The Global 5g Landscape - 2019
The Global 5g Landscape - 2019
The Global 5g Landscape - 2019
5G LANDSCAPE
AN INSIDE LOOK AT LEADING 5G MARKETS,
KEY PLAYERS, AND HOW THEY ARE DEFINING
THE FUTURE OF CONNECTIVITY
June 2019
5G will overhaul the tech industry and serve as the backbone to the
fourth industrial revolution, and the global pacesetter for the new
standard could become the same for connected technologies. 5G is a
game-changing technology: Its speeds are up to 100 times faster than 4G —
its predecessor — and latency is up to 120 times lower. In practice, a 5G
connection has the potential to save nearly a full day each month from faster
streaming and downloads on movies, TV, music, gaming, and social media,
for instance. But 5G's transformative power extends well beyond faster
versions of the status quo: The next-generation standard will power billions of
new connected devices, supercharging the adoption of transformative
technologies at a rate that will reinvent the business world. Here are a few
innovations 5G will catalyze adoption of: IoT and smart homes, VR and AR,
connected and autonomous devices, and remote healthcare.
Verizon
Overview: The No. 1 US wireless carrier by volume, Verizon was the first
firm in the world to launch a 5G service.
Plans. After a free three-month trial, the company charges $50 per
month for unlimited data for Verizon mobile customers and $70 per
month for customers without a Verizon Wireless plan. The service also
comes with a free three-month YouTube TV subscription and either an
Apple TV 4K or Chromecast Ultra device.
Verizon's mobile 5G service launched just six months after its fixed 5G
service. Verizon launched its mobile 5G Ultra Wideband network on April 3
in parts of two US markets. The mobile 5G service is based on the 3GPP 5G
New Radio (NR) standard and uses mmWave spectrum, but Verizon plans to
eventually deploy the service on mid- and low-band spectrum when it
becomes available. The carrier aims to launch its mobile 5G network in at
least 28 additional cities by the end of 2019.
Why it's worth watching: Verizon is pushing to become a go-to partner for
automated technologies.
AT&T's 5G vision differs from its main rival Verizon: Its priority is the
development of 5G services in the mobile market. During the company's Q4
2018 earnings call, CEO Randall Stephenson said he sees 5G as a fixed
broadband replacement product in three to five years, which helps explain
why it's not an immediate focus for the company.
Mobile 5G
Overview: T-Mobile is banking on its pending merger with Sprint to boost its
5G deployment.
Separately, the telecoms lack the resources necessary to upend the 5G race,
but a merger means they can leverage wider spectrum holdings and
infrastructure to lead 5G development in the US and globally. By 2024, the
new company, which would operate under the name New T-Mobile, is
anticipated to have approximately double the total capacity and triple the total
5G capacity of the carriers combined. New T-Mobile is also expected to have
5G speeds four to six times what they could achieve on their own. The
merged entity plans to invest up to $40 billion in building out its 5G network
and business in the first three years, which is 46% more than the duo has
spent collectively over the past three years.
T-Mobile and Sprint plan to invade the home broadband market with 5G
fixed wireless. T-Mobile launched a pilot for the service using its wireless
LTE network in March, in which it will prioritize connecting 50,000 rural and
underserved US households by the end of this year. If allowed to merge with
Sprint, New T-Mobile plans to upgrade the service to 5G and will cover 96%
of the country's 62 million rural residents and over half of zip codes across
the US by 2024, enabling it to add 9.5 million customers.
SK Telecom
Capex. Total capex over 2018 reached 2.12 trillion won ($1.8
billion), up 7% YoY.
Fixed 5G
o The entry-level Slim plan ($47 per month) caps speed at 1Mbps
after 8GB of data.
o The 5GX Standard plan ($64 per month) caps the speed at
5Mbps after 150GB of data.
KT
The event also provided KT with early insights into how to build and stabilize
a 5G network running real-world connections — trial speeds reached up to
20 Gbps with latency under 1 millisecond while covering over a million
devices per square kilometer. KT's trial network and road map to
commercialize 5G were later approved in August by the International
Telecommunication Union (ITU) as an international standard. KT plans to
invest 23 trillion won ($19 billion) over the next five years in 5G and relevant
technologies.
Capex. Total capex over 2018 was 2 trillion won ($1.7 billion), down
12% YoY.
Fixed 5G
Why it's worth watching: KT's 5G Super Plans propelled the firm to the
front of South Korea's 5G market, and global carriers should emulate the
company's approach and pricing structure to accelerate subscriber migration.
