Global Warming: An Introduction
Global Warming: An Introduction
Global Warming: An Introduction
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up. The year 2005 was also a record-breaking year for Atlantic hurricanes in which
the coastal city of New Orleans – made all the more vulnerable because of sea
level rise – was almost wiped off the map by Hurricane Katrina.
Of course, because the effects of global warming on local climates are very
complicated, it remains to be seen exactly how different regions will feel the heat.
"Global warming is a term that's extremely useful when you're running a planet,"
says John Cox, author of the book Climate Crash. "But it's regional change that
affects people. It's the wet and cold and hot and dry."
That's why climate modelers are constantly refining their simulations, and climate
scientists continue to refine our view of past climate changes to create a better idea
of what to expect.
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The forecast range of possible temperatures by the end of the century reaches
higher in this report than did the previous one in 2001 --11.5 degrees F -- but the
more probable range is between 3.2 and 7 degrees F. The rate of rise depends on if
and how fast emissions are reduced and on possible adverse feedbacks in the
climate system. All probable temperatures are far beyond the increase in the 20th C
and will take modern civilization into uncharted territory. Temperatures are sure to
rise faster in the next decades, the IPCC said, than they did during the same time
span in the last half of the 20th century.
Even now, the scientists reported, the last time the Arctic
was significantly warmer was about 125,000 years ago,
before the last ice age. At that time, sea level rose 4 to 6
meters as polar ice melted. For this coming century the
IPCC is forecasting sea level to rise from 7 inches to
about half a meter, depending on emissions and warming.
The scientists expressed uncertainty about rapid melting
of the Greenland ice cap, citing a lack of enough research
so far; this is sure to be one of the more controversial
parts of the report since some glaciologists think
Greenland and possibly Western Antarctica glacier melt will add considerably
more to sea level.
Scientists said "it is very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy
precipitation events will continue to become more frequent," that it was very
certain that the ocean would become more acid from taking up more CO2 and that
the great currents in the North Atlantic were likely to slow but not stop.
If CO2 emissions can be reduced far enough, the report estimated, the atmosphere
could be stabilized at a much lower level of greenhouse effect than is forecast now.
Still, the effects of global warming will be with us for many centuries, the IPCC
said, because of the inertia of the atmosphere and oceans and the 100 + year
persistence of greenhouse gases.
The significance of this report is less its absolute numbers, than in the strength of
its judgements and its acceptance, in the UN's consensus procedure, by the world's
nations including the U.S. and China. The IPCC also reported on changes to the
natural world, and on mitigation and adaptation strategies to reduce the impact of
climate change.
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Putting the brakes on global warming is no easy matter. Some ways to reduce our
contribution of greenhouse gases include setting strict emissions standards,
reducing our fossil fuel use, developing alternative sources of energy to replace
fossil fuels, removing carbon dioxide from emissions at the source, eliminating the
use of chlorofluorocarbons, slowing or mitigating deforestation, and developing
agricultural techniques that release less carbon dioxide to the atmosphere.
These changes would have far-reaching impacts on our current use of energy,
affecting industries and the economy. Some point out that developing new
technologies to reduce our dependence on fossil fuels could spur economic growth,
but critics contend that the costs of implementing an effective program would be
too high.
The most recent international effort to address the greenhouse effect was the Kyoto
Protocol, an agreement among the industrialized nations of the world to reduce
emissions of six greenhouse gases over a certain period of time. More than 170
nations signed the treaty, including the U.S., the European Union, Canada, and
Japan. If the treaty had been ratified by the U.S. Congress, it would have required
the U.S. to reduce emissions of greenhouse gases by 7% below 1990 levels, from
2008-2012. The Congressional Research Service Report, Global Climate Change:
Reducing Greenhouse Gases - How Much From What Baseline (1998) describes
the Kyoto Protocol, particularly the energy, economic, and carbon sequestration
variables associated with its implementation in the U.S.
Scientists have spent decades figuring out what is causing global warming. They've
looked at the natural cycles and events that are known to influence climate. But the
amount and pattern of warming that's been measured can't be explained by these
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factors alone. The only way to explain the pattern is to include the effect of
greenhouse gases (GHGs) emitted by humans.
To bring all this information together, the United Nations formed a group of
scientists called the International Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC. The IPCC
meets every few years to review the latest scientific findings and write a report
summarizing all that is known about global warming. Each report represents a
consensus, or agreement, among hundreds of leading scientists.
