ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN

1-SCENARIO OF PAKISTAN ECONOMY:

UPDATE NEWS:
Pakistan GDP Annual Growth Rate 2022

· WDF President Ismat Shahjahan declared, “The country is

facing an imminent economic collapse due to capitalism,
financial imperialism, and prolonged proxy wars. Nothing
less than a progressive gender agenda would work,
including a decolonised and demilitarised economy and
state, a secular and democratic state and society,
progressive taxation, and urban and agrarian land reforms.
No society can progress without free education and
healthcare for all; we demand an end to privatisation and
huge subsidies for the elite.
· In Pakistan, services are the biggest sector of the economy
and account for 53 percent of total GDP. Within services the
most important segments are: public administration and
defence (18 percent of total GDP); wholesale and retail
trade (17 percent) and transportation (10 percent). Industry
accounts for 25 percent of GDP. Within industry, the
manufacturing segment represents 19 percent of GDP and
 mining and construction accounts for 5 percent. The
remaining 22 percent is contributed by livestock (11
percent) and fishing, forestry and agriculture (11 percent).
Actual Previous Highest Lowest Dates Unit
Frequency
· 3.94 -0.47 10.22 -1.80 1952 - 2021 percent
Yearly
· Pakistan gdp for 2021 was $346.34B, a 15.33% increase from
2020.
· Pakistan gdp for 2020 was $300.31B, a 6.42% decline from
2019.
· Pakistan gdp for 2019 was $320.91B, a 9.89% decline from
2018.
· Pakistan gdp for 2018 was $356.13B, a 4.99% increase from
2017
· As of FY22, the nominal GDP of Pakistan stands at US$376
billion with a nominal GDP per capita of US$1,658 (177th
worldwide); its GDP based on PPP stands at US$1.512
trillion with a GDP (PPP) per capita of US$6,662 (168th
worldwide). [4] Pakistan is a developing country [36] [37]
[38] with a semi-industrial economy
· May 19, 2022 · Pakistan’s GDP at current market prices has
 reached Rs66.949 trillion in 2021-22, resulting in an increase
in per capita income from Rs268,223 in 2020-21 to
Rs314,353 in 2021-22
· Flaterning GDP growth had made it difficult for Pakistan to
service debt of 274billion dollars, which was nearly 79% of
pakistan's GDP in FY2022

The end of zerocovid in China has lowered the chance that

supply chains will gum up. However, its rebound is not an
unalloyed good for the rest of the world, which has an
inflation problem, not a shortage of spending. China’s extra
imports will add
more fuel to overheated economies. Europe’s gas storage is so
full in part because China’s demand for liquefied natural gas
in
2022 was 20% below its usual level. Demand is now likely to
bounce back, which could cause prices to surge once again
next
winter. Only when the twin foes of overheated labour markets
and the energy crisis have been vanquished will the world
economy be out of the woods.
“In 1991, the population had increased another 50 percent, to 118
million, and the general economic conditions did not look as good as in
1977. In 1989, the USA pulled out all aid, citing the fact that Pakistan
was developing a nuclear bomb. Bhutto began the bomb project in
1971 after the loss of East Pakistan and suspicion that India was
developing a bomb. As long as the U.S. needed Pakistan to fight the
Russians in Afghanistan, the USA ignored the bomb issue.(BOOK
REFERENCE: The making of pakistan)

The data issued by the State Bank of Pakistan on Monday showed that
the CAD declined by 46.8pc in July-October FY23 compared to $2.821
billion against $5.305bn in the corresponding period last year. The
imports of goods and services fell to $23.688bn in 4MFY23 against
$26.808bn in 4MFY22. However, exports of goods and services rose
slightly to $9.825bn compared to $9.576bn in the same period last year.
According to SBP data, the trade deficit also narrowed by almost 23pc
to $11.604bn in the first four months of 2022-23 against $15.059bn in
the corresponding period last year. The sharp contraction in CAD seems
to have eased pressure on the government which has been struggling to
build the country’s exchange reserves not enough to cover eight weeks’
imports. However, the situation regarding the inflows from friendly
countries looks static, particularly after a delay in talks with the IMF.The
SBP’s foreign exchange reserves stood at $8bn and will further decline
with the payment of $1bn against the maturity of Sukuk (Islamic bonds)
on Dec 5.
EXAMPLES WORLDWIDE:
MIDDLE EAST EYE: How has Lebanon avoided total collapse? Farah
Choucair 12 January 2023 12:45 UTC | Last update: 1 week 5 days ago

According to the UN, the term “resilience” is defined as “the ability of a

system, community or society exposed to hazards to resist, absorb,
accommodate to and recover from the effects of a hazard in a timely
and efficient manner”. It has used this concept in relation to the survival
tactics used by Lebanese people during times of hardship. But more
recently, this concept has been challenged within the Lebanese
community, as people realise that by showing “resilience” to conditions
that are flagrantly unacceptable, they can sustain and stabilise a toxic
state of governance.

United against the failure of Saied’s regime to solve the nation’s

economic problems and its compliance with the IMF’s dangerous
demands, Tunisians will once again rise to try and save their democracy
and ensure that they remain able to put food on their tables. Another
Tunisian uprising is in the making.The views expressed in this article are
the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect Al Jazeera’s editorial
stance. BY HAYTHEM GUESMII IN 30 JAN 2023)

South Korea, South Africa(0.2 to 4.1), Australia(3.4 to 5.9), Mexico(2.4

to 4.3), and United states increase their GDP rate from 2021 to 2022

· other countries like Argentina, Brazil, Canada, China, Euro area

France, Germany, Indonesia, India(13.5 to 6.3), Italy, Japan,
Nathreland, Russia,Saudi arabia, Singapore, Spain(7.6 to 4.4),
Switzerland, Turkey(7.7 to 3.9), United Kingdom(4 to 1.9) falls in
their GDP compare to last year.

SRI LANKA says it will cutarmy personnel to 135000 by next year and
100000 by 2030 it slashes military by a third to cut costs( al jazeera 13
jan 2023)

The risk is that this leaves Britain’s businesses in a funk. The challenge
of boosting investment highlights a circularity noted by Giles Wilkes of
the Institute for Government, another think-tank: investment is both a
cause and a consequence of a healthy economy. It is both a product of
robust demand and a driver of stronger supply. That means even the
best-intentioned policies can be derailed bY external shocks. Another
awkward truth is that investing more for tomorrow means consuming
less today—a particularly tough trade-o when other costs are biting
sharply. , India is now the world’s fth biggest economy, taking Britain’s
spot. The gap between the two will only widen in 2023, reckons the imf
The un now thinks that China’s working-age population could decline by
10% by 2035 and by almost 30% by 2050, relative to its current level.
Between 2010 and 2020 no less than 40% of all the natural gas
discovered worldwide was found in Africa. As a result, the continent
now holds 13% of the world’s natural-gas reserves.
ARTICLE BY MIFTAH ISMAIL

