Wk 13 - Aviation Safety and Airport Management.

Airport - a large organized and maintained area of land where airlines operate and park their
aircrafts. Airport facilitates the aircrafts to take-off and land. The airlines can work smoothly when
airports provide ample parking place, Air Traffic Service, and other ancillary facilities.

Types of Airports

International Hubs − airports with world class facilities. They include convenient
connections for international and domestic passengers, ancillary facilities such as
hotels, shopping areas, conferencing and entertainment facilities, and
aircraft-maintenance bases.

Regional Hubs − operate regional airlines using small aircrafts to provide air connection in
the interiors of the country. Regional hubs act as operational bases for regional airlines.
They are capable of handling limited international traffic.

Individual Airports − status is reviewed at intervals of five years. Airport

Operations

Airport Security Operations − related to handling all security-related activities. Airport

police and security staff work to avoid any mishap at the airport.

Airport Maintenance Operations – involved in fixing or maintaining airport infrastructure,

facilities, and equipment. It involves renewing or repairing any part of the infrastructure,
and repairing any automatic equipment used at the airport.

Airport Public Relations − operations are about community affairs.

Commercial Handling and Development Operations − related to managing property

licensing, leases, and other issues.

Aircraft Rescue Operations − aircraft/airport accidents related operations.

Fire Fighting Operations − handling the accidents taken place due to fire.

An airport is mainly divided into two areas − Airside Area , Landside Area
Airside Area
It is the area beyond landside area inside the airport. It includes runways, taxiways, and
ramps.

1. Runway − area where aircraft takes off and lands. It has white markings, which help the
pilot during take-off and landing. It also has lamps on the sides to guide the pilot during
night. The vehicles other than the aircrafts are strictly prohibited to enter this area of the
airport.

2. Ramp − Also called Apron, this area is used for parking the aircrafts. It can be accessed
for boarding and alighting the aircraft. The airline staff or ground duty staff can access
this area.

3. Taxiway − It is a path on the airport that connects the ramp to the runway.

Landside Area
It is the area in the airport terminal and the area towards city. It has access to the city roads
and it contains parking area as well as public transport area.

1. Terminal − It is a part of airport building that where travelers come to board their flight or
arrive from a flight. There are security checking, baggage checking, amenities, and
waiting areas at the terminal.

2. Car Parking − This area is outside but adjacent to the terminal where vehicles can be
parked on chargeable basis.

Criteria for Airport Terminal Planning

1. Passenger flow and traffic peaking.

2. Minimum walking distance.
3. Level of service for passengers and sophistication.
4. Performance standards.
5. Area for Retailers: Duty free shops, food joints, and spas.
6. Area for Facility points such as Restrooms, ATM machines, and kiosks.
7. Easy access to retail area and facility points.
8. Compatibility of facilities with aircraft characteristics.
9. Ability to handle changes in technology and automation.
10. Expandability for future growth.
11. Area and processing time for checking-in, immigration/customs clearance, baggage
security screening, and baggage delivery.
 Airport − Terminal Configurations

The following configurations are adapted while designing the airport terminals −

Aviation Safety

Aviation risks and threats are a part of the daily operations of the aviation industry. They can
put passengers to face time delays, price hikes, uncertainty or even the loss of life. Though it
uses radars, which spot intrusion into the controlled airspace and other navigational aids, the
aircrafts face threats of losing its path. Since numerous passengers travel by air frequently,
there are objections related to risks, vulnerabilities, and threats.

Common Aviation Risk

Aviation risks include operational, strategic, compliance, or financial risks that than put the
assets into problem.
There can be several types of risks for aircraft as well as airport −
∙ Bad weather conditions for a flying aircraft
∙ Aircraft about to run out of fuel while in flight
∙ A person in the aircraft or airport needs medical aid critically
∙ Failure of electrical, electronics, or mechanical component
 ∙ Pilot’s mistake
∙ Bird-strike at the time of aircraft movement
∙ An inexperienced employee or unknown person at the airport
∙ Unscreened passengers or their articles allowed to board the aircraft ∙
Repayment of loan

Vulnerability in Aviation
∙ Access to airside area of the airport to non-traveler/non-staff people ∙ Poor
screening methods for passengers and baggage
∙ Poor aircraft or airport maintenance
∙ Overcrowding near adjacent gates at the time of departure
∙ Poor security in handling information regarding flight plan

Threats in Aviation
∙ Unattended or unclaimed baggage found at airport.
∙ A person carrying weapon without declaration.
∙ A person not cooperating with the security staff.
∙ A person carrying sharp objects with him.
∙ A call from an unknown person for destruction.
∙ A person with suspicious gestures and appearance.

Safety and Security in Aviation

The airport security systems and personnel works together towards the safety of the airport,
the aircraft, and also the safety of the passengers. To manage the airport as well as the
aircraft security, the following measures are employed −

1. Aircraft and airport employees are trained on security and safety issues, as well as crisis
handling procedures.

2. Aircrafts are equipped with emergency exit way and procedures for passengers.

3. Airport areas are monitored by Closed Circuit TV cameras.

4. A dedicated team of trained police force is employed for airport and aircraft safety.

5. The security staff takes the help of sniffer dogs to detect any unclaimed object lying
around the airport.

6. The airports are equipped with fire-fighting alarm and fire-extinguishing systems.
 7. Sensitive airside areas in airports, such as ramps and operational spaces, are restricted
from the general public.

8. Every traveler who arrives at the airport needs to enter into the airport only from the
Departure entry. The traveler can go in further only after showing a valid journey ticket,
an identity proof, and a passport if required.

9. Traveler check-in baggage and handbags are strictly screened through X-ray machines.

10. Travelers are screened by metal detectors before they board. But they can be
subjected to later screening if required.

11. Travelers are not permitted to enter the cockpit area of the aircraft.

Objects Prohibited in the Airport and Aircraft

1. Personal Stuff − Razors, scissors, manicure kits, knives, ropes or strings

2. Liquids − Personal water-bottle, flammable or non-flammable liquids, fuels, gels

3. Explosives − Gas cans, fireworks or fire-extinguishers

4. Food Items − Jellies, soups, syrups, dips, salad dressings, vinegar, sauces, and alcohol
(for check-in)

5. Tools − Crowbars, catapult, hammer, saw, drills and drill bits, screw-drivers, wrenches,
pliers, metal or plastic wires

6. Sports Equipment − Hockey sticks, cricket bats, bows and arrows

Disaster Management

If the prevention of accidents or incidents fails and some critical event still occurs, then the
disaster management team of the organization must try to limit the damage done to
stakeholders, property, the environment, and the organization itself by responding to the critical
situation.
 Critical Situation
The initial investigation reports might be vague till the facts are uncovered completely. The
crisis management team needs to get the correct report and take intelligent as well as
immediate actions to handle the disaster. If the loss is not handled appropriately, the media
accuses the organization for being irresponsible.

After handling the initial phase with immediate action, the organization then enters into the
resuming or restoring phase. It rebuilds its own reputation, refines the public perception, and
recovers the loss over property.

Accident Investigation

Accidents and incidents happen around the airports or while the aircraft is in transit. There can
be numerous reasons such as runway incursion or excursion, bad weather, failure of a
functional system component, loss of ground communication, and a lot more.