One of the first things scientists learned is that there are several greenhouse gases
responsible for warming, and humans emit them in a variety of ways. Most come
from the combustion of fossil fuels in cars, factories and electricity production.
The gas responsible for the most warming is carbon dioxide, also called CO2.
Other contributors include methane released from landfills and agriculture
(especially from the digestive systems of grazing animals), nitrous oxide from
fertilizers, gases used for refrigeration and industrial processes, and the loss of
forests that would otherwise store CO2.
Different greenhouse gases have very different heat-trapping abilities. Some of
them can even trap more heat than CO2. A molecule of methane produces more
than 20 times the warming of a molecule of CO2. Nitrous oxide is 300 times more
powerful than CO2. Other gases, such as chlorofluorocarbons (which have been
banned in much of the world because they also degrade the ozone layer), have
heat-trapping potential thousands of times greater than CO2. But because their
concentrations are much lower than CO2, none of these gases adds as much
warmth to the atmosphere as CO2 does.
In order to understand the effects of all the gases together, scientists tend to talk
about all greenhouse gases in terms of the equivalent amount of CO2. Since 1990,
yearly emissions have gone up by about 6 billion metric tons of "carbon dioxide
equivalent" worldwide, more than a 20% increase.
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fossil fuels- currently our main energy source. Unless you help stop
those emissions, there is little hope of a secure future for humans.
You'll see that dangerous shifts in the Earth's climate are happening as
we speak due to human induced global warming, and as it continues the
consequences will worsen. Furthermore, such changes may be self-
reinforcing. From an objective perspective, it looks like we are playing
Russian roulette with all of life on Earth!
The buildup of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere, mainly from yourfossil fuel
emissions, is the most significant human cause of global warming. Carbon dioxide
is released every you burn something, be it a car, airplane or coal plant. This means
you must burn less fossil fuel if you want the Earth's climate to remain stable! And
unfortunately, we are currently destroying some of the best known mechanisms for
storing that carbon-- plants.
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dioxide is released back into the atmosphere. As forests and grasslands are cleared
for your use, enormous amounts of stored carbon enter the atmosphere.
The oceans are no longer able to store carbon as they have in the past. The ocean
is a huge carbon sink, holding about 50 times as much carbon as the
atmosphere. But now scientists are realizing that the increased thermal
stratification of the oceans has caused substantial reductions in levels of
phytoplankton, which store CO2. Increased atmospheric carbon is also causing an
acidification of the ocean, since carbon dioxide forms carbonic acid when it reacts
with water. The tiny plants of the ocean, the very bottom of that vast watery food
chain, are suffering from the effects of global warming, which means they are
becoming less able to store carbon, further contributing to climate change.
As carbon sinks fail, the amount of carbon in the atmosphere climbs!
Per unit of volume, it is twenty times more potent than carbon dioxide when its
impact is measured over the course of a century. When you consider its effects
within a single decade, methane is 100 times as powerful as carbon dioxide as a
greenhouse gas! Carbon levels in the atmosphere are about 385 parts per million
(ppm) currently, whereas methane is only about 1.8 ppm. But because methane is
so powerful, it has the potential to have significant impacts on the future of global
warming.
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Clathrates are a hidden source of Methane. Clathrates are frozen chunks of ice
and methane that rest at the bottom of the world's oceans. As the water warms, the
ice melts, and the methane is released. If the current global warming, which is
caused by humans, were to cause changes in the Earth's ocean currents, then a
rapid melting of clathrates would be possible. This too would create a positive
feedback loop that would cause further global warming. It is believed that some of
the warming cycles in the Earth's history have been caused by the sudden thawing
of clathrates.
A Growing Problem
The "green revolution" of the twentieth century has allowed the farmers of the
world to use chemical fertilizers and machines to produce far more food than they
ever did before. One of the primary components of the green revolution has been
the development of nitrogen fertilizers that dramatically accelerate the growth and
productivity of plants in the field. Plants "fix," or capture, nitrogen on their own as
well, but green revolution technologies have become so popular that humans are
now adding more nitrogen to the earth than all of the plants in the world combined!
