 2 years PP and Co-firing Coal
Fired PP
1.2.3 Energy-Related Policy Assumption
In order to support energy demand projection, several energy-related policies are being
considered, including:
1. National Energy Policy
National Energy Policy (KEN) mandates renewable energy mix target in primary energy
mix of at least 23% in 2025 and minimize the use of oil to be less than 25% in 2025.
Furthermore, energy efficiency is also targeted to decline 1% per year to promote energy
saving in all sectors. Several targets in KEN also becomes the consideration in energy
demand projection such as optimization of gas for domestic and coal downstreaming.

2. National Energy General Plan (RUEN)
National Energy General Plan (RUEN) is a mandate of Law No. 30 of 2007 on Energy.
Based on Article 17 paragraph (1) of Law No. 30, the government formulates the draft
of RUEN based on KEN. The targets in RUEN that are taken into consideration in energy
demand projection are LPG to city gas substitution, DME utilization, biofuel utilization,
and EV utilization.
3. MEMR Strategic Planning

Several strategic planning programs in MEMR that are taken into consideration in
calculating the energy demand projection are the development of city gas, gas for public
vehicle and biofuel utilization.
4. RUPTL 2021-2030
The data on capacity of planned power plant refers to RUPTL 2021-2030. In BaU
scenario, the power plant development refers to RUPTL with the project completion is
delayed for two years and the OPT scenario follows RUPTL with additional optimization
of Solar PP and co-firing Coal Fired Power Plant.
5. Biofuel Roadmap
Biofuel mandatory is taken into consideration as one of the assumptions in final energy
demand projection in transportation, industry, commercial and power plant sector.
1.3 CURRENT ENERGY CONDITION
In 2021, total primary energy production consisting of oil, gas, coal and renewable energy
reaches 481 million TOE. Around 58.2% or 280 million TOE from the total production is
exported, especially coal and LNG. However, Indonesia is also importing energy especially
crude oil and fuel products amounting to 49 million TOE and small amount of high rank coal
to meet the demand of steel industry.
1.3.1 Oil
Based on BP Statistic Review 2021 data, the number of Indonesia oil reserves is only 0.1%
from the world reserves. Indonesia oil reserves experience a decline from 7.4 billion barrels
(3.7 billion barrels for potential reserves and 3.7 billion barrels for proven reserves) in 2012
to 3.9 billion barrels (1.7 billion barrels for potential reserves and 2.2 billion barrels for
proven reserves) in 2021 (Picture 1.2).

4.0
3.5
3.0
Billlion Barrel
2.5
2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Proven 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.6 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.5 2.4 2.2
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.2 Oil Reserves (Proven) 2012-2021
Oil production in the last 10 years shows the declining trend, from 315 million barrel (862
thousand bph) in 2012 into 240 million barrel (659 thousand bph) in 2021. The declining
production occurs since oil producing wells are mainly mature wells, while new producing
wells are relatively limited.
The declining production and the increasing refinery input demand cause Indonesia to
import oil especially from Middle East. The import tends to increase from 96 million barrels
in 2012 into 104 million barrels in 2021 that is influenced by the fluctuating crude oil demand
for refinery input. The crude oil import for refinery input in 2012-2018 is around 30-50%, but
it declines into 26-35% in 2019-2021.
On the other hand, Indonesia oil export continues to decline from 106 million barrel in 2012
into 44 million barrels in 2021. This is based on the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources
Regulation No. 42 of 2018 on the Priority of Crude Oil Utilization for Domestic Need. It
means that domestic oil production is used maximally for the domestic need. The trend of oil
production, export and import since 2012 to 2021 can be seen in Picture 1.3.

500
400
Million Barrel
300
200
100
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Import 96 118 122 137 148 142 126 89 80 104
Production 315 301 288 287 303 292 282 272 259 240
Export 106 105 93 115 126 103 74 26 31 44
Soource: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.3 Crude Oil Production, Export and Import 2012-2021
Within 10 years, the average fuel production from domestic is 297 million barrels per year
and the average fuel import is around 164 million barrels. The trend of fuel production,
export and import in the last 10 years can be seen in Picture 1.4.
500
450
400
350
Million Barrel
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Fuel Production Fuel Import Fuel Export
Soource: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.4 Fuel Production, Import and Export 2012-2021

1.3.2 Gas
Based on HEESI, Indonesia’s total proven gas reserves in 2021 is 42 TSCF. It declines from
103 TSCF in 2012 as shown in Picture 1.5.
120
100
80
TSCF
60
40
20
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Proven 103 102 100 98 101 100 96 50 44 42
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.5 Gas Reserves 2012-2021
In 2021 Indonesia’s total natural gas production is around 6,668 MMSCFD that is used
mainly to meet domestic consumption in the industrial sector either as energy or feed stock
(fertilizer industry), power plants and city gas (household and commercial) as well as gas
for transportation sector. Gas production is declining from around 8,698 MMSCFD in 2012.
One of them is influenced by the limited reserves in Arun. Furthermore, the activity of gas
production in Tangguh field (Train 3) is not yet started. In addition, gas has become the
export commodity in the form of LNG and piped gas of around 2,390 MMSCFD in 2021 but
the gas export is declining due to the program in prioritizing gas for domestic need that
shows an increase from 57.8% in 2012 into 64.2%. The export percentage through pipeline
and LNG toward the total gas production is declining from 42.2% in 2012 into 35.5% in 2021
(Picture 1.6).

10,000
9,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
MMSCFD
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Export 3,673 3,449 3,199 3,069 2,862 2,650 2,965 2,470 2,366 2,390
Production 8,698 8,550 8,701 8,537 8,412 8,118 8,210 7,698 6,693 6,668
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.6 Gas Production and Export 2012-2021
Gas primary energy including LPG is derived from LPG refinery production and LPG import.
LPG production from 2012 to 2021 is around 2 million tons and LPG imports continue to
increase. The trend of LPG production and import is shown in Picture 1.7.
6
Million Ton
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Production Import
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.7 LPG Production and Import 2012-2021
1.3.3 Coal
Indonesia’s total coal reserves in 2021 are 36 billion tons and it continues to increase since
2012 despite of the increasing production (Picture 1.8). It is due to the increasing exploration
in the last 10 years.

40
35
30
25
Billion Ton
20
15
10
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Reserve 29 31 32 32 28 24 40 38 39 36
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.8 Coal Reserves 2012-2021
Coal production in 2012-2021 increased significantly from 386 million tons in 2012 into 614
million tons in 2021. Coal export is around 70.9% (435 million tons) from the total production.
It is mostly exported to China and India. The high percentage of Indonesia coal export has
made Indonesia one of the biggest coal exporters in the world besides Australia. The coal
production, export and import in the last 10 years is shown in Picture 1.9.
700
600
500
Million Ton
400
300
200
100
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Import 0 1 2 3 4 5 5 7 9 14
Export 304 356 382 366 331 287 356 455 405 435
Production 386 474 458 462 456 461 558 616 564 614
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.9 Coal Production, Export and Import 2012-2021

1.3.4 Renewable Energy
The declining fossil energy production especially oil and gas as well as the global
commitment in reducing green house gas emission have encouraged the government to
continuously enhance the role of new and renewable energy to maintain energy security and
independence. Based on Government Regulation No. 79 of 2014 on National Energy Policy,
the new and renewable energy mix target is at least 23% by 2025 and 31% by 2050. Indonesia
has quite abundant new renewable energy potential to meet the primary energy mix target.
In 2021, the updating data on NRE potential has been conducted as seen in Table 1.2 below.
Table 1.2 NRE Potential and Power Plant Capacity 2021
Total Potential Power Plant

NRE Commodity % Utilization
2021 (GW) Capacity (GW)
Tidal 17.9 - -
Geothermal 23.9 2.3 9.6%
Bioenergy 56.9 2.3 4.0%
Wind 154.9 0.2 0.1%
Hydro 95.0 6.6 6.9%
Solar 3,294.4 0.2 0.01%
Total 3,643.0 11.6 0.3%
The total renewable energy potential for power plant is 3,643 GW, but only 0.3% or 11.6 GW
is utilized.
The low NRE utilization for electricity generation is due to the relatively high cost of NRE-
based power plant. Thus, it is difficult to compete with fossil power plant especially coal. In
addition, the lack of support from domestic industry in NRE component and the issue in low
interest funding have contributed to the slow development of renewable energy.
The trend of biodiesel production and export is shown in Picture 1.10.

9,000
8,000
7,000
Thousand KL
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Production Export
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 1.10 Biodiesel Production and Export 2012 - 2021
1.3.5 New Energy

The definition of new energy is based on the general provision of Law No. 30 of 2007 that
energy from new energy sources may be derived from new technology, both from renewable
energy sources or non-renewable energy sources. Several energy types that are classified
into new energy are nuclear, hydrogen, coal bed methane, liquified coal, and gasified
coal but until now these energy types have not been developed maximally. In RUEN, only
gasified coal that has the capacity development target, while other types of energy have not
determined the development target. RUEN sets the target to develop gasified coal power
plant with the capacity of 44 MW. The issues on price and technology have become the
challenges in developing new energy.
a. Nuclear
Based on data published by BRIN, Indonesia has the potential of 89,498 ton of uranium
and 143,234 ton of thorium. The heat of 1 gram fission of U235 is equivalent to the heat of
2-3 tons of coal. The average abundance of U235 is 0.7% as long as no new nuclear raw
material reserves are found. Therefore, according to the uranium potential data, the total
potential only from Indonesian uranium is equivalent to 1.88 billion tons of coal.
b. Coal Bed Methane

The abundant coal reserves and resources in Indonesia contain another energy source
potential including coal bed methane (CBM). CBM that is formed together with coal
seams underground can be used as an alternative gas energy source. Based on Research
and Development Agency MEMR data, Indonesia CBM resources are 453 trillion cubic
feet (TCF) spread in 11 coal and oil and gas basins. One of them is South Sumatra Basin
with 180 TCF resources but until today, the potential is not yet used massively.

c. Coal Gasification
The government through the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources planned to develop
coal gasification in the form of dimethyl ether (DME) as an alternative substitution to
LPG for household. DME is planned to be developed from the abundant resources of
domestic coal. The Presidential Regulation on RUEN mandates the development of 1
million ton DME in 2025. Furthermore, Indonesia Energy Grand Strategy has targeted
DME development from coal to stop LPG import by 2030 from State Owned Enterprise
IUP and extension of PKP2B. There are three business entities that have been planning
to develop DME. They are PT Bukit Asam with production plan of 1.4 million tons per year,
PT KPC with production plan of 1.2 million tons per year and PT Arutmin with production
plan of 2 million tons per year. They are going to start the production in 2025.
In addition, three coal business entities located in East Kalimantan and North Kalimantan
plan to develop underground coal gasification but it is still in pilot project stage. These
business entities are PT Kideco Jaya Agung in East Kalimantan, PT Indominco in East
Kalimantan, and PT Medco Energi Mining International (MEMI) and Phoenix Energi Ltd in
North Kalimantan.

2
NATIONAL ENERGY
CONSUMPTION UNTIL
2021
2 NATIONAL ENERGY
CONSUMPTION UNTIL
2021
2.1 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
2.1.1 Final Energy Consumption per Sector

Final energy consumption in 2021 increased after a sharp decline in 2020 due to Covid-19
pandemic. In 2021, final energy consumption reached 123 million TOE or increased around
1.6% due to economic recovery along the year 2021.
Based on the consuming sector, transportation still dominates the biggest portion of 44.2%
from the total final energy consumption as shown in Picture 2.1. Compared to the previous
year, energy consumption in transportation increased 6.7%. The increase occurred along
with the increasing public mobility as the social restriction and the number of Covid-19
pandemic cases are declining.
140
120
100
Million TOE
80
60
40
20
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Industry Household Commercial Transportation Others Total
Source: HEESI, 2021

Picture 2.1 Final Energy Consumption per Sector 2012 – 2021

Industry is the second biggest consumer which contributes 33.5% to the final energy
consumption. However, compared to the previous year, energy use in industry declined
5.8%. It shows that the industry has not been fully recovering. Next, household becomes the
third biggest energy consumer with the percentage of 16.3% from total final energy.
2.1.2 Final Energy Consumption per Energy Type

Based on type of energy, energy consumption by the public is still dominated by fuel,
reaching 33 million TOE (26.8%) as shown in Picture 2.2. It is due to the increasing public
mobility and number of vehicles. In addition, fuel to gas and electric vehicle substitution has
not been able to be carried out optimally since the number of gas filling station is still limited
and the regulation on electric vehicle has just passed in August 2019.
140
120
100
Mi8llion TOE
80
60
40
20
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Coal Gas Fuel Bio Gasoil Biogas Briquette LPG Electricity Total
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.2 Final Energy Consumption per Energy Type 2012 – 2021
Biofuel (biogasoil and biogas) is in the second place with the consumption of around 27
million TOE (22.1%). The achievement is part of the government’s effort to promote the
utilization of biofuel through B30 mandatory. Meanwhile, electricity and LPG consumption
by the public in 2021 reached 23.6% million TOE and 10.2 million TOE respectively. The
consumption of these two energy products increased from the previous year.
2.1.3 Final Energy Consumption per Region

Based on the region, final energy consumption in 2021 is centered in Java-Bali region with
the share of 52.7% from the total Indonesia final energy consumption. The next biggest share
is in Sumatra with 22 million TOE (18.0%), Kalimantan with 17 million TOE (13.9%), Sulawesi
with 12 million TOE (9.9%), and Nusmapa with 7 million TOE (5.5%) in the last position of

final energy consumption. This number is in line with the distribution of Indonesia population
about 58% in Java-Bali region, and 22% in Sumatra region.
The use of energy in Java-Bali and Sumatra is dominated by transportation, while in

Kalimantan and Sulawesi it is dominated by industry. The details of final energy consumption
per region is shown in Picture 2.3.
70
60
50
Miliion TOE
40
30
20
10
-
Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusmapa
Household Commercial Industry Transportation Others
Picture 2.3 Final Energy Consumption per Region in 2021 based on Consuming Sector
From the type of energy, all regions still depend on oil, especially in the form of fuel to meet
the demand from transportation. Specifically for Sulawesi, coal consumption (5 million TOE)
is not far different from oil consumption (4.9 million TOE). It is supported by the growing
smelter industry since 2018 along with the issuance of policy on mineral export restriction
for company which has not established domestic processing facility (Mining Law Article 102
and 103). The imbalance occurs in electricity commodity which is mostly used in Java-Bali
reaching 69.9% from total national. It shows that electricity network infrastructure outside
Java-Bali is still far below in Java-Bali. Meanwhile, for NRE, in total, utilization is mostly
found in Java-Bali of about 4 million TOE. However, the highest percentage in the mix is
in Kalimantan region reaching 14.6% (or equivalent to 3 million TOE). Complete picture in
Figure 2.4.

