Design of Experiment Group 1-Bisda, Mora, Quimo, Sanchez, Tabudlo

Major Design of Experiment (DoE) Experience Information
CE 016 Hydraulics
2nd Semester, SY 2021-2022
Group Members Leader: Sanchez, Gian Emmanuelle

Bisda, Ian Roy
Mora, Julius Cesar
Quimo, Ryan Joseph
Tabudlo, Cyrus Jowell
DoE Title
A Case Study on Magat Dam and Its Direct Impact to Nearby
Cities: An Analysis on its Flood Control Capabilities
Experimental Design This Design of Experiment aims to:

Objectives 1. Determine the flood operation of Magat dam
2. Evaluate the flood control capacity of Magat dam
3. Identify optimal dimensions to improve flood control capacity of
Magat dam
Input Factors
Flood Control Capacity Dam capacity allocated only to regulating flood inflows in order to
prevent downstream flood damage.
Watershed Area An area of land that drains all streams and rainfall to a single point,
such as a reservoir's outflow, the opening of a bay, or any point
along a stream channel.
Design Flood Discharge A hypothetical flood (peak discharge or hydrograph) used as the
basis for project component engineering design.
Design Maximum Flood The maximum flood that might theoretically be predicted to be
Release released, generally calculated based on the most probable
maximum precipitation.
Output Sources
Equivalent Rainfall It's the amount of total rainfall that the dam can hold if all of the
rain that falls in the dam basin falls into the reservoir.
Flood Cut Ratio Ratio between design flood discharge and design maximum flood
discharge which determines if the dam is a multipurpose dam and
can be used for flood control.
Technological Institute of the Philippines
Aurora Blvd, Cubao, Quezon City
Design of Experiment (DoE)
A Case Study on Magat Dam and Its Direct Impact to Nearby Cities: An Analysis on its
Flood Control Capabilities
Bisda, Ian Roy O.

Mora, Julius Cesar O.
Quimo, Ryan Joseph
Sanchez, Gian Emmanuelle
Tabudlo, Cyrus Jowell
CE 016 - CES32S4
Engr. John Briones

11 March 2022
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Cover Page ……………………………………………………………………………. I-II

Design Title ……………………………………………………………………………. III
Table of Contents …………………………………………………………………….. IV
List of Figures………………………………………………………………………….. V
List of Tables …………………………………………………………………………... V
I. General Background -> follow dot lines for page numbers …………… 1 - 2
II. Design Experiment Objectives……………………………………………. 2
III. Experimental Program…………………………………………………….. 3 - 5
IV. Procedure (drawing)………………………………………………………. 5 - 6
V. Design Statistics…………………………………………………………… 6 - 7
VI. Discussions……………………………………………………………….... 8 - 10
VII. Conclusion and General Recommendations…………………………… 11
VIII. References…………………………………………………………………. 11 - 12
List of Figures
Figure 1.1: Input-Process-Output Flowchart…………………………………...page 3
List of Tables
Table 1.1: Tabulation of Gathered Data of Magat Dam Characteristics……page 3

Table 1.2: Peak 24-hr rainfall from significant severe rain disasters in the Philippines in
recent years………………………………………………………………………..page 4
Table 1.3: Heavy rainfall from the past 10 years: 300mm – 1000mm volume of
precipitation………………………………………………………………………..page 6
Table 1.4: Monthly climatology and precipitation from 1991-2020 in Region II (Cagayan
Valley), Philippines………………………………………………………………..page 7
Table 1.5: Observed Average Annual Mean-Temperature of Region II (Cagayan Valley),

Philippines from 1901-2020………………………………………………………page 7
DESIGN OF EXPERIMENT (DOE)
I. GENERAL BACKGROUND
Technological and engineering advancements transformed dams from a
single-purpose structure to a multi-faceted facility as modern dams involve
various operations such as water allocation planning, intake and storage, and
discharge control. One local example is the Magat Dam situated in the
Cagayan River as it functions primarily as a source of irrigation,a flood control
catalyst, and a provider of hydroelectric power to the nearby provinces and
cities. During dry seasons, the water level on this dam determines whether
ration should be applied to maximize remaining water for circulation. On the
other hand, its water levels in wet seasons are significant factors to whether
Cagayan Valley should brace for flooding.
Given the importance of this structure to the welfare of the neighborhood