The authorities conduct investigation according to the international standards by visiting the
site and collecting vital information from the site as well as by retrieving the black box of the
aircraft. The sole purpose of the investigation is to find out the cause and to avoid repetition of
similar incident or accident in future.

An NGO named Aircraft Crashes Record Office (ACRO) at Geneva compiles statistics on
aviation accidents. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) is primarily focused on
preventing accidents. As such there are various organizations from each country to investigate
aviation related accidents.

Wk 14 - The Future of Transportation, Transportation Technology and Space Travel.

THE FUTURE OF TRANSPORTATION

- From drones to hover bikes and tunnels, take a look at the future of transportation where
sustainable and autonomous technology rule.
- Since early times, humans have sought ways to make traveling faster and more
convenient. First, we invented the wheel, then carts and wagons, steam power, and the
internal combustion engine.

The innovation continued with electric cars, bikes and autonomous vehicles. Ideas
that seemed to belong only to the realm of science fiction are being made a reality. Read on
to find out what’s coming next in the exciting future of transportation.
Three Concepts Driving the Future of Transportation

Today we are moving into new, smarter sources of energy, modes of transport and physical
and technological infrastructure to support these transportation innovations.

Three common themes in transportation innovation are:

1. smart technology
2. electrification
3. autonomy

Given the rapid expansion of these technologies in recent years, we can assume all will be
major contributors to our transportation future.

New Transportation Innovations

1. Autonomous aerial vehicles (AAVs)

• Will public transportation take to the skies? This could soon be a reality. Successful
demonstration flights of Autonomous aerial vehicles (AAVs) have been carried out already.
Although similar to drones, which are generally unmanned, AAVs are different. AAVs are
essentially autonomous human-carrying drones, designed for transporting passengers.

• Most configurations of these flying vehicles use Vertical Take Off and Landing (VTOL)
through horizontal rotors, which require no runway. The idea is to put commuters into AAVs,
taking them off congested roadways and to their destinations on direct routes, greatly cutting
travel times.

The Ehang 184 is a concept for 5G-connected urban air mobility, controlled through a
smart city command center, and is set to be a world’s first Air Taxi to debut in Qatar for the
FIFA World Cup in 2022.

2. Hoverbikes

• This concept is comparable to an AAV, in that it uses a VTOL platform. However, instead of
being unmanned, a human operator rides and controls the hoverbike.

The form factor resembles a common motorbike with four rotors (quadcopter) capable of
carrying one person. Again, the aim is to provide a method of mobility that alleviates street
traffic for short distance travel.
Hoversurf, a Russian company, has developed the S3 2019 Hoverbike, a battery-powered,
one piece carbon fiber frame, capable of flying 96 KMph at 33 feet of altitude. At a cost of
$150,000 per bike, the hoverbike won’t be an option for daily commuters any time soon.

3. Self-driving Taxis

• Autonomous cars are on the cusp of widespread deployment, although largely still
constrained to testing environments and pilot projects. They are on roads today and are active
in cities like Las Vegas, where Lyft offers autonomous rides for a fare, in their fleet of 30
‘Aptiv’ vehicles.

These vehicles represent more than just EV and autonomous efficiencies, but rather a Smart
Mobility mentality. Using ICT these futuristic taxis communicate with each other, with
smart infrastructure and IoT, with customers and gather mass amounts of data to drive
further efficiencies while they move around Smart Cities.

4. The Hyperloop

• The idea of the Hyperloop was first envisioned by Elon Musk in 2012. This future mode
of transportation is designed for longer haul transportation between cities, countries or even
continents.
• The principle of the Hyperloop is based on the movement of people in capsules or
pods that travel and high speeds though tubes over long distances. Inside the tubes is a low
pressure environment void of air, while the pods use magnetic levitation (MagLev) technology
for propulsion.
● The low pressure and MagLev, create a very low friction environment allowing the pods to
travel upwards of 600 MPH.
● Virgin Hyperloop One currently has a 500 meter test track in Apex, Nevada, called the
DevLoop.
● Hyperloop projects are now being considered in India, the US, the UK, Canada, and
Mexico.
● Other transportation innovation includes differing version of autonomous MagLev trains
suspended above city streets; cable cars far above urban skylines; hybrid cars with wings;
electric bikes, skateboards and other personal mobility devices; autonomous busses; even
Falcon 9 Rockets to leverage the speed of space flight to get people around the globe
quickly. Many of these are far into development and even wider implementation.

What will happen to today’s transportation?

It is widely believed that the individual ownership of cars globally will decrease significantly
over the coming decades. Currently, the U.S. has the highest concentration of cars per capita
worldwide, with just over 800 cars per 1,000 people in 2014, higher than Canada, Europe and
the Pacific. The European Union figure as of 2017 is 602 per 1,000 inhabitants.

In Canada, a 2019 study by automotive data company Canadian Black Book reveals that 35%
of Canadians aged 18-34 plan to reduce their household fleet over the next two years, and
41% of that same age group plan to do so in the next 10 years.
 The Road to Innovation

While the future is anything but clear, it’s the beginning of new breakthroughs and innovations
of all kinds. Although travelers in the U.S. might never see a high-speed rail network that is
capable of matching the speeds of Japan’s bullet train or ride in a single-passenger pod
around their nearest airport, these developments — as well as some early conceptualizations
and prototypes — are proof of fun and exciting times ahead.

TRANSPORTATION TECHNOLOGY

Transportation technology is in the midst of a revolution. New technologies are improving the
efficiency of existing transportation methods, while new inventions are poised to entirely
reshape the way we move.

Five technologies have risen to the forefront of the latest transportation revolution.

The Internet of Things

The Internet of Things assumes that all people and items can be connected through networks.
These vast connected networks could potentially influence many aspects of our daily
driving:
• Route Planning — Sensors in the vehicle communicate with GPS services to determine the
best route, which is then displayed on a head-up display that physically directs the driver along
route.
• Accident Prevention — Sensors alert drivers to the position of other vehicles on the road
and prevent collisions. The cars can even override driver controls to avoid an accident.
• Safety — A series of sensors in the seat belt can track the driver’s physiological indicators
and determine whether the driver is fatigued or intoxicated. If the driver fails any of the tests
performed by the sensors, the vehicle becomes inoperable.

Autonomous Cars

The advent of self-driving driving cars such as the Google car and Tesla are making the
idea of autonomous cars a reality. Several, states across the country have begun passing laws
to regulate the technology and encourage its development.

However, the safety and public acceptance of these autonomous vehicles have been a
question of public interest and concern. Moreover, a series of accidents in the summer of 2016
increased the debate about the safety of autonomous vehicles.

With continued research and development, autonomous car technology will likely become a
safer alternative to human drivers, with additional economic and environmental benefits.
Removing human control from the vehicle will potentially help cars reach their designed fuel
economy, leading to less gas consumption and reduced cost of vehicle ownership.
Lightweight Vehicle Materials

Automobile manufacturers are under increasing pressure to deliver vehicles with high
performance and excellent efficiency. Studies have shown that reducing the weight of the
vehicle by as little as 10% can improve fuel economy by 6% or more.

The federal government estimates that if just 25% of cars used lighter-weight materials, the
country would consume 5 billion fewer gallons of gas each year by 2030.