70
60
50
Million TOE
40
30
20
10
-
Coal Gas Fuel NRE Electricity
Picture 2.4 Final Energy Consumption per Region 2021 based on Energy Type
2.2 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
2.2.1 Primary Energy Supply per Energy Type

Total primary energy supply in 2021 increased 3.3% from the previous year as shown in
Picture 2.5. Based on energy type, coal utilization still dominated around 37.6% followed by
oil of 33.4% and gas of 16.8%.
240
210
180
Million TOE
150
120
90
60
30
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Coal Oil Gas NRE
Source: HEESI, 2021

Picture 2.5 Primary Energy Supply 2012 – 2021

In 2021, NRE supply reached 25 million TOE, or 12.2% of the total primary energy supply. This
figure increased from the previous year’s realization of only 11.3%. However, this progress
is considered insufficient because the condition of NRE achievement is still below the RUEN
projection as shown in Picture 2.6. There is still hope to increase the NRE energy mix in the
next 4 years despite that the target of 23% NRE in 2025 may be difficult to achieve.
12.2%
14.5%
NRE 37.6%
35.5%
Oil
2021 2021
RUEN TARGETS 28.1% Gas REALIZATION
33.4%
Coal
21.9% 16.8%
Picture 2.6 Primary Energy Mix 2021
2.2.2 Primary Energy Supply per Region

In line with final energy consumption, 58.6% of the total national primary energy in 2021
is concentrated in Java-Bali region, which is 114 million TOE. In Java-Bali region, coal is
still the mainstay commodity, reaching 47.3%. Meanwhile, the utilization of NRE has only
reached a mix of 8.8%.
In Sumatra region, primary energy supply reached 17.5% of the total national. Energy
utilization in Sumatra region is dominated by oil with the share of 39.1%. However, the
utilization of NRE in Sumatra region is the largest compared to other regions, which is 22.7%.
Meanwhile, the utilization of NRE reached only 16.5% in Kalimantan, 12.6% in Sulawesi and
7.6% in Nusmapa. The details of primary energy consumption in 2021 in each region can be
seen in Picture 2.7.

120
100
80
Million TOE
60
40
20
0
Coal Gas Oil NRE
Picture 2.7 Primary Energy Supply per Region 2021
2.3 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
2.3.1 Electricity Consumption per Sector

The growth of electricity consumption in the last 10 years shows an increase from 174 TWh in
2012 to 255 TWh in 2021. It leads electricity to experience the highest growth compared to
other types of energy after experiencing a decline in electricity consumption in 2020 due to
the Covid-19 pandemic. The electricity consumption is electricity that is included in the PLN
network (on-grid), but in total electricity consumption in Indonesia will be higher because
it does not include electricity consumed directly from power plants in the industrial sector.
Households are the largest sector that consumes electricity in 2021, followed by the
industrial sector, commercial sector and transportation sector. The demand for electricity
in the household sector is 114 TWh or 44.9% of the total national electricity demand. This is
influenced by the number of households reaching around 69 million in 2021. The demand for
electricity in the industrial sector is 80 TWh (31.4%) and the commercial sector is 60 TWh
(23.6%). The rest of the demand is from the transportation sector of 0.3 TWh (0.1%). Currently,
the transportation sector’s electricity consumption is only used for the Jabodetabek and
Java electric trains with a consumption of 317 GWh. The demand for electricity by sector is
shown in Picture 2.8.

300
255
246 243
250 235
223
216
199 203
200 188
174
TWh
150
100
50
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Household Commercial Industry Transportation Total
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.8 Electricity Consumption per Sector 2012 – 2021
2.3.2 Electricity Consumption per Region

In general, the largest total electricity consumption is in Java-Bali region with 69.9% of the
total national followed by Sumatra with only 16.3%, Sulawesi and Kalimantan with 4.6% and
4.5% respectively, and Nusmapa with 2.5%.
The condition of electricity consumption per region shows that the progress of infrastructure
development outside Java-Bali is still very far from the conditions in Java-Bali region. The
conditions in eastern Indonesia especially Papua and Maluku, contribute no more than 3%. In
addition, the level of population density is also one of the main factors causing disparity. Total
electricity customers in 2021 reached 79 million, around 61% are Java household. This fact
further strengthens the need for accelerated development and equity outside Java, as shown
in Picture 2.9
200
180
160
140
120
TWh
100
80
60
40
20
-
Household Commercial Industry Transportation Others
Picture 2.9 Electricity Consumption per Region 2021

2.3.3 Electricity Consumption per Capita
Electricity consumption per capita over the last 5 years grew by 2.9%. The trend of electricity
consumption per capita in 2016-2021 from the Directorate General of Electricity, MEMR can
be seen in Picture 2.10.
1,150
1,123
1,100 1,084 1,088

1,064
1,050
1,021
kWh/Capita
1,000
956
950
900
850
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: Directorate General of Electricity MEMR, processed by

Secretariate General of National Energy Council
Picture 2.10 Electricity Consumption per Capita 2016-2021
2.4 FUEL CONSUMPTION
2.4.1 Fuel Consumption per Sector

In 2021, fuel consumption will increase by 5.7% compared to 2020 to 70 million KL in line
with the increase in community mobility, especially the increase in activities on land, river-
sea, and air transportation, due to the relaxation in social restrictions and the decrease in
the number of Covid-19 cases. Under these conditions, there was an increase in the use of
diesel oil by 59.9%, bio gasoil by 8.2%, fuel oil by 5.9% and gasoline by 5.6% compared to in
2020. The description of fuel consumption per type of fuel can be seen in Picture 2.11 below.

80
70
60
50
Million KL
40
30
20
10
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Avgas Avtur Gasoline Korosene Diesel Fuel Oil Biogasoil
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.11 Fuel Consumption 2012-2021
Biogasoil consumption increased from 9 million KL in 2012 to 30 million KL in 2021 which is

influenced by the B30 program. On the other hand, the consumption of diesel oil decreased
from 25 million KL in 2012 to 3 million KL in 2021.
The largest use of fuel, when viewed by consuming sector, is dominated by the transportation
sector followed by the industrial sector and other sectors as shown in Picture 2.12 below.
500
450
400
350
Million BOE
300
250
200
150
100
50
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Industry Household Commercial Transportation Others
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.12 Fuel Consumption per Sector 2012 - 2021

The share of fuel consumption in transportation sector reached 73.5% in 2012 and continues
to increase to 90.3% in 2021. This condition occurs since the substitution program from
fuel to CNG has not been implemented due to the limited number of Gas Filling Station. In
addition, the electric vehicle program that was launched a few years ago has not yet been
implemented because regulations related to electric cars were only enacted in August
2019. On the other hand, the growth of road vehicles which includes cars, buses, trucks
and motorcycles continues to increase. The largest vehicle growth is motorcycles, which
currently reach 121.2 million units, followed by passenger cars with 16.9 million units.
Thus, the number of vehicles is very influential on the increasing volume of fuel, especially
gasoline.
2.4.2 Fuel Consumption per Region

By region, most fuel consumption is in Java-Bali region at around 45.9%, followed by
Sumatra at 22.3% and Kalimantan at 17.6% as shown in Picture 2.13. By province, the largest
fuel consumption is in East Java, followed by West Java and Central Java. The high fuel
consumption in Java-Bali is indeed in line with the high mobility and number of vehicles
in the region. Based on BPS data, the number of Indonesian motorized vehicles in 2021 is
142.9 million units. Meanwhile, the number of motorcycles in Java and Bali is 75.2 million
units (62.1% of the total motorcycle in Indonesia) and the number of passenger cars is 11.9
million units (70.5%).
35
30
25
Million KL
20
15
10
0
Picture 2.13 Fuel Consumption per Region
2.4.3 Fuel Consumption per Capita

In 2021, fuel consumption per capita increased by 5.7 compared to 2016 as shown in Picture
2.14 .

290
280
270
Litre/Capita
260
250
240
230
220
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Picture 2.14 Fuel Consumption per Capita
2.5 LPG CONSUMPTION
2.5.1 LPG Consumption per Sector

Around 96% of LPG in Indonesia is consumed by the household sector as the impact of
kerosene to LPG conversion program since 2007. In addition, starting in 2016 free LPG
converter kits have been distributed to fishermen and farmers with the aim of saving
fishermen’s operational costs when fishing. LPG consumption in 2012 reached 5 million
tonnes and continues to increase with an average growth rate for 2012-2021 of 6.1%.
The increase in LPG consumption, especially 3 kg LPG that is still subsidized, needs to be
anticipated by the Government, given the large number of uses of 3 kg LPG which are not on
target. The development of LPG consumption is shown in Picture 2.15.
9,000 6.7%
2.7% 3.3%
8,000 5.2%
8.3%
7,000 4.7% 4.2%
8.7%
6,000 11.5%
15.7%
Thousand Ton
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Industry Household Commercial Growth
Source: HEESI, 2021

Picture 2.15 LPG Consumption 2012-2021

2.5.2 LPG Consumption per Region
By region, the largest share of LPG consumption is in Java and Bali at 66.2%, followed by
Sumatra at 18.8% and Sulawesi at 6.9% as shown in Picture 2.16. Considering that most of
LPG is used for households, the LPG consumption per region is influenced by the number
of households in each region. Based on BPS data, the number of households in Indonesia
is 70 million, consisting of 42.4 million households in Java-Bali, 14.5 million households in
Sumatra, 4.2 million households in Kalimantan, 4.7 million households in Sulawesi and 4.3
million households in Nusmapa.
4
Million Ton
-
Picture 2.16 LPG Consumption per Region
2.5.3 LPG Consumption per Capita

In contrast to electricity and fuel consumption, LPG consumption per capita always grows
every year starting from 2016 as shown in Picture 2.17. The average growth for the last 5
years is 4.4%. The LPG consumption growth is indeed driven by the household sector with
the allocation of 95.9% of the total LPG consumption.
35
31
29 30
30 29
28
26
25
Kg/Capita
20
15
10
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Picture 2.17 LPG Consumption per Capita

2.6 COAL CONSUMPTION
2.6.1 Coal Consumption in Industrial Sector

Coal sales in industrial sector increased from 29.3 million tons in 2012 to 20.9 million tons
in 2021. Compared to sales in 2020, consumption in industrial sector in 2021 experienced a
sharp decline of about 22.7%.
In 2021, coal consumption in industrial sector was dominated by the use of the iron, steel
and metallurgical sectors of 11.4 million tons or around 54.5% of the total industrial sector
consumption. It is then followed by the cement, textile and fertilizer industries of 4.7 million
tons , other industries of 3.7 million tons, and the pulp and paper industry of 1.1 million tons.
Data on coal consumption in industrial sector can be seen in Picture 2.18.
45
40 Others
35
30 Briquette
Million Ton
25
20 Pulp & Paper
15
10 Cement, Textile
& Fertilizer
5
Iron, Steel &
0 Metallurgy
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.18 Indonesia Coal Consumption in Industry 2012-2021
2.6.2 Coal Consumption in Industry per Region

In 2021, Sulawesi region became the largest consumer of coal, reaching 41% of the total national
coal consumption. It was caused by the large number of smelter factories as well as nickel, iron
and steel industries that use coal as an energy source. The value of coal consumption in industrial
sector per region can be seen in Picture 2.19.
10
9
8
7
Million Ton
6
5
4
3
2
1
-
Picture 2.19 Coal Consumption in Industry per Region

2.7 ENERGY ELASTICITY AND INTENSITY
Energy elasticity is the ratio of final energy consumption growth to GDP growth in the same
time period. The low or below one energy elasticity value indicates efficient use of energy
because to increase 1% GDP growth needs energy demand growth below 1%.
In accordance with the target of KEN, energy elasticity must be below one starting in 2025.
The energy elasticity will gradually decrease from year to year, and by 2050 the energy
elasticity is targeted to reach 0.46 which indicates that national energy use will be more
efficient. Indonesia’s energy elasticity from 2012-2021 fluctuated (Picture 2.20).
7
5.8
6
3
2.1
2 1.6
1.3
0.3 0.8
1 0.4
0
-0.0
-1
-2 -1.6 -0.7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.20 Indonesia Energy Elasticity 2012-2021
Meanwhile, primary energy intensity is the ratio of the amount of primary energy supply to
the total gross domestic product (TOE/Billion Rupiah). Based on RUEN, the projection of
primary energy intensity should decrease by 1% every year, but the realization of Indonesia’s
primary energy intensity from 2012-2021 fluctuated and tends to decline from 22.5 TOE/
Billion Rupiah in 2012 to 18.7 TOE/Billion Rupiah in 2021 as shown in Picture 2.21.

25.0
22.5
21.0
20.2 20.3 19.9
19.7
20.0 18.9 18.9 18.8 18.7
TOE/Billion Rupiah
15.0
10.0
5.0
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.21 Indonesia Primary Energy Intensity 2012-2021
2.8 ENERGY PRICE
Indonesia needs energy with good quality at affordable energy prices to support the vision
of becoming a developed country through the development of industry and other energy
consuming sectors. If energy prices are compared in the same unit (thousand rupiah/BOE),
then coal will be the cheapest energy source as shown in Picture 2.22 below.
1,800
1,600
1,400
Thousand Rupiah/BOE
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Gasoline Avtur Kerosene Diesel Coal
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.22 Energy Price (Thousand Rupiah/BOE)

2.8.1 Electricity Price
Based on PLN’s 2021 statistical book, the average selling price of electricity per kWh in
2021 is IDR 1,083.3. There is an increase of IDR 1,071.4 from the previous year. The price
of electricity for the household sector is still subsidized while other sectors use economic
prices. The determination of electricity tariffs by the Government is regulated in the Minister
of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 3 of 2020 on the Fourth Amendment to the
Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 28 of 2016 on Electricity Tariffs
provided by PT PLN (Persero). The Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation also
stipulates that PT PLN (Persero) is obliged to announce the electricity tariff adjustment at the
latest one month prior to the implementation of the new tariff adjustment. This is intended
to increase transparency in domestic electricity tariffs. The development of electricity tariffs
per sector in the last ten years is shown in Table 2.1.
Table 2.1 Average Electricity Tariff per Costumer Group (Rupiah/kWh)
Public
Government
Year Household Industry Business Social Street Average
Office
Lighting
2012 631.7 709.9 965.2 677.5 968.6 802.8 728.3
2013 692.1 796.4 1,116.6 756.9 1,092.2 911.0 818.4
2014 758.2 977.8 1,265.9 810.0 1,256.2 1,097.0 939.7
2015 837.0 1,142.7 1,284.2 812.4 1,324.5 1,459.1 1,034.5
2016 843.7 1,051.8 1,201.2 816.0 1,234.7 1,415.3 991.4
2017 1,056.0 1,088.8 1,245.6 821.3 1,278.5 1,461.5 1,105.1
2018 1,102.4 1,085.3 1,244.0 823.2 1,280.1 1,461.6 1,123.0
2019 1,098.8 1,100.7 1,258.3 830.7 1,291.5 1,465.1 1,129.6
2020 991.9 1,090.9 1,239.3 804.1 1,299.2 1,459.9 1,071.4
2021 1,024.0 1,086.2 1,234.7 806.4 1,292.9 1,447.1 1,083.3

Source: PLN Statistics, 2021
2.8.2 Fuel Price

Price of fuel that is still subsidized is diesel for goods transportation and kerosene for
household. Meanwhile, since 2014, fuel subsidy has been removed and the price follows
the economical price. The development of average fuel price in the last ten years is shown
in Picture 2.23.

