DHL Trendreport Robotics PDF
DHL Trendreport Robotics PDF
DHL Trendreport Robotics PDF
March 2016
PROJECT DIRECTOR
Dr. Markus Kückelhaus Dr. Antje Huber
Vice President Innovation and Trend Research, Vice President Innovation “Robotics“
DHL Customer Solutions & Innovation Deutsche Post DHL Group
Post - eCommerce - Parcel
IN COOPERATION WITH:
AUTHOR
Tom Bonkenburg
Director of European Operations
St. Onge Company
PREFACE
Primed by scenarios from science fiction, as well as by In this report, we examine the current state of robotics
hype and wild speculation from the world’s media, we and automation in the logistics industry and offer a
have for many decades anticipated the era of robotics. visionary outlook of how our supply chains will be
We are concerned that robots may steal our jobs and transformed and improved by this emerging technology
spy on us. We imagine that they will arrive not in ones trend. You will extend your understanding of collaborative
and twos but in vast armies ready to alter forever life robotics with particular insights in the following areas:
as we know it.
Understanding robotics in logistics –
The reality is, of course, quite different. Exciting as it is, why is the time right to start investigating?
robotics technology seems to be arriving slowly but
surely in cautious and well-considered stages. Right
Which leading technology trends are enabling
now robots are already among us. Personal robots robotics solutions in logistics?
are busy cleaning inside our homes and helping to
maintain our gardens. Commercial robots are busy on
What are some of the potential use cases in
the manufacturing side of the supply chain, mostly in the near future?
the automotive sector. But where are all the robots
in the logistics environment? Why are there so few
How could robots change the world of logistics
advanced robots working in our warehouses, helping in the far future?
us to meet modern distribution challenges?
This report will prepare you for a new era of advanced
This DHL trend report explores these questions in robots in logistics, and we hope it will ignite your
detail. You will find that designing an advanced robot interest in the future of robotics. Enjoy the read!
is expensive and a significant technological challenge.
You will see that the distribution environment is Yours sincerely,
complicated and difficult to automate. But every day
there are breakthroughs in robotics, helping us to
overcome these challenges. Funding is pouring into
robotics research in unprecedented amounts from
unexceed sources. And there are both large enterprise
players and innovative startup companies focusing
for the first time on extending the role of robotics
beyond manufacturing and into the logistics side
of the supply chain.
PREFACE ........................................................................................ 1
SOURCES ....................................................................................... 35
Understanding Robotics 3
1 UNDERSTANDING ROBOTICS
1.1 Robotics in Logistics: An Emerging “exoskeletons” help restore functions of amputees and
Technology Trend the elderly, allowing them to remain active in society.
As highlighted in the DHL Logistics Trend Radar, there These robots already advance our lives by eliminating
are several significant technology trends that will greatly tasks that are dangerous, repetitive, tedious, or boring
affect our future in a positive way. Examples include and give us improved skills of accuracy, precision, and
sustainable energy, medical informatics, 3D printing, gene strength. Robots enhance our productivity and allow
sequencing, big data analytics, and self-driving cars. It is us to accomplish more each day even in a world where
easy to picture how advances in these areas will improve the working population is getting older.
our lives.
Up until now, robotics technology has not made a large
Another major technology trend that will have a profound impact in the world of logistics. This is about to change
and positive impact on society is the development of as advanced robots enter our warehouses, sorting centers,
advanced robotics. Every day, innovative robots are and even help with final-mile delivery. Logistics workers
supporting doctors with surgeries that are less invasive will benefit from collaborating with robots, while
and safer to perform. In hospitals, robots work with customers will see faster service and higher quality.
nurses to bring meals and medicines to patients without Imagine a world where people can focus on work that
delay. Robots are being designed to remove dangerous is meaningful and more enjoyable. Picture a world
landmines and support recovery from natural disasters where repetitive, tedious, or dangerous manual labor
in ways that would be too risky for human beings. is uncommon. Dream of a logistics supply chain that is
faster, safer, and more productive.
Robots work together with factory employees to assemble
goods around the world with higher quality and at lower This DHL trend report gives an overview of the current
cost. Personal robots are available to help us around our state of robotics in logistics, and offers a vision of how
homes by mowing the lawn, watering the garden, and our supply chains will be transformed and improved by
vacuuming the living room. Robotic prosthetics and this exciting technology trend.