The boom-and-bust cycle of our economyis precisely because we run

into a current account deficit every time we try to achieve growth. (The
fact that we remain poor is due to our low productivity) In Pakistan’s
case we have always had current account deficits (except for three out
of 75 years),There was a time in the 1950s when Pakistan’s exports
were more than South Korea’s and a time in the 1990s when our
exports were more than Vietnam’s. Today, South Korea’s and Vietnam’s
exports are 18 times and six times more than Pakistan’s
respectively.When Gen Pervez Musharraf imposed martial law in 1999,
our exports were 16 per cent of GDP. When General Sahib at long last
left, our exports had decreased to 12pc of GDP. the Benazir Income
Support Programme, the PPP should get the credit that it increased
exports to 13.5pc of GDP. Next came the PML-N and whereas it did solid
work in building energy and transport infrastructure and ushering in
CPEC, our exports declined by a debilitating 38pc to only 8.5pc of GDP
and we ran the second-largest current account deficit in our history.Last
year,(2021) our imports were $80 billion and exports only $31bn. if
there are 2.2 million shops in Pakistan and only 30,000 pay income tax,
is it not fair to ask them to pay just Rs3,000 per month?HOOK:At the
risk of sounding an alarm, I have to say that we have no room left for
error.The writer is a former finance minister.(Published in Dawn,
November 27th, 2022)

The South Asian region is anticipated to grow by 5.5pc and 5.8pc in

2023 and 2024, respectively — slightly 0.3pc to 0.7pc lower than earlier
estimates — mainly because of supporting 6.6pc and 6.1pc GDP growth
in India. “This pace reflects still robust growth in India, Maldives, and
Nepal, offsetting the effects of the floods in Pakistan and the economic
and political crises in Afghanistan and Sri Lanka. The deteriorating global
environment, however, will weigh on investment in the region,” the
WORLD BANK report said

jan 18, 2023

Public sector workers and pensioners in Venezuela have marched in

several cities to demand better salaries as the government struggles to
fight spiralling inflation.Unions say wages have not caught up with the
soaring cost of living.Al Jazeera's @TeresaBo reports

BAKU ajzerbaijan is the only east-west land transir route by which

goods from china ns centra asia to europe without going through iran
and russia it is calld middle corridor and revolutionary global
trade(casparian report)

progress in education over the last 5 decades, covering

Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Sri Lanka in South Asia. India and
Sri Lanka currently belong
to a group of lower middle-income economies, while
Bangladesh and Nepal belong to that
of low-income economies.1
For comparison, the study will also cover Asian economies
with different levels of development, including three lower
middle-income economies:
Indonesia, the Philippines, and Viet Nam; two upper middle-
income economies: Malaysia
and the PRC; and a high-income economy, the Republic of
Korea, which will serve mainly as
a reference point
while the four South Asian countries
started with comparable income levels in the 1960s, their
income levels started to diverge
between 1960 and 1990 as their growth rates varied (Figure 1).
Experiencing a much faster
economic growth during 1960–1990, India and Sri Lanka
achieved an income level that
is two to three times higher than that in Bangladesh and Nepal
by 1990
Table 1: Per Capita Gross Domestic Product
Region and Country
Level
(in 2005 $ constant prices) Annual Growth (%)
1960 1990 2013 1960–2013 1960–1990 1990–2013
South Asia
Bangladesh 253 270 621 1.7 0.2 3.6
India 228 403 1,165 3.1 1.9 4.6
Nepal 178 233 409 1.6 0.9 2.4
Sri Lanka 337 710 2,004 3.4 2.5 4.5
Other Asian countries

China, People’s Rep. of 121 463 3,583 6.4 4.5 8.9

Indonesia 286 840 1,810 3.5 3.6 3.3

Korea, Rep. of 1,107 8,829 23,893 5.8 6.9 4.3

Malaysia 986 3,147 6,998 3.7 3.9 3.5

Philippines 696 1,002 1,581 1.5 1.2 2.0

Singapore 2,530 16,554 36,898 5.1 6.3 3.5

Thailand 437 1,572 3,438 4.3b 5.1c 3.4

Viet Nam 263d 301 1,029 4.7e 3.4f 5.3

PROBLEMS:
IPI REPORT JULY 2021(https://ipi.org.pk/growth-and-sustainability-
hand-in-hand-or-poles-apart/)

Pakistan’s economic policy managersface myriad of challenges, which

hinder the transfer of

economic benefits to the common masses. Both civilian and military

governments have

contributed to the perpetuation of the “elite capture” because of which

the immense economic

potential of the country has remained untapped, while putting the

common man at a disadvantage.

The government’s failure to tackle the issue of burgeoning population

has hampered economic

growth, which has already been contracting in the wake of inconsistent

economic policies and

prolonged political instability. The trickle-down growth model

implemented by the previous

governments strangulated the flow of economic welfare to the lower

strata of the society, thus

widening the gap of inequality between the rich and the poor. The poor
taxation system, a slowed

GDP growth rate, and lack of export-led growth further aggravated the
dwindling economy of
Pakistan. Depleting water resources continue to undermine the
potential of agriculture sector

which is considered as a backbone of Pakistan’s economy. Lack of

investment in public sector and

availability of limited alternatives to direct funds have been

undermining sustainable growth and

development of the country.Early signs of recovery are indicative of a

stabilizing economy that grew

by 1.9 percent in 2019 and contracted by 0.4 percent in 2020. This year
government claims the

economy expanded by about 3 percent

.For a country that is experiencing its 13th balance-of-payments crisis

since 1988, and is in its 23rd Fund programme since 1958, this
argument can only wash with the cognitively iner

➢ It is alarming that more than 6 million Pakistani youth are either

sitting idle due to

unemployment or are not attending any educational institution. The

‘idle youth’ becomes a

source of crime, violence, and extremism. An atmosphere like ‘Arab

Spring’ can take shape in

Pakistan if the issue remains unnoticed.

➢ A growth rate of 6-7% is critical to be achieved to absorb the youth

into the labour markets. It

can also mitigate unemployment and poverty. If per capita income

increases by 3% and the

prices of edible commodities remain sustainable, it will rapidly lower

poverty.

➢ There were moments in our history, particularly from the FY2014-15

to FY2016-17, when we

managed to grow the economy by 5%. That era sustained or even

lowered prices of edible

commodities and the percentage of the public living below the poverty
line shrunk from 75 to

60 million. Unfortunately, the same figure has risen to 80-85 million

now.

➢ As per the Fiscal Responsibility and Debt Limitation Act, the debt
ratio of our government

should not be above 60% or, in other words, 60% of our GDP. But we
have reached 80% now.

Because our GDP base is not expanding rapidly, and the budget loss has
reached 8-9% of GDP,

if the rupee’s devaluation continues, it will reach 100% in the coming

three to four years at the

current pace. So, we need to accomplish the task of achieving 6-7%

growth. ➢ Unfortunately, for the last 20 years, we did not pay adequate
attention to agriculture and largescale production

➢ Pakistan’s Human Development Index in South Asia is the lowest.

Poor performance by

education and health sectors is a major cause of Islamabad’s lagging

behind its regional peers,

including Nepal, which is one of the least developed states in the world.
Debt servicing is eating away more than 40% of the budget.
Dispensation of salaries and

pensions to federal and provincial employees, in addition to the

excessive subsidies given out

to the power sector, hinder Pakistan’s economic growth. State-owned

enterprises are

reminiscent of a bottomless pit for money because they cost the federal
government more than

950 billion rupees a year. All these developments going out of control
can mark a bleak

prospect for Pakistan’s economic ordeals.

➢ The government’s claim that it is all set to lower the budget deficit to
6.7% appears unrealistic

given the present economic situation. Even if the federal government

keeps it at 8%, it should

deserve appreciation.

➢ The tax concession given to the elite costs more than 2400 billion
rupees to the national

exchequer. Such practices inflict harm on the national wealth.

➢ The government lacks a concrete discourse on expenditures. Pakistan

faces around 3000 billion

rupees deficit between its revenues and expenditures.

➢ The government does not lack money, but it lacks the competence to
make the work done. It

lavishes the salaries on the employees who fail to deliver.