14,000
12,000
10,000
RUPIAH/LITRE
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Gasoline RON 88 Gasoline RON 90 Gasoline RON 92 Gasoline RON 98

Avtur Kerosene Diesel CN 48 Diesel CN 51
Source: HEESI and Buku Saku KESDM, 2021
Picture 2.23 Fuel Price Development 2012 – 2021
2.8.3 Natural Gas Price

Gas price is stipulated based on the agreement between seller or supplier and buyer (consumer).
However, since 2015, the government has issued regulation on gas price for industry due to the
high gas price in industry. In 2016, the government issued policy on gas price at 6 US dollar per
MMBTU as stipulated in Presidential Regulation No. 40 of 2016 on Gas Price Stipulation. The
government then made a derivative to this Presidential Regulation through Minister of Energy
and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 8 of 2020 on the Procedure in Stipulating Certain User
and Gas Price in Industry. The technical arrangements are stipulated in Minister of Energy and
Mineral Resources Decision No. 89K/10/MEM/2020 on Certain Gas User and Price in Industry. In
this Ministerial Decision, seven industries will receive gas at the price of 6 US dollar per MMBTU
namely the industry of fertilizer, petrochemical, oleochemical, steel, ceramics, glass, and rubber
gloves. Based on this regulation, the price scheme is valid from 2020 to 2024. Gas price in the
last ten years is shown in Picture 2.24.
140,000
120,000
100,000
Rupiah/MMSCF
80,000
60,000
40,000
20,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Source: PLN Statistics, 2021

Picture 2.24 Gas Price Development

2.8.4 LPG Price
Total LPG subsidy in 2021 is 67.6 trillion rupiah. LPG receives the biggest subsidy from
the State Budget. The subsidized LPG is the 3 kg cylinder LPG for the poor or low-income
household. In reality, the 3 kg LPG is used by high income household and commercial sector.
The subsidy then does not meet the target. The price of subsidized LPG is far below normal
LPG. In reality, 85% of household uses subsidized LPG. The comparison between subsidized
and non subsidized LPG is seen in Picture 2.25.
16,000
14,000
12,000
Rupiah/Kg
10,000
8,000
6,000
4,000
2,000
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
LPG 3 Kg LPG 12 Kg LPG 50 Kg
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.25 LPG Price Development
2.8.5 Coal Price

The Directorate General of Mineral and Coal issues Coal Reference Price monthly as the
benchmark price for domestic coal. The average coal reference price in 2021 reached $121
USD, which is the highest average coal reference price in the last 10 years (highest HBA is
$215 USD in November 2021). Indonesia as one of coal producing countries has had a good
impact from the increase in world coal prices, but it needs to be a concern considering that
domestic power plants are still dominated by Coal Fired power plant. The development of
the average coal reference price from 2012 to 2022 can be seen in Picture 2.26.

300
251.1
250
200
USD/Ton
150
121.5
95.5 99.0
100 82.9 85.9
72.6 77.9
60.1 61.8 58.2
50
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
Source: DG Mineral and Coal, MEMR
Picture 2.26 Development of the Average Coal Reference Price
2.9 EMISSION
Emission is the result of fuel combustion from energy consuming sectors and power plan
activity. Total emission in 2021 is 607 million ton CO2eq. The biggest contributor is power
plant sector with 49.8%, followed by transportation and industry with 23.7% and 16.1%
respectively. The development of CO2 emission in 2012-2021 is shown in Picture 2.27.
700
639
596 607
587
600
551
532 519 530
510 518
500
Million Ton CO2eq
400
300
200
100
-
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Power Plant Transportation Commercial Household Industry Fugitive Emission Others Total
Source: Pusdatin MEMR, 2021
Picture 2.27 CO2 Emission from Fuel Combustion

2.10 ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
2.10.1 Oil Refinery

At present, Indonesia’s oil refinery capacity is 1,151.1 million BPH. The details of oil refineries
and their capacity is resumed in Table 2.2.
Table 2.2 Indonesia Oil Refinery Capacity 2021
Refinery Capacity (Million BPH)

Dumai 177.0
Musi 127.3
Cilacap 348.0
Balikpapan 260.0
Balongan 125.0
Cepu 3.8
Kasim 10.0
Tuban (TPPI) 100.0
Total Kapasitas 1,151.1
Source: HEESI, 2021
In the last 10 years, oil refinery capacity in Indonesia does not change a lot. The latest
additional capacity occurred in 2015 with the additional 12 million BPH to Tri Wahana
Universal (TWU) refinery Unit II. TWU refinery is the oil refinery located in Bojonegoro,
East Java which produces main products such as straight run gasoline, marine diesel oil,
and diesel. TWU refinery uses crude oil from Banyu Urip Field and Cepu Block. However,
this refinery only operated for 2 years and it stopped operating in early 2018 due to lack of
refinery raw material supply.
Crude oil for refinery input in 2021 is 300 million barrels from domestic production and
import. Besides crude oil, oil refinery input also needs gas and intermedia. After being
processed, oil refinery will produce gasoline, diesel oil, fuel oil, kerosene, avtur, avgas and
other refinery products (non fuel) such as LPG, lubricant, naptha, and others. Oil refinery
production in 2021 reached 255 million barrels and non fuel refinery production reached 41
million barrels.
2.10.2 LPG Refinery

Currently, Indonesia’s LPG refinery capacity is 4,740.3 million to per annum but only 3,878.5
million ton per annum that is still operating until 2021. The details of LPG refinery and its
capacity are resumed in Table 2.3.

Table 2.3 Indonesia LPG Refinery Capacity 2021
Capacity
LPG Refinery (Million Ton per Annum)
LPG Refinery (Oil refinery) 1,331.0

PT Pertamina (Dumai) 68.0
PT Pertamina (Plaju) 131.0
PT Pertamina (Cilacap) 318.0
PT Pertamina (Balikpapan) 91.0
PT Pertamina (Balongan) 548.0
PT TPPI 175.0
Upstream LPG Refinery 2,342.0
PT Badak NGL 1,000.0
PT Chevron* 90.0
PT Petrogas 14.0
PT Petrochina 600.0
PT Conoco Philips* 525.0
PT Saka Indonesia 113.0
Downstream LPG Refinery 1,067.3
PT Pertamina (P.Brandan)* 44.0
PT Maruta Bumi Prima* 17.0
PT Medco LPG Kaji* 73.0
PT Pertamina (Mundu) 37.0
PT Titis Sampurna 73.0
PT Sumber Daya Kelola (Tugu Barat)* 7.0
PT Bina Bangun Wibawa Mukti 55.0
PT Surya Esa Perkasa 82.0
PT Yudhistira Haka Perkasa* 44.0
PT Wahana Insannugraha 37.0
PT Media Karya Sentosa phase I* 58.0
PT Media Karya Sentosa phase II 84.0
PT Yudistira Energi 58.0
PT Gasuma Federal Indonesia 26.0
PT Pertasamtan Gas 259.0
PT Sumber Daya Kelola (Losarang)* 3.8
PT Arsynergy Resources 109.5
Total Capacity 4,740.3
Total Operating Capacity 3,878.5
Source: Oil and Gas Statistics Semester I 2021
Note: (*) Stop operating

2.10.3 LNG Refinery
At present, Indonesia’s LNG refinery capacity is 31.2 million ton per annum. The details of
LNG refineries and their capacity is summarized in Table 2.4.
Table 2.4 Indonesia LNG Refinery Capacity 2021
LNG Refinery Capacity (Million Ton per Annum)
PT Arun LNG* 12.9
PT Badak 21.6
PT BP 7.6
PT Donggi Senoro 2.0
Total Capacity 44.1
Total Operating Capacity 31.2

Source: Oil and Gas Statictics Semester I 2021
Note: (*) Stop operating
In October 2014, PT Arun’s LNG refinery stopped operating due to the unavailable gas
supply from Arun gas field. This refinery, located in Lhokseumawe, Aceh is then transformed
into regasification terminal by Pertamina through PT Perta Arun Gas to meet the gas supply
for industry and electricity. Total LNG production in 2021 from these three fields is 14,712.2
thousand metric ton. Most LNG is exported especially to China, Korea, Japan and Taiwan
based on long-term contract reaching 416,691 thousand MMBTU in 2021 or only 23% of LNG
is used for domestic need, especially to meet the demand from power sector.
2.10.4 City Gas Network

From 2009 to 2021, a natural gas distribution network for households (city gas) to connect
799 thousand households (SR) has been built from the State Budget and Non-State
Budget. Specifically in 2021, 127 thousand household connections have been installed in 21
regencies/cities throughout Indonesia. As shown in Picture 2.28, the development of natural
gas network infrastructure in 10 years has reached 17 provinces in all regions of Indonesia,
with the most networks being built in East Java (25.4%) and South Sumatra (19.5%), in
accordance with the availability of natural gas sources.

Number of Household Connection Installed (SR)
0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 180,000
East Java
South Sumatra
West Java
East Kalimantan
North Kalimantan
Aceh
Jambi
Riau
North Sumatra
Lampung
Banten
Central Java
South Sulawesi
DKI Jakarta
Central Sulawesi
Riau Islands
West Papua
Source: Oil and Gas Statistics Semester I 2021 and presentation by Directorate General of Oil and Gas
Picture 2.28 Gas Network for Household Infrastructure Built by

The Government per Province
2.10.5 Power Plant

Until the end of 2021, Indonesia’s total power plant capacity is 75 GW, consisting of 71
GW on grid power plant and 3 GW off grid power plant. This capacity shows that additional
power plant capacity is almost doubled in the last 10 years as shown in Picture 2.29. Power
plant is still dominated by coal which contributes almost half of the total national capacity.
Gas follows with the contribution of 28%. Meanwhile, NRE based-power plant is only 15%. It
gives additional 6 GW in the last 10 years.

80 75
73
70
70 65
62
58
60 53 55
51
50 45
40
GW
30
20
10
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Coal Gas Oil NRE Total
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.29 Power Plant Installed Capacity per Energy Type 2012-2021
The use of NRE in electricity generation is dominated by hydropower (57%), geothermal

(20%), and biomass (18%), as shown in Picture 2.30. Meanwhile, the utilization of solar
power, both on grid and off grid, has only reached 225 MW.
14
12 12
10 10
10
10 9
9
9
8
GW
7 7
6 6
0
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Hydro PP Geothermal PP Wind PP Solar PP Bioenergy PP Hybrid PP TOTAL NRE PP
Source: HEESI, 2021
Picture 2.30 NRE-Based Power Plant Installed Capacity 2012-2021
Power plant infrastructure is spread in all areas in Indonesia, but only 63% of power plant
capacity is built in Java-Bali region (Picture 2.31). Meanwhile, power plant capacity is only
20.2% in Sumatra, 7.1% in Kalimantan, 8.5% in Sulawesi, and 3.9% in Nusmapa region from
the total national installed capacity. This statistic shows that power plant infrastructure has
not been developed evenly.

50
45
45
40
35
30
GW
25
20
15
15
10
5 6
5 3
-
Sumatra Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusmapa
Picture 2.31 Power Plant Capacity per Region 2021
2.11 ENERGY POLICY
2.11.1 Oil and Gas

State oil and gas exploitation is regulated in Law of the Republic of Indonesia number 22 of
2001 on Oil and Gas, or often referred to as the Oil and Gas Law. In its implementation, there
are several derivatives of the Oil and Gas namely Government Regulation No. 34 of 2005
on Oil and Gas Upstream Business Activities, Government Regulation No. 30 of 2009 on Oil
and Gas Downstream Business Activities, and Presidential Regulation No. 36 of 2018 on the
Implementation of Oil and Gas Upstream Business Activities Management.
Currently, the Oil and Gas Law is being discussed by the House of Representatives for
revision through the formation of the Oil and Gas Law Draft. The drafting of this Law is
intended to amend Law No. 22 of 2001 which was annulled by the Constitutional Court 10
years ago. One of the main issues in the Oil and Gas Law is the establishment of a definitive
institution to replace the Special Task Force for Upstream Oil and Gas Business Activities
(SKK Migas).
Another issue is the amendment in the 10% participating interest for Regional Owned
Enterprises (ROE). The amendment is the obligation of ROE to seek financing capital or
find partners to establish companies in the management of the oil and gas business. In
addition, the issue to include the cost recovery system in the Oil and Gas Law Draft was also
discussed. It is an effort not to regulate cost recovery in derivative regulations so that the
change of government and ministers will not change policies.

2.11.2 Coal
Indonesia’s mineral and coal mining activities are regulated in Law of the Republic of
Indonesia Number 3 of 2020. This Law is an amendment to the previous legal basis, namely
Law of the Republic of Indonesia No. 4 of 2009 on Mineral and Coal Mining. Some of the
issues that become points of amendments in the revision of the Law include the following:
1. Intersectoral Problem Solving
Several sectors have authority that overlaps with the Ministry of Energy and Mineral
Resources, such as smelter licensing and mining designations in forest areas.
2. Conception of Mining Legal Area
The new regulatory revisions have accommodated mining investigation and research
activities in all Indonesian jurisdictions.
3. Adjustment of Licensing Nomenclature and Withdrawal of Authority
In the previous regulations, the form of mining business only includes: IUP, IPR, and IUPK.
Meanwhile, the new regulation includes more detailed provisions in the implementation
of mining businesses based on a Business Licensing from the Central Government.
The types of licenses include: IUP, IUPK, IUPK as Continuation of Contract/Agreement
Operation, IPR, SIPB, Assignment License, Transportation and Sales License, Mining
Services Business License, and Mining Business License for Sales. In addition, it also
regulates the licensing authority that can be delegated to the Regional Government.
4. Increasing Mineral Value Added and Development and/or Utilization of Coal
In the new regulation, there are additional obligations for ‘processing and/or refining’
in mineral and rock mining, as well as ‘development and/or utilization’ in coal mining.
In addition, there are also additional detailed provisions on cooperation partners in
processing and refining activities.
5. Strengthening the Implementation of Reclamation and Post-mining
The new regulation has accommodated the provisions on the obligation to carry out
reclamation and post-mining as well as the criminal sanctions.
6. Licensing Period for Integrated IUP or IUPK
The new regulation has added provision on licensing period for IUP/IUPK that have been
integrated with processing and/or refining facilities.
7. Accommodating the Constitutional Court’s Decision on Law No. 4 of 2009.
In the new regulation, there are changes/adjustments to the clause regarding the mining
area set by the central government after being determined by the provincial government,
as well as the abolition of the minimum area of Exploration WIUP.
8. Continuation of KK/PKP2B Operations
In the new regulation, there are additional provisions regarding contract extension
guarantees, efforts to increase state revenue, utilization of goods obtained during the
PKP2B implementation period that have been designated as state assests, as well as the
obligation of Production Operation IUPK holders to carry out domestic coal development/
utilization activities.

2.11.3 Renewable Energy
The government continues to create a conducive ecosystem for the development of NRE
in Indonesia, including preparing and improving the regulatory framework. This year, on 13
September 2022, President Joko Widodo has just issued Presidential Regulation No.112
of 2022 on the Acceleration of Renewable Energy Development for the Power Supply. In
general, this Presidential Regulation mandates the acceleration of the construction of
low-emission and environmentally friendly power plants as well as the prohibition of the
construction of new Coal Fired Power Plants (Coal Fired PP), without disturbing existing
plants. Through this Presidential Regulation, it is hoped that it can help increase investment,
accelerate the achievement of renewable energy targets, as well as reduce greenhouse gas
emissions.
Based on Presidential Regulation No.112 of 2022, the construction of power plants will be
carried out selectively and the construction of NRE-based power plants is targeted to be
carried out hand in hand. The development of new Coal Fired PP is prohibited except for
Coal Fired PP which has been stipulated in the Electricity Supply Business Plan (RUPTL)
prior to the enactment of this Presidential Regulation or for Coal Fired PP that meets the
following requirements:
1. Integrated with industries built to increase natural resources value added or industries
included in National Strategic Projects that have major contributions to job creation and/
or national economic growth.
2. Committed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at least 35% (thirty five percent) within a
period of 10 (ten) years since the operation of the Coal Fired PP compared to the average
Coal Fired PP emissions in Indonesia in 2021 through technology development, carbon
offsets, and/or Renewable Energy mix.
3. Operating no later than 2050.
Meanwhile, the Presidential Regulation No.112 of 2022 regulates several things regarding
the mechanism for the use of renewable energy in the electricity sector, such as: the purchase
price of electricity, the implementation of the purchase of electricity, the Electricity Sales and
Purchase Agreement, and the role of the government related to new and renewable energy
such as support, fostering, and supervision. In addition to the electricity purchase tariff, the
implementation of the purchase of electricity is also regulated, which can be done in two
ways, namely through direct appointment or direct election. This Presidential Regulation also
stipulates provisions related to incentives, both fiscal and non-fiscal. The fiscal incentives
can be in the form of income tax facilities, import facilities, land tax facilities, geothermal
development facilities, and/or support for financing and/or guarantee facilities. Then, non-
fiscal incentives can be in the form of incentives provided by both the central government
and/or regional governments.
In addition to the Presidential Regulation, the Government is currently finalizing the draft
of the New Energy and Renewable Energy Law, or often abbreviated as the EBET Law. In

the future, the EBET Law is expected to become a legal umbrella for renewable energy
development that can provide legal certainty, harmonize relevant laws and regulations,
strengthen institutions and governance of renewable energy development, create a
conducive investment climate for renewable energy investors, and optimize renewable
energy resources to support industrial development and national economy
Meanwhile, technical rules regarding its utilization are still regulated in separate legal
products according to each type of energy. Some of these regulations include:
1. Law No. 21 of 2014 on Geothermal;
2. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 32 of 2008 on Provision,
Utilization and Trading of Biofuel as Other Fuels;
3. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 44 of 2015 on the Electricity
Purchase from Municipal Waste PP by PLN;
4. Presidential Regulation No. 47 of 2017 on the Provision of Energy-Saving Solar Lamps
(LTSHE) for Unelectrified Community;
5. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 50 of 2017 on the Utilization of
NRE Sources for Power Supply;
6. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 41 of 2018 on the Provision and
Utilization of Biofuel (Biodiesel Type);
7. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 4 of 2020 on Utilization of
Renewable Energy Sources for Power Supply;
8. Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Regulation No. 26 of 2021 on Rooftop Solar
Power Plants Connected to the Power Network of Power Supply for Public Interest
License Holder.

