Seismic Hazard Curves For Warangal City in Peninsular India
Seismic Hazard Curves For Warangal City in Peninsular India
Seismic Hazard Curves For Warangal City in Peninsular India
https://doi.org/10.1007/s42107-019-00210-5
ORIGINAL PAPER
Abstract
A site-specific probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) has been carried out for the heritage city Warangal in Telangana
state of Peninsular India. The Cornell–McGuire approach of PSHA has been considered to estimate the hazard. The area of
influence is taken as 500 km radius. A homogeneous and updated earthquake catalogue was compiled for the considered area
which was later categorized into four seismic sources (zones) considering the earthquake epicentre and geology. The seismic
parameters a and b were estimated and the b value of the for the four seismic zones ranges from 0.72 to 0.97, whereas the
a value ranges from 2.45 to 3.20. The results obtained are shown as uniform hazard curves and hazard maps showing the
spatial variation peak ground acceleration (PGA) considering 2% and 10% probability of exceedance in 50 years. The PGA
and PSA values were compared with NDMA (Development of probabilistic seismic hazard map of India, technical report
of the Working Committee of Experts (WCE), National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), Govt. of India, New
Delhi, 2010) and IS 1893-1 (Criteria for earthquake resistant design of structures, part 1: general provisions and buildings,
6th edition, Bureau of Indian Standards, New Delhi, 2016). The study focussed on understanding the possibility of seismic
hazard at the heritage city Warangal in Peninsular India.
Keywords Uniform hazard spectrum · Peak ground acceleration · Probabilistic seismic hazard analysis · Warangal
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heritage city of Warangal. It is an ancient city which was buildings, heritage structures from earthquake hazard and to
ruled by the Kakatiya rulers from 1163 AD. The Kakatiyas build new structures including earthquake resistant design.
have constructed many historical structures like Thousand
Pillar Temple, Warangal Fort and Ramalingeswara tem- Tectonic setting
ple. The presence of such historical structures in Warangal
favoured its inclusion in “National Heritage City Develop- Peninsular India (PI) was anticipated as a stable continental
ment and Augmentation Yojana (HRIDAY)” scheme by the region (SCR) with low seismicity; however, Johnston and
Govt. of India with the aim of bringing together the eco- Kanter (1990) have expressed that potentially damaging earth-
nomic growth, urban planning and heritage conservation. quakes are possible in SCRs with maximum damage to life
Warangal was also selected for the Smart Cities Mission and property since the earthquake resistance design is reluc-
(2016) program by Government of India to make it a citizen- tantly followed in SCRs. The Kutch, Bhuj, Koyna and Latur
friendly and sustainable city. It is the second-most populous earthquakes are some of the examples of the earthquakes in
city after the capital city, Hyderabad, which is at a distance SCRs. These earthquakes occurred because of the stresses
of about 130 km from Warangal, Telangana. IS 1893-1 generated in the intraplate region of PI due to the collision of
(2016) divided the country into four zones (zones II–V) Indian plate and the Eurasian plate (Kumar et al. 2007). Bil-
based on the earthquake intensity. Warangal falls within ham et al. (2003) illustrated that the striking of the Indian plate
zone III, which is a moderate seismic region with a PGA with Tibet plate developed flexure in the Indian plate that pro-
value of 0.08 g. Peninsular India comprises many active duces sufficient stresses to trigger earthquakes. The 2001 Bhuj
faults and lineaments. Some important faults and lineaments earthquake is an example of a high-stress concentrated region
featured in the influence region are Kinnerasani–Godavari earthquake (Singh and Singh 2005). Vita-Finzi (2004) stated
fault, Kaddam fault and Musi lineament. Conservation of that the spatial distribution of earthquakes in PI is due to the
the ancient historical structures from earthquake hazard is buckling of the lithosphere. A number of sedimentary basins
essential for the future generation to understand the culture are present in Peninsular India. The sedimentary basins present
and the history of the region. Any seismic activity in such a in the study area are the Godavari Graben, Cuddapah basin and
historical and populous city will have an adverse impact on some parts of Eastern Ghats. These areas are well known and
the tourism industry, employment and rapid development are classified as moderate seismic regions from past seismic-
of the area. These aspects have made the author realize the ity history (Gupta 2006). The earthquakes are comparatively
importance and the need for seismic exposure studies of fewer in Peninsular India due to the intraplate setting than at
Warangal district. near-plate boundaries of the Himalayan region, but there is
The probabilistic approach of seismic hazard assessment a possibility of earthquakes due to the stresses developed by
is preferable than the deterministic method for places with the impact of the Indian plate and the presence of geological
moderate seismicity (Patil and Tande 2018). In this article, faults and lineaments. The sources for earthquakes are mostly
PSHA has been performed to estimate the earthquake hazard the rupture of geological faults where the strain energy is built
at Warangal region due to subsequent earthquakes in a par- up over time and released along the fault plane.