Figure 1: Robots help people in dedicated areas of everyday life and work
4 Understanding Robotics
Figure 3: Economies will face shortage of million workers across different industries
1
http://nrw.nl/wp-content/uploads/2015/07/European-b2c-e-commerce-report-2015.pdf
2
https://www.forrester.com/Forrester+Research+Online+Retail+Forecast+2015+To+2020+US/fulltext/-/E-RES125161
3
http://www.china-briefing.com/news/2014/06/04/trends-chinas-e-commerce-market.html
4
https://www.bcgperspectives.com/content/articles/management_two_speed_economy_public_sector_global_workforce_crisis/?chapter=2
5
https://gbr.pepperdine.edu/2010/08/preparing-for-a-future-labor-shortage/
Understanding Robotics 5
The desire to have a machine replicate human actions A logistics robot would need to handle a wide array of
has been around for a long time. Over 500 years ago, different parts in an infinite number of combinations. It
Leonardo da Vinci drew plans in his sketchbook for a would help if the robot could see, move, and react to its
robotic knight that scholars believed could sit, stand, environment.
raise its visor, and move its arms. In concept the arms
6
were operated by pulleys, cables, and gears not unlike Past attempts at putting more skilled robots into logistics
many of the modern robots that work in factories applications have failed because the technology was just
around the world today. not ready. Until recently, robots were dangerous and had
to be placed inside cages to protect passersby, making
These mechanical humans were called automata and it very difficult to install them in the middle of a busy
were designed to entertain and delight audiences. It distribution center or have them collaborate with workers.
wasn’t until 1961 that the first industrial robot was sold
to perform useful work, transferring parts from one point
to another in a General Motors car factory.7 Like that first
robot, the vast majority of industrial robotic arms installed
between the 1960s and today were confined to the
manufacturing side of the supply chain, mostly in the
automotive sector. Only a limited few transitioned to
support logistics and distribution.
http://www.robothalloffame.org/inductees/03inductees/unimate.html
7
6 Understanding Robotics
Many critical articles are being written about social for a family in the distant future of 2013 including
acceptance of robotics and related ethical, legal, and “robot maids do all household chores”.13 Alas, if you
societal (ELS) issues. Books such as “Rise of the Robots” have gotten a haircut recently or had to wash your own
and “Race Against the Machine” postulate that a robotics laundry you will know that the hype in the media regard-
revolution is near and forecast that society will need to ing the future of robotics does not always come true.
change to be ready for it. Hollywood movies such as
9
“I, Robot“ and “Robot and Frank” show differing visions These entertaining predictions were not fully wrong,
of the future with robots in our lives. however. In 2002 a company called iRobot introduced a
robot vacuum cleaner for use in the home and since then
There is an ongoing public debate between those who the company has sold over 14 million home-cleaning
believe that the number of jobs will decrease and those robots worldwide.14 This represents a small share of the
who believe that the number of jobs will go up as robots total number of vacuum cleaners sold, but it is a start
become more prevalent. A few well-known public figures and several competitors have entered this market. While
such as physicist Stephen Hawking and Tesla CEO Elon current news articles predict the coming of self-driving
Musk have warned that advanced artificial intelligence is cars, the farm tractor manufacturer John Deere has
“our biggest existential threat”10 while Google CEO Larry already been selling self-driving tractors globally for
Page believes that robots will improve lives, allowing peo- several years.15 In many cases media predictions for the
ple to spend more time with their family and friends while future of robotics are not directionally wrong but their
at the same time engaging in more rewarding work. 11
timelines are often too optimistic. Progress has taken
much longer than many people would expect.