3
ENERGY OUTLOOK
PROJECTION
2022-2032
3 ENERGY OUTLOOK
PROJECTION 2022-2032
3.1 FINAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION
Energy demand in each scenario is influenced by economic growth, population growth and
policies taken during the projection period. In the next ten years, final energy demand in the
BaU scenario is projected to grow by an average of 4.8%, while the final energy demand in
the OPT scenario grows at a higher average of 6.6% per year. The difference between the
two scenarios is influenced by the program of electric vehicles and the use of biofuels in the
transportation sector which is higher in the OPT scenario. Meanwhile, in the household sector,
the assumption of LPG stoves to city gas and electricity substitution in the OPT scenario is
greater. Energy demand in each scenario in 2032 is described in Picture 3.1.
Commercial Industry Transportation Others Household Total
300
248
250
207 22
3
MILLION TOE
200 22
3 91
150 123
88
21
100 2
49 122
50 79
44
- 8 22 22 15 10
BaU OPT BaU OPT BaU OPT
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.1 Final Energy Demand per Sector until 2032
In 2021 the largest share of final energy consumption was from the transportation sector,
but in 2032 in the OPT scenario, the largest share will shift to the industrial sector (49.2%).
This is influenced by higher growth in the industrial sector in the OPT scenario, to pursue the
vision of Indonesia Onward in 2045.

Based on type of energy, fuel becomes the biggest energy source in 2021 with 52.1% followed
by electricity with 18.2%, gas with 11.8% and coal with 10.1%. Meanwhile, NRE share in final
energy consumption is only 7.9% as seen in Picture 3.2.
10%
18%
12%
8% 123
Million TOE
52%
Coal Gas Oil NRE Electricity
Picture 3.2 Final Energy Share per Energy Type 2021
There is no significant change in energy use substitution in BaU scenario. Thus, in 2032 the
biggest energy demand is still from fuel (50.1%). In OPT scenario, the role of fuel declines
into 35.6% due to substitution policy from fuel to gas, electricity and biofuel. Meanwhile,
NRE share increases into 10.2% due to the use of biogasoline and the increasing use of
biodiesel. The complete overview of final energy demand share per type of energy in 2032
is presented in Picture 3.3
Coal Gas Oil NRE Electricity Total
300
248
250
207
MILLION TOE
60
200
37
25
19
150 123
22 88
100 10 104
50 64 43
21
15 26 31
- 12

2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.3 Final Energy Demand per Energy Type until 2032

3.1.1 Final Energy Consumption per Sector
3.1.1.1 Industrial Sector

Coal, gas and electricity become the biggest energy sources consumed in industrial sector.
Meanwhile, NRE (biomass) is mostly used for food as well as pulp and paper industry.
Several food industries still use biomass (charcoal and wood) as fuel, while pulp and paper
industry use renewable energy such as oil palm shells, rice straw, biogas and black liquor to
substitute coal. Fuel is only used for power supply back up.
Industrial sector has not developed innovation plan on energy substitution, except biodiesel
program that has been implemented in all sectors and biomass to coal substitution in several
pulp & paper industry. Energy demand projection in industry based on two scenarios is seen
in Picture 3.4.
140
122
120
28
100
MILLION TOE
79 7
80 14
12
5
60
44 14 41
40 7
3 21
8
20 14
26 31
12
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.4 Final Energy Demand in Industry per Energy Type
In 2032 the largest energy consumption in the industrial sector will be gas and coal. Gas is
mainly used in the petrochemical industry including fertilizers (as feedstock), ceramics and
metal industries. While coal is mainly used in the cement industry, pulp and paper industry
as well as food industry. Based on the type of industry, there are 6 categories of industries
that consume the most energy can be found in Picture 3.5.

10.9%
26.7%
34.3%
7.7%
20.5%
Food & Beverage Textile Chemical Non Metal Metal
Picture 3.5 Energy Demand Share of the Six Biggest Industries in BaU Scenario 2032
3.1.1.2 Transportation Sector

In 2021, energy consumption in transportation reached 49 million TOE and became the biggest
consuming sector compared to the other sectors. Around 89.4% of final energy consumption
in transportation is from fuel, while the rest 10.5% is from biofuel (biodiesel) and only 0.1%
is from gas and electricity. Currently fuel consumption still highly depends on import. If this
condition is not anticipated, it will burden the state and influence trade balance. Therefore,
the government is reducing fuel import especially gasoline through substitution to biofuel
(biodiesel and biogasoline), CNG and battery based-electric vehicle. The use of EV is higher
in OPT scenario than in BaU scenario. Thus, fuel consumption is lower since it is replaced by
electricity, CNG and biofuel. Energy consumption projection in transportation sector per type
of energy is presented in Picture 3.6.
Gas Fuel Elecricity Biofuel Total
100 88 91
90
11 16
80
2
MILLION TOE
70 12
60 49
50
5
40 75
30 63
20 44
10
0
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.6 Energy Demand in Transportation in Both Scenario
In 2032, the use of biofuels in transportation, especially in OPT scenario, will reach 17.3%
with the increase in the use of biodiesel to B40 and biogasoline to E5. Meanwhile, electricity

consumption in transportation is projected to increase to be around 12 million TOE (13.2 %)
in the OPT scenario and only 2 million TOE (2.6%) in the BaU scenario. Thus, the use of fuel
is only 69.5% in OPT scenario and 84.5% in BaU scenario of the total final energy demand in
the transportation sector.
3.1.1.3 Household Sector

Energy demand in household sector is also influenced by the increasing number of households.
In 2032, energy use in household sector in BaU scenario is dominated by electricity (50.8%),
LPG (44.0%), biomass (3.9%), and the rest is natural gas and kerosene. Meanwhile, in OPT
scenario, electricity demand in 2032 will reach 55.6% of total energy demand in the household
sector, while LPG demand will be 33.7% and natural gas will be 6.1%. Efforts to reduce LPG
imports with LPG to electricity and gas substitution program will reduce LPG demand from
9.9 million TOE in 2021 to 7.6 million TOE in 2032 . The overview of final energy demand in
household sector is shown in Picture 3.7.
Electricity Gas Kerosene LPG Biomass Total
25 22 22
21
0.9 0.9
20
0.8
7.6
9.9
MILLION TOE
15 9.7
0.1
0.1 1
0.4 0.1
10 0.1
11 12
5 10
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.7 Energy Demand in Household Sector per Energy Type
The largest energy consumption growth in household sector in the OPT scenario is natural
gas at 27.3% per year along with the increase in the city gas program and followed by
electricity at 2.3% per year due to the electric stove substitution program. On the other hand,
LPG growth experiences a decrease with the growth of -2.3% per year.
3.1.1.4 Commercial Sector

In 2021, total energy consumption in commercial sector from hotel, mall, hospital and
office reached 8 million TOE consisting of 72.2% of electricity, 7% of biodiesel, 3.4% of LPG,
0.1% of gas and 17.3% of fuel (diesel). Until 2032, energy demand in commercial sector is

projected to increase from 8 million TOE in 2021 into 15 million TOE (BaU) and 10 million TOE
(OPT). Energy demand in OPT scenario is lower as it is assumed that there is energy saving
in equipment and building, including hotel and mall (Picture 3.8).
LPG Fuel Biofuel Electricity Gas Total
16.0 15
14.0 0.02
12.0
10
10.0
MILLION TOE
11 0.02
8
8.0
0.01
7
6.0
6
4.0 1
0.8
2.0 0.6 3
1
1
- 0.3 0.6 0.7
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.8 Energy Demand in Commercial Sector per Energy Type
3.1.1.5 Other Sectors

Other sector consists of three sub-sectors, namely agriculture, mining and construction.
Energy consumption in other sectors in the two scenarios is not much different, around 3
million TOE in 2032 with the projected demand for each type of energy as shown in Picture 3.9.
Electricity Fuel Biofuel Total
3.5
3.1
3.0
3.0
0.6 0.9
2.5
2.0
MILLION TOE
2.0
0.4
1.5 1.8 1.7
1.0 1.2
0.5
0.5 0.5
0.3
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.9 Energy Demand in Other Sectors per Energy Type

3.1.2 Final Energy Consumption per Energy Type
3.1.2.1 Fuel
Total fuel consumption in BaU scenario grows by an average of 5.1% per year, so that fuel
consumption in 2032 will reach 93 million TOE. Meanwhile in OPT scenario, fuel demand
grows slower by 3% so that it will increase to 80 million TOE in 2032, in line with the more
optimistic substitution of fuel vehicles to electricity and biofuels. The demand for all types
of fuel increases except for the use of kerosene in the household sector that is projected
to decrease to 0.015 million TOE at the end of the projection year as shown in Picture 3.10.
Commercial Household Transportation Others Industry Total
100 93
90 80
14
80 2
14
70
2
54
MILLION TOE
60
50 7
1
40 75
63
30
44
20
10 0.1
0.4 0.1
- 1 3 1
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.10 Fuel Consumption per Sector in BaU and OPT Scenario
3.1.2.2 LPG
LPG demand in 2032 will grow by 0.6% per year (BaU) but decreased by 1.41% per year in
OPT scenario. At the end of the projection, LPG demand will reach 11 million TOE (BaU) and
9 million TOE (OPT) as shown in Picture 3.11.
Commercial Industry Household Total
12.0
11
10
10.0
9
8.0
MILLION TOE
6.0 10
10
8
4.0
2.0
0.2 0.4
0.1
0.3 0.6 0.7
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.11 LPG Consumption per Sector

Around 95.6%, LPG consumption in 2021 will be used for household sector. By 2032, LPG
share is projected to decrease to 92.1% (BaU) and 87.6% (OPT).
3.1.2.3 Gas
The industrial sector is the biggest natural gas user, while only 1% of natural gas is used in
the household, transportation and commercial sectors.
In OPT scenario, natural gas demand is projected to increase by an average of 10.3% per
year to reach 43 million TOE, while in BaU scenario it will grow even lower at 3.4% and reach
21 million TOE in 2032 as shown in Picture 3.12.
BaU OPT
45 43
40
35
MILLION TOE
30
25
21
20
15 15
15
10
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.12 Gas Consumption per Scenario
3.1.2.4 Coal
Coal demand in industrial sector grows by an average 7.0% per year in BaU scenario, reaching
26 million TOE in 2032. Meanwhile, in OPT scenario which is assumed to have high growth
in industrial sector, coal demand will increase to 31 million TOE or growing at an average of
8.8% per year as shown in Picture 3.13.
35
31
30
26
25
MILLION TOE
20
15 12
10
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.13 Coal Consumption in Industrial Sector

3.1.2.5 Bioenergy
Final energy consumption of bioenergy includes biodiesel, biogasoline, biogas and biomass.
In 2032 in BaU scenario, bioenergy demand grows by an average of 6.3% per year into 19
million TOE. Meanwhile, in OPT scenario, bioenergy demand grows higher with an average
of 9.2% per year into 25 million TOE. In OPT scenario, the higher growth in bioenergy demand
is influenced by B40 and E5 programs starting in 2030.
In 2032, the largest share of bioenergy demand will come from the transportation sector,
namely 59.3% (11 million TOE) in BaU scenario and 61.6% (16 million TOE) in OPT scenario.
The overview of fuel consumption by sector can be seen in Picture 3.14.
Commercial Industry Household Transportation Others Total
30
25
25
0.9
19
20
MILLION TOE
0.6
16
15
11
10
10
0.4 0.9
5 0.9
5
7
0.8 5
3
0.6 1.1 0.8
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.14 Bioenergy Consumption per Sector
3.1.3 Final Energy Consumption per Region

In 2021, the largest share of final energy consumption was in Java and Bali (52.7%) and
Sumatra (18.0%). However, in 2032 the share of final energy in Java-Bali begins to decline
to 45.7% (BaU) and 48.3% (OPT). On the other hand, the share of final energy in Sulawesi
and Nusmapa in 2021 was 9.9% and 5.5%, respectively. In 2032, final energy demand is
projected to increase, so that its share will increase to 10.7% (BaU) and 11.2% (OPT) for
Sulawesi region. Meanwhile, Nusmapa’s share will increase to 10.4% (BaU) and 8.5% (OPT)
due to the relatively high industrial growth in eastern Indonesia. The overview of energy
consumption by region can be seen in Picture 3.15.

Nusmapa Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Sumatra Total
300
248
250
207 47
200
42 28
MILLION TOE
22 33
150
123
27
22
100
12
17 120
95
50
65
21 21
- 7
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.15 Final Energy Consumption per Region
3.2 ELECTRICITY CONSUMPTION
3.2.1 National Electricity Consumption per Sector

The total of electricity demand including electricity consumption for several smelter
industries in 2032, is projected to increase to 433 TWh in the BaU scenario, and 702 TWh in
the OPT scenario.
The largest share of electricity demand in 2021 comes from household sector around 43.6%,
followed by industry 29.3%, commercial, 25.4%, other sectors 1.5%, and transportation
around 0.2%. The share of electricity consumption in 2032 specifically in the OPT scenario
will change, so the largest share will shift to the industrial sector around 46.6%, followed
by transportation 19.7%, household 20.7%, commercial 12.1%, and others sector 0.9%.
There is an increase in the share of electricity consumption in industrial and transportation
sectors along with the planned new industrial areas, especially outside Java as well as the
use of electric vehicles which has been echoed since 2022 through an appeal to the use
of electric vehicles as official vehicles for the central and regional governments as well as
the increasing use of electric vehicles in public transportation such as online transportation,
buses, and taxis. The projection of electricity demand by sector for each scenario is shown
in Picture 3.16.