ticular time frame at a grid interval of 0.05° by the classical The study region in this investigation is taken as 500 km
Cornell–McGuire (Cornell 1968; McGuire 1976) approach. radius with NITW as centre. The lineaments and faults
The circular study region of 500 km radius with National that existed in the considered region were recognized from
Institute of Technology Warangal (NITW) as the centrer was the Seismotectonic Atlas of India and its environs. These
divided into four seismic sources considering the geology and faults and lineaments were digitized as layers in the ArcGIS
earthquake epicentre. The Gutenberg and Richter recurrence software for seismic source characterization. It is observed
relationship has been evaluated after the completeness analysis from the seismotectonic map that the WNW–ESE trending
of the compiled homogeneous earthquake catalogue. The max- Kinnerasani–Godavari neo-tectonic fault is just 45 km away
imum magnitude was calculated from Kijko method (Kijko from Warangal city. The Musi lineament, Kolleru Lake Fault
2004). The ground motion prediction equation provided exclu- and the Godavari valley fault are propagated at 69 km, 74 km
sively for Peninsular India by NDMA (2010) was selected to and 115 km, respectively, from the Warangal city.
determine the ground motion parameters. The earthquake
hazard values were computed for a return period of 475 years
and 2475 years. Furthermore, the uniform hazard spectrum Earthquake catalogue
has also been developed for the considered return periods.
The obtained values were compared with NDMA (2010) An earthquake catalogue of a particular area features past
and Indian Standard, IS 1893-1 (2016). The seismic hazard earthquake details such as the location, depth and magni-
assessment for Warangal region helps in safeguarding existing tude, which helps in identifying the seismic activity of that
region. The earthquake catalogue compiled for the current
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research covers instrumental as well as historical seismic detailed seismotectonic map of the study area comprising
events that occurred in an area of 500 km radius, with the faults, lineaments and declustered earthquake events.
NITW as centre. The co-ordinates of NITW are 17.98 N
latitude and 79.53 E longitude. Many researchers have
attempted to compile an earthquake catalogue of Penin- Completeness analysis of the earthquake
sular India. Chandra (1977) compiled for Peninsular India catalogue
for the period 1594–1975, Rao and Rao (1984) for the
period 1340–1983, Srivastava and Ramachandran (1985) The estimation of recurrence parameters using incomplete
for the time span 1839–1900. Guha and Basu (1993) col- data leads to erroneous results. Therefore, the completeness
lected earthquake data of magnitude greater than 3.0 for range of earthquake catalogue must be evaluated ahead of
Peninsular India. Recently, Nath et al. (2017) published an the earthquake hazard rate calculation. Historical records
earthquake catalogue for the period 1900–2014 for South of high-magnitude earthquakes have larger completeness
Asia which includes Peninsular India. The above sources period than low-magnitude earthquakes owing to fewer
have been used in the compilation of earthquake catalogue. instrumentation (Khan and Kumar 2018). The installation of
Along with this, internationally recognized databases of sensitive seismograph network assisted in reporting smaller
earthquakes have also been used. Among this, the India earthquakes thereby ensuring the completeness period of
Meteorological Dept. (IMD), International Seismologi- lower- to intermediate-magnitude earthquakes attained in the
cal Centre (ISC), and National Earthquake Info. Center instrumental era. Several techniques have been suggested to
(NEIC) have been accessed to complete the earthquake analyse the completeness period of an earthquake catalogue
catalogue. (Albarello et al. 2001; Rotondi et al. 1994; Mulargia and
Using the available historical and instrumental data from Tinti 1985; Stepp 1972). In the present study, Cumulative
the above sources, a comprehensive catalogue of 325 events Visual Inspection (CUVI) method was used to detect the
has been compiled for the period 1800–2016. The homoge- completeness period of the earthquake catalogue for con-
neity of the catalogue magnitude was ensured by converting sidered magnitude classes and seismic zones. The CUVI
all earthquake events into the moment magnitude scale (Mw). method is a graphical approach proposed by Mulargia and
The body wave magnitude (mb) and surface wave magnitude Tinti (1985). This method is simple and extensively used by
(Ms) are changed by using the Scordilis (2006) empirical several researchers (Nath et al. 2017; Desai and Choudhury