The focus of lightweight materials research is to move away from cast iron and steel. The
leading candidates to replace these metals in the near future are magnesium aluminum alloys
and carbon fiber construction. However, questions still exist about whether the materials can
hold up under the forces of highway accidents, and whether manufacturers will be able to
produce lightweight materials at a low enough cost for automakers.

On-Demand Ride Services

Less than two years ago, Uber and Lyft dramatically changed the way people in large cities
find transportation. With an app, riders can summon a vehicle to their location, any time they
want it. The services have already eroded the profits of cab companies and decreased DUI
rates in many cities.

While on-demand ride services are a hit with riders, there are serious legal and ethical
questions that are causing governments to re-evaluate authorization for Uber and Lyft to work
in their jurisdictions. The primary concern is that Uber and Lyft drivers are considered contract
earners and not employees, leaving them with the burden of income tax but few benefits. On
the other hand, safer roads and greater flexibility are attractive for riders.

SPACE TOURISM

Space tourism, recreational space travel, either on established government-owned vehicles

such as the Russian Soyuz and the International Space Station (ISS) or on vehicles fielded
by private companies. Since the flight of the world’s first space tourist, American
businessman Dennis Tito, on April 28, 2001, space tourism has gained new prominence as
more suborbital and orbital tourism opportunities have become available.

Orbital Space Tourism

• The advent of space tourism occurred at the end of the 1990s with a deal between the
Russian company MirCorp and the American company Space Adventures Ltd. MirCorp was a
private venture in charge of the space station Mir.

• To generate income for maintenance of the aging space station, MirCorp decided to sell a trip
to Mir, and Tito became its first paying passenger. However, before Tito could make his trip, the
decision was made to deorbit Mir, and—after the intervention of Space Adventures Ltd.—the
mission was diverted to the ISS.
• Tito, who paid $20 million for his flight on the Russian spacecraft Soyuz TM 32, spent
seven days on board the ISS and is considered the world’s first space tourist. However,
given the arduous training required for his mission, Tito objected to the use of the word tourist,
and since his flight the term spaceflight participant has been more often used to distinguish
commercial space travelers from career astronauts.

• Orbital space tourism continued to grow following Tito’s mission, with flights to the ISS by
South African computer millionaire Mark Shuttleworth in 2002 and American businessman
Gregory Olsen in 2005.

• These travelers were followed by Iranian-born American entrepreneur Anousheh

Ansari, who became the fourth spaceflight participant and the first female fee-paying space
traveler when she visited the ISS in September 2006.

• The following year American billionaire Charles Simonyi joined the ranks of spaceflight
participants when he shared a ride with two cosmonauts on board Soyuz TMA-10 for a
10-day stay on the ISS, and Simonyi made a second flight in 2009.

• The sixth spaceflight participant, American video game developer Richard Garriott, was
launched in October 2008. In making his flight, Garriott became the first second generation
American in space, since his father, Owen Garriott, was a former astronaut.
(Cosmonauts Aleksandr Volkov and his son Sergey were the first father and-son space
travelers. Sergey Volkov was on the ISS when Garriott arrived.)

• No spaceflight participants have flown to the ISS since Canadian entrepreneur Guy
Laliberté in 2009, but Space Adventures announced that two passengers will fly to the ISS in
2021. Since 2007 Space Adventures has offered a spaceflight around the Moon on a Soyuz
spacecraft for a fee of $100 million.

Suborbital Space Tourism

• Although the orbital space tourism industry garnered much media attention following Tito’s
flight, other companies were also hard at work trying to make space tourism a profitable
proposition by developing suborbital vehicles designed to take passengers to an altitude of 100
km (62 miles).

• In addition to the goal of making space tourism commercially viable, the companies were
competing for the Ansari X Prize, a $10 million reward offered by the X Prize Foundation to the
first nongovernmental organization to launch a reusable crewed spacecraft into space twice
within two weeks. (A portion of the prize money was donated by Anousheh Ansari and her
brother-in-law, Iranian-born American entrepreneur Amir Ansari.)

• On October 4, 2004, SpaceShipOne, funded by Virgin Galactic and designed by American

engineer Burt Rutan of Scaled Composites, won the X Prize and, in doing so, ushered in a
new era of commercial crewed spaceflight and space tourism.
 • In 2004 the U.S. Commercial Space Launch Amendments Act (CSLAA) provided guidelines
for regulating the safety of commercial human spaceflight in the United States under the
auspices of the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA).

• Under the CSLAA, FAA representatives will attend every launch, evaluate every landing, and
work alongside the space tourism operators; however, the FAA will not be permitted to impose
any safety regulations until 2023 unless there is a serious incident.

• The guidelines require space tourism operators to inform spaceflight participants in writing
about the risks of launch and reentry and about the safety record of the launch vehicle. The
CSLAA guidelines also require spaceflight participants to provide informed consent to
participate in launch and reentry.

As the space tourism industry evolves, the ranks of spaceflight participants will grow, and
suborbital and orbital flights will inevitably give way to lunar excursions and trips to Mars and
beyond, by which time space tourism will be operating as a full fledged industry capable of truly
opening the frontier of space.

Week 15 – Economic and Environmental Impacts of Transportation

TRANSPORTATION AND THE ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

Development can be defined as improving the welfare of a society through appropriate social,
political and economic conditions. The expected outcomes are quantitative and qualitative
improvements in human capital (e.g. income and education levels) as well as physical capital
such as infrastructures (utilities, transport, telecommunications).

Efficient transportation reduces costs in many economic sectors, while inefficient transportation
increases these costs. In addition, the impacts of transportation are not always intended and can
have unforeseen or unintended consequences. For instance, congestion is often an unintended
consequence in the provision of free or low-cost transport infrastructure to the users.

However, congestion is also an indication of a growing economy where capacity and

infrastructure have difficulties keeping up with the rising mobility demands. Transport carries an
important social and environmental load, which cannot be neglected. Assessing the economic
importance of transportation requires the categorization of the types of impacts it conveys.

These involve core (the physical characteristics of transportation), operational and

geographical dimensions:

● Core. The most fundamental impacts of transportation-related to the physical capacity to

convey passengers and goods and the associated costs to support this mobility. This
involves the setting of routes enabling new or existing interactions between economic
entities.
● Operational. Improvement in the time performance, notably in terms of reliability, as well as
reduced loss or damage. This implies a better utilization level of existing transportation
 assets benefiting its users as passengers and freight are conveyed more rapidly and with
fewer delays.
● Geographical. Access to a wider market base where economies of scale in production,
distribution, and consumption can be improved. Increases in productivity from the access
to a larger and more diverse base of inputs (raw materials, parts, energy or labor) and
broader markets for diverse outputs (intermediate and finished goods).

The economic importance of the transportation industry can thus be assessed from a
macroeconomic and microeconomic perspective:

● At the macroeconomic level (the importance of transportation for a whole economy),

transportation and the mobility it confers are linked to a level of output, employment, and
income within a national economy. In many developed countries, transportation accounts
between 6% and 12% of the GDP. Looking at a more comprehensive level to include
logistics costs, such costs can account between 6% and 25% of the GDP. Further, the
value of all transportation assets, including infrastructures and vehicles, can easily
account for half the GDP of an advanced economy.