Others Household Commercial Transportation Industry Total
800
702
700
600
327
500
433
TWH
400
143
300 261 138

27
76
200 124 85
0.4
66
133 145
100
114
- 4 6 6
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.16 National Electricity Demand per Sector
3.2.2 Electricity Consumption per Region

The largest total electricity demand in 2021 was in Java and Bali at around 69.9%. It is
projected that the share will remain the same until 2032 in BaU scenario, while in OPT
scenario the share will decrease to 64.4%. Meanwhile, the lowest electricity consumption
was in the Nusmapa region at 4.8% in 2021 and 4% (2032). A complete overview of electricity
consumption per region is shown in Picture 3.17.
800
702
700
137
600
39
500 433 45
TWH
400 74
19
261
300 19
42 452
200 12
12 305
100 182
- 12 16 29

2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.17 Electricity Consumption per Region

3.3 ELECTRICITY
3.3.1 Power Plant Capacity

Power plant capacity in 2032 will increase by 4.6%, and 8.2% respectively (average per year)
reaching 125 GW (BaU) and 182 GW (OPT). In the same year for BaU scenario, the largest
power plant comes from coal (53%), followed by gas (22.6%), NRE (21.2%), and fuel. On the
other hand, in OPT scenario, the utilization of NRE-based power plants will reach around
28.5%, despite that the share of coal is still around 40.8%, and the share of gas is 30.7%. This
is a step to maintain electricity supply by using clean energy (gas) as shown in Picture 3.18.
Coal NRE Fuel Gas Total
200 182
180
160
56
140 125
0
120
28
GW
100 52
77 4
80 27
60 23
5
40 12
66 74
20 37
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.18 Power Plant Capacity per Scenario
NRE power plant capacity in BaU scenario in 2032 will increase with an average annual
growth of 7.9% into 27 GW, while in OPT scenario it will increase with an average annual
growth of 14.7% into 52 GW. In OPT scenario, Solar PP capacity will experience the highest
growth compared to other power plants. The capacity of Solar PP in OPT scenario in 2032
will reach 25 GW or 48.3% of the total NRE power plant capacity. Meanwhile, the share of
Hydro PP (including Micro PP and MHP) will be around 21.8% (11 GW), Bioenergy PP will be
around 18.7% (10 GW), and Geothermal PP will be around 10.8% (6 GW). The development
of power plant capacity in BaU and OPT scenarios can be seen in Picture 3.19.

Solar Other NRE Geothermal Bioenergy Wind Hydro Total
60
52
50
11
40 0.2
10
GW
30 27
6
20 11
12 0.2
3 25
10
7 6
0.2
2 6
2
-
0 BaU OPT BaU OPT BaU OPT
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.19 NRE Power Plant per Scenario
3.3.2 Power Plant Capacity per Region

In 2021, the largest power plant capacity was in Java-Bali region of 44,924 MW (58.6%), and
Sumatra 15,051 MW (19.6%) while the remaining 16,636 MW was in Kalimantan, Sulawesi
and Nusmapa regions. In 2032 the power plant capacity in Java-Bali region will increase to
77,831 MW (BaU) and 102,201 MW (OPT). The share of power plant capacity in Sumatra
region will increase to 22,603 MW (BaU) and 31,657 MW (OPT). Meanwhile, the share of
power plant capacity in Nusmapa region will only reach 7,178 MW (BaU) and 7,842 MW
(OPT). A complete overview of power plant capacity per region is shown in Picture 3.20.
Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusmapa Sumatra Total

200,000
181,922
31,657
160,000
7,842
125,143 10,072
30,149
120,000
22,603
MW
7,178
76,611 9,572
80,000 7,959
15,051
3,645
7,560 102,201
40,000 5,431 77,831
44,924
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.20 Power Plant Capacity per Region

The total capacity of NRE power plants in 2021 reached 11,531 MW, with the largest share in two
regions namely Java-Bali of 4,615 MW (40%) and Sumatra of 4,373 MW (37.9%). Meanwhile,
the remaining 2,543 MW was in Sulawesi of 1,683 MW (14.6%), Kalimantan of 719 MW (6.2%),
and Nusmapa of 141 MW (1.2%). In 2032, the capacity of NRE power plants is projected to grow
by 7.9% in BaU scenario and 14.7% in OPT scenario. They will reach 26,558 MW and 51,902 MW,
respectively. The capacity of NRE power plant in Nusmapa region will grow higher than the other
regions. In 2032 it will be around 1,661 MW. A complete overview of NRE power plant capacity
per region can be seen in Picture 3.21.

51,902
50,000
13,044
40,000
4,322
30,000 26,558 9,198

MW
7,921
20,000
4,326
11,531
2,451 23,678
10,000 4,615
9,707
1,683
719
4,373
141 2,153 1,661
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.21 NRE Power Plant Capacity per Region
3.3.3 Electricity Production

Electricity production in 2032 will increase to around 489 TWh (BaU) and 791 TWh (OPT),
taking into account the 10% loss in transmission and distribution.
Based on the type of power plant, the share of coal-fired power plant production in 2021
is around 65.5%, and it will increase to around 75.1% in 2032 for BaU scenario. However, in
OPT scenario, the share of electricity production from coal will drop quite significantly to
around 48.9% in 2032.
In OPT scenario, the development of power plants is directed at optimizing NRE power
plants, especially increasing Solar PP and optimizing coal cofiring by around 10% starting
in 2030. In addition, future power plant development is also directed at substituting fuel to
NRE or gas, so that the share of fuel in 2032 will be only about 1%. The diesel PP still exists,
but it is prioritized for 3T area (Outermost, Remote and Disadvantaged Areas) that are not
reached by other energy. The electricity production per type of energy for both scenarios can
be seen in Picture 3.22.

Coal Gas Fuel NRE Total
900
791
800
700
264
600
489
7
500
TWH
134
115
400 0.38
301 7
300
46
6
52
200 367 386
100 197
-
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.22 Electricity Production per Energy Type
Electricity production from NRE plants in 2032 will be 115 TWh (BaU) with the largest share
coming from Hydro PP, Geothermal PP, Bioenergy PP, and Solar PP. Meanwhile, in the
same year, electricity production in OPT scenario will be around 264 TWh with the largest
production share from Bioenergy PP at around 114 TWh (43.1%), and Solar PP production
will be around 66 TWh (25%). The cheaper price of electrical components from Solar PP
and the solar-rooftop program in commercial buildings and luxury homes as well as Energy
Saving Solar Lamps (LTSHE) allow for faster Solar PP penetration. The projected electricity
production from NRE power plants can be seen in Picture 3.23.
Hydro Geothermal Solar Wind Bioenergy Total
300
264
250
114
200
TWH
150 0.5
115
66
100 26
0.5
11
46 39 39
50
11
0.2 0.1 44
16 39
- 19
2021 2023 2025 2032
Picture 3.23 Electricity Production from NRE Power Plant

3.4 PRIMARY ENERGY SUPPLY
3.4.1 National Primary Energy Supply

Primary energy supply grows on average of 5% in BaU scenario and 7.8% in OPT scenario that
it will reach 332 million TOE (BaU) and 446 million TOE (OPT). At the end of the projection
year, the share of coal still dominates at 44.4% (BaU) and 35.7% (OPT). Meanwhile, the share
of NRE in OPT scenario is projected to increase to 28.4% as a result of the use of biomass
(NRE) to reduce coal use and increase the use of biofuels. The projection of the primary
energy mix in 2032 in both scenarios can be seen in Picture 3.24.
17.1%
28.4%
Coal 35.7%
BaU 44.4% OPT
Gas
332 Oil
446
Million TOE Million TOE
30.1% NRE
19.2%
8.3% 16.7%
Picture 3.24 Primary Energy Mix in Both Scenarios in 2032
3.4.2 Primary Energy Supply per Region

In BaU scenario, the largest share of NRE primary energy in 2032 is projected to be in Sumatra
region at around 28.6%, followed by Kalimantan region at around 24.4%. Meanwhile, the
smallest share of NRE is in Java-Bali region at around 11.6% which is influenced by the
presence of coal-fired power plants, which are mostly located in the island of Java.
In OPT scenario, the largest share of NRE primary energy is in Kalimantan region at 43.3%,
followed by Sumatra region at around 38.3%. The potential for NRE power plants, especially
hydro PP, which are quite large in both regions also have an effect on increasing the NRE
mix. A complete overview of the share of primary energy supply per region in 2032 is shown
in Picture 3.25.

Coal Gas Oil NRE
100%
11.6%
90% 18.9% 17.0% 15.9%
24.4% 24.3% 22.0%
28.6%
80% 38.3%
43.3%
25.1% 17.4%
70% 26.3%
18.1% 20.3%
35.9%
60% 7.5%
41.9% 1.1% 23.0%
37.6% 19.0% 13.6%
50% 17.0%
4.7% 24.8%
40%
15.8%
30% 9.8% 55.9% 55.7%
19.2% 16.0% 44.1%
20% 40.4% 40.6% 43.7%
24.0% 26.8%
10%
14.5% 15.8%
0%
Sumatra Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Numapa Sumatra Java-Bali Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusmapa
BaU OPT
Picture 3.25 Primary Energy Supply per Region 2032
3.5 ENERGY INDICATOR
3.5.1 Electricity Consumption per Capita

In 2025 the electricity demand per capita in both scenarios (BaU & OPT) are 1,285 kWh/
Capita and 1,517 kWh/Capita respectively. It is still below the electricity target per capita
in National Energy Policy of 2,500 kWh/Capita in 2025. Meanwhile in 2032 electricity
consumption per capita will reach 2,722 kWh/Capita in OPT scenario and only 1,704 kWh/
Capita in BaU scenario. The projection of electricity consumption per capita for each scenario
is shown in Picture 3.26.
2,900 2,722
2,500 2,401
kWh/Capita
2,100
1,700 1,517
1,704
1,566
1,214
1,300 1,123
1,285
1,169
900
2021 2022 2025 2030 2032
BaU OPT
Picture 3.26 Electricity Consumption per Capita

3.5.2 Primary Energy per Capita
Similar to electricity consumption per capita, primary energy supply per capita increases
accordingly in line with the trend of economic growth. Primary energy per capita in 2021 is
0.7 TOE/capita and is projected to increase in 2025 to 0.8 TOE/capita (BaU) and 0.9 TOE/
capita (OPT). The projection of primary energy per capita in 2025 is still far from KEN target
of 1.4 TOE/capita in 2025 as shown in Picture 3.27.
1.60 1.5
1.4
1.40
TOE/Capita
1.20
1.00 1.1
0.9 1.0
0.80 0.7
0.7
0.8
0.60
2021 2022 2025 2030 2032
BaU OPT
Picture 3.27 Primary Energy per Capita
3.5.3 CO2 Emission
Total emissions in 2032 are projected to increase to 1,015 million tons CO2eq (BaU) and
1,108 million tons CO2eq (OPT). The emission target of the two scenarios is lower than the
emission target in the energy sector NDC, which is 1,355 million tons CO2eq in 2030. The
development of GHG emissions in the two scenarios per sector can be seen in Picture 3.28
below.
1,200
1,108
1,100
977
1,000
Million Ton CO2eq
1,015
900
918
800
724
700 645
608 719
600 644
500
2021 2022 2025 2030 2032
BaU OPT
Picture 3.28 Carbon Emission in Both Scenarios

GHG emissions per capita are projected to increase to 3.4 million tonnes of CO2eq (BaU)
and 3.7 million tonnes of CO2eq (OPT) as shown in Figure 3.29 below.
3.9 3.7
3.5
3.5
Ton CO2eq/Capita
3.4
3.1
3.1
2.7 2.6
2.3
2.2 2.5
2.3
1.9
2021 2022 2025 2030 2032
BaU OPT
Picture 3.29 GHG Emission per Capita
The resume of several energy indicators based on Presidential Regulation on National

Energy Policy is shown in Table 3.1.
Table 3.1 Energy Indicator per Scenario
Current BAU OPT

Energy Indicator Unit
2021 2025 2032 2025 2032
Primary energy
Million TOE 208 237 332 254 446
supply
Primary Energy
Mix
Batubara 40% 41% 44% 38% 36%
%
Oil 33% 32% 30% 27% 19%
Gas 14% 11% 8% 16% 17%
NRE 12% 16% 17% 19% 28%
Electric
kWh/Capita 1,123 1,285 1,704 1,517 2,722
consumption
Primary Energy
TOE/Capita 0.7 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.5
Consumption
Million ton
Emission 608 719 1,015 724 1,108
CO2 eq
Emision Per Capita Ton CO2 eq/ 2.2 2.5 3.4 2.6 3.7
Capita

3.6 COMPARISON OF PRIMARY ENERGY MIX AS THE RESULT OF
PROJECTION AND RUEN
In accordance with Government Regulation No. 79 of 2014 on National Energy Policy, by

2025 the primary energy mix is targeted to reach at least 23% of NRE, less than 25% of oil,
at least 30% of coal, and at least 22% of gas. In more detail, RUEN projects the condition of
the primary energy mix every year in order to achieve the National Energy Policy target. The
comparison of the primary energy mix projection for BaU and OPT scenarios when compared
to RUEN is shown in Picture 3.30 below.
12.3% 16.3% 18.6% 23%

14.4% 11.0%
16.4%
25%
33.4% 31.6%
27.4%
22%
39.9% 41.1% 37.6%

30%
2025 2025 2025

2021 BaU OPT RUEN
Coal Oil Gas NRE
Picture 3.30 Comparison of Primary Energy Mix Projection 2025
The graph shows that from the projection results, both in BaU and OPT scenarios, only
coal is expected to reach the target of KEN-RUEN in 2025. Meanwhile, NRE is still quite far
from the target. It is estimated that NRE mix in 2025 will only reach 16.3% in BaU scenario
and 18.6% in OPT scenario considering that NRE target in 2021 has only reached 12.2%.
However, this condition is quite good considering that NRE mix continues to increase every
year. In addition, in OPT scenario, it is projected that NRE target can exceed RUEN projection
in 2031 as shown in Picture 3.31. In line with Indonesia’s commitment to reduce emissions,
it is expected that the growth in NRE use can be further increased to meet Net Zero Emission
target by 2060.

30% 28.4%
26.1%
25% 23.0% 26.4% 26.6%
20% 18.6%
14.5%
15% 17.4% 17.1%
16.3%
12.3%
10% 12.3%
5%
0%
2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
BaU OPT RUEN
Picture 3.31 Comparison of NRE Mix Projection 2021-2032
3.7 REGIONAL ENERGY PROJECTION 2032
As an improvement of the previous publication, Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 does not
only project national energy, but also estimates the energy condition per region until 2032.
The results of energy projection per region in 2032 are shown in Table 3.2 for BaU scenario
and Table 3.3 for OPT scenario. Overall, until 2032 Indonesia’s energy supply-demand is
estimated to still be concentrated in Java-Bali region, followed by Sumatra region. This is in
accordance with the distribution level of population, industry, and infrastructure. Likewise,
in terms of NRE development, Java-Bali is projected to still be the region with the highest
NRE use despite that Sumatra region has the largest percentage.
Table 3.2 Energy Projection per Region 2032 in BaU Scenario
Energy Indicator Unit Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusmapa

Final energy
Million TOE 95 42 27 22 21
consumption
Electricity production TWh 344 84 22 21 18
Power plant capacity GW 78 23 8 10 7
Primary energy supply Million TOE 174 62 33 28 26
Primary energy mix
 Coal % 55.9% 24.0% 14.5% 40.4% 55.7%
 Gas % 7.5% 9.8% 19.2% 4.7% 1.1%
 Oil| % 25.1% 37.6% 41.9% 35.9% 26.3%
 NRE % 11.6% 28.6% 24.4% 18.9% 17.0%
CO2 Emission Million
608 164 74 83 87
TonCO2 eq

Table 3.3 Energy Projection per Region 2032 in OPT Scenario
Energy Indicator Unit Java-Bali Sumatra Kalimantan Sulawesi Nusmapa

Final energy
Million TOE 120 47 33 28 21
consumption
Electricity production TWh 509 154 51 44 33
Power plant capacity GW 102 32 30 10 8
Primary energy supply Million TOE 244 86 50 39 28
Primary energy mix
 Coal % 40.6% 26.8% 15.8% 44.1% 43.7%
 Gas % 17.0% 15.8% 16.0% 13.6% 23.0%
 Oil| % 18.1% 19.0% 24.8% 20.3% 17.4%
 NRE % 24.3% 38.3% 43.3% 22.0% 15.9%
Million Ton
CO2 Emission 657 186 87 102 77
TonCO2 eq
3.8 ENERGY PROJECTION 2022-2023
3.8.1 Final Energy

The level of energy consumption by the community continues to improve after the strike
of Covid-19 pandemic in early 2020. As shown in Picture 3.32, in 2022 final energy
consumption is projected to reach 130 million TOE and continues to reach 137 million
TOE in 2023 or increases 10.8% from 2021. Thus, final energy consumption in 2023 has
already exceeded final energy consumption in 2019 (before the Covid-19 pandemic). Final
energy consumption in 2023 will still be dominated by transportation sector, up to 43% of
the total energy demand. The main factor in increasing of the final energy consumption in
transportation sector is the recovery of economic and industrial activities after Covid-19.
Household Commercial Industry Others Transportation Total

137
140 130
123
120
MILLION TOE
100
80
60
40
20
-
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.32 Final Energy Projection per Sector 2022-2023

From the type of energy, the higest growing energy is NRE. Until 2023, NRE is estimated
to increase by 15% compared to the base year. This is supported by the increasing use of
biodiesel especially in transportation sector. Meanwhile, the increase in coal consumption
in the last 3 years is projected to reach 13.8% which is influenced by its use in industrial
sector, especially in cement and smelter industries. The projected final energy consumption
by energy type in details can be seen in Picture 3.33.