The world has seen this type of excitement and hype
before. In 1910, the French artist Villemard predicted
robotic tailors and barbers taking over these professions Why has progress taken longer?
by the year 2000.12 In 1956, the Californian magazine
Independent Press-Telegram dedicated its entire November The world of advanced robotics is very complicated
issue to “You and the Year 2000”. This article predicted and difficult. It is a multidisciplinary field that combines
that robotic farmers would take over by the millennium. mechanical engineering, electrical engineering, and
On April 3, 1988, the Los Angeles Times Magazine pro- computer science but also draws on disciplines such as
duced a special issue predicting what life would be like psychology, biology, neurology, sociology, and mathe-
8
http://www.therobotreport.com/news/is-the-robotics-industry-over-studied-or-does-it-indicate-a-trend
9
“Rise of the Robots: Technology and the Threat of a Jobless Future” and “Race Against the Machine: How the Digital Revolution is Accelerating Innovation, Driving
Productivity, and Irreversibly Transforming Employment and the Economy”
10
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-30290540
11
http://www.forbes.com/sites/ellenhuet/2014/07/07/larry-page-robot-jobs/
12
http://thesocietypages.org/socimages/2011/03/09/villemards-vision-of-the-future/
13
http://documents.latimes.com/la-2013/
14
http://www.irobot.com/About-iRobot/Company-Information/History.aspx
15
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-switch/wp/2015/06/22/google-didnt-lead-the-self-driving-vehicle-revolution-john-deere-did/
Understanding Robotics 7
Electrical Engineering
(Hardware, sensors, low-cost
sensors, powerful batteries) Computer Science
(Cloud computing, increasing
Mechanical Engineering computational power, wireless networks)
(Kinematics, 3D printing,
miniaturization, new materials)
Artifical Intelligence
(e.g. pattern recognition and
perception, speech recognition)
Biology
(Nature-inspired methods, Mathematics
brain as a biological model, (Logics, error estimation,
modeling of animal-swarms, statistical evaluation)
"soft-robotics") Robotics
Law
(Need for adaptation of the
Psychology legislation to new technological
(Human-computer interaction) possibilities, in particular
Cognitive Sciences privacy and liability)
(Cognitive models)
Figure 7: The world of advanced robotics; Source: Deutsche Post DHL Group
matics. To get a robot to do even simple actions often these are companies that tended to focus only on improv-
requires solving several challenging problems at once ing their existing applications within manufacturing.
across multiple areas of study. For this reason, until Today, a new wave of research and funding is flooding
recently, most robotics advancement and research the market, and it is coming from three sources: govern-
was confined to the academic laboratory setting. ment stimulus programs, venture capital investments,
and large enterprise players such as Google and Amazon.
Besides the inherent technical challenges, several other
obstacles have traditionally hindered advancement in Due to the current excitement around robotics, several
the field of robotics: lack of research funding, expensive countries are providing significant grants in an attempt
hardware and sensors, and limited computing power to foster the next robotics revolution within their own
to run advanced algorithms in real time. borders. In 2012 the US government gave a total of $50
million in university grants for robotics research to more
than 30 groups.16 These grants were the first step in the
1.4 What is Different Today? Obama administration’s National Robotics Initiative (NRI)
with the goal of creating the next generation of collabo-
The past barriers to robots development are starting rative robots. In addition to this funding, the US Defense
to come down. The first barrier involves funding. Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) funds the
Developing the next generation of robotics will take DARPA Robotics Challenge, a contest to develop semi-
a substantial investment to advance the technology autonomous robots capable of performing complex
significantly. In the past, research funding was typically tasks at disaster sites.17 So far, the US government has
limited to small university grants and the internal invested over $96 million including more than $3 million
engineering budgets of industrial robot manufacturers – in prize money.