which this dam serves, this study aims to measure how the water discharge
and how the water-storing capacity of the dam impacts the neighboring
places during the wet seasons.
Being situated along the Pacific Typhoon Belt, the country is subject to at
least 21 typhoons a year with 25% categorized as destructive (ADRC, 2019).
During the peak season of typhoons, Northern Luzon is subject to frequent
flooding due to mass deforestation and the low-lying altitude of the region
(RDC, 2006). Accompanied by the fact that the surrounding terrain continues
to degrade due to urbanization efforts on the area, water levels on Magat dam
and its discharge significantly threaten low-lying communities as water flows
along the river systems situated in the dam (Galvez, 2020). Once peak height
water levels are reached, water is discharged from the dam to the Cagayan
River basin which proves to hinder agricultural development, environmental
management, and infrastructure upgrade if not done efficiently.
As the world braces to the devastating effects of climate change, monsoon
intensities in the Philippines cause typhoons to be stronger through the years
such as Typhoon Ondoy in 2009 and the destructive monsoon rains from
2011-2014 (Lagmay et al., 2014). One-day maximum rains had also been
observed through the years which replicate effects brought by typhoons; a
sign of the worsening condition over the years (PAGASA, 2013). Short-lived
thunderstorms also pose a problem equal to prolonged rains due to typhoons
as road networks blocked by floods cause a development of heavy traffic and
paralyze the entire city (Rodis, 2014). According to JICA, traffic jams due to
thunderstorm-related flash floods costs PhP 2.4 billion a day from wasted
gasoline and lost economic productivity (Rodis, 2014). While many factors
contribute to this struggle, experts point to the century-old waterline system,
outdated dam management procedures, clogged streams, and deteriorating
landscape conditions as causes of the extreme floods in the Valley for the
past decade (Lagmay, et al., 2017).
II. EXPERIMENT DESIGN OBJECTIVES
This Design of Experiment aims to:

1. Determine the flood operation of Magat dam;
2. Evaluate the flood control capacity of Magat dam, and;
3. Identify optimal dimensions to improve flood control capacity of Magat dam
III. EXPERIMENTAL PROGRAM
To have an overview of the paper, the researchers condensed the involved processes
and variables to categorical frameworks as shown below:
A. Framework
Figure 1.1: Input-Process-Output Flowchart
Table 1.1: Tabulation of Gathered Data of Magat Dam Characteristics

Table 1.2: Peak 24-hr rainfall from significant severe rain disasters in the
Philippines in recent years
B. Assumptions and Limitations
Due to the limited resources allotted to conduct this paper, the researchers have
confined the contents of this paper into viable assumptions and limitations to achieve
impactful and accurate results. These parameters serve as boundaries to guide the
computations and observations into concrete statements. They are as follows:
Assumptions:
 An equivalent rainfall (Er) that is greater than or equal to the quarter
(¼) of the 24-hour heavy rainfall volume is an ideal flood control capacity;
 The study assumes that the equivalent rainfall is stored in the dam;
 Flood cutoff ratio greater than or equal to 0.5 categorizes the dam as a
flood-control dam.
 A disastrous rainfall amount is a 24-hour rainfall volume ranging from 300
to 600m in which causes catastrophe toward nearby places where the
dam is situated.
Limitations:
 This study only utilized past, limited data of the Magat Dam.
 The data on the amount of rainfall is referenced through the nearby places
and not on Magat Dam itself as no instrument is installed in the dam to
measure such data;
IV. PROCEDURE
V. DESIGN STATISTICS
Table 1.3: Heavy rainfall from the past 10 years: 300mm – 1000mm volume
of precipitation
Table 1.4: Monthly climatology and precipitation from 1991-2020 in Region
II (Cagayan Valley), Philippines
Table 1.5: Observed Average Annual Mean-Temperature of Region II