137
140 130
123
120
100
MILLION TOE
80
60
40
20
-
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.33 Projection of Final Consumption per Energy Type 2022-2023
Meanwhile, Picture 3.34 shows the level of energy consumption by each region. Until 2023,
the largest final energy will still be in Java-Bali and Sumatra reaching 51.3% and 18.7% of the
national total. Meanwhile, consumption in the other 3 regions (Kalimantan, Sulawesi, and
Nusmapa) are only around 13.6%, 10.2% and 6.1%, respectively.
160
137
140 130
123
120
MILLION TOE
100
80
60
40
20
-
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.34 Final Energy Projection per Region 2022-2023

3.8.2 Power Plant
On transformation side, the development of power plant continues to be boosted. Until 2023,
there will be additional 11 GW of power plants. As shown in Picture 3.35, power plants with a
total of 88 GW in 2023 will still be dominated by coal-fired PP (48.5%) and gas PP (29.4%).
Meanwhile, NRE power plants are estimated to contribute 16.7% or around 15 GW of power
plant capacity in 2023, mainly supported by hydro PP (49.7%) and geothermal PP (17.2%).

88
90 84
77
75
60
GW
45
30
15
-
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.35 Projection of Power Plant per Energy Type 2022-2023
Based on location, the largest power plant capacity is in Java-Bali and Sumatra, which is
estimated to reach 56.3% and 20.7% in 2023. Meanwhile, the smallest power plant capacity
is in Nusmapa Region at 6.2%. The details of power plant projections per region can be seen
in Picture 3.36 below.
100,000
88,238
83,888
76,611
80,000
60,000
MW
40,000
20,000
0
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.36 Projection of Power Plant Capacity per Region 2022-2023

3.8.3 Primary Energy
To meet the energy demand, it is also necessary to ensure the availability of energy supply.
As shown in Picture 3.37, the level of energy supply is projected to grow by around 11.4%
from 2021 to 2023. Fossil energy is still the largest source of energy, mainly coal and oil,
which are estimated to reach 42.3% and 31.3% respectively of the total supply. However, the
highest growth in primary energy supply comes from NRE, which is around 34.8%, supported
by the use of biofuels and the use of NRE in the power generation sector.
240 217
206
195
200
MILLION TOE
160
120
80
40
-
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.37 Projection of Primary Energy Supply 2022-2023
In percentage, in 2023 the energy mix is projected to consist of 14.8% of NRE, followed by
42.3% of coal, 11.6% of gas, and 31.3% of oil as shown in Picture 3.38. As a reference, in
2023, RUEN projects a mix of 18% of NRE, 33% of coal, 23% of gas, and 26% of oil. More
efforts are needed to encourage the utilization of gas and NRE to be in line with the plan
(RUEN).
Coal Gas Oil NRE
100%
12.3% 14.3% 14.8%
90%
80%
70% 33.4% 31.0% 31.3%
60%
50% 14.4% 12.0% 11.6%
40%
30%
20% 39.9% 42.7% 42.3%
10%
0%
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.38 Projection of Primary Energy Mix 2022-2023

Based on projection per region, the largest supply of primary energy is in Java-Bali and
Sumatra regions at 57.6% and 18% respectively. Meanwhile, Nusmapa’s primary energy
supply is only around 5.6%. The primary energy projection per region in more detail can be
240 217
206
195
200
MILLION TOE
160
120
80
40
-
2022 2023
2021 BaU
Picture 3.39 Projection of Primary Energy Supply per Region 2022-2023
3.8.4 Emission
CO2 emissions in energy sector in 2023 are projected to continue to increase to 671 million
tons CO2eq in line with the increasing use of fossil energy, especially in the industrial,
transportation and power plant sectors. In 2023, emissions from electricity generation
activities will reach 343 million tons CO2eq or equivalent to 51.1% of total emissions.
Meanwhile, the industrial sector contributes 16.2% of total emissions. In more detail, the
projected emissions by sector can be seen in Picture 3.40.
700 671
644 Industry
608
600
Others
500
Transportation
MILLION TON CO2EQ
400
Household
300
Commercial
200
Power Plant
100
Emisi Fugitive
26 26 26
-
2022 2023 Total
2021 BAU
Picture 3.40 Projection of Energy Emission per Sector 2022-2023

Java-Bali region is the largest emission contributor, around 416 million tons of CO2eq or
equivalent to 62% of national emissions. This is in line with the large number of power plant
and industrial developments. This condition is in the contrary to condition in Kalimantan,
Sulawesi, and Nusmapa, each of which produces emissions of no more than 10% as can be
720 671
644
608
630
MILLION TON CO2 EQ
540
450
360
270
180
90
-
2022 2023
2021 BAU
Picture 3.41 Projection of Energy Emission per Region 2022-2023

4
NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY
AND
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMS
4 NATIONAL ENERGY
SECURITY AND
SUSTAINABLE ENERGY
DEVELOPMENT
PROGRAMS
4.1 ELECTRICITY FOR RURAL AREAS AND ENERGY SUPPLY FOR

OUTERMOST, REMOTE AND DISADVANTAGED AREAS
As an archipelago country with vast area and high population, access to energy for people
especially in rural areas as well as in outermost, remote and disadvantaged areas is a
challenge for the Government of Indonesia. Many ways and strategies have been taken to
supply energy to rural areas as well as to outermost, remote and disadvantaged areas to
give a just development. The problem of limited energy sources, especially in outermost,
remote and disadvantaged areas, is caused by several factors, one of which is the distance
from the village/area which is quite difficult to reach. The difficulty of access and mobility to
outermost, remote and disadvantaged areas has an impact on increasing investment costs
for energy infrastructure development, both network and power plant.
Based on MEMR data in 2021, the national electrification ratio reached 99.45%. It means
around 0.55% people are not yet electrified. Meanwhile, electrified ratio in rural areas in
2020 reached 99.62%. It means that there still 316 unelectrified villages.
Electrified village is the number of villages which receive electricity from PLN, Non-PLN and
Energy Saving Solar Lamp. The Non-PLN electrified village is village which receives electricity
from regional government, private sector or self-subsistence that has been consolidated
and verified by Office of Energy and Mineral Resources in provincial government. To meet
the target of 100% electrification ratio, the government needs to allocate 12.02 trillion
Rupiah to fund infrastructure. Several strategies by MEMR to increase the electrification
ratio is to carry out grid extension massively to connect villages or households located near
PLN grid. The government will also build mini grid and NRE based power plant for people

living in remote areas. In addition, there is also plan to build Electricity Recharge Station
(SPEL) and Electrical Power Supply (APDAL) for people living scatteredly. Based on MEMR
performance realization 2021 and work plan 2022, the government planned to distribute
11,347 APDAL packages or known as electricity box in 2022 funded by State Budget and
PLN SPEL. The distribution of electrified village in 2021 is presented in Picture 4.1.
East
Jambi Kalimantan
Aceh
99.99% 99.99%
99.99%
100%
Electrification Ratio
100% Babel 100% Gorontalo
Notrth North
99.99% 99.99%
Sumatra
100% Kalimantan 100%
Electric Village Ratio
99.99% 99.98%
100% West North North Maluku
Riau Islands 100% Central
Riau Kalimantan Sulawesi 99.99%
99.99% 99.84% 99.93% Sulawesi 99.99% 100%
100% 100% 99.25% 100% West Papua
100%
100% 99.99% Papua
97.55% 95.24%
(45 Village) 95.09%
(271 Village)
Lampung
99.99%
100%
West Sumatra
99.88% Central Java
100% 99.99%
100% Central
Bengkulu KalimantanSouth
West Sulawesi
99.99% 96.22% Kalimantan South East Maluku
99.89% South
100% 100% 99.99% 92.44%
100% Sulawesi Sulawesi
100% 99.99% 98.49% 100%
South
Sumatra 100% 100%
Jakarta
99.58% 99.99%
100% 100%
DIY East Java
99.99% 99.06% NTB NTT
Banten 100% 100%
West Java 99.98% 88.81%
99.99%
99.72% 100% 100%
100%
100% Bali
100%
100%
Electrification Ratio Electric Village Ratio

Year
2021 99.45% 99.62%
Status: Validated in October 2021
Source: MEMR performance realization 2021
Picture 4.1 Realization of Electrified Villages Distribution 2021
In addition to the electrification program, the Government has also established the One-
Price Fuel program which has been running since 2017 in order to serve just energy
throughout Indonesia. This policy was motivated by the high fuel price difference in several
regions, especially in eastern Indonesia. The outermost, remote and disadvantaged areas
are the focus of the Government in implementing the One-Price Fuel program so that
affordable fuel prices can be accessed by people in rural areas and in the outermost, remote
and disadvantaged areas.
In order to support the program, the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources has stipulated
Ministerial Regulation No. 36 of 2016 on the Acceleration of One-Price for Certain Types
of Fuel and Designated Fuel Nationally to support this policy. This regulation mandates
Business Entity with fuel distribution license to establish distributor in certain locations

especially in areas where distributor of certain types of fuel and designated fuel has not
existed yet to let people buy fuel with retail price as stipulated by the government. One-
Price Fuel program is designed for Gasoline RON 88 (Premium) at the price of Rp 6,450 per
liter and diesel at the price of Rp 5,150 per liter with the total target of 331 locations in 2021
(total additional 78 one-price fuel distribution locations in 2021). MEMR sets the total target
of 423 One-Price Fuel locatios until 2022. The distribution of one-price fuel locations until
2021 is presented in Picture 4.2 below.
Cumulative until 2021: 331 Locations
Kalimantan
75 locations
Sumatra
Previous Price Sulawesi
56 locations IDR 8,000 - 40,000
31 locations Maluku & Papua
Previous Price
IDR 8,000 - 9,000 Previous Price 108locations
IDR 8,500 - 25,000
Previous Price
IDR 12,000 - 100,000
Java & Madura Bali NTB & NTT
3 locations 2 locations 56 locations

Previous Price Previous Price Previous Price
IDR 8,000 - 10,000 IDR 8,000 - 10,000 IDR 8,000 - 9,000
Source: Performance realization 2021 and 2022 Program KESDM
Picture 4.2 Distribution of One-Price Fuel until 2020
In gas supply side, the government is promoting the development of Mini LNG Terminal
for remote areas that are not covered by gas pipeline. Mini LNG Terminal in Sambera, East
Kalimantan becomes the pilot project of LNG for power plant. This terminal has been used
for Sambera Gas fired power plant, Kutai Kertanegara, East Kalimantan with the capacity of
2x20 MW. The development of this Mini LNG Terminal is based on the Ministry of Energy and
Mineral Resources Decision No.13 of 2020 on Assignment on LNG Supply and Infrastructure
Development and Fuel to LNG Conversion for Power Plant. This Ministerial Decision sets the
target to develop 52 LNG power plant with total capacity of 1.7 GW and total gas supply of
167 BBTUD. This program is expected to save 2.6 million Kilo Liter fuel. The gas infrastructure
development map can be seen in Picture 4.3.

Source: DG of Oil and Gas, 2021
Picture 4.3 Gas Infrastructure Development Map
4.2 CITY GAS NETWORK
To reduce imports of fuel oil and LPG which continue to increase, the Government is trying to
divert the fulfillment of energy needs with gas. MEMR has built a gas network for households
for the community for free. This natural gas distribution network development program for
households is built in cities or areas close to gas sources.
In 2021, the household gas network or city gas has connected 127,000 households. The
length of the gas pipelines that were successfully built in 2021 increased by 3,263.70 km
or 76.08% from the previous year. The addition was obtained from network development in
25 regencies/cities carried out by PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) and PT Pertagas Niaga
Through this program, people are expected to obtain a cleaner and safer fuel. Furthermore,
GSEN sets city gas, DME and electric stove program to stop LPG import by 2030.
The target of city gas network in RUEN in 2025 is to connect 4.7 million households. Based on
RUEN, city gas network in RPJMN 2020-2024 is targeted to connect 4 million households in
2024, but the first development in 2009-2021 has connected only 799 thousand households.
This number is far below the target due to budgeting issue. To give an overview, 1 household
connection costs 8-10 million Rupiah.

City gas for household is still funded by the State Budget. The government takes over the
project of city gas for households since it is considered as less interesting for business entity
due to minimum profit from the project. Concerning the limited state budget, the Public
Private Partnership (PPP) involving PT Pertamina and PT Perusahaan Gas Negara (PGN) is
being formulated.
4.3 PROMOTING ELECTRIC STOVE AS FOSSIL FUEL SUBSTITUTION
One of the efforts to reduce LPG imports is to substituted with an electric stove. To reduce
dependence on energy imports, the Government has launched several efforts to reduce
LPG consumption. In GSEN document, several programs to reduce LPG imports (including a
program to reduce LPG consumption) include: Development of City Gas Networks, Increase
in Production Capacity of New Oil Refineries, Development of Dimethyl Ether (DME) and the
use of electric stoves.
In contrast to LPG supply from imports, the electricity supply in Java-Bali, based on RUPTL
2021 data, shows that the installed capacity of power plants in Java-Bali is 41 GW, while
the peak load is 29 GW. There is a reserve margin above 30% in Java-Bali region. One of the
efforts to increase the growth of electricity consumption is by increasing the use of electric
stoves in Java-Bali. The estimated energy consumption for the use of an electric stove with
a power of 2,000 Watt based on a study by the Research and Development Center of the
Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources is around 82 kWh/month. Meanwhile, the number
of household customers in Java and Bali with a power of 1,300 VA and above is around 10.3
million with details as shown in Table 4.1 below.
Table 4.1 Details of PLN Customer in Java- Bali
West Yogyakarta
Customer Type Banten Jakarta and Central East Java Bali Total
Java
Java
R1 / 1300 VA 703,393 1,776,808 2,113,980 913,834 1,076,458 356,599 6,941,072

R1 / 2200 VA 184,514 612,357 572,898 293,191 328,576 138,488 2,130,024
R2 / 3500-5500 VA 76,101 360,279 193,741 112,246 148,194 78,769 969,330
R3 / 6600 VA 12,776 114,590 27,869 16,605 27,441 20,721 220,002
Source: DG of Electricity, 2021
If it is assumed that there is an additional use of electric stoves for 1 million household
customers per year, there will be an increase in electricity consumption of around 82 GWh or
414 MW. If all household customers with a power of 1,300 VA and above use electric stoves,
there will be an increase in electricity consumption of 841 GWh or an increase in load of 4.2
GW.