➢ A fiscal policy that dares tinker with the established status quo is
sidelined. The political side

fails to manage it. The absolute reluctance on the part of the legislators
further reinforces the

phenomenon of ‘elite capture’. We cannot make a giant leap forward

unless we discover the

forces which can rein the mushrooming ‘elite capture’.

➢ A couple of incentives given here has been withdrawn in the last

budget because IMF says

there should be no exemptions or concessions even on investments.

The export sector,

therefore, did not have the right incentives. India and Bangladesh ran
cash incentive schemes.

We could not even fix the tax refunds under which the exporters could
be timely reimbursed

➢ Second is our over-obsession with textile. APTMA once used to be a

very strong lobby. How

long are we going to rely on textiles that make up 58% of our exports?
On the other hand, we

have damaged the inputs used in the textile sector – cotton. It is a

colossal mistake. The key

input to export is virtually dying and the price of cotton has become
hopelessly uncompetitive

➢ Our biggest failure is that we have not gone to the third level i.e.,
local government

"Without urgent policy action, economic and financial stability could be

at risk, and growth prospects will be insufficient to meet the needs of a
rapidly growing population," the IMF said.

In an accompanying report, the IMF said that Pakistan's economy is at a

critical juncture.

The Food and Agriculture Organisation’s (FAO) food price index, which
tracks international prices of the most globally traded food
commodities, averaged 143.7 points in 2022, up 14.3 per cent from
2021, and the highest since records started in 1990, the agency said on
Friday. The index had already gained 28pc in 2021 from the previous
year as the world economy recovered from the impact of the pandemic
In December the benchmark index fell for the ninth consecutive month
to 132.4 points, compared with a revised 135.00 points for November.
The November figure was previously given as 135.7 points

According to Topline Research, Pakistan's probability of default

increased by 4.2 percentage points to a new high of 64.2%, as Pakistan
will have to pay back on December 5, 2022, $1 billion for a five-year
Sukuk (Shariah-compliant bond).

Dr. Farrukh Saleem, an Islamabad-based Pakistani political scientist,

economist, and financial analyst, told Al Mayadeen English that Pakistan
is not going to default on its debt obligations because the country
recently paid $1 billion worth of Sukuk bonds on December 5. The
problem, he said, existed in Pakistan's five-year Credit Default Swap
(CDS), which increased to 9,253 basis points (bps) on November 18
from 1,000 basis points (bps) in May.

“A CDS is a financial swap arrangement in which the seller of the CDS

agrees to compensate the buyer if the debtor defaults on its
obligations,” Farrukh said.

He revealed that Pakistan's CDS indicates that Pakistan's debt insurance

has grown unreasonably expensive. “This also implies that the Pakistani
government will be unable to sell the debt on the international market
under the existing circumstance, which shows that the country no
longer has access to the international bond market, and it is a big
problem indeed,” he added.
“We are on the verge of a severe monetary crisis. That means the State
Bank of Pakistan (SBP) has run out of money. Running out of currency is
a significant dilemma for an import-dependent country. We want crude
petroleum, refined petroleum, petroleum gas, palm oil, medications,
raw cotton, and wheat imports, but the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) is
out of dollars,” Farrukh stated.

He stated that foreign banks were now demanding an 8% premium to

confirm a letter of credit from a Pakistani bank. He said industrial
consumers and laymen would have to shoulder all of these premiums in
the form of increased pricing, and there could also be severe fuel
scarcity and shortages of gasoline and diesel.

At the same time, the massive decline in machinery imports has slowed
down economic activities creating a serious problem of joblessness.
Over 20pc textile units are believed to have been closed down across
the country but no official data is available except that exporters said
they are sitting without orders.

“Many problems have appeared after floods which destroyed cotton

crops. No gas supply to factories is another hit which has started forcing
us to relieve maximum workers,” said Aamir Aziz, a textile exporter to
European Union and the United States.(DAWN)
KARACHI: Diamond Industries Ltd said on Tuesday it’s suspended
manufacturing operations until further notice because of adverse
economic conditions and non-availability of imported raw materials.
Published January 11, 2023

GDP OF PAKISTAN REPORT BY WORLD BANK:

ISLAMABAD: Warning of another global recession, the World Bank on

Tuesday forecast Pakistan’s economic growth to slow further to two per
cent during the current year — down by two percentage points from its
June 2022 estimate — because of the devastating floods and slowdown
in global growth rate.

The World Bank’s latest forecast also points to a “sharp, long-lasting

slowdown” with global growth pegged at 1.7pc this year, compared to
3pc it predicted in June, said the bank’s latest Global Economic
Prospects report, a flagship publication of the World Bank Group.

It said that global growth was slowing sharply in the face of elevated
inflation, higher interest rates, reduced investment, and disruptions
caused by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

In the report, the Washington-based lending agency said Pakistan’s

economic output was not only declining itself but also bringing down
the regional growth rate. It forecast Pakistan’s GDP growth rate to
improve to 3.2pc in 2024, but that too would be lower than the earlier
estimate of 4.2pc.

“Policy uncertainty further complicates the economic outlook” of

Pakistan, in addition to flood damages and the resultant increase in
poverty, the bank said, explaining that an already precarious economic
situation in Pakistan, with low foreign exchange reserves and large fiscal
and current account deficits, was exacerbated in August last year by
severe flooding, which cost many lives.

About one-third of the country’s land area was affected, damaging

infrastructure, and directly affecting about 15pc of the population.

“Recovery and reconstruction needs are expected to be 1.6 times the

FY2022-23 national development budget,” it said, adding that the
flooding is likely to seriously damage agricultural production — which
accounts for 23pc of GDP and 37pc of employment — disrupting the
current and upcoming planting seasons and pushing 5.8 million at 9m
people into poverty.

Pakistan, with low foreign exchange reserves and rising sovereign risk,
saw its currency depreciate by 14pc between June and December and
its country risk premium rise by 15 percentage points over the same
period.

Pakistan’s consumer price inflation reached 24.5pc in December on an

annual basis, recently coming off its highest rate since the 1970s, the
World Bank said.

.In the region excluding India, growth in 2023 and 2024 — at 3.6pc and
4.6pc, respectively — is expected to underperform its average pre-
pandemic rate. This is mainly due to weak growth in Pakistan, which is
projected at 2pc in FY2022-23, half the pace that was anticipated in
June last year.Pakistan faces challenging economic conditions, including
the repercussions of the recent flooding and continued policy and
political uncertainty. As the country implements policy measures to
stabilise macroeconomic conditions, inflationary pressures dissipate,
and rebuilding begins following the floods, and growth is expected to
pick up to 3.2pc in FY2023-24 — still below previous projections.Food
prices have risen rapidly in South Asia, especially in Pakistan and Sri
Lanka, increasing the incidence of food insecurity in the region.Export
bans on food, also increasingly prevalent, could have unintended
consequences and exacerbate increases in global food prices.
Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, and Pakistan implemented export
restrictions on food in 2022, including rice, wheat and sugar.The recent
floods in Pakistan are estimated to have caused damage equivalent to
about 4.8pc of GDP. Extreme weather events can exacerbate food
deprivation, cut the region off essential supplies, destroy infrastructure,
and directly impede agricultural production.In some economies, the
World Bank report noted, the deterioration in economic conditions has
led to a substantial rise in poverty (Afghanistan, Pakistan, Sri Lanka).
Many households are consuming less nutritious food, and rolling
electricity blackouts have become common as fuel has been rationed.
The combination of limited foreign exchange buffers and widening
external current account deficits encouraged several countries
(including Bangladesh and Pakistan) to approach the International
Monetary Fund to help bolster foreign exchange reserves and mitigate
external financing pressures. In parallel, governments have tightened
fiscal policies and, in some cases, imposed import controls and food
export bans.(Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2023)