Nitrogen oxides have 300 times more heat-trapping capacity per unit of volume
than does carbon dioxide, and we release them every time we apply fertilizer to
soil. A recent United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization study found that
modern farming is contributing more to global warming than all of the
transportation sector combined! This is due partly to the fuel burned in modern
farming, but more significantly, to the release of methane and nitrogen oxides.
Green house gases stay can stay in the atmosphere for an amount of years ranging
from decades to hundreds and thousands of years. No matter what we do, global
warming is going to have some effect on Earth. Here are the 5 deadliest effects of
global warming.
5. Spread of disease As northern countries warm, disease carrying insects migrate
north, bringing plague and disease with them. Indeed some scientists believe that
in some countries thanks to global warming, malaria has not been fully eradicated.
4. Warmer waters and more hurricanes As the temperature of oceans
rises, so will the probability of more frequent and stronger hurricanes. We saw in
this in 2004 and 2005.
3. Increased probability and intensity of droughts and heat
waves Although some areas of Earth will become wetter due to global warming,
other areas will suffer serious droughts and heat waves. Africa will receive the
worst of it, with more severe droughts also expected in Europe. Water is already a
dangerously rare commodity in Africa, and according to the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change, global warming will exacerbate the conditions and could
lead to conflicts and war.
2. Economic consequences Most of the effects of anthropogenic global
warming won’t be good. And these effects spell one thing for the countries of the
world: economic consequences. Hurricanes cause do billions of dollars in damage,
diseases cost money to treat and control and conflicts exacerbate all of these.
1. Polar ice caps melting The ice caps melting is a four-pronged danger.
First, it will raise sea levels. There are 5,773,000 cubic miles of water in ice caps,
glaciers, and permanent snow. According to the National Snow and Ice Data
Center, if all glaciers melted today the seas would rise about 230 feet. Luckily,
that’s not going to happen all in one go! But sea levels will rise.
Second, melting ice caps will throw the global ecosystem out of balance. The ice
caps are fresh water, and when they melt they will desalinate the ocean, or in plain
English - make it less salty. The desalinization of the gulf current will "screw up"
ocean currents, which regulate temperatures. The stream shutdown or irregularity
would cool the area around north-east America and Western Europe. Luckily, that
will slow some of the other effects of global warming in that area!
Third, temperature rises and changing landscapes in the artic circle will endanger
several species of animals. Only the most adaptable will survive.
Fourth, global warming could snowball with the ice caps gone. Ice caps are white,
and reflect sunlight, much of which is relected back into space, further cooling
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Earth. If the ice caps melt, the only reflector is the ocean. Darker colors absorb
sunlight, further warming the Earth.
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There are many possible wedges, including improvements to energy efficiency and
vehicle fuel economy (so less energy has to be produced), and increases in wind
and solar power, hydrogen produced from renewable sources, biofuels (produced
from crops), natural gas, and nuclear power. There is also the potential to capture
the carbon dioxide emitted from fossil fuels and store it underground—a process
called "carbon sequestration."
In addition to reducing the gases we emit to the atmosphere, we can also increase
the amount of gases we take out of the atmosphere. Plants and trees absorb CO2 as
they grow, "sequestering" carbon naturally. Increasing forestlands and making
changes to the way we farm could increase the amount of carbon we're storing.
Some of these technologies have drawbacks, and different communities will make
different decisions about how to power their lives, but the good news is that there
are a variety of options to put us on a path toward a stable climate.
Obviously there is no one magic solution to the problem of global warming. There
are instead hundreds of questions that need to be asked and addressed so as to
create an overall Earth plan that will develop our planet wisely. The changes we
can make, both large and small when combined will curtail global warming for the
better. In this section we discuss the latest green designs, products and ideas as yet
undeveloped that will reduce environmental damage overall.
We plan to offer honest value
comparisons of products such as hybrid
cars. If the carbon footprint made from
producing a hybrid is ten times larger
than that it erases it is news that should
be shared. Compact florescent lights are
great energy savers but are all of these
exactly what they claim to be? And
furthermore will light emitting diodes
render CFLs obsolete before they are
universally adapted.
As always the future holds a newer and
possibly better design. We will be
bringing you articles examining what will come and those products that are already
available but await widespread acceptance. Developments in mass renewable
energy production in such areas as solar and wind power are of interest to all. We
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will also be looking back at past successful use of these energy choices. Zenith
sold tiny windmills in the late 1930s that would charge a car battery that in turn
would run a radio for days. Has the technological upgrade been utilized?