● At the microeconomic level (the importance of transportation for specific parts of the
economy) transportation is linked to producer, consumer, and distribution costs. The
importance of specific transport activities and infrastructure can thus be assessed for each
sector of the economy. Usually, higher income levels are associated with a greater share
of transportation in consumption expenses. Transportation accounts on average between
10% and 15% of household expenditures, while it accounts for around 4% of the costs of
each unit of output in manufacturing, but this figure varies greatly according to
sub-sectors.

The added value and employment effects of transport services usually extend beyond those
generated by that activity; indirect effects are salient. For instance, transportation companies
purchase a part of their inputs (fuel, supplies, maintenance) from local suppliers. The production
of these inputs generates additional value-added and employment in the local economy.
The suppliers in turn purchase goods and services from other local firms. There are further
rounds of local re-spending which generate additional value-added and employment. Similarly,
households that receive income from employment in transport activities spend some of their
income on local goods and services.
These purchases result in additional local jobs and added value. Some of the household income
from these additional jobs is in turn spent on local goods and services, thereby creating further
jobs and income for local households. As a result of these successive rounds of re-spending in
the framework of local purchases, the overall impact on the economy exceeds the initial round of
output, income, and employment generated by passenger and freight transport activities.

Thus, from a general standpoint the economic impacts of transportation can be direct,
indirect and induced:

● Direct impacts. The outcome of improved capacity and efficiency where transport
provides employment, added value, larger markets as well as time and costs
improvements. The overall demand of an economy is increasing.
 ● Indirect impacts. The outcome of improved accessibility and economies of scale. Indirect
value added and jobs are the result of local purchases by companies directly dependent
upon transport activity. Transport activities are responsible for a wide range of indirect
value added and employment effects, through the linkages of transport with other economic
sectors (e.g. office supply firms, equipment, and parts suppliers, maintenance and repair
services, insurance companies, consulting and other business services).

● Induced impacts. The outcome of the economic multiplier effects where the price of
commodities, goods or services drops and/or their variety increases. For instance, the
steel industry requires the cost-efficient import of iron ore and coal for the blast furnaces
and export activities for finished products such as steel booms and coils. Manufacturers
and retail outlets and distribution centers handling imported containerized cargo rely on
efficient transport and seaport operations.

Transportation links together the factors of production in a complex web of relationships

between producers and consumers. The outcome is commonly a more efficient division of
production by the exploitation of geographical comparative advantages, as well as the means to
develop economies of scale and scope.
The productivity of space, capital and labor are thus enhanced with the efficiency of distribution
and personal mobility.

Economic growth is increasingly linked with transport developments, namely

infrastructures, but also with managerial expertise, which is crucial for logistics. Thus, although
transportation is an infrastructure intensive activity, hard assets must be supported by an array of
soft assets, namely labor, management and information systems.

Decisions must be made about how to use and operate transportation systems in a manner that
optimizes benefits and minimize costs and inconvenience.

Transportation and Economic Opportunities

Transportation developments that have taken place since the beginning of the industrial
revolution have been linked to growing economic opportunities. At each stage of societal
development, a particular transport technology has been developed or adapted with an array of
impacts. Transportation influences economic opportunities for production and consumption.
Historically, six major waves of economic development where a specific transport
technology created new economic, market and social opportunities can be suggested:

1. Seaports. Technological and commercial developments have incited a greater reliance on

the oceans as an economic and circulation space. Seaports were associated with the
early stages of European expansion from the 16th to the 18th centuries, commonly known
as the age of exploration.
 They supported the early development of international trade through colonial empires but
were constrained by limited inland access. Later in the industrial revolution, many ports
became important heavy industrial platforms. With globalization and containerization,
seaports increased their importance as a support to international trade and global supply
chains. Simple economies are usually associated with bulk cargoes while complex
economies generate more containerized flows.

2. Rivers and canals. River trade has prevailed through history and even canals were built
where no significant altitude change existed since lock technology was rudimentary. The
first stage of the industrial revolution in the late 18th and early 19th centuries was linked
with the development of canal systems with locks in Western Europe and North America,
mainly to transport heavy goods. This permitted the development of rudimentary and
constrained inland distribution systems, many of which are still used today.

3. Railways. The second stage of the industrial revolution in the 19th century was linked with
the development and implementation of rail systems enabling more flexible and high
capacity inland transportation systems. This opened substantial economic and social
opportunities through the extraction of resources, the settlement of regions and the
growing mobility of freight and passengers.

4. Roads. The 20th century saw the rapid development of comprehensive road transportation
systems, such as national highway systems, and of automobile manufacturing as a major
economic sector. Individual transportation became widely available to mid-income social
classes, particularly after the Second World War. This was associated with significant
economic opportunities to service industrial and commercial markets with reliable
door-to-door deliveries. The automobile also permitted new forms of social opportunities,
particularly with suburbanization.

5. Airways and information technologies. The second half of the 20th century saw the
development of global air and telecommunication networks in conjunction with economic
globalization. New organizational and managerial forms became possible, especially in
the rapidly developing realm of logistics and supply chain management. Although
maritime transportation is the physical linchpin of globalization, air transportation and IT
support the accelerated mobility of passengers, specialized cargoes and their associated
information flows.

No single transport mode has been solely responsible for economic growth. Instead, modes have
been linked with the economic functions they support and the geography in which growth was
taking place. The first trade routes established a rudimentary system of distribution and
transactions that would eventually be expanded by long-distance maritime shipping networks and
the setting of the first multinational corporations managing these flows.

Major flows of international migration that occurred since the 18th century were linked with the
expansion of international and continental transport systems that radically shaped emerging
economies such as in North America and Australia. Transport played a catalytic role in these
migrations, transforming the economic and social geography of many nations.

Transportation as an Economic Factor

Contemporary trends have underlined that economic development has become less dependent
on relations with the environment (resources) and more dependent on relations across space.
While resources remain the foundation of economic activities, the commodification of the
economy has been linked with higher levels of material flows of all kinds. Concomitantly,
resources, capital, and even labor have shown increasing levels of mobility.

This is particularly the case for multinational firms that can benefit from transport improvements
in two significant markets:

Commodity market. Improvement in the efficiency with which firms have access to raw
materials and parts as well as to their respective customers. Thus, transportation expands
opportunities to acquire and sell a variety of commodities necessary for industrial and
manufacturing systems.
Labor market. Improvement in access to labor and a reduction in access costs, mainly by
improved commuting (local scale) or the use of lower-cost labor (global scale).

● Transportation provides market accessibility by linking producers and consumers so that

transactions can take place. A common fallacy in assessing the importance and impact of
transportation on the economy is to focus only on transportation costs, which tend to be
relatively low; in the range of 5 to 10% of the value of a good.
● Transportation is an economic factor of production of goods and services, implying that it
is fundamental in their generation, even if it accounts for a small share of input costs. This
implies that irrespective of the cost, an activity cannot take place without the transportation
factor and the mobility it provides. Thus, relatively small changes in transport cost,
capacity and performance can have substantial impacts on dependent economic activities.