IMPORT OF WHEAT AND GRAIN FROM RUSSIA:

KARACHI: A ship carrying 60,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia arrived at

the Port Qasim while another ship carrying the grain from Ukraine was
at the outer anchorage of Karachi port as the government scurried to
bridge the demand and supply gap.According to some local media
reports, two ships carrying Russian wheat docked at the port, but
private sector importers said one ship, MV LEVANTES, has anchored at
Port Qasim.According to Karachi Port Trust’s website, the second vessel
Caravos Liberty — carrying 58,266 tonnes of grain — was near the port,
but was yet to dock.Media reports also quoted an announcement by
the Ministry of National Food and Security as saying that two ships
carrying Russian wheat had arrived at the port on Monday and that
Pakistan would import a total 700,000 tonnes of wheat from Russia.KPT
says another vessel to arrive soonThe Trading Corporation of Pakistan
(TCP) has imported 1.7 million tonnes of wheat in FY21. As per the
government’s directive, the TCP had delivered one million tonnes to
Punjab, 444,935 tonnes to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, 117,528 tonnes to
Sindh and 114,532 tonnes to Pakistan Agricultural Storage and Services
Corporation (Passco) through tenders to stabilise the prices.In FY22, TCP
had imported 2.23mn tonnes, out of which 519,412 tonnes were
delivered to KP and 1.684mn tonnes to Passco.Pakistan has imported
1.1mn tonnes (valued at $460m) in July-November FY23 as compared to
1.02m tonnes ($340m) in the same period during FY22.Cereal
Association of Pakistan (CAP) chairman Muzammil Chappal recalled that
the private sector had imported 1.5m tonnes in FY21 from Ukraine,
Germany, Russia, Romania, and some other countries.Despite repeated
requests to further allow imports to stabilise flour rates, the
government was not paying any attention, he added.There was some
respite from rising prices of flour as authorities intensified crackdown
against hoarders, speculators and profiteers. The price of a 100kg wheat
bag in the open market on Monday plunged to Rs12,000 from Rs 13,000
last week.Published in Dawn, January 10th, 2023

Since June 2022, Pakistan has been suffering from strong monsoon
rains, resulting in catastrophic and unprecedented flooding. Almost 15%
of the country is submerged, affecting more than 33 million people.
According to preliminary projections, the flood will directly increase the
national poverty rate by up to 4.0 percentage points. Due to increasing
energy prices, a weaker rupee, and flood-related delays to agricultural
production, growth is now estimated to be about 2% in FY23. The
budget deficit, including grants, is forecast to fall to roughly 6.9% of
GDP

Right now, the problem for most businesses is uncertainty,” says

Hascol’s CEO Saleem Butt. “You don’t know where the growth is
headed, you don’t know the direction of interest rates, and you don’t
know by how much inflation is going to increase.”

Pakistan is facing "significant economic challenges" due to a weak and

unbalanced growth and that its economy is at a critical juncture where
it needs an ambitious and bold set of reforms, the IMF has said. Cash-
strapped Pakistan, which currently has a currency reserve of less than
$8 billion -- enough to cover only 1.7 months of imports -- approached
the Washington-based International Monetary Fund (IMF) in August
2018 for a bailout package after the Imran Khan government took over.
The global lender last week formally approved the $6 billion loan to
Pakistan, which is facing "significant" economic challenges on the back
of "large" fiscal and financial needs and "weak and unbalanced"
growth."Pakistan is facing significant economic challenges on the back
of large fiscal and financial needs and weak and unbalanced growth,"
David Lipton, First Deputy Managing Director and Acting Chair of the
IMF Executive Board said.

ISLAMABAD: The ship agents have forewarned the government that all
export cargoes could come to a halt as foreign shipping lines are
considering stopping their services for Pakistan after banks stopped
remitting freight charges to them for lack of dollar availability.

The PSAA chairman also wrote letters to State Bank of Pakistan

Governor Jameel Ahmed, Commerce Minister Syed Naveed Namar and
Maritime Affairs Minister Faisal Sabzwari. Mr Rauf requested the
ministries and departments concerned to intervene to ensure
continuity in Pakistan’s seaborne trade by allowing outward remittance
of surplus freight amounts to respective foreign shipping lines
forthwith.The annual freight bill of Pakistan is around $5 billion, and
foreign companies receive the charges in international currencies
mainly the “greenback”However, talking to Dawn former PSAA
chairman Muhammad Rajpar said that Pakistan was not close to an
economic meltdown as yet, therefore the government still has time to
seek a way out of the current crisis.

“We can always have innovative ideas to get out of difficult times, one
of them is hedging of dollars and set installments for the payments to
the shipping companies,” Mr Rajpar said.Published in Dawn, January
21st, 2023

ISLAMABAD: Pakistan’s exports to nine regional countries shrank 11.93

per cent in the first half of FY23 mainly driven by a drop in shipments to
China, data released by the State Bank of Pakistan showed on Monday
Published January 31, 2023

PESHAWAR: The business community in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa on

Monday warned that if the “worsening” economic crisis in the country
continued, then industrial units would close down and the people
would struggle to make both ends meet Published January 31, 2023
FOREIGN AIDS
The UNFPA activities include the distribution of 20,000 dignity kits,
establishing and strengthening Gender-Based Violence (GBV) referral
mechanisms of cases“After the devastating floods, women and girls
continue to be at risk of violence, exploitation, and abuse. They must be
able to access services critical to their health and survival.“The scale of
destruction after the floods is huge, and protection needs among
children and women are still growing,” said UNHCR Representative to
Pakistan, Noriko Yoshida.

The UNHCR, the UN’s Refugee Agency, signed two agreements with the
United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) and Unicef at the time when
swathes of Pakistan remain under water.

The agreement is expected to continue in 2023 and is aimed to facilitate

the transfer of resources from one UN entity to another to reach the
most affected communities under the “One-UN” arrangement, said an
announcement by the UN, on Monday.

“Together our partnership with UNFPA and Unicef will strengthen the
collective response, as part of UN-wide efforts,” she said

The UNFPA’s priority is to ensure women and girls have access to

lifesaving reproductive health and protection services even in the midst
of an emergency, said Dr Luay Shabaneh, the UNFPA representative in
Pakistan.Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2023
The Fund-supported programme is expected to coalesce broader
support from multilateral and bilateral creditors in excess of USD 38
billion, which is crucial for Pakistan to meet its large financing needs in
the coming years, it added.

Pakistan has so far received billions in financial aid packages from

friendly countries like China, Saudi Arabia and the UAE during the
current fiscal year

However, there is no clear response from China as Pakistan is willing to

roll over $13bn Chinese loans for more than a year. Chinese power
sector inflows are stuck up due to non-clearance of dues of about
Rs300bn of Chinese companies already functioning here. Raising dollars
from the international market is out of the question due to the massive
decline in bond prices in the international market. The delay in IMF
talks for the 9th review could affect the release of loans from the World
Bank.

So far, the government has not been able to attract investments from
Arab countries.

the International Monetary Fund (IMF) assessed that Pakistan owed

Chinese Commercial Banks and the Chinese government $30 billion, up
from its February assessment of $24.7 billion. The ratio thus increased
from 27.4% to 30% of Pakistan's total external debt.

Following a recent visit to China, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz

Sharif is said to have received assurances from Beijing that it will roll
over existing loans totaling $ 9 billion in sovereign deposits, currency
swaps, and commercial loans. However, Beijing remains conspicuously
dubious about Islamabad's request for a rollover of its payable debts.