equations. The scale of local magnitude is changed to Mw 2014; Kalyan Kumar et al. 2009). In this method, the varia-
by adopting the equation given by Heaton et al. (1986). The tion between the earthquakes cumulative number and time
Gutenberg and Richter (1956) equation was considered for duration is plotted. The earthquake catalogue was divided
the conversion of intensity scale (I) to moment magnitude. into magnitude intervals starting from a magnitude of 3.0
There are chances of reporting the same earthquake data with an increment of 0.5 magnitude. The catalogue is treated
twice or more when the earthquake catalogue was compiled to be complete for a time period in which the occurrence rate
from different sources like IMD, ISC and NEIC. Such events of earthquake events is constant. This method is based on
were discarded by comparing the magnitude, location and constant average slope. The completeness result obtained
time. In PSHA, the earthquakes are considered to comply using the CUVI method for zone 3 is shown in Fig. 2. The
Poisson’s distribution (Gardner and Knopoff 1974). The completeness period for different seismic zones is tabulated
comparatively smaller magnitude aftershocks and foreshocks in Table 1.
depend on the higher magnitude earthquake event which
follows a different probability distribution. In order to attain
Poisson’s distribution, declustering of earthquake catalogue
was performed by adopting the modified windowing tech-
Evaluation of seismicity parameters
nique proposed by Uhrhammer (1986). After declustering,
The fundamental element in the analysis of the seismic haz-
288 main earthquake events were identified with Mw ≥ 3.0
ard of a particular area is the evaluation of the recurrence
for the period 1800–2016 (217 years). The declustered earth-
interval for earthquakes of various magnitudes. The recur-
quake events were digitized as a separate layer. The previ-
rence relationship reported by Gutenberg and Richter (1944)
ously developed faults and lineaments layer were then com-
was adopted to predict the annual earthquake occurrence rate
bined with the earthquake event layer in ArcGIS software to
and the relationship is given in Eq. (1):
obtain the comprehensive seismotectonic map that helps in
understanding area-wise seismic tectonics. The considered (1)
( )
log10 𝜆M = a − b M,
area of study was divided into four different zones consid-
ering the distribution of earthquakes, local geology and the where ‘a’ and ‘b’ are the characteristic constants of the
location of faults and lineaments. Figure 1 represents the seismic zone; λM = the mean annual rate of exceedance of
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magnitude M. The constants ‘a’ and ‘b’ can be evaluated as well as the incomplete part of the earthquake catalogue to
using the least square regression analysis. The ‘b’ value is estimate the mmax value. A MATLAB code (mmax) written by
sometimes thought of as a measure of the brittle–ductile Kijko was used to determine the mmax value. The mmax values
transition of the crust (Amitrano 2003). The regression anal- obtained from K–S–B approach for different zones are listed
ysis estimates the ‘a’ and ‘b’ values from the cumulative in Table 1. Rout et al. (2015) used the similar method to esti-
annual rate of earthquake occurrence and the mean of the mate the maximum magnitude for NW central Himalayas.
magnitude range. Table 1 lists the obtained G–R recurrence
relationship seismicity values for all zones and Fig. 3 shows
relationship for zone 1. Ground motion prediction equation
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and historical structures in Warangal urban district featured map for the area of study has been generated between lati-
within the considered grid. The centre of each grid was tudes 17.95–18.30 and longitudes 79.50–79.95 by dividing
considered for evaluating the seismic hazard. Most of the into 80 grids of size 0.05° × 0.05° and PGA was calculated
earthquakes in PI have a focal depth of 10–20 km (Ashish at the centre of the grid. The spatial variation of PGA at hard
et al. 2016). The focal depth for the present study is con- stratum for 475 and 2475 years’ return period for Waran-
sidered as 15 km from the median value of focal depths for gal region are shown in Figs. 5 and 6, respectively. For the
earthquakes that occurred in the study region. A total of 13 designing of structures, 10% probability of exceedance is
spectral ordinates were considered for the structural period considered to be ideal and appropriate. Figure 7 represents
varying from 0 to 2 s. The seismic hazard was calculated for the seismic hazard curves at various time periods in the
a return period of 475 and 2475 years. The output generated range of 0–1 s at bedrock level and the values are listed in
in CRISIS2015 software was in the hazard map with exceed- Table 2.