An efficient transport system with modern infrastructures favors many economic changes, most
of them positive. The major impacts of transport on economic factors can be categorized as
follows:

1. Geographic specialization. Improvements in transportation and communication favor a

process of geographical specialization that increases productivity and spatial interactions.
An economic entity tends to produce goods and services with the most appropriate
combination of capital, labor, and raw materials. Through geographic specialization
supported by efficient transportation, economic productivity is promoted. This process is
known in economic theory as comparative advantages that have enabled the economic
specialization of regions.
2. Scale and scope of production. An efficient transport system offering cost, time and
reliability advantages enables goods to be transported over longer distances. This
facilitates mass production through economies of scale because larger markets can be
accessed. The concept of ―just-in-time‖ in supply chain management has further
expanded the productivity of production and distribution with benefits such as lower
 inventory levels and better responses to shifting market conditions. Thus, the more
efficient transportation becomes, the larger the markets that can be serviced and the
larger the scale of production. This results in lower unit costs.

3. Increased competition. When transport is efficient, the potential market for a given
product (or service) increases, and so does competition. A wider array of goods and
services becomes available to consumers through competition which tends to reduce
costs and promote quality and innovation. Globalization has clearly been associated with
a competitive environment that spans the world and enables consumers to have access to
a wider range of goods and services.

4. Increased land value. Land which is adjacent or serviced by good transport services
generally has greater value due to the utility it confers. Consumers can have access to a
wider range of services and retail goods while residents can have better accessibility to
employment, services, and social networks, all of which transcribes in higher land value.
Irrespective of if used or not, the accessibility conveyed by transportation is impacting the
value of land. In some cases, due to the externalities there generate transportation activities
can lower land value, particularly for residential activities. Land located near airports and
highways, near noise and pollution sources, will thus be impacted by corresponding
diminishing land value.

ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT OF TRANSPORTATION

Technical and economic developments during the last decades of the millennium have given rise
to increased mobility of people and goods. As a result, the transport sector has undergone
dramatic expansion during this period. In order to achieve long-term sustainable development,
new demands are being placed on transport sector actors to promote greater environmental
compatibility both individually and jointly.

The Issue of Transport and the Environment

The issue of transportation and the environment is paradoxical in nature since transportation
conveys substantial socioeconomic benefits, but at the same time transportation is impacting
environmental systems. From one side, transportation activities support increasing mobility
demands for passengers and freight, while on the other, transport activities are associated with
environmental impacts. Further, environmental conditions have an impact on transportation
systems in terms of operating conditions and infrastructure requirements such as construction
and maintenance (see Transportation and Space for a review of these constraints).

The growth of passenger and freight mobility has expanded the role of transportation as a source
of emission of pollutants and their multiple impacts on the environment. These impacts fall within
three categories:

1. Direct impacts. The immediate consequence of transport activities on the environment

where the cause and effect relationship are generally clear and well understood. For
instance, noise and carbon monoxide emissions are known to have direct harmful effects.
 2. Indirect impacts. The secondary (or tertiary) effects of transport activities on
environmental systems. They are often of a higher consequence than direct impacts, but
the involved relationships are often misunderstood and more difficult to establish. For
instance, particulates, which are mostly the outcome of incomplete combustion in an
internal combustion engine, are indirectly linked with respiratory and cardiovascular
problems since they contribute, among other factors, to such conditions.
3. Cumulative impacts. The additive, multiplicative or synergetic consequences of transport
activities. They consider the varied effects of direct and indirect impacts on an ecosystem,
which are often unpredictable. Climate change, with complex causes and consequences,
is the cumulative impact of several natural and anthropogenic factors, in which
transportation plays a role. The share of transportation in global CO2 emissions is
increasing. 22% of global CO2 emissions are attributed to the transport sector, with this
share is around 25% for advanced economies such as the United States.

Environmental Dimensions

Transportation activities support increasing mobility demands for passengers and freight, notably
in urban areas. But transport activities have resulted in growing levels of motorization and
congestion. As a result, the transportation sector is becoming increasingly linked to
environmental problems.

Climate change

The greenhouse effect is a fundamental component of the regulation of the global climate and is
a naturally occurring process that involves partially retaining heat in the earth’s atmosphere.
These include carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O) and halocarbons,
gases that accumulate in the atmosphere long enough to reach a homogeneous composition
across the world. Thus, irrespective of the location their concentration is similar. The quantity of
conventional greenhouse gases released into the atmosphere has increased substantially since
the industrial revolution and particularly over the last 25 years.

Air quality

Highway vehicles, marine engines, locomotives, and aircraft are the sources of pollution in the
form of gas and particulate matter emissions. They affect air quality and cause damage to
human health. The most common include lead (Pb), carbon monoxide (CO), nitrogen oxides
(NOx), silicon tetrafluoride (SF6), benzene and volatile components (BTX), heavy metals (zinc,
chrome, copper, and cadmium) and particulate matters (ash, dust). Lead emissions have
declined substantially in the last decades as its use as an anti-knock agent for gasoline was
banned in most of the world from the 1980s. Only a few countries such as Myanmar, Iraq and
North Korea are still using leaded fuel. The main factors behind this ban were that tetraethyl lead
(the form used as a fuel additive) was associated with neurotoxic effects on human beings and
that it impaired catalytic converters.

Smog is a mixture of solid and liquid fog and smoke particles formed through the accumulation of
carbon monoxide, ozone, hydrocarbons, volatile organic compounds, nitrogen oxides, sulfur
oxide, water, particulates, and other chemical pollutants. The reduction of visibility caused by
smog has a number of adverse impacts on the quality of life and the attractiveness of tourist
sites.
Air quality issues have been comprehensively addressed in advanced economies, with
substantial declines in the emissions of a wide range of pollutants. In developing economies,
rapid motorization has shifted the concern to the large cities of China and India among those the
most impacted by the deterioration of air quality.

Noise

Noise represents the general effect of irregular and chaotic sounds on people as well as animal
life. Basically, noise is an undesirable sound. The acoustic measure of the intensity of noise is
expressed in decibel (dB) with a scale ranging from 1 dB to 120 dB. Long term exposure to
noise levels above 75 decibels seriously hampers hearing and affects human physical and
psychological well-being. Noise emanating from the movement of transport vehicles and the
operations of ports, airports, and railyards affects human health, through an increase in the risk
of cardiovascular diseases. Ambient noise is a frequent result of road transportation in urban
areas, which is the cumulative outcome of all the noise generated by vehicles (ranging from 45 to
65 dB), which impairs the quality of life and thus property values. Falling land values nearby
acute noise sources such as airports are often noted. Many noise regulations impose mitigation if
noise reaches a defined level, such as sound walls and other soundproofing techniques.

Water quality

Transport activities have an impact on hydrological conditions and water quality. Fuel, chemicals
and other hazardous particulates discarded from aircraft, cars, trucks, and trains or from port and
airport terminal operations can contaminate hydrographic systems.

Because demand for maritime shipping has increased, marine transport emissions represent the
most important segment of water quality impact of the transportation sector. The main effects of
marine transport operations on water quality predominantly arise from dredging, waste, ballast
waters and oil spills. Dredging is the process of deepening harbor channels by removing
sediments from the bed of a body of water. Dredging is essential to create and maintain sufficient
water depth for shipping operations and port accessibility. Dredging activities have a two-fold
negative impact on the marine environment. They modify the hydrology by creating turbidity that
can affect marine biological diversity. The contaminated sediments and water raised by dredging
require spoil disposal sites and decontamination techniques. Waste generated by the operations
of vessels at sea or at ports causes environmental problems since they can contain a very high
level of bacteria that can be hazardous for public health as well as marine ecosystems when
discharged in waters.