Similarly, Riyadh also made similar promises during Sharif's visit last
month that it would provide $4.2 billion in financing and a deferred oil
payment. Riyadh, however, recently announced a one-year rollover of
$3 billion in deposits for Pakistan

Deep in China’s debt

Pakistan is also close to China – and deeply in its debt. More
than 30% of Pakistan’s total foreign debt is owed to China,
according to the IMF. That’s three times what Pakistan owes the
IMF and more than its loans from the World Bank andAsian
Development Bank combined, says Madishetty.

These Chinese loans, he said, “are accompanied by opaque

conditionalities, overlook long-term viability of projects, ignore
environmental and social costs, and have interest rates that are
usually 1-2 percent higher than those offered by OECD lenders.”
Despite all this and its current financial situation, Pakistan
continues to borrow from China.

“Most recently, it has sought a $10 billion loan from China for a
major railway project, ignoring debt concerns. Such decisions
certainly push the country towards defaulting on its debt
sooner rather than later,” Madishetty saidAlam says that China’s
debt is actually “the least of Pakistan’s problems, given the
Chinese Pakistan alliance is primarily military and in that sense
different to African states or other Southeast Asian states.” The
two countries need each other for military and strategic
purposes, so debt to China may not be as urgent a liability yet
as the rest of the country’s issues (CNBC article PUBLISHED FRI,
FEB 3 20233:17 AM EST by Natasha Turak)

We see the machinations of a powerful establishment playing games

while parents struggle to feed their children. We see politicians sniping
at and sabotaging each other while businesses shut down. We see a
government speaking loudly of sacrifice and austerity while constantly
increasing the size of an already bloated cabinet.there are now two
separate exchange rates in play and obtaining dollars is considerably
harder than scoring drugs. Countless containers are stuck at Karachi
port because there is not enough foreign exchange available to clear
them.(AL JAZEERA

Pakistan’s dark age: The joke’s on us, and it’s no longer funny

Zarrar Khuhro Pakistani journalist, columnist and talk show host

Published On 25 Jan 2023)

Perhaps unsurprisingly, Sri Lanka comes close, with a total of 16 IMF

programmes under its belt since its independence in 1948. (Argentina, a
serial defaulter on its sovereign debt, has approached the IMF 22 times
since 1956).It will also be illustrative to see a breakdown of the number
of IMF programmes undertaken by each political party by its tenure in
government since 1988. PML-N has four IMF programmes under its
belt, PPP six, two under Gen Musharraf, and one by PTI Published
January 19, 2023

REASONS:
Th e taxto- gross domestic product (GDP)
ratio rose from 9 percent in 1964–1965 to
14 percent in 1990 before returning to 8.9
percent in 2013.9
It further diminished to 7 percent in 2014,10
because, among other things, of the
doubling of
 tax exemptions— Rs 477.1 billion (including
Rs 96.2 billion on income tax)—
which shows that the government continued
with its pro- rich policy.11
Th ese fi gures are also due to fraud (one
specialist estimated in the 1990s that
less than 1 percent of the people who are
supposed to pay income tax do so).12
Th ings have not improved considerably
since then. In 2013, the income taxto- GDP
ratio has fallen to 3.5 percent, with taxpayers
numbering about
1.5 million people.13 Th is state of things is
the refl ection of a robust convergence of
interests of the establishment elite groups—
including the politicians
and the army chiefs
1. Pakistan lacks both policy consistency and political stability for
achieving sustainable

economic growth and development.

KARACHI: The current account deficit (CAD) fell by 68 per cent to $567
million in October compared to $1,779m in the same month last year
on account of steep decline in the imports.

2. The population growth rate of Pakistan is so far the highest in the

region. It poses a challenge

to Pakistan’s economic growth and slows down development.

3. The current government of PTI is luckily not emulating the past
development models

implemented by authoritarian regimes where foreign aid momentarily

boosted economic

growth but left grave repercussions in the long run by widening the gap
of inequality.

. The export-led growth is the only panacea for Pakistan’s ailing

economy. The government’s

focus on the construction sector for achieving sustainable economic

growth will provide

investment opportunities to wealthy businessmen with little benefits

for the downtrodden.

11. Poor performance of health and education sectors takes a heavy toll
on the Human

Development Index of the country.

12. Interminable power outages, excessive focus on the construction of

roads and railway

infrastructures and lack of investment in public sectors are a few causes

hindering the economic

growth of the country.

13. The depleting water resources are exacerbating the crop crisis of
Pakistan. There is a sheer

absence of a well-thought strategy to tackle the emanating water

scarcity. It may pose an

existential threat to Pakistan’s existence if its agriculture sector perishes

. There is a clear absence of a concrete analysis of expenditures. The

gap between expenditures

and revenues is expanding at a fast pace. The government’s lack of

competence and implement

out of the box strategies reinforces the ‘elite capture’ phenomenon,

which further hinders

economic growth.

Structural weaknesses remained largely unaddressed, including a

chronically weak tax administration, a difficult business environment,
inefficient and loss making state-owned enterprises, amid a large
informal economy.

The legacy of misaligned economic policies, including large fiscal

deficits, loose monetary policy and defence of an overvalued exchange
rate, fuelled consumption and short-term growth in recent years, but
steadily eroded macroeconomic buffers, increased external and public
debt, and depleted international reserves.

the Pakistan Business Forum (PBF), a private sector policy advocacy

organization, issued a warning to the government that the constant
depreciation of the currency is exacerbating the nation's economic
predicament. It told the country's central bank to stop people from
speculating on the market to ameliorate the situation.
Earlier, in July, the PBF urged Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif to proclaim
a national economic emergency and take immediate action to prevent a
Sri Lanka-like catastrophe.

IMF IS NOT PANACAE:

WASHINGTON: As Pakistan anticipates the arrival of the International

Monetary Fund’s team to revive the stalled loan programme, experts
have said the visit only offers a glimmer of hope with more robust
reforms needed to stabilise the ailing economy.Former heads of the
State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) and Federal Board of Revenue have
delineated reasons for economic instability and proposed ‘the way out’.

The former SBP acting governor, Murtaza Syed said the IMF team’s
arrival offers a glimmer of hope that Pakistan will be able to stave off
default.

In an OpEd published in an English daily on Monday, Mr Syed said in

March 2021, Pakistan had managed to resume the loan programme and
received global acclaim for its management of the Covid-19pandemic.

“Growth had picked up strongly while government debt had fallen by

6.5[per cent] of GDP, the current account was virtually balanced and
foreign exchange reserves had increased by almost 50[pc] to $17
billion,” he wrote.

Despite these achievements, he added Pakistan’s growth model

remained consumption- and imports-driven, with tax and exports
forming a paltry share of GDP.

He argued troubles began with a hyper-expansionary budget in 2022,

launched with the conviction that growth would solve all of Pakistan’s
problems, but it did not. He said Pakistan could have approached the
IMF early last year, when foreign exchange reserves were in a much
stronger position.

Former SBP governor Raza Baqir said global lenders like the IMF must
step up and improve the framework for sovereign debt financing to help
emerging economies out of debt distress.

Mr Baqir, who is currently the global head of sovereign advisory

services at Alvarez & Marsal, said Sri Lanka was still waiting for debt
relief from the IMF to rescue it from dire economic conditions.

He noted the outlook for emerging markets, like Pakistan, “has

deteriorated very sharply” over the past two years despite some recent
improvement in appetite. “The key reason is the rapid rise in public
debt,” he told CNBC on Monday.