LG Uplus
LG Uplus is the only South Korean MNO that's teamed up with Huawei. In
2016, the duo completed 5G field trials in the Gangnam District to verify tech
including IPTV 4K video, dual connectivity, and inter-cell handover — which
was the world's first wide-scale 5G network test using a pre-commercial
testing environment. And in January 2019, LG Uplus showcased the world's
first 5G Cloud VR-based game. However, LG Uplus has been in the hot seat
as of late because it chose Huawei's equipment over Samsung's for its
network in Seoul and the Gangwon Province, and the Chinese equipment
provider is embroiled in global tensions over security concerns. LG Uplus
plans to invest more than 4 trillion won ($3.4 billion) in the deployment of its
nationwide 5G network.
Mobile 5G
o The entry-level 5G Light plan ($46 per month) caps the speed at
1Mbps after 8GB of data.
o Both the 5G Special plan ($72 per month) and the 5G Premium
plan ($80 per month) offer unlimited data, with the latter
including the option to add two smart devices. Over 70% of new
subscribers have selected the 5G Special plan, according to LG
Uplus head of mobile group Jong-Wook Park during the
company's Q1 2019 earnings call, highlighting demand for
unlimited data and connecting multiple devices.
The company is the only telecom in the country with three IoT
technologies, according to its Q1 2019 earnings call. And the newly
commercialized LTE M1 network will enable it to tap into areas such as fleet
management and location tracking, which the company expects will further
advance its B2B IoT services. South Korea's IoT market is expected to
become the fifth-largest in the world in 2019 after the US, China, Japan, and
Germany, with IoT sales growing 23% on average each year from 2015 to
2018.
China is the largest mobile market in the world, and it's expected to
become the biggest 5G market by 2025, with 460 million 5G
connections. By then, 5G services from China's three state-owned
operators — China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom — will cover
65% of the population and 5G connections will represent 29% of China's total
mobile connections. China's been targeting large-scale 5G commercial
launches for 2020 for years now, but it's striving to accelerate the deployment
of commercial 5G services to October 2019. The country is expected to
invest between 900 billion and 1.5 trillion yuan ($134 billion-$223 billion) from
2020 through 2025 to develop 5G networks, according to the China Academy
of Information and Communications Technology (CAICT).
Spectrum: China is rolling out 5G in lower frequencies first and treating high
frequencies as a supplement.
China's three state-owned wireless carriers are gearing up to launch the first
phase of 5G commercial services in 40 Chinese cities on October 1, 2019, to
celebrate the 70th anniversary of the country's founding of the People's
Republic of China. Each operator will have between 30,000 and 50,000 base
stations — provided by ZTE, Huawei, and Ericsson — deployed across the
40 mainland cities. Since 2016, there have been 5G trials in over 100
Chinese cities. The country is prioritizing the development of mobile 5G
services over leveraging the tech as a fixed broadband replacement; China is
not currently understood to be trialing or planning to launch 5G FWA
services.
China Mobile
This year, China Mobile supported the launch of Shanghai's 5G trial network,
which covers the entire Hongkou district — the world's first district to boast
both 5G and gigabit broadband coverage — and connected the first railway
station to have a 5G digital indoor system (DIS). The operator also connected
the world's first holographic video call using 5G SA NR standards and
assisted China's first 5G-based remote surgery on a human brain. China
Mobile's 5G capex for 2019 is expected to be at 17.2 billion yuan ($2.5
billion), which amounts to more than the 5G capex of China Telecom and
China Unicom combined.
What's coming next: China Mobile's sights are set on conquering IoT as the
country shifts into the 5G era.
China Mobile's 2.6GHz band has the potential to reap cost savings for
the company, allowing for increased capital allocation to emerging IoT
networks and other industry segments. The lower band is typically a 4G
band, but it's also suitable for 5G. Lower bands can provide wider area
coverage than the higher frequencies the MIIT issued to China Unicom
(3.5GHz-to-3.6GHz ) and China Telecom (3.4GHz-to-3.5 GHz). These
benefits will help lower the overall cost of China Mobile's new network while
enabling it to serve more customers than its Chinese competitors: China
Mobile is only aiming to spend 150 billion yuan ($21.7 billion) in 2019 toward
capex — a more than 10% YoY decline from 2017 and a nearly 16% drop
from 2016.
The carrier moved up the launch of its first public 5G network trial to April
2019 to accelerate the commencement of commercial 5G services in China.
In 2019, China Unicom is budgeting 8 billion yuan ($1.2 billion) to 5G from its
58 billion yuan ($8.4 billion) capex.
Mobile 5G
China Telecom
Capex. In 2018, capex was 74.9 billion yuan ($10.8 billion), down
15.5% YoY — 2018 marked the third consecutive annual decline.