Soil quality

The environmental impact of transportation on soil quality particularly concerns soil erosion and
soil contamination. Coastal transport facilities such as ports have significant impacts on soil
erosion. Shipping activities are modifying the scale and scope of wave actions leading to
damage in confined channels such as river banks. Highway construction or lessening surface
grades for port and airport developments have led to an important loss of fertile land. Soil
contamination can occur through the use of toxic materials by the transport industry. Fuel and oil
spills from motor vehicles are washed on roadsides and enter the soil. Chemicals used for the
preservation of wooden railroad ties may enter the soil.

Biodiversity

Transportation also influences biodiversity. The need for construction materials and the
development of land-based transportation has led to deforestation. Many transport routes have
required draining land, thus reducing wetland areas and driving-out water plant species. The
need to maintain road and rail right-of-way or to stabilize slope along transport facilities has
resulted in restricting the growth of certain plants or has produced changes in plants with the
introduction of new species. Many animal species are becoming endangered as a result of
changes in their natural habitats and reduction of ranges due to the fragmentation of their habitat
by transportation infrastructures.

Land take

Transportation facilities have an impact on the urban landscape. The development of port and
airport infrastructure is a significant feature of the urban and peri-urban built environment. Social
and economic cohesion can be severed when new transport facilities such as elevated train and
highway structures cut across an existing urban community. Arteries or transport terminals can
define urban borders and produce segregation. Major transport facilities can affect the quality of
urban life by creating physical barriers, increasing noise levels, generating odors, reducing urban
aesthetic and affecting the built heritage.

Mitigation of Environmental Impact

Sustainable transport

Sustainable transport is transport with either lower environmental impact per passenger, per
distance or higher capacity. Typically sustainable transport modes are rail, bicycle and walking.

Road-rail parallel layout

Road-Rail Parallel Layout is a design option to reduce the environmental impact of new
transportation routes by locating railway tracks alongside a highway. In 1984 the Paris—Lyon
high-speed rail route in France had about 14% parallel layout with the highway, and in 2002,
70% parallel layout was achieved with the Cologne–Frankfurt high-speed rail line.

Involvement

Mitigation does not entirely involve large-scale changes such as road construction, but everyday
people can contribute. Walking, cycling trips, short or non-commute trips, can be an alternate
mode of transportation when traveling short or even long distances. A multi-modal trip involving
walking, a bus ride, and bicycling may be counted solely as a transit trip. Economic evaluations
of transportation investments often ignore the true impacts of increased vehicular traffic—
incremental parking, traffic accidents, and consumer costs—and the real benefits of alternative
modes of transport.
Most travel models do not account for the negative impacts of additional vehicular traffic that
result from roadway capacity expansion and overestimate the economic benefits of urban
highway projects. Transportation planning indicators, such as average traffic speeds, congestion
delays, and roadway level of service, measure mobility rather than accessibility.

Week 16 – The Growth of Transportation Infrastructure

Transport is vital to the well-functioning of economic activities and a key to ensuring social well
being and cohesion of populations. Transport ensures everyday mobility of people and is crucial
to the production and distribution of goods. Adequate infrastructure is a fundamental precondition
for transport systems. In their endeavour to facilitate transport, however, decision makers in
governments and international organizations face difficult challenges.

These include the existence of physical barriers or hindrances, such as insufficient or inadequate
transport infrastructures, bottlenecks and missing links, as well as lack of funds to remove them.
Solving these problems is not an easy task. It requires action on the part of the governments
concerned, actions that are coordinated with other governments at international level.
Transportation Infrastructures are foundational structures and systems for transporting people
and goods. The following are the most common types of transport infrastructure:

1. Roads – such as streets, avenues and highways

2. Railroads – include high speed rail, subways and elevated railways such as cable cars

3. Walkways – paths for walking such as sidewalks, trails and pedestrian zones

4. Bridges and tunnels for vehicles, trains and pedestrians

5. Stations – railway stations and similar facilities such as bus stations

6. Airports – terminal, runways and related services such as air control tower

7. Air Routes – the management of air routes and related services such as air traffic
control, aeronautical meteorology, air navigation systems, air space management, air
traffic flow and capacity management

8. Waterways – navigable waterways such as canals

9. Ports – harbors where ships can dock and transfer people and cargo. These
may include passenger facilities known as seaports

10. Cycling infrastructure – infrastructure for bicycle such as bicycle highways, bike
paths and bike lanes
 11. Living Streets – streets designed for multiple use by restricting the speed of vehicles
and giving pedestrians right of way. Living streets are often designated for children,
recreation and green spaces such as community gardens

Issue: The Enduring Challenge of Congestion

Congestion is likely to remain as one of the ongoing issues in transport geography because there
are unprecedented demands for transportation being generated by a global economy that is ever
more dependent upon mobility in part due to increase in living standards. The causes of
congestion are well understood, even if the solutions are not. Congestion occurs across modes
and locations and arises from two causes.

● The first and most important is when demand for mobility exceeds the capacity of the
transport system.
● Second, when random but predictable events bring about a temporary service
disruption, such as an accident or a natural hazard such as flooding.

In the case of the second set of causes, it is possible to mitigate their effects if the occurrence is
frequent, such as accidents, or if the risks are high, as for example of flooding. A common and
attractive solution is to increase capacity. However, increasing capacity engenders a hidden
demand, so that adding lanes to an expressway tends to attract even more circulation.
Furthermore, demand is increasing consistently, so that the practicality of this solution may be
questioned.

The Life Cycle of Transport Infrastructure

Regardless of the specific solutions to congestion that are considered, increasing demand is
placing unprecedented requests for investments on transport infrastructures. A major question
confronting all countries around the world is how to finance the construction and maintenance of
transport infrastructures. As economies of scale are applied to transport systems, such as larger
containerships or double stacked rail corridors, capital requirements increase in proportion.

Governments have traditionally been the primary source of funding in the transport sector, but the
costs of keeping pace with the growth in demand are making it difficult for even the richest
countries to provide public funding on the scale required to meet expectations about the mobility
of passengers and freight.

Capital requirements are particularly prevalent on both sides of the infrastructure life cycle
spectrum. Over this matter the highways in China and North America represent two salient cases.
For China, the last two decades has seen an impressive level of highway construction with the
setting of a national highway network, the longest in the world.

Comparatively, the American Interstate highway system is nearing a phase in its life cycle where
a substantial amount of capital investment will be required to upgrade the system and maintain its
operability, including thousands of aging highway bridges. While most of the Interstate is publicly
funded, almost all Chinese highways were funded by private interests that are using tolls to
recover their investments.