(Cagayan Valley), Philippines from 1901-2020
VI. DISCUSSIONS
The Magat Dam has an operation rule curve which is presently operated
with accordance and operated by Operation Rule Curve jointly developed by the
National Irrigation Administration (NIA), National Power Corporation
(NAPOCOR), and National Water Resources Board (NWRB) to maximize the
use of water stored in the Magat Reservoir. It establishes the minimum month-
end reservoir that must be maintained by controlling the reservoir releases to
ensure the water availability for the irrigation for year-round use. It requires that
the reservoir must be filled up to its full supply at the level of elevation at 193.00
at year-end.
There are two (2) criteria associated with the operation rule curve to be
followed:
a. Under normal conditions, the elevation of the reservoir should not be
allowed to decrease below the rule curve, except during the occurrence of floods
where a decision to pre-release was arrived at.
b. As long as the reservoir elevation is above the rule curve, there will be
additional water releaser for power generation on top of the Irrigation Diversion
Requirement (IDR) that the projected month-end reservoir elevation should not
fall below the rule curve elevation based on a critical analysis by MARIIS.
The Magat Dam Protocol has three (3) ways on Dam Discharge and Flood
Warning Operation:
I. Before the coming of Typhoon
A. Coordinate with Philippine Atmospheric, and Astronomical Services

Administration (PAG-ASA)
1. Know the expected date and time of the typhoon's landfall, its speed
and direction.
2. Intensity of rainfall
3. Any disturbance aside from the tropical cyclone
B. Warning Steps
1. Check the availability of equipment on stations
2. Six hours (6) before the pre-release, activate the warning stations.
C. Drawdown the Magat Reservoir Water Level 2-3 days before the expected
landfall of the typhoon
1. Inform such as Local Government Units (LGU‟s), Non-Government
Organizations (NGO‟s), to be updated on what is happening.
II. During the Typhoon
A. Dam Discharge and Flood Operation

1. Inflow forecasting - based on the amount of telemetered rainfall
observed and recorded.
2. Warning on Intensive rainfall issued by PAG-ASA - Inflow is increasing
and exceeds 1,600 cu.m/sec considers to start of flood.
3. Issuance and dissemination of information of the dam discharge to the
public through:
 SMS, Radios, to all agencies concerned.
 Warning stations
4. Release of flood water in the Reservoir.
Engr. Carlo Ablan said, “The gates of Magat Dam had to be opened last
week because of the heavy rains from Typhoon Ulysses to prevent the dam from
breaking. In fact, we have been preventing a bigger catastrophe so we released
with seven gates opened.” the head of flood forecasting and dam instrumentation
division of NIA-Magat.
III. After the Typhoon

A. Regulation of outflow from the Dame to mitigate flood damage to the
downstream.
B. Termination of Dam Discharge Warning
C. Filling the reservoir to elevation 193m by the end of the flood.
IV. Evaluation of Flood Control Capacity
From the computation on procedure 1, it has been evaluated that Magat Dam,
albeit its size and various purposes, do not have enough equivalent rainfall
capacity during heavy rainfall. It shows that this dam cannot be reliable as a
waterfall reservoir and thus is more susceptible in opening its floodgates to
increase discharge towards nearby cities. This calculation is backed by
increasing frequency of flooding due to floodgate openings in the past decades.
With the evaluation of the equivalent rainfall, the evaluation of the dam‟s flood
control ratio shows that it is specified as a flood-control dam. While it performs
several functions for its service radius, it should be a dam primarily for flood
control. The computations then show the conflict between the theoretical
classification and the actual capacity of the dam.
V. Identification of Optimal Dimensions
From the computation on procedure 2, intervals of 300 sq km for the watershed