ance rate of a particular intensity estimated at the centre of
every four grid points. Uniform hazard spectrum (UHS)
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Table 2 The intensity (g) for the probability of exceedance in Table 3 The intensities at different structural period for 475 and 2475
50 years at different structural periods years’ return period
PoE in 50 years T = 0 s T = 0.05 s T = 0.1 s T = 0.5 s T = 1 s Structural period Return period
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Return period T = 0 0.2 0.5 1 T = 0 0.2 0.5 1 T = 0 0.2 0.5 1
475 0.069 0.059 0.021 0.009 0.06 – 0.025 – 0.08 0.2 0.16 0.08
2475 0.131 0.115 0.041 0.016 0.12 0.13 0.06 0.01 0.16 0.4 0.32 0.16
hazard curve. The seismic hazard at the considered region 76.9 15.2 1843 3 31 0 0 0 0 5.67 Rao
was evaluated by utilizing CRISIS2015 software. 80 18.8 1872 11 22 0 0 0 0 4.7 NDMA
The seismic hazard has been assessed and maps have 78.45 17.45 1876 10 1 0 0 0 0 5 Rao
been developed for the study region corresponding to 475 80 22 1957 8 25 21 4 50 0 5.5 ISC
and 2475 years’ return period, showing the PGA values 80 16 1959 10 12 19 26 0 0 5.43 IMD
across Warangal region for rock site conditions. The PGA 80 14.7 1966 4 10 0 0 0 0 5 Rao
80.16 15.62 1967 3 27 8 9 45.7 15 5.13 IMD
values attained from the hazard analysis at NIT Warangal for
80.8 17.6 1968 7 27 0 0 0 0 4.5 Rao
475 and 2475 years’ return period are 0.069 g and 0.131 g,
80.67 17.81 1969 4 13 15 24 54.7 25 5.23 IMD
respectively. The hazard results obtained for the study 76 15 1975 5 12 0 0 0 0 4.6 Sacat
region are in agreement with hazard estimated by NDMA 78.54 17.93 1983 6 30 6 59 31.1 33 4.83 IMD
(2010), but marginally lower compared to IS code 1893-1 79.25 22.34 1987 4 18 16 59 48 33 5.2 USGS
(2016). A uniform hazard spectrum has also been generated 75.3 20 1991 4 30 0 0 0 0 4.7 Sacat
for Warangal region for 475 years’ and 2475 years’ return 76.62 18.07 1993 9 29 22 25 47.5 12 6.23 IMD
period, respectively, to analyse the behaviour of structures 76.52 18.11 1995 12 14 4 9 32 10 4.53 ISC
subjected to earthquake loading. The study is region spe- 76.69 17.14 1997 1 23 2 34 50 33 5.03 ISC
cific and detailed, which can be used in safeguarding and 78.34 16.54 1998 4 9 6 22 18.4 0 5.43 IMD
76.53 18.01 2000 6 19 8 22 5.3 15 4.53 IMD
accessing the vulnerability of the heritage structures, and for
79.67 21.32 2001 7 26 10 5 23 10 5.28 ISC
the new constructions. The hazard values computed in the
78.16 20.37 2016 2 12 10 11 14 10 5.6 ISC
article are at bedrock site condition (VS30 > 1500 m/s). These
values may vary substantially depending on site-specific soil Rao Rao and Rao (1984), NDMA National Disaster Management
properties. The estimated PGA values at rock condition are Authority (2011), Sacat http://www.earthqhaz.net/sacat/, Nath Nath
useful in site response analysis and liquefaction assessment et al. (2017), IMD India Meteorological Department, ISC Interna-
tional Seismological Centre, USGS United States Geological Survey
of Warangal in future. The seismic hazard analysis and maps
need to be updated periodically with the development of new
methodology and addition of some recent seismotectonic
data of a region to obtain an updated hazard map. References
Acknowledgements The authors are grateful to IMD, ISC, NEIC and Aguilar-Meléndez, A., Ordaz Schroeder, M. G., De la Puente, J.,
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