Based on GSEN projections, the total electric stove users by the end of 2030 will be 19 million
households. If the program in GSEN can be implemented, there will be no LPG imports in
2027. An overview of the GSEN Program related to reducing LPG imports can be seen in
Picture 4.4 below.
12 Mill. ton LPG equivalent 11.9

10.7
9.7
10
8.8
8.0
8
Electricity Stoves
6.2
6
4
Rich Gas
LPG Imported
2
Dimethyl Ether
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Picture 4.4 GSEN Program to Stop LPG Import
In 2022, the implementation of the electric stove program is targeted at around 300
thousand. Currently, a pilot project and 2,000 electric stoves program for each household
in Solo and Bali have been carried out. The package consists of an electric stove unit, a set
of cooking utensils, and an MCB to increase power. The estimated cost for the electric stove
program is 1.8 million per package. Thus, the total funds needed to distribute packages
to 300 thousand households are around Rp540 billion. It is hoped that the use of electric
stoves can increasing electricity consumption in Java-Bali. Based on calculations, the use of
electric stoves is estimated to absorb 4.2 GW from an excess supply of 12 GW.
4.4 THE DEVELOPMENT OF ELECTRIC VEHICLE
The government has regulated the use of electric vehicle in Presidential Regulation No. 55
of 2019 on Acceleration of Baterry-based Electric Vehicle for Land Transportation. This
Presidential Regulation sets the duties of related ministries in the area of infrastructure
development, research and development, regulator, and 35% local content component.
To promote this Presidential Regulation, the government through Ministry of Industry has
formulated roadmap of electric vehicle development as set in Ministerial Regulation No.
27 of 2020. In this Minister of Industry Regulation, the target of electric vehicle in 2030 is
627 thousand units, while electric motorcycle is 9 million units. Currently, the Ministry of
Industry is coordinating with Coordinating Ministry of Maritime and Investment to amend
Minister of Industry Regulation No. 27 of 2020 on roadmap of battery-based electric vehicle.

Meanwhile in GSEN, there are programs to reduce fuel import through gas fueled vehicle,
the use of biofuel, and the use of battery electric vehicle. In 2030, the target is 2 million
units of electric car and 12 million units of electric motorcycle. The battery electric vehicle
program is expected to stop fuel import before 2030 as shown in Picture 4.5 below.
2,000 Thousand boepd
1,600
EV
Import Biofuel
1,200 Diesel
Diesel Production
800
400
Gasoline Production
Dimethyl Ether
0
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
Picture 4.5 GSEN Program to Stop Fuel Import
4.5 PREPARING ENERGY TRANSITION
Energy transition is done through transformation of fossil fuel using clean technology,
acceleration of new and renewable energy use, and energy conservation. Energy
transformation into Net Zero Emission is expected to create energy independence, energy
resilience, sustainable development, climate resilience and low carbon condition.
Utilization of fossil fuels such as coal using clean technology is carried out by developing
CCT (Clean Coal Technology). CCT is the use of high-efficiency technology in coal fired
PP to reduce emissions from several pollutants and waste, as well as increase the energy
from each ton of coal. Meanwhile, oil and gas as well as coal use CCUS (Carbon Capture,
Utilization, and Storage) technology.
The Indonesian government has developed Ultra Super Critical (USC) technology in coal
fired PP starting with the construction of Java-7 coal fired PP located in Serang (Banten) in
2017. In 2021, there are several USC coal fired PP under construction including Java 9 & 10
coal fired PP, Central Java (Batang) coal fired PP, and Java 4 (Tanjung Jati B) coal fired PP.

In 2020, the Government of Indonesia has conducted a feasibility study for the CCUS Pilot
Project in Gundih Oil and Gas field, Central Java. The total CO2 reduction potential in this pilot
project is projected to be 2.92 Million Tons over 10 years. PT Pertamina also has a roadmap
for the implementation of CCUS for 7 locations related to natural gas oil production, namely
in Subang, Cilamaya, Jatibarang, Merbau, Jambaran Tiung Biru, Natuna and Matindok. The
location has been studied and is planned to be implemented no later than 3 years from now.
Indonesia itself has large geological storage resources that have the potential as CCUS
locations in Java, Sumatra, and Kalimantan. Feasibility studies are also being carried out in
these areas to develop CCUS technology.
The acceleration on new renewable energy use is done by substituting primary energy and
final energy to biofuel, co-firing technology, fuel source from Refuse-Derived Fuel (RDF)
and Solid Recovered Fuel (SFR), additional NRE power plant capacity with the focus on
Rooftop solar PP, and non electricity NRE and non-biofuel utilization such as briquete,
biogas and Compressed Biomethane Gas (CBG).
Through the use of battery-based electric vehicle, the battery industry and hydrogen
technology are also expected to support the acceleration of new renewable energy use. In
renewable energy sector, Smart Energy program optimizes renewable energy production
system by maximizing efficiency, reducing cost, and enhancing security. In electricity, Smart
Grid development is expected to reduce number of power plant needed to supply electricity
and to integrate renewable energy sources. Meanwhile, the technology being developed is
nuclear, coal gasification, liquified coal, tidal, hydrogen, and Carbon Capture Storage.
4.6 ENERGY SUBSIDY
The realization of fuel subsidy continues to decline despite of a significant increase in 2018
to 38.9 trillion Rupiah due to an increase in diesel oil subsidies. It decreased again in 2020
to 14.9 trillion Rupiah due to the Covid-19 pandemic. In 2021, it increased again by around
8.3% to 16.2 trillion Rupiah.
The realization of LPG subsidies in 2016 was 24.9 trillion Rupiah which continued to increase
until 2018 to 58.1 Trillion Rupiah. This increased LPG burden is another form of commitment
to shift the kerosene subsidy to clean energy. Meanwhile, in 2019 there was a decrease of
around 6.9% caused by the decline in gas prices on the world market. It continued to decline
in 2020 to 32.8 Trillion Rupiah due to the Covid-19 pandemic. However, in 2021 LPG subsidy
increased again by around 106.1% from the previous year to 67.6 trillion Rupiah.
Similar to the realization of fuel subsidies, the realization of electricity subsidies also fluctuated
from 63.1 trillion Rupiah in 2016 to 49.9 trillion Rupiah in 2021. The development of energy
subsidy realization in 2016-2021 can be seen in Picture 4.6 below.

Fuel LPG Electricity Total
180.0
153.5
160.0
133.7
140.0
118.5
TRILLION RUPIAH
120.0 106.8
97.6 95.7
100.0
80.0
60.0
40.0
20.0
-
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021
Picture 4.6 Development of Energy Subsidy 2016-2021
In early September 2022, the Government of Indonesia reduced fuel subsidy that it leads to the
increasing price of several types of fuel. Based on the explanation from the Minister of Finance,
this subsidy reduction was carried out because the burden of subsidies and compensation for
the energy sector in 2022 was very high, reaching 502.4 trillion rupiah. The energy subsidy
in 2022 is 208.9 trillion rupiah consisting of subsidy for fuel, LPG and electricity. Then
there is energy compensation in 2022 of 234.6 trillion rupiah and underpayment of energy
compensation in 2021 of 108.4 trillion rupiah.
4.7 THE ESTABLISHMENT OF NUCLEAR ENERGY PROGRAM IMPLEMENTING

ORGANIZATION (NEPIO)
Nuclear Power Plants (Nuclear PP) have various advantages over other power plants.
Nuclear power plants produce very large and reliable electricity. Nuclear power plants can
operate for two years non-stop without changing fuel. Nuclear power plants have various
types of technology, providing stable and large-scale electricity supplies ranging from 10
MWe to 1,600 MWe per unit. Nuclear power plants rely more on technological developments
(technology bases) compared to energy sources (resource bases) so that they do not
depend on the location of the nuclear fuel source. Nuclear power plants has the quality in
terms of environmental externalities. Nuclear power plants have very little environmental
impact with zero local emissions (SOx, NOx, and fly ash) and minimal global COx emissions.
With a small environmental impact, nuclear power plants also have the lowest mortality
percentage compared to other types of power plants. However, some countries are reluctant
to build nuclear power plants due to security and safety risks.
The presence of nuclear minerals in Indonesia is spread over 26 locations in Sumatra,

Kalimantan, Sulawesi, Maluku, and Papua. The estimate of uranium and thorium resources
have been carried out in 9 deposit locations. In 2021, the total uranium resources reached
89,483 tons of U3O8 (the heat generation value for this amount of Uranium is equivalent to

the heat generation by 1.85 Trillion tons of coal), while the total thorium resources reached
143,234 tons. Details of radioactive mineral resources in Indonesia can be seen in Table 4.2.
Table 4.2 Indonesia Radioactive Mineral Resources 2021

Resource
Measured Indi- Concessed Hypothetic Speculative

No. Potential Sector cated
U3O8 Th U3O8 U3O8 Th U3O8 Th U3O8 Th
1 Aloban-Sibolga 490
2 Singkep-Riau *2,840 * 1,298 * 433
3 Bangka Belitung *4,729 * 1,224 *10,361 *25,715 *111,298
4 Ketapang * 736 *4,767
5 Kalan-Melawai *2,394 * 5,903 *2,914 *5,058
6 Mentawa and Darab * 623 * 9,669
7 Katinga * 572 *2,261
Kawat-
8 * 17,861
Mahakam Hulu
9 Mamuju * 769 *3,424 *3,023 *3,138 * 8,393 *2,823
* 5,234 **4,729 *5,903 *4,796 **3,424 * 39,441 **20,960 * 34,108 **114,121
Total Measu- Measu- Indicated Indicated Measu- Hipothe- Hipothe- Specu- Specu-
red U red Th U U red Th tic U tic Th lative U lative Th
Total U3O8 *89,483
Total TH **143,234
Source: ORTN BRIN, 2021
Note: (*) Unit Ton U3O8
(**) Unit Ton Th
For countries that do not have nuclear power plants and intend to develop nuclear power
plants, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) highly recommends them to form a
Nuclear Energy Program Implementing Organization (NEPIO) as part of the government’s
commitment to nuclear energy development.
Therefore, in 2021 the Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources Decision No. 250.K/HK.02/
MEM/2021 on the Preparation Team for the Establishment of a Nuclear Energy Program
Implementing Organization has been issued.
4.8 HYDROGEN DEVELOPMENT PLAN
Hydrogen fuel is a zero emissions fuel that is used as fuel for electricity generation along
with oxygen by using a unit called a hydrogen fuel cell. Similar to a battery, a fuel cell has
an anode and cathode poles where hydrogen (H2) and oxygen (O2) are supplied to the two
different poles as shown in Picture 4.7 below.

Source: MEMR, 2021
Picture 4.7 Hydrogen Fuel Cell
Hydrogen can be produced through the following processes, including:

a. Gas Steam Reforming
In this process, the methane contained in natural gas is extracted and reacted with
steam to produce hydrogen. Around 95% of the hydrogen on the market is produced by
this process. This process can produce gray hydrogen and blue hydrogen if the carbon
produced is absorbed through Carbon Capture and Storage technology.
b. NRE Power Plant Electrolysis
The electrolysis process uses a device called an electrolyzer. The main concept in this
process is the separation of hydrogen molecules and oxygen from water by a reaction
caused by an electric current. If this process is carried out at an NRE power plant, green
hydrogen will be obtained.
c. Coal Gasification
In the gasification process, coal or biomass material is reacted with oxygen and steam to
produce synthesis gas. Then, the hydrogen molecules are separated from the synthesis
gas using a separation system. The coal gasification process will produce brown
hydrogen or blue hydrogen if the carbon produced is absorbed through Carbon Capture
and Storage technology.
d. Biological Process
Microbes such as bacteria and microalgae can produce hydrogen by biological reactions
using sunlight or organic matter. This technology is still at the research and development
stage.

The details of hydrogen production technology can be seen in Picture 4.8 below.
Source: BBPT, 2021
Picture 4.8 Hydrogen Production Technology
In Indonesia, hydrogen development is still in the research and pilot project stages and there
are no commercial projects yet. Research on hydrogen as a fuel has been carried out by the
Agency for the Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT), the University of Indonesia
(UI), the Bandung Institute of Technology (ITB) and Lemigas since 2007. Furthermore,
in 2012 ITB made the concept of a fuel cell car and the Korea International Cooperation
Agency (KOICA) provided a grant to the Indonesian government for the construction of a
fuel cell pilot project with a capacity of 300 kilowatts (kW) in Ancol, Jakarta. Then in 2014,
the Indonesian Association for Fuel Cell and Hydrogen Energy (INAFHE) was established to
accelerate the development of hydrogen in Indonesia. In 2017, PT Telkomsel developed a
fuel cell at the Base Transceiver Station (BTS) as backup power. After that, in 2018, BPPT
and Toshiba ESS signed a cooperation agreement regarding the Development of the H2One
Autonomous Hydrogen Energy System for Off Grid Systems. In 2019, the Ministry of Energy
and Mineral Resources, PT Kereta Api Indonesia (KAI) and Allstorm began collaborating
in the development of hydrogen-fueled trains. PT HDF Energi took the initiative to develop
green hydrogen from hybrid Solar PP and Wind PP in Sumba Island with a capacity of 7-8
MW during the day and 1-2 MW at night from hydrogen storage. In addition, there is also
cooperation between PT Pertamina and GIZ in the development of a green hydrogen pilot
project from geothermal energy.

To achieve the Net Zero Emission (NZE) target by 2060, the Government of Indonesia plans
to start developing hydrogen technology in 2030.
4.9 ENERGY CONSERVATION AND EFFICIENCY
The application of energy conservation and efficiency can reduce energy imports, maximize
energy use for domestic needs and reduce exports, increase Reliability, control energy
demand growth and encourage energy diversification by maximizing the use of NRE in
order to increase national energy security. On the other hand, energy conservation and
efficiency can increase economic growth and competitiveness because it can reduce energy
intensity, increase industrial competitiveness, reduce energy production costs to lead to
more affordable energy costs. Energy conservation and efficiency is also seen as a solution
to reduce the greenhouse gas emissions and address the climate change issue which is
very much needed to fulfill international obligations under the United Nations Framework
Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC).
An effective and efficient energy use management is aimed to produce maximum products
through structured and well-documented technical actions that it gives an impact on the
optimal use of raw materials and supporting materials. The systematic implementation
of Energy Management can be done through the implementation of ISO 50001-Energy
Management System. There are four main stages in ISO 50001-Energy Management
System, including:
a. Plan stage, namely to review energy and establish baselines, energy performance
indicators, goals, targets and action plans needed to provide results that will improve
energy performance in accordance with the organization’s energy policy
b. Do stage, namely to implement the energy management action plan
c. Check stage, namely to monitor and measure the processes and key characteristics of
operations that determine energy performance toward energy policies and objectives
and report the results
d. Act stage, namely to take action to continuously improve energy performance and Energy
Management System (ENMs)
In 2021, there will be five ISO 50001-certified buildings, namely The Agency for the
Assessment and Application of Technology (BPPT); Directorate General of New, Renewable
Energy and Energy Conservation, Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; Secretariate
General of the Ministry of Energy and Mineral Resources; Ngurah Rai Airport (PT. Angkasa
Pura I); and Terminal 3 Soekarno Hatta Airport (PT. Angkasa Pura II). In addition, there are
49 energy sector companies that have been certified to ISO 50001 consisting of 31 power
plants, 14 oil and gas fields, and 4 mining companies. On the other hand, there are also 78
industrial sector companies that have been certified to ISO 50001 consisting of 21 food and
beverage companies, 17 manufacturing companies, 6 textile companies, 14 agro and paper
companies, and 20 chemical companies.