Former FBR chairman Shabbar Zaidi said “the nervous system of the
Pakistani economy has become dysfunctional” as a result of the
insatiable “desire for status quo.”

Mr Zaidi proposed a “financial emergency” for 15 years during which a

consistent “pro-Pakistan and pro-poor” plan should be laid out.“

He also called for abrogating free trade agreements with China, Turkiye,
Sri Lanka, Indonesia, Malaysia and other countries.

He suggested bringing retailers and wholesalers into the tax net and
identifying ownership of each house and plot.“Withdraw all leases of
agricultural land. No patta system in agriculture. Open trade with India.
Start work on the Turkmenistan-Afghan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline,” he
wrote in a series of tweets.Published in Dawn, January 31st, 2023

HOPES:
Goldman Sachs analysts Kevin Daly and Tadas Gedminas project
Pakistan's economy to grow to become the world's sixth largest by
2075. In a research paper titled "The Path to 2075", the authors forecast
Pakistan's GDP to rise to $12.7 trillion with per capita income of
$27,100

There is still a serious problem to meet the country’s external financing

obligations, but the finance minister has recently rejected all
perceptions about growing default risks and difficulties around the
economy and claimed enough funds have been arranged to bridge the
external account gap.

Pakistan Finance Minister Ishaq Dar declared on a televised show on

Friday (December 2) that the government has made provisions for all of
its international liabilities and that there is no risk of default. He
revealed that the government was already negotiating a $3 billion
payment with an ally other than China and Saudi Arabia. According to
him, "a good understanding" has been reached, and Pakistan would
likely get funds to raise its overall foreign reserves in the next two
weeks

The World Bank’s country overview revealed that Pakistan's economy

was undergoing an overdue adjustment in early 2022 as it recovered
from the effects of COVID-19. The economy grew by 6.0 percent in
Financial Year 22 thanks to supportive macroeconomic measures. The
government began pursuing a variety of policies to restrain aggregate
demand and stabilize the economy.

WASHINGTON: As the country continues to grapple with

one economic challenge after the other, the United
States has said that it wanted to see Pakistan in an
“economically sustainable position”.
When asked about the economic difficulties confronting
Pakistan, US State Department spokesman Ned Price said
on Wednesday: “This is a challenge that we are attuned
to. I know that Pakistan has been working with the IMF
and other international financial institutions. We want to
see Pakistan in an economically sustainable position.”
The US official, however, noted that those conversations
were “ongoing” and “we are supportive where we can
be, to our Pakistani partners. But ultimately these are
conversations between Pakistan and international
financial institutions.”
Confirming that the United States was engaged with
Pakistan on this issue, he said: “These conversations with
our Pakistani partners often do entail technical issues,
oftentimes these are addressed between the US
Department of Treasury and our Pakistani partners.”
Underlining the US role in the talks to stabilise Pakistan’s
economy, he said: “Pakistan’s macroeconomic stability is
a topic of conversation between the Department of State
and our counterparts at the White House, the Treasury
Department, among others.”Published in Dawn, January
19th, 2023

Shares at the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) recovered on

Tuesday as an International Monetary Fund (IMF)
delegation arrived in Pakistan to discuss the revival of the
stalled loan programme.(Shares recover on hopes of IMF
programme revival
Talqeen Zubairi Published January 31, 2023)

According to the Tehran Times, Iranian Foreign Minister

Hossein Amir Abdollahian highlighted the issue of energy
security.
He suggested that the ECO region can become "a model
of partnership between energy-producing countries and
energy-consuming countries."
Pakistani Foreign Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari said
connectivity through the development of road and rail
projects, liberalisation of visa regimes and simplification
of border procedures would enable the ECO countries to
“act as a bridge and create mutual inter-dependencies.”
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov stressed
the importance of the measures taken toward the
creation of a transport corridor from the Eastern
Zangezur region of Azerbaijan to the Nakhchivan
Autonomous Republic.
"The Zangezur corridor will be especially important for
the growth of cooperation between the nations in the
entire region," the Azerbaijani foreign minister
said.Tashkent meeting calls for ‘effective’ cooperation
amid global challenges
25 JAN 2023
OPORTUNITIES/SUGGESTION:
QUETTA: The Pak-Iran Joint Border Trade Committee at a meeting
agreed to remove hurdles, increase bilateral legal trade and implement
the barter agreement for achieving the target of trade between the two
countries.He suggested establishing a separate gate at the Pak-Iran
border at Taftan for the business community so that they do not face
any difficulty in the transportation of their goodsQUETTA: Pakistan and
Iran have signed 39 memorandums of understanding to enhance
bilateral trade, improve economic relations and ensure cooperation in
various fields such as transportation, tourism, fisheries, mines and
minerals.It was decided that both countries would take measures to
increase bilateral trade to $5 billion annually and also try to achieve
balance of tradeThe Pakistani side said the number of railway wagons
for freight transportation would be increased up to 500 on the
completion of a bridge at Hirak by the end of June 2023, considering
the increased demand of the traders..Published in Dawn, January 15th,
2023

PM Shehbaz sharif said in the meeting on the implementation of

solarization that initially solar panels of 1000 megawatt would be
provided to federal goverment buildings for energy saving purpose and
adding that he said this project gave pakistan good acheivment in its IT
exports of more than 15 billion in three years and reviewed ties with
UK(published 6 january 2023)

It is necessary to slow the economy down to arrest the main culprit

inflation. At the same time, it will tame the twin deficits. But this should
be a stop-gap measure and the focus should be on increasing
productivity,” said Faisal Mamsa, CEO of Tresmark, a terminal that
tracks live prices of financial markets.(Published in Dawn, November
22nd, 2022)

IPI REPORT:
A flexible market-determined exchange rate and an adequately tight
monetary policy will be key to correcting imbalances, rebuilding
reserves and keeping inflation low, he said, adding that an ambitious
agenda to strengthen institutions and remove impediments to growth
will allow Pakistan to reach its full economic potential

19. The legislators should make a unanimous effort to implement article

40A and the 18th

amendment, the sooner the better, for resolving the impending issues.

20. A political charter that sets out functions, responsibilities, and

mandates of federal and

provincial institutions should be produced for smooth functioning.

. A better functioning transmission and distribution system of power is

the need of the hour. The

PSDP should enlarge the investment ratio to at least 50% to the power
sector to uplift the

economy.
. The tax concession given to the elite presents a gloom-ridden
environment for the future of

Pakistan

The government needs to expedite the growth to 6-7% to meet the

ballooning debt ratio, which

currently stands at 80% and may further shoot up to 100% in the

coming years.

We could not get strategic results because of not focusing on emerging

areas like IT.

➢ Pakistan was the ingenious country that came up with the

Therefore, there is a need to diversify and go beyond the obsession
with the six industries.

There are at least 10 other items in the agriculture and manufacturing

sectors, whose exports

have increased to more than $2.5 billion. These sectors need to be paid
attention through

granting them liberal incentives.

➢ SEZs should, moreover, be given a tax break for 10 years. The future
has to be export-led

growth

most ingenious schemes for

promoting exports in the 1960s commonly referred to as the bonus

voucher scheme. India
replicated it through its ‘duty script scheme’. We were way ahead in
thinking but lost our way.

FBR today causes inconvenience for the exporters.

CPEC provides us with the opportunities which were once available to

South Korea, Japan,

and MexicoPakistan’s growth patterns have always fallen short of

fulfilling the criterion of equal

distribution of wealth.