area has been observed to find the optimal range to achieve an equivalent
rainfall greater than or equal to the expected heavy rainfall value. Given that the
design flow control capacity is constant, the equivalent rainfall of the dam
increases as the area is decreased. It shows that these values are inversely
proportional; the converse is true when the equivalent rainfall and the flood
control capacity is changed with the area constant. The results on this procedure
provide information that can be used to determine steps to improve the capacity
of the dam to perform under heavy rainfall scenarios.
VII. CONCLUSION AND GENERAL RECOMMENDATION
Magat Dam follows an Operation Rule Curve made by the NIA,
NAPOCOR, and NWRB. The rule curve helps them to control the water releases
that supply the irrigation for year-round use. There are two criteria in the
Operation Rule Curve that needs to be followed. First, they are not allowed to
decrease the reservoir below the curve unless there is heavy rainfall incoming.
Second, if there is enough water from the reservoir, there will be additional water
release for power generation.
Based on the results, Magat Dam has an insufficient flood control capacity
despite the dam being categorized as a flood-control dam. The discrepancy
between its classification and capacity should fixed through various
improvements on the dam design.
The researchers recommend that the 164 million cubic meter design
capacity should be increased by 44.61% to have sufficient flood control during
heavy rainfall situations. If the design capacity cannot be improved anymore due
to structural limitations, the watershed area assigned for flood control should be
minimized to at least 1100 km2. This optimization will allow dams to decrease
their tolerance level in flood gates opening in which will segment the discharge.
The division of the discharge into intervals as compared to a one-time release
will allow ample time for risk management operations such as evacuation, flash
flood warnings, and natural seepage to gradually reduce flood levels.
Despite the computations, it is still necessary in reality to increase both
design flood capacity and watershed area to improve the dam‟s flood control
capacity.
VIII. REFERENCES
Japan International Cooperation Agency or JICA. (2002). The Feasibility Study of the
Flood Control Project for the Lower Cagayan River in the Republic of the Philippines.
JICA-DPWH Volume 2.
Regional Development Council or RDC-Region 2 (2006). Endorsing to Her Excellency
President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo the Cagayan Valley Flood Mitigation Master Plan for
Consideration and Funding Support. Cagayan Valley Flood Mitigation Master Plan CY
2006-2030.
Typhoon Ompong (Mangkhut / 1822) Summary Report. (2020, September 20).

PAGASA-DOST. Retrieved March 11, 2022, from
https://pubfiles.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/tamss/weather/tc_summary/TY_Ompong_MANGKH
UT_2018.pdf
Tropical Depression OFEL Advisory No. 01 – Typhoon2000 Philippine TC Advisories.

(2020, October 13). Philippine Tropical Cyclones Advisories. Retrieved March 11, 2022,
from https://typhoon2000.info/ofel20_01/
Inquirer. (2020, October 20). „Pepito‟ to become tropical storm before landfall; Signal
No. 1 up over parts of Luzon. INQUIRER.Net.
https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1349923/pepito-to-become-tropical-storm-before-landfall-
signal-no-1-up-in-aurora-quirino
Inquirer. (2021, October 13). „Maring‟ floods, slides kill 11. INQUIRER.Net. Retrieved
March 11, 2022, from https://newsinfo.inquirer.net/1501119/maring-floods-slides-kill-11
Philippine News Agency (November 16, 2020). In Water Releases prevented bigger
catastrophe: Magat Dam exec. Retrieved March 10, 2022, from
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1122013
National Irrigation Administration (n.d.). The Magat Dan Protocol on Dam Discharge and
Flood Warning Operation. Retrieved March 10, 2022, from
https://www.pna.gov.ph/articles/1122013

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Major Design of Experiment (DoE) Experience Information

2nd Semester, SY 2021-2022

Group Members Leader: Sanchez, Gian Emmanuelle

Experimental Design This Design of Experiment aims to:

Design of Experiment (DoE)

Bisda, Ian Roy O.

Engr. John Briones

Cover Page ……………………………………………………………………………. I-II

Figure 1.1: Input-Process-Output Flowchart…………………………………...page 3

Table 1.1: Tabulation of Gathered Data of Magat Dam Characteristics……page 3

Table 1.5: Observed Average Annual Mean-Temperature of Region II (Cagayan Valley),

Given the importance of this structure to the welfare of the neighborhood

II. EXPERIMENT DESIGN OBJECTIVES

This Design of Experiment aims to:

Figure 1.1: Input-Process-Output Flowchart

Table 1.1: Tabulation of Gathered Data of Magat Dam Characteristics

B. Assumptions and Limitations

Table 1.5: Observed Average Annual Mean-Temperature of Region II

I. Before the coming of Typhoon

A. Coordinate with Philippine Atmospheric, and Astronomical Services

II. During the Typhoon

A. Dam Discharge and Flood Operation

III. After the Typhoon

IV. Evaluation of Flood Control Capacity

V. Identification of Optimal Dimensions

From the computation on procedure 2, intervals of 300 sq km for the watershed

Typhoon Ompong (Mangkhut / 1822) Summary Report. (2020, September 20).

Tropical Depression OFEL Advisory No. 01 – Typhoon2000 Philippine TC Advisories.

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