In addition, there are energy efficiency activities in the use of LED Public Street Lighting
compared to HPS Public Street Lighting. LED Public Street Lighting only needs the power of
90 W, while HPS Public Street Lighting needs the power of 250 W. In 2021, it is estimated
that the energy savings obtained from the use of LED Public Street Lighting is 96 GWh or
equivalent to a savings in electricity costs of 141 billion Rupiah.
4.10 CONDITION OF NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY
Energy Security according to Article 1 point 10 of Government Regulation No. 79 of 2014 on

National Energy Policy (KEN) is defined as a condition of ensuring the availability of energy
and public access to energy at affordable prices in the long term while taking into account
the protection of the environment.
The condition of energy security is dynamic which is influenced by various strategic

environmental factors, both internal and external, including the development of energy
demand and supply, investment in energy infrastructure development, and the impact of
policies and regulations on the energy sector and related sectors. The dynamics of energy
security conditions need to be monitored regularly to identify the change in energy sector
development in order to ensure the sustainability of energy supply and use and support
the increase in value added of energy use for the national economy and people’s welfare
towards the targets in the National Energy Policy.
The assessment of Indonesia’s energy security has been carried out with an energy security
model using 4A aspects (Picture 4.9), namely Availability (availability of energy sources both
from domestic and abroad), Affordability (affordability of energy investment costs, ranging
from exploration, production and distribution costs to consumer affordability to energy
prices), Accessibility (ability to access energy sources, energy network infrastructure,
including geographic and geopolitical challenges), Acceptability (energy use that puts
concern on land, sea and air environments including public acceptance of nuclear, and
so on). It also uses weighting method using AHP (Hierarchical Process Analysis) and
assessment by experts. Since the assessment from 2004 to 2019, the scale of Indonesia’s
energy security value has always increased from year to year.
Energy security assessment is conducted to see Indonesia’s ability to provide energy in the
country through selected aspects and indicators during the previous one-year period.

ACCESIBILITY
Ability to access energy sources, energy

grid infrastructure, including geographic
and geopolical challenges
AFFORDABILITY
AVAILABILITY NATIONAL
The affordability of energy investment
Availability of energy sources, both ENERGY SECURITY costs, starng from the costs of
domesc and foreign exploraon, producon, and distribuon,
to the affordability of consumers to energy
prices
ACCEPTABILITY
Energy use that cares for the environment

(land, sea and air), including public
acceptance (nuclear and so on)
Source: Indonesia Energy Security, 2019
Picture 4.9 Energy Security Model
In order to enhance energy security in the future, it is necessary to make improvements in

every aspect and indicator, one of which is by realizing the existing programs in GSEN, such
as by: Accelerating the utilization of 38 GW of NRE power plants by 2035 (Solar PP and
other NRE); Increasing crude oil production up to 1 million bopd and acquisition of overseas
oil fields for refinery needs; Increasing the capacity of existing refineries and building new
refineries; Providing gas-based energy for industrial and transportation areas (such as
CNG); Increasing the use of battery-based electric vehicles; Optimizing biofuel production
(biodiesel or biohydrocarbons); Increasing the development of the city gas network;
Increasing domestic LPG production; Encouraging the use of electric stoves; Developing
DME production; Building gas transmission, LNG receiving terminal, and energy buffer
reserve infrastructure; Developing methanol, fertilizer & syngas production, as well as
synergy between coal mining and smelters; Building electricity transmission & distribution,
smart grid, off grid and nuclear power plants as needed and the establishment of the Nuclear
Energy Program Implementing Organization (NEPIO); Encouraging efficiency, energy
conservation and innovation in energy such as Hydrogen, NH3, CCS and CCUS.

5
CONCLUSION
AND
RECOMMENDATION
5 CONCLUSION AND
RECOMMENDATION
5.1. CONCLUSION
1. In 2032, final energy consumption of BaU scenario will increase with an average growth
of 4.8% per year to 207 million TOE, with transportation and industrial sectors are the
largest share of final energy consumption with 42.6% and 37.9% respectively. While in
the OPT scenario, final energy consumption in the next 10 years will increase by 6.6% per
year to 248 million TOE with the largest share coming from the industrial sector by 49.2%
and 36.4% from transportation, this growth were in line with targets towards developed
countries in 2045.
2. In 2021, household sector is the largest electricity consumption, but the situation would
change in 2032 OPT scenario, where both industrial and transportation sector are the
largest electricity consumers with 46.6% and 19.7% respectively, as a result of the high
energy demand growth in outside Java industry sector and the growing use of electric
vehicles since 2022.
3. Java-Bali region will still being the biggest consumer of final energy in 2032, around
45.7% (BaU) and 48.3% (OPT) shares from total final energy consumption. However, the
largest primary energy mix from NRE in 2032 in the BaU scenario is the Sumatra region
(28.6%), and in the OPT scenario is the Kalimantan region (43.3%).
4. The NRE share on primary energy mix will still below the RUEN target in 2025, around
16.3% in the BaU scenario and 18.6% in the OPT scenario. However, based on the OPT
scenario, in 2030 the NRE achievements will exceed the RUEN target, reaching 26.4%.
5.2. RECOMMENDATION
1. To achieve the NZE 2060 target, Indonesia must have high economic growth so that it can
become a developed country through growth in the industrial sector, especially outside
Java Island.
2. Massive use of NRE in the power generation sector need to be achieved, especially coal
co-firing PP and Solar PP as well as increasing the blend of biodiesel and bioethanol
utilization so that the achievement of the EBT mix in 2030 can exceed the RUEN target
and be in line with the NZE target in 2060.
3. Massive use of electric vehicles and electric stoves, especially in the Java-Bali region,
needs to be implemented immediately to absorb excess power/electricity.

ATTACHMENT
ATTACHMENT 1
OUTLOOK SUMMARY
Energy National Projection in BaU Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
Final Energy Million

1 130 137 143 150 157 165 173 181 189 198 207
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 269 281 293 306 321 337 354 372 391 412 433
Demand
Industrial
Sector Final Million
3 46 48 51 54 56 59 62 66 70 74 79
Energy TOE
Demand
Transportation
Million
4 Sector Final 53 56 60 63 67 70 74 77 81 85 88
TOE
Energy Demand
Household
5 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
Energy TOE
Demand
Commercial
Million
6 Sector Final 8 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 15
TOE
Energy Demand
Others Sector
Million
7 Final Energy 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3
TOE
Demand
Primary Energy Million

8 206 217 227 237 250 263 275 289 303 317 332
Supply TOE
Million
Green House Ton
9 644 671 700 719 765 802 838 877 918 968 1,015
Gas Emission
CO2
Power Plan
10 GW 84 88 91 96 102 107 111 115 119 122 125
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 310 322 335 348 365 383 402 422 443 465 489
Production

National Projection in OPT Scenario
No Energy Indicator Unit
2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032

1 130 138 147 156 166 178 190 203 218 232 248
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 280 305 333 365 400 440 483 532 587 642 702
Demand
Industrial Sector
Million
3 Final Energy 48 52 57 63 69 76 83 92 102 111 122
TOE
Demand
Transportation
Million
4 Sector Final 52 55 58 61 65 68 72 76 81 86 91
TOE
Energy Demand
Household Sec-
Million
5 tor Final Energy 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22
TOE
Demand
Commercial
Million
6 Sector Final 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 10
TOE
Energy Demand
Others Sector
Million
7 Final Energy 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3
TOE
Demand
Primary Energy Million

8 209 223 238 254 276 300 325 352 383 414 446
Supply TOE
Million
Green House Ton
9 645 671 699 724 774 824 872 927 977 1,042 1,108
Gas Emission
CO2
Power Plan
10 GW 84 91 97 104 112 123 133 144 157 169 182
Capacity
Electricity Pro-
11 TWh 322 350 380 414 454 499 548 603 664 725 791
duction

Energy Projection of Sumatra Region in BaU Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 24 26 27 29 31 32 34 36 38 40 42
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 44 46 48 51 53 56 59 62 66 70 74
Demand
Industrial
3 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 10
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 12 13 15 16 17 18 19 21 22 23 25
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 37 39 41 43 46 48 51 54 57 60 63
ergy Supply TOE
Million
Green House Ton
9 97 103 108 104 114 125 130 137 142 153 164
Gas Emission
CO2
Power Plan
10 GW 17 18 19 21 21 21 21 22 23 23 23
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 51 53 55 58 61 64 67 71 75 79 84
Production

Energy Projection of Sumatra Region in OPT Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 24 25 27 29 31 33 35 38 40 43 47
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 47 52 57 64 71 79 88 99 110 123 137
Demand
Industrial
3 7 7 8 9 10 11 12 14 15 17 19
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 12 12 13 14 15 15 16 17 19 20 21
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 37 40 43 47 51 55 60 65 72 78 86
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 99 106 114 115 129 142 151 161 165 174 186
Gas Emission Ton CO2
Power Plan
10 GW 17 18 19 21 21 22 23 24 27 29 32
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 54 59 65 72 80 90 100 112 125 139 154
Production

Energy Projection of Java-Bali Region in BaU Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 67 70 73 75 78 81 83 86 89 92 95
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 188 197 205 214 225 237 249 262 276 290 305
Demand
Industrial
3 19 20 21 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 30 32 33 35 36 37 39 40 41 43 44
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 120 125 130 135 142 149 155 161 168 175 182
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 400 416 433 449 476 494 516 540 563 588 608
Power Plan
10 GW 48 50 51 53 58 63 66 68 71 74 78
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 217 225 234 244 256 269 283 297 312 328 344
Production

Energy Projection of Java-Bali Region in OPT Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 68 72 75 80 84 89 94 100 106 113 120
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 193 207 223 241 263 288 315 345 379 414 452
Demand
Industrial
3 20 21 23 25 27 30 33 36 40 44 48
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 30 32 34 36 38 40 42 44 47 49 52
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 13 13 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 5 5
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 122 128 135 142 154 166 180 195 210 226 244
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 399 410 422 435 463 491 521 553 587 622 657
Power Plan
10 GW 48 50 52 54 61 68 74 81 88 95 102
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 222 237 254 273 299 326 357 391 428 467 509
Production

Energy Projection of Kalimantan Region in BaU Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 18 19 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 12 13 13 14 14 15 16 17 17 18 19
Demand
Industrial
3 11 11 11 12 12 12 13 13 14 14 15
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 32 33
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 51 53 55 56 59 60 63 64 67 70 74
Power Plan
10 GW 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 14 14 15 16 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Production

Energy Projection of Kalimantan Region in OPT Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 18 19 20 21 22 23 25 27 29 30 33
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 14 17 20 24 26 29 32 36 40 42 45
Demand
Industrial
3 11 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 19 20 22
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 6
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 22 24 27 29 32 34 37 41 44 47 50
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 53 56 58 63 64 65 67 69 73 80 87
Power Plan
10 GW 6 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 25 27 30
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 16 20 23 27 30 33 37 40 45 48 51
Production

Energy Projection of Sulawesi Region in BaU Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 13 14 15 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 12 13 13 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 19
Demand
Industrial
3 7 8 8 8 9 9 10 10 11 11 12
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 27 28
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 54 57 59 62 64 67 69 72 75 79 83
Power Plan
10 GW 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 14 15 15 16 17 17 18 19 20 21 21
Production

Energy Projection of Sulawesi Region in OPT Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 13 14 15 17 18 19 21 23 24 26 28
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 13 15 17 19 21 23 26 29 33 36 39
Demand
Industrial
3 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 15 16 17 19
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 17 19 20 22 24 26 28 31 34 36 39
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 55 59 62 66 70 74 79 84 89 96 102
Power Plan
10 GW 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 10 10 10
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 15 17 19 21 24 27 30 33 37 41 44
Production

Energy Projection of Nusmapa Region in BaU Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 8 8 9 10 11 13 14 16 17 19 21
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 15 15 15 16
Demand
Industrial
3 3 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 12 14
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 5 5 5
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 11 12 13 14 16 17 19 20 22 24 27
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 41 43 46 49 52 56 60 65 71 78 87
Power Plan
10 GW 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 14 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 17 18
Production

Energy Projection of Nusmapa Region in OPT Scenario
No Unit
Indicator 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032
1 8 8 9 11 12 13 14 16 18 19 21
Demand TOE
Electricity
2 TWh 13 14 16 17 19 20 22 24 26 27 29
Demand
Industrial
3 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 12 13 15
Energy De- TOE
mand
Transporta-
tion Sector Million
4 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Household
5 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Energy De- TOE
mand
Commer-
cial Sector Million
6 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
Final Energy TOE
Demand
Others
7 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2
Energy De- TOE
mand
Primary En- Million
8 11 12 13 15 16 18 19 22 24 26 28
ergy Supply TOE
Green House Million

9 39 41 43 45 48 51 55 59 64 70 77
Power Plan
10 GW 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 8
Capacity
Electricity
11 TWh 15 16 18 20 21 23 25 27 29 31 33
Production

INDONESIA ENERGY
OUTLOOK
2 0 2 2
ISSN 2527 - 3000

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ISSN 2527 - 3000

BUREAU OF ENERGY POLICY AND ASSEMBLY FACILITATION

I would like to appreciate the effort taken by the Secretariate General

The economic growth strongly influences the energy supply-

In this opportunity, allow me to convey my gratitude to Members of the National Energy

Jakarta, December 2022

Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources as

ii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook potrays the energy in Indonesia including

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 is jointly formulated by Members of

Jakarta, December 2022

Herman Darnel Ibrahim

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 iii

The energy supply and demand projection are conducted based on

In the effort to improve the quality of energy supply and demand

Jakarta, December 2022

iv Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

Secretary General of the National Energy Council

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 v

vi Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 vii

CHAPTER II NATIONAL ENERGY CONSUMPTION UNTIL 2021................................. 17

viii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

CHAPTER III ENERGY OUTLOOK PROJECTION 2022-2032..................................... 47

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 ix

CHAPTER IV NATIONAL ENERGY SECURITY AND SUSTAINABLE ENERGY

CHAPTER V CONCLUSION AND RECOMMENDATION............................................... 95

x Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

Picture 2.1 Final Energy Consumption per Sector 2012 – 2021.................................. 17

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 xi

Picture 3.1 Final Energy Demand per Sector until 2032.............................................. 47

xii Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

Picture 4.1 Realization of Electrified Villages Distribution 2021................................. 78

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 xiii

xiv Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

Indonesia Energy Outlook (IEO) which is published annually is a result of an analysis to

1.2.1 Modeling Analysis Framework

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 1

Macro Economy &

Final Energy Demand Analysist

Industry Transportation Household Commercial Others Non Energy

COAL NAT. GAS NRE ELECTRICITY FUEL

Energy Transformation Analysist

Primary Energy Supply Analysist

COAL GAS NRE OIL Others

Green House Gas Emission

Picture 1.1 Modeling Analysis Framework

2 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

1.2.2 Energy Projection Scenario

1.2.2.2 OPT Scenario

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 3

INDICATOR Unit BaU OPT

1.2.3 Energy-Related Policy Assumption

4 Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022

3. MEMR Strategic Planning

1.3 CURRENT ENERGY CONDITION

Indonesia Energy Outlook 2022 5

Source: HEESI, 2021