We will find solutions to the problem of global warming by asking countless
questions about the processes we rely upon to live. We answer these questions on a
personal level by changing the habits, which build each of our carbon footprints
and on a global level by insisting that social and governmental structure
acknowledge the need for environmental protection.
Countries that ratify the Kyoto Protocol agree to reduce emissions of six
greenhouse gases that contribute to global warming: carbon dioxide, methane,
nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, HFCs and PFCs. The countries are allowed to
use emissions trading to meet their obligations if they maintain or increase their
greenhouse gas emissions. Emissions trading allows nations that can easily meet
their targets to sell credits to those that cannot.
The Kyoto Protocol sets specific emissions reduction targets for each industrialized
nation, but excludes developing countries. To meet their targets, most ratifying
nations would have to combine several strategies:
Current Status
Most of the world’s industrialized nations support the Kyoto Protocol. One notable
exception is the United States, which releases more greenhouse gases than any
other nation and accounts for more than 25 percent of those generated by humans
worldwide. Australia also declined.
More than 100 top executives from the private sector and leaders of international
governmental and non-governmental organizations unveileved a plan to cut
greenhouse gas emissions. They said governments need to take immediate steps to
stop global warming.
"Failing to act now would lead to far higher economic and environmental costs and
greater risk of irreversible impacts," warned the Global Roundtable on Climate
Change in a statement issued Tuesday. "Long-term success will require a concerted
effort to de-carbonize the global energy system."
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other GHGs in major sectors of the global economy," stated the Roundtable.
"Research indicates that heading off the very dangerous risks associated with
doubling pre-industrial atmospheric concentrations of CO2, while an immense
challenge, can be achieved at a reasonable cost."
Alcoa, Ford Motor, General Electric, Goldman Sachs, Toyota Motor North
America, and Wal-Mart are among the corporations that signed off on the
initiative.
With corporations now making up roughly two-thirds the world's 150 largest
entities, the private sector is arguably as important as governments in directing
policy on climate change. This new initiative will likely increase pressure on the
world's largest polluters -- especially Europe and the United States -- to take action
on the issue, which could have a devastating economic impact. A study released in
October by the British government said that economic damage caused by global
warming could rival that of the Great Depression.
While the effects of higher CO2 levels are still poorly understood, scientists are
concerned that climate change could have a major impact on weather patterns, the
distribution of ice, ecosystems, and ocean currents and sea levels. During the past
year alone studies have warned that climate change could result in the demise of
coral reefs, the shutdown of the Gulf stream and related currents, melting Arctic
ice and glaciers, emerging diseases, bitter winters and drought, changes in
vegetation, stronger storms and hurricanes, and mass extinction.
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Business Week, Climate Group, and a panel of judges compiled this ranking
based on total reduction of greenhouse gases (GHGs), results relative to
company revenues, and management's leadership on environmental issues over
the past ten years
2004 Sales
Company $ Billions Metric Tons % Reduction
Reduced energy consumption 7% below 1990 levels, saving more than $2 billion -- including at least $10 million
a year by using renewable sources
Reached its 2010 GHG reduction target in 2001. Increased valuation by $650 million through improvements in
operating efficiency and energy management
Boosting energy efficiency also avoided $850 million in investments that otherwise would have been required,
because production grew 22%
Low-carbon and renewable sources provide 98% of its electricity in Britain, saving $1.1 billion. Adding 38%
reduction in vehicle emissions almost doubles savings
Slashed emissions of perfluorocarbon (PFC) gas from aluminum smelters by 80%. Expects annual cost savings
to reach $100 million next year
Tonnage cuts are from just higher energy efficiency. The reduction triples if other CO2 and PFC cleaning-
solvent emissions are included. Total savings: $791 million
Substantially lower CO2 emissions stem from efficiency initiatives that have netted savings of more than $17
million over the past 10 years
Since 1994, CO2 emissions have been progressively curtailed with better energy practices. Efficiency savings
now exceed $100 million a year
By cutting energy consumption, 3M has saved more than $190 million since 1990
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Tonnage was avoided with renewable fuels, but total emissions grew in 2004. Biomass investments -- $12.7 billion
since 2001 -- will yield 5,500 megawatts in 2008
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