Irrespective of the context, the issue of the role of private and public actors in transport
infrastructure as well as pricing mechanisms will remain salient:

1. Public-private partnerships and completely private solutions are one set of solutions. For
many developing economies this the main option, since public finances are usually
insufficient for the high level of capital investment required by modern transport
infrastructure. Thus, private involvement in the provision of transport infrastructure is to be
expected. Several models are already been implemented: BOT (Build-Operate
Transfer), where the private sector builds and operates a facility or system and then
transfers it back to the government after an agreed period; BLT (Build-Lease-Transfer)
where after building a facility, it is leased for a fixed period and finally transferred back;
ROT (Rehabilitate-Operate-Transfer) where the private party refurbishes an existing facility
to be operated for a term prior to be turned back to the state.

2. Pricing. Another approach that is gaining momentum is charging for the use of transport
infrastructure. Several segments of the transport system are privately owned and operated
such as maritime shipping and air transportation implying that pricing is generally set by
market forces. Still, many transport infrastructures such are roads and airports are wholly
or partially owned by the public sector. Pricing is becoming an important feature of
transport planning in urban areas where common use transport infrastructures are under
high demand. Whether it is cordon pricing, congestion pricing, yield management or tolling,
road users are being forced to pay for their use of roads and limited price elasticity has
been observed so far. With the growing concerns over the environment, charging for the
externalities of transport modes is becoming a reality in many jurisdictions. It remains to be
seen about how effective these alternatives are and their effects on travel behavior.

Most transport infrastructure projects are long term but are typified by high capital investment
requirements being incurred over a short initial phase for securing land, rights of way and
constructing infrastructure. Even if transport infrastructure can be built and expanded in
phases, most private enterprises cannot take a long-term perspective because they need to
cover their expenses and recover their capital investments over short periods of time. Further,
the maintenance of transport infrastructure can be subject to different approaches:

1. Reactive. The standard approach when maintenance is performed after infrastructure

damage or failure. While it imposes less financial burden, the disadvantage of this
approach is the loss of capacity while maintenance is being performed. It is particularly
prevalent for public infrastructures such as roads since the public sector is reluctant to
commit resources.
2. Preventive. Maintenance is performed on a regular basis to ensure that the transport
infrastructure operates according to defined parameters and assumptions in terms of
lifespan. This form of maintenance can be capital intensive since it could involve
unnecessary investments.
 3. Proactive. Maintenance is performed before an infrastructure is predicted to be damaged or
fail. This requires monitoring of the infrastructure and the capability to accurately expect
damage or failure at a certain point in time and under specific usage and environmental
conditions.

With the growing unwillingness or inability of the public sector to fund and provide transport
infrastructure, new forms of infrastructure provision, maintenance and operation need to be
achieved. This is where the financial sector, particularly long-term investment funds (such as
pension funds and sovereign wealth funds) can be involved with a better synchronism between
the capital and time horizons of transport infrastructure projects.

Eventually, due to technological obsolescence, public policy or commercial changes,

transportation infrastructure can reach the end of its life cycle. The challenge becomes how to
recover and reuse the existing footprint, which can take many forms. For linear infrastructure
such as canals, rail lines and roads, the right of way can be kept and used by another transport
mode. For terminals such as ports, warehouse and rail stations, the facility can be converted to
any urban use including parks, residential or commercial facilities.

The real estate value of the footprint is often a determining factor in the incentive to re-purpose
transportation infrastructure since it is competing with other uses. This underlines that
transportation infrastructure in remote or low-density areas is often simply abandoned at the end
of its life cycle as the cost to re purpose may exceed the potential benefit. In the coming decades,
particularly in advanced economies, large tracts of transport infrastructure will need to be
reconverted to other uses, creating several opportunities for innovation in spatial planning.

ROADMAP FOR TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT FOR METRO MANILA

AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS (REGION III AND REGION IV-A)

The Roadmap for Transport Infrastructure Development for Metro Manila and its Surrounding
Areas (Region III and Region IV-A) was conducted in response to NEDA’s request for assistance
in formulating a comprehensive roadmap for transport development covering Metro Manila and
the two adjoining regions of Central Luzon and CALABARZON. It is intended to guide the NEDA
Infrastructure Committee in its deliberations on the contents and priorities of a short-term (2014 to
2016) and a medium-term (2017-2022) transport investment program or TRIP.

Accordingly, the short-term transport investment program (TRIP) translates the goals of the
Philippine Development Plan for 2011 to 2016 into specific projects in the transport sector.
Investing massively – to as much as 5% of GDP – in infrastructure is one of the five key
strategies to achieve this Plan. In the last decade or more, the country as a whole had been
under-investing (~2% of GDP) in infrastructure.

The key transport agencies involved in the Study have compiled a long list of projects. It
provided a take- off for the Study, as well as a plethora of development and sectoral master plans
– many of which had been crafted (but largely remained un-implemented) with technical
assistance from international donors. In anticipation of future growth and problems, the Study
produced a transportation roadmap for the sustainable development.

The Study area is as follows:

• Greater Capital Region (GCR): the three regions of the National Capital Region or
Metro Manila, Region III, and Region IV-A;
• Mega Manila: Metro Manila, Bulacan, Rizal, Cavite and Laguna; and
• Metro Manila: 17 towns (16 cities and 1 municipality)

The study was implemented from March 2013 to March 2014 in close coordination with the NEDA
infrastructure staff. Key consultations were held with leaders of NEDA, DPWH, DOTC, MMDA as
well as with other relevant government and private entities.

Week 17 – Transportation and Pandemics

Pandemics

What is a pandemic? It is an epidemic of infectious disease that spreads through human

populations across a large area, even worldwide.

Over the last 300 years, ten major influenza pandemics have occurred. The 1918 pandemic
(Spanish Flu) is considered to be yet the most severe. 30% of the world’s population
became ill and between 50 and 100 million died.

One important factor why the Spanish Flu spread so quickly and so extensively was through
modern transportation, which at the beginning of the 20th century offered global coverage.

The virus was spread around the world by infected crews and passengers of ships and trains
and severe epidemics occurred in shipyards and railway
personnel.

Concerns about the emergence of a new pandemic are salient, particularly in light of recent
outbreaks such as SARS (Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome) in 2002-2003, the Avian
Flu in 2005, the Swine Flu in 2009, and the coronavirus in 2019-2020 (COVID-19) which
quickly spread because of the convenience and ubiquity of global air travel.

An influenza-like pandemic could be equally severe as the Spanish Flu pandemic, and
widespread illness or absenteeism in freight transportation sectors can cause cascading
disruptions of social and economic systems.
Main Factors behind the Global Spread of Diseases

1. Global travel. The speed and connectivity offered by air travel have become the most
important factors in the global spread of diseases. The large number of people traveling
for touristic and business purposes increases exponentially the risk of spreading flu-like
diseases (viruses) rapidly and over long distances. The underlying connectivity, business
and social interactions behind global air travel are associated with the initial epidemiology
of an epidemic or a pandemic.

2. Wars and conflicts. While the number and intensity of conflicts have substantially
decreased in recent decades, they can be enduring and pervasive in several areas of the
world. The related collapse of public infrastructures such as hospitals and public utilities
(water and sewage systems) increases the vulnerability of the concerned populations.
Further, conflicts are often associated with the internal and external displacements of
populations (refugees), which may lead to the spread of diseases.

3. Global trade. A less prevalent factor, but the risks associated with the unintended transport
of pests or contaminated food, where bacteria are the vector. Otherwise, there are limited
risks of the spread of diseases through trade.