➢ GDP composition matters and the Pakistani GDP composition of the

last 20-25 years draws

our attention towards the fact that the contribution of services has
increased with shares of

industry, agriculture, and real estate remaining almost constant, not

increasing more than 4-

5%. We need to make progress in the industrial sector for endurable

economic growth➢ The looming crisis of the burgeoning population
would be disastrous and should be addressed

adequately by policymakers..If two parameters, (i) tax collection, and (ii)

government efficiency, are

excluded from a capitalist state system, its progress comes to a

standstill.

➢ Pakistan’s growth trajectory is floating and lacks depth. The

government should invest heavily
in growth-producing sectors instead of looking for investments from
private sector.

➢ The housing schemes that the present government is introducing will

provide opportunities to

wealthy investors but will play a little role to alleviate poverty at the
grassroots level. There is

a dearth of any substantial initiative solely aimed at reducing the

economic plight of the poor.

There is an urgent need for a growth paradigm shift for equal

distribution of wealth

➢ The government should play a leading role in absorbing the idle

youth, reduce poverty and

manage the national debt ratio to achieve sustainable growth.

➢ The first solution would come through increasing saving and

investment rates. One of the

reasons for Pakistan’s lagging behind India and Bangladesh in growth is

the latter’s high saving

and investment rates, like 25-30% as compared to the former, where,

even under favourable

conditions, the investment rates rarely touch the figure of 16-17% and
the saving rates hardly

reach 13-14%.

➢ Second, the implementation of a sustained and fair taxation system

would lower the existing

inequality. Unfortunately, Pakistan’s taxation system is a victim of elite

capture.

➢ Export-led growth through the expansion of national exports can be

a remedy for reducing

poverty. The growth of imports is 1.4 times more than the expansion of
exports in Pakistan.

The rising imports are a result of the increasing wealth of the rich
instead of translating benefits

to the lower strata of society. Pakistan can come back on solid footing if
its exports are

increased by 2% at least

➢ Pakistan’s Human Development Index in South Asia is the lowest.

Poor performance by

education and health sectors is a major cause of Islamabad’s lagging

behind its regional peers,

including Nepal, which is one of the least developed states in the world.

➢ More than 2% of Pakistan’s GDP goes down the drains due to lengthy
power outages. In the

wake of the inauguration of CPEC, Islamabad’s priority towards the

construction of highways,

mass transits, and roads, has sharpened manifold. The road-

development approach adopted by
successive governments is likely to take a heavy toll on the already
dwindling economy of

Pakistan. Unless the economic experts explore alternative ways to

invest national wealth,

Pakistan would continue to face difficulties in wading through the

economic crisis.

➢ There is a blatant depletion of available water resources to keep the

agriculture sector lucrative.

The government must take immediate steps to manage the looming

water crisis. The economic

growth is likely to meet a failure if the crop sector is vanishing.

➢ The federal government can expedite the hitherto stagnant

economic development if a better

transmission and distribution system for power is introduced. This

sector demands more than

50% of the public sector funds directed to it for its vigorous functioning.
The PSDP,

unfortunately, is again spending more than 50% on NHA, and the power
sector is being placed

on the back burner with only 20% of spending on it.

The two Constitutional bodies National Economic Council and the

Council of Common Interest should be made more functional and
effective.
TELECOMMUNICATION REPORT:

ISLAMABAD: The consumers of telecom and internet services paid

Rs100 billion more in duties and levies during the fiscal year ending on
June 30, 2022, as the PMLN-led coalition government increased the tax
rates soon after coming to power in April 2022. Overall the telecom
sector contributed Rs325.2bn to the national exchequer in 2021-22
compared to Rs225.8bn in the preceding fiscal year. The number of new
data users rose by over 16pc to 118.76 million from 102m in FY21,
showed the Annual Report 2022 released by the Pakistan
Telecommunication Authority (PTA) on Tuesday. The telecom sector
invested a total of $2.07bn and paid Rs222.7bn in taxes and Rs102.5bn
in Next Generation Mobile Services (NGMS) auction and licence
renewals. The report also highlighted encouraging telecom statistics
and expanding the usage of telecom services across Pakistan. The PTA
has said despite a challenging year marked by rising inflationary
pressures and profitability concerns, the telecom sector performed well
due to a progressive and enabling regulatory environment. For the first
time in the country’s history, the import volume of mobile handsets
registered a decline as most of the local demand was met through
indigenously manufactured products. Pakistan manufactured 41.35
million mobile handsets but the share of smartphones was not even
half of it at 17.3m sets from January 2021 to September 2022. The local
mobile sets manufacturing has resulted in the creation of skilled jobs,
while many international brands such as Samsung, Nokia, Xiaomi, Oppo,
Vivo, Techno and Infinix have already entered Pakistan as
manufacturers. Pakistan has over 197 million telecom subscribers both
fixed and mobile, with teledensity touching 90pc. The biometrically
verified SIMs/subscribers have increased to 194m, whereas, broadband
subscriptions grew to 124m with 56pc penetration. Pakistan’s annual
mobile data usage has crossed 8,970 petabytes around 6.8 GB per
subscriber per month with an annual growth of 31pc. The Global
System for Mobile Communications Association has rated Pakistan as an
‘emerging’telecom market. The Annual Report also revealed that
International Social Media platforms such as Bigo, Snack Video, and
Mico were registered by PTA under the prevailing legal framework.PTA
also launched the country’s largest ‘Digital Gender Inclusion Initiative,’
whereby the first ‘Gender Mainstreaming in ICTs’ strategy is being
developed. These measures are in addition to efforts aimed at
increasing telecom accessibility, availability, and affordability through
telecom operators.(Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2023)

AGRICULTRE SECTORE:

Under the 4R framework, at least $4 billion are urgently needed to

facilitate the immediate recovery of the agriculture sector, and to lay
the foundations for lasting resilience, according to FAO.

To date, organisation has mobilised over $25m, provided 600,000

affected people with seeds, fertilisers

An estimated 4.4 million acres of farmland — enough to cultivate crops

for 14.6 million people — were damaged, and more than 800,000
animals perished in the floods.

In all, more than $9 billion in losses were incurred by the agriculture

sector. What’s more, over 80 per cent of such losses were absorbed by
the crop sub-sector, which means that food production will be
compromised in the immediate future without substantial support.
To date, the FAO has mobilised over $25 million and has provided over
600,000 affected people with seeds and fertilisers. In addition, livestock
vaccination campaigns have been completed in the Balochistan
province and are being finalised in Sindh, while livestock feed
distribution will begin shortly.

The FAO’s role in Pakistan includes the provision of technical leadership

for the Transforming Indus Basin Initiative, funded by Green Climate
Fund.

Through this programme, some 1.3 million people in vulnerable areas

of the Indus River basin will see improved yields and increased returns
of between 30 and 80 per cent in their production. In all, about 16m
people will benefit from the programme, either directly or indirectly,
Dongyu explained.

The project will help shift Pakistan and its Indus Basin agriculture from
the current situation of high vulnerability toward an alternative
paradigm in which better information, water management and farming
practices will significantly increase resilience to climate
change.Published in Dawn, January 11th, 2023\

Last week, the IMF approved the 13th bailout package for Pakistan
since the late 1980s.

The latest bailout package is worth $6 billion, of which $1 billion is to be

disbursed immediately and the rest in the next three years.

A decisive fiscal consolidation is key to reducing the large public debt

and building resilience, and the adoption of the fiscal year 2020 budget
is an important initial step, Lipton said.

