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Econometrics Midterm Submission - Group 8

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Econometrics Project (ECO220)

Mid-term Submission

Group members:

Name Enrollment Number

Sneha Soni AU1910300

Shrutika Patel AU1910554

Aarya Bhagwat AU1910320

Arjun Verma AU1920042


The impact of higher education on unemployment

Summary:

This research paper deals with the impact of higher education on unemployment. For the
comparison of the same we are going to take 28 observations of 28 states of India and perform
regression analysis to analyse the data and answer the research question. We are taking into
consideration the data of year 2018-19. Our motive is to check whether there is a significant
impact of higher education on unemployment rate under normal circumstances and hence we
focus on 2018-19 and not recent years as it may have a significant impact of Covid-19 on the
same and would lead to misleading conclusions.

Why is it important?

In India, the unemployment has been prevailed since a long time. Though the unemployment
has been reducing with the passing years but it still hasn’t totally eradicated. It is considered to
be one of the major issues in Indian economy. By the analysis we want to derive on a conclusion
whether higher education has a significant impact on unemployment or not.

Research question:

The research question for our analysis is whether there is an impact of enrolment numbers of
higher education to the unemployment rate. For the same our hypothesis for the regression
analysis is that higher the number of enrolments in higher education, lower would be the
unemployment rate. We plan on to perform the analysis to find out whether the hypothesis can
be accepted or rejected. In addition to this, other independent variables include the GDP per
capita of the state and number of universities offering under-graduation in that particular state.

Data sources:

We have included 3 independent variables and 1 dependent variable to derive a conclusion on


the research question. For performing the regression analysis, we have obtained data of
different variables from different data sources. The data on the dependent variable
Unemployment Rate has been obtained from the official website of Reserve Bank of India.
That of GDP for states also has been obtained from the official website of the Reserve Bank of
India. That of enrolment number in higher education has also been obtained from the official
website of Reserve Bank of India. The data for the number of universities offering undergrad
has been obtained from the official report of AISHE (All India Survey on Higher Education).
Both the data sources are reliable and official sources for the same. As RBI and AISHE being
the best reliable data source for the research, we are going to use these data sources to do the
regression analysis. These sources have a very little probability of error and hence our research
paper won’t come to a wrong conclusion.

Variables:

In this study we are using 3 independent variables to derive a conclusion on the dependent
variable ‘Unemployment Rate”

1. Unemployment Rate
Unemployment rate is the dependent variable for the research. It constitutes the people who
are looking for a job but not getting one. It is calculated by CMIE (Centre for Monitoring Indian
Economy).

2. Number of enrolments in undergrad


Our main independent variable for the research is the number of enrolments in undergrad. We
have chosen this variable as the number of enrolments in undergrad determine the people who
are getting enrolled for a higher education. We believe that the number of students enrol for
higher education have significant impact on the unemployment rate.

3. State GDP per capita


In addition to the main independent variable, we have chosen state GDP per capita as another
independent variable because we assume that higher the GSDP (Gross State Domestic
Product), lower will be the unemployment rate. The CSO calculates the GSDP in India.

4. Number of universities offering higher education


Our 3rd independent variable is the number of universities offering higher education. We
believe that more the number of universities, less would be the unemployment rate. This data
has been obtained by AISHE.
Each group member’s contribution:

1. Sneha Soni – Decided the research question and the topic for the research and defined
the dependent and independent variables.
2. Shrutika Patel – Found the reliable data sources for the variables.
3. Aarya Bhagwat – Worked on writing the importance and summary of the topic.
4. Arjun Verma – Worked on writing the research question.

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