4. Migration. Large scale migration conveys the risk of migrants to transplant endemic
diseases to new locations. This is particularly the case of migrants cluster within specific
areas of their host countries.

5. Poverty. While global poverty rates have plummeted, poverty is associated with
malnutrition and unsanitary living conditions, making poor populations more susceptible.

6. Medical practices. The large diffusion of antibiotics had the unintended consequence of
enforcing a pathogenic natural selection, implying that viruses and microbes have greater
resistance.
The relationships between transportation and pandemics involve two major sequential
dimensions:

1. Transportation as a vector. From an epidemiological perspective, transportation can thus

be considered as a vector, particularly for passenger transportation systems. The
configuration of air transportation networks shapes the diffusion of pandemics. The global
air transport system is composed of airports that have different volumes and connectivity,
implying that depending on the airport there is a potentially different scale and scope of
diffusion. This issue concerns the early phases of a pandemic (first 10 days) where
transportation systems are likely to spread any outbreak at the global level.

2. Continuity of freight distribution. Once a pandemic takes place or immediately

thereafter, the major concerns shift to freight distribution. Modern economic activities
cannot be sustained without continuous deliveries of food, fuel, electricity, and other
resources. However, few events can be more disruptive than a pandemic as critical
supply chains can essentially shut down. Disruptions in the continuity of distribution are
potentially much more damaging than the pandemic itself.

Vectors and Velocities

The more efficient transportation, the more efficient is the vector that can transmit infectious
disease. International and long-distance transport such as air and rail, modes and terminals alike,
concentrates passengers and increase the risk of exposure.

Diffusion of a Pandemic through a Global Transportation Network

● Since the incubation time for the average influenza virus is between 2 and 7 days, there is
ample time for someone who is infected to travel to the other side of the world before
noticing symptoms.
This represents the translocation phase and is the most crucial in a pandemic. Once symptoms
have developed, there is also a “denial phase” where an infected individual will continue
traveling, particularly if going back to his place of origin. An infected individual beginning to show
symptoms is likely to cancel an outbound travel but will do the utmost, even breaking quarantine
(or warnings), to go back home.
Thus, in a window of a few days, before an outbreak could become apparent to global health
authorities, a virus could have easily been translocated in many different locations around the
world.
At this point, the vector and velocity of modern transport systems would ensure that an epidemic
becomes a pandemic. In some cases, the velocity of global transportation systems is higher than
at the regional level, which paradoxically implies that a virus can spread faster at the global level
– between major gateways – than at the regional level.

Once an outbreak becomes apparent, the global passenger transportation system, such as air
travel and passenger rail, can quickly be shut down in whole or in part, either voluntarily (more
likely if the outbreak is judged to be serious) or by the unwillingness of passengers to be exposed
to risks. Although travel restrictions may not prevent the total number of infected individuals, they
slow down the rate of spread and give more opportunities for actors such as public health
agencies, corporations, and individuals to prepare and implement mitigation strategies.

Impacts of Pandemics on Supply Chains

A pandemic can impact the components of supply chains through three fundamental
aspects:

1. Supply shocks. They represent an unexpected sudden change in the availability of raw
materials, parts, and manufacturing capabilities. It is not just that prices may surge. Still,
the availability of essential components can vanish because of a lack of raw materials,
parts, or the lack of labor necessary for their procurement. Depending on the existing
buffer, such as stockpiles of energy, grain, or raw materials, the supply shock can take
some time to be felt across a supply chain.
2. Demand shocks. Similar to supply shocks, demand shocks imply a sudden change in the
demand due to unforeseen circumstances. For several items such as food, hoarding may
trigger a temporary surge in the demand with several items becoming unavailable.
However, the fundamental impact of pandemics on market demand is deflationary. The
consumption of discretionary items such as cars, clothing, furniture, or appliances is
deferred, and the demand for energy declines with less commuting. The only notable
exception concerns medical equipment and pharmaceuticals that see a surge during a
pandemic. Consumers undertake a substitution of their consumption patterns towards
essential goods and will shift their consumption depending on the scarcity and price of
items. Restaurants and caterers may be incited to substitute their services to new forms
such as take outs and home deliveries only.

3. Distribution constraints. During a pandemic, the distribution capabilities can be impaired

by restrictions on trade, the lack of a workforce, or the closing of key distribution facilities
such as airports, ports, or distribution centers. This implies that existing inventory could be
mainly unavailable because of the lack of distribution capabilities. So, even if production
capabilities could be present, the lack of distribution capabilities can create shortages
irrespective of the demand. As last-mile distribution relies much more on labor than prior
stages, there is a much higher risk of disruptions through labor absenteeism due to illness.
Due to substantial changes in the demand, major distributors, such as e-commerce
retailers, will modify their procurement strategies to focus on high demand items while
discontinuing the procurement of discretionary items.

Possible Mitigation Strategies

– Transit systems. These systems are essential for workers and personnel to commute to
their functions to support economic activities and key services. While the option is to shut
transit systems down to reduce the risks of contagion, key transit infrastructure should be
allowed to remain operational during a pandemic, particularly if the system is automated or
if the operators are separated from the passengers.

Service frequency should be reduced, and passengers informed that while the transit system
remains operational, that using such a system represents a risk and that precaution such as
social distancing should be taken. Since commuting demand is likely to drop down
substantially, passenger density in public transit systems would decline proportionally.

– Road and highways. Individual mobility represents a safe form of transportation during a
pandemic as individual car and truck drivers have a very low level of exposure to
contamination while they operate their vehicles. This allows for the continuity of essential
commuting and of freight deliveries to distribution centers, retail outlets, institutions such as
hospitals and elderly care facilities, and home deliveries.

The main risks are during refueling, loading, and unloading, but these risks can be
reasonably mitigated. Individual passenger and freight mobility should not be excessively
restricted during a pandemic, with the mobility of trucks becoming a priority. Retaining home
delivery capabilities through e commerce is particularly important as it allows people to have
access to essential supplies while minimizing contamination risks, particularly for those who
are the most susceptible.

– Air travel. A pandemic has the indirect advantage of freeing substantial airlift capabilities
that can be used to carry large quantities of essential cargo using passenger aircraft.
Therefore, airlines and key airports must maintain air travel capabilities with a pool of
available aircraft, pilots, controllers, and ground personnel.

Travel restrictions should, therefore, focus on passengers and allow airlines to continue
offering services. The drop in air traffic may incite airports to rationalize their operations by
closing terminals (or sections of terminals) and concentrating activities such as customs and
security.

– Maritime shipping. The international maritime domain presents unique challenges as it

plays a fundamental role in supporting the global distribution of essential commodities
(food and energy), parts, and finished goods.

The naval services of nations should prepare to establish task forces in international waters
to quickly provide vaccine/antivirals and other health assistance to the multinational mariners
of commercial vessels as they transit into or out of maritime chokepoints and sea lanes.

International military and civilian entities such as the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, the
International Maritime Organization, or the Global Maritime Partnership initiative can provide
the organizational framework to protect global maritime commerce. Since cargo ship crews
may stay several months onboard as part of their rotation, suitable ports have to be found to
allow crews exchanges, including their repatriation.