Achieving the fiscal objectives will require a multi-year revenue

mobilisation strategy to broaden the tax base and raise tax revenue in a
well-balanced and equitable manner, he said.It will also require a strong
commitment by the provinces to support the consolidation effort and
effective public financial management to improve the quality and
efficiency of public spending, he said.Observing that protecting the
most vulnerable from the impact of adjustment policies will be an
important priority, Lipton said that this will be achieved by a significant
increase in resources allocated to key social assistance programmes,
supporting measures for the economic empowerment of women and
investment in areas where poverty is high.

Pakistan will pay for energy purchases from Russia — when they start in
late March — in “currencies of friendly countries”, a top Russian energy
ministry official said on Friday during a press briefing, according to
Reuters

The joint statement stated both countries discussed “innovative ways of

doing business, including through barter” and agreed to explore the
option further.They also agreed to share information towards
developing and improving rail and road infrastructure while nominating
focal persons from both sides to discuss issues concerning connectivity
and logistics in Central and South Asia.Pakistan and Russia have signed
two agreements — in 2015 and 2021— for the construction of the $2.5
billion pipeline, which was slated to begin last year but could not be
started due to global sanctions on Moscow Anadolu Agency |
Dawn.com | Reuters | Tahir Sherani Published January 20, 2023
.

A survey of multiple education sector reform attempts reveals

the exact same dismal results. More recently, attempts at
introducing a semblance of viability in the energy sector have
also been meeting with failure.
The country’s power elites would still like to believe that it is
‘bad luck’ that landed us here, but running a country on
geopolitical rents, mercenary impulses and elite capture is
hardly sustainable — and has never ended well.
The elites have to wake up. Without recognition of what I would
term the country’s foundational mis-constructs, whether on the
political or the economic side, and taking responsibility as well
as ownership for addressing them, any hope of getting onto the
road to recovery will give way to a path to perdition.The writer
is a former member of the prime minister’s economic advisory
council, and heads a macroeconomic consultancy based in
Islamabad.Published in Dawn, January 19th, 2023

QUETTA: Balochistan Chief Minister Mir Abdul Qudoos Bizenjo

has said after the Reko Diq agreement with Canadian-based
Barrick Gold Corporation, many more projects are in the
pipeline.Published February 4, 2023
The Saudi finance minister’s statement at the World Economic Forum
that future support from the kingdom to its allies would be aligned with
multilateral agencies, and would also depend on the countries’
willingness to revamp their economy indicates that the investment and
other financial support plans announced recently by ‘friendly’ countries
for Pakistan are not likely to materialise without the IMF on board.

Statistics also showed that our country-Pakistan on annual basis has

exported textile products valued at $19.33 billion during FY2021 making
a record highSources identified that the textiles and clothing sector has
grown to be the single largest manufacturing sector in Pakistan. The
Sector employs statistics showed, over 38 percent of the manufacturing
labor force. Greater than US$5 billion of textile and garment machinery
into Pakistan; has been imported in the last few years

The textile sector in Pakistan

BY S. KAMAL HAYDER KAZMIDECEMBER 26, 2022UPDATED:FEBRUARY

1, 2023

1. invest in human capital

2.improve governance

3.expand the tax net

4.boost export
5.promote private setors

6.digitize

7.privatize state-owner enterprises

8.introduce liberal foreign exchange regime

9.amned exchnage rate policy

10. open financial market

11. foster competition

GLOBA IMPACTS ON ECONOMY OF PAKISTAN:

THE ECONOMIST MAGAZINE:

The end of zerocovid in China has lowered the chance that

supply chains will gum up. However, its rebound is not an unalloyed
good for the rest of the world, which has an inflation problem, not a
shortage of spending. China’s extra imports will add more fuel to
overheated economies. Europe’s gas storage is so full in part because
China’s demand for liquefied natural gas in 2022 was 20% below its
usual level. Demand is now likely to bounce back, which could cause
prices to surge once again next winter. Only when the twin foes of
overheated labour markets and the energy crisis have been vanquished
will the world economy be out of the woods And so the funding model
for local governments remains unchanged. Local officials will keep
trying to pep up sales and prices. But who will live in all the new
homes? Morgan Stanley, a bank, estimates there will be 90m new urban
households in the next decade. But at its peak, China was adding about
15m homes a year. If supply is to match demand, construction will have
to slow dramatically, especially as China’s population shrinks. Today’s
bailout may be reviving Chinese property, but without real reforms the
sector will be doomed to boom and bust again There are times when
Britain will need to spend money to promote its nationalsecurity
interests or environmental priorities. But resources are finite and it is
especially unwise to bail out whichever industry is first to get into
trouble. Britain is the 18thbiggest carmaker in the world and has no
obvious competitive advantage in this area (unlike in life sciences and
clean energy). It is good news that the country’s industries would be a
lot more successful if the government did the basics well. Sweeteners
matter less when other things taste better. The drug trade was having a
huge impact on Pakistan, first in increase in drug use, addiction, and
crime, and second, much of the profit was going to legitimate
investments. It was said that Afghan drug lords controlled a large part of
trucking and other industries. It is clearly in the drug lords’ interest that
the Pakistani national government be weak.

Pakistan received a $6 billion bailout from the IMF in 2019, to

which another $1 billion was added in August of 2022, in the
IMF’s 23rd funding program for the country in its 75-year
existence“Pakistan’s economic situation is a direct reflection of
the misplaced priorities of the country for decades,” said Kamal
Madishetty, a researcher at the Institute of Peace and Conflict
Studies in New Delhi. He pointed to the overwhelming control
of the military over all other institutions as a key factor.
“The country’s military establishment continues to corner a
disproportionate share of resources for itself, at the expense of
ordinary citizens,” he said, explaining that in 2022, as Pakistan
cut spending on areas like infrastructure and education, military
spending ballooned by 11%
RIKO DIQ PROJECT creates 8000 new jobs benefits economically
32.7 billion US dollar, settlement of 11billion disputes game
changer for pakistan
this deal infringment the right of peple of balochistan and
against the 1973 constitution
also time to protect the national interest not the investor
interest only
https://www.dawn.com/news/1741961/what-pakistan-can-learn-from-
singapore

https://www.dawn.com/news/1741959/the-cost-of-pakistans-shadow-
economy

https://www.dawn.com/news/1742086/delay-in-imf-deal-may-cause-
pakistan-to-pause-repayments-warns-report

https://www.dawn.com/news/1742303/delayed-imf-deal-with-
pakistan-blamed-on-political-instability

https://www.dawn.com/news/1742262/resilient-bitcoin-hits-9-month-
high-of-26533

https://www.dawn.com/news/1742851/pakistan-can-benefit-from-the-
saudi-iran-deal-if-it-puts-its-economic-house-in-order

https://www.dawn.com/news/1742806/textile-exports-plunge-almost-
30pc

https://www.dawn.com/news/1742807/petroleum-imports-fall-8pc

https://www.dawn.com/news/1743377/why-is-pakistan-facing-default

the reason why IMF or friendly nations are not coming forward to help
us in this dark hour is because of the growing political instability that is
tearing the country apartFahad Rauf, who is head of research at Ismail
Iqbal Securities in Karachi, says the economy has fallen victim to
political strife.You can’t expect economic stability without political
stability,” he says.

https://www.dawn.com/news/1743319/tyre-maker-suspends-
production-in-pakistan

https://www.dawn.com/news/1743322/current-account-deficit-
declines-68pc

https://www.dawn.com/news/1743232/govt-to-charge-the-rich-rs100-
more-for-fuel-to-finance-subsidy-for-the-poor-petroleum-minister

starting 1958 23 programs with IMF shows that how much pakistan is
addicted to laon's love
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