http://www.nsf.gov/news/news_summ.jsp?cntn_id=125390
16
http://www.theroboticschallenge.org/overview
17
8 Understanding Robotics
China has become particularly interested in robotics and order tote. Fetch has received $23 million in venture
has overtaken Japan as the world’s largest consumer market capital, much of it from SoftBank, a Tokyo-based phone
for industrial robots.18 In April 2015 it was announced that and Internet service provider that also recently invested
China has teamed up with Russia to develop a $200 million $100 million in a robotics company called Aldebaran
robotics research center and startup incubator. One month 19
that has created the robot Pepper.22
later, Japan’s prime minister announced the creation of
the Robot Revolution Initiative Council. Backed by 200
companies and universities, the council’s five-year plan
aims to deepen the use of intelligent machines in manu-
facturing, supply chains, construction, and healthcare,
while quadrupling Japan’s annual robotics sales from
$5 to $20 billion by 2020.20
A new startup company that is focusing on the distribution Overall, venture capital invested in the robotics field for
market is Fetch Robotics. Fetch has developed a robotic the first five months of 2015 exceeded all robot-related
arm that drives around on a mobile base to pick items equity funding in 2014 combined.23 Even the public is now
from a standard warehouse shelf and put them into an investing in the potential of robotics. In November 2013,
18
http://www.forbes.com/sites/montymunford/2015/04/23/china-russia-team-up-on-200-Million-robotics-deal/
19
http://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/global-and-chinese-industrial-robot-report-2014-2017-300035358.html
20
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/tech/tech-news/Japan-unleashes-a-robot-revolution/articleshow/47481845.cms
21
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/startups/2015/04/rethink-robotics-closes-series-d-funding-with-40m.html
22
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/industrial-robots/fetch-robotics-secures-massive-20-Million-investment-from-softbank
23
http://www.hizook.com/blog/2015/01/20/venture-capital-vc-funding-robotics-2014
Understanding Robotics 9
a robot rang the closing bell at NASDAQ, highlighting Improved levels of investment funding, however, are
the creation of the first robotics stock index. Robo-Stox not the only reason that the outlook for robotics today
attracted $54 million in just 2.5 months, which was is much better than in the past. There have been some
invested in 77 stocks globally. 24
fundamental breakthroughs in enabling technologies
that can be used to create the next generation of
Big players such as Amazon and Google represent today’s robots. These enabling technologies include low-cost
third source of funding for the new world of robotics. sensors, faster computers, big data analytics, better
Seeing the potential of robots, Amazon spent $775 million batteries, cloud computing, and mobility. The effect
in 2013 to buy Kiva, another startup robotics company of these important breakthroughs will be the focus of
with a focus on warehouse logistics.25 Amazon now claims the next section of this trend report.
to have 30,000 robots working in 13 fulfillment centers. 26
What is a Robot?
24 hours per day on a car assembly line. If you are into
home gadgets, you might think of the Roomba robotic
vacuum cleaner. These are, in fact, all robots but they
are also very different from each other.
Figure 11: What is a robot? While this definition is true of a robot, it is so broad
that it also captures self-driving cars, drones, conveyor
Close your eyes and picture a robot in your mind. systems, and even a soda vending machine. Self-driving
What do you see? If you are into movies, you might cars and drones have been discussed in another DHL trend
picture some sort of human-like machine as seen report so, for the purposes of this report, we will use
in a science fiction film. Your robot might walk the following definition for a logistics robot: “A robot
and talk as it navigates the same environments with one or more grippers to pick up and move items
as people do. If you work in a factory, you might within a logistics operation such as a warehouse,
picture one of the giant welding robots working sorting center or last-mile”.
24
http://www.forbes.com/sites/jenniferhicks/2013/11/06/first-non-human-will-ring-closing-bell-on-nasdaq/
25
http://money.cnn.com/2012/03/20/technology/amazon-kiva-robots/
26
http://www.bizjournals.com/boston/blog/techflash/2015/10/amazon-now-has-30-000-mass-made-robots-at-its.html
27
http://www.techrepublic.com/article/google-and-robots-the-real-reasons-behind-the-shopping-spree/
28
http://techcrunch.com/2014/01/26/google-deepmind/
29
http://www.oxforddictionaries.com/us/definition/american_english/robot
10 Enabling Technology Trends
The majority of industrial robots working today perform Traditional manufacturing robots have no such ability –
the same movements over and over again all day long. they are blind, dumb, and locked into place. The good
These movements are repeated very precisely and news is that recent advances are just starting to change
accurately. For example, a robot that takes a part out this. Universities and companies around the world are
of a die press places its gripper in the right spot with doing research in areas of computer science and hardware
0.1 mm accuracy. This exact positioning was most likely that advance the perceptive capability of robots to identify
programmed by the engineer who set up the robot work an object, locate its position, and plan a path of motion
cell. What happens if the part the robot is supposed to that will allow the item to be picked up. This is an
pick up is not there? Most of the robots in factories today extremely challenging technical problem to solve that
have no feedback capability. If there is no part to pick up, even a few years ago was nearly impossible.
most robots will still move to the programmed spot and
continue to close the gripper onto thin air. The ultimate robot to support logistics will need to have
some form of “Eyes, Hands, Feet, and Brains”. It will
People have a major advantage over industrial robots – need eyes to see an object, hands to pick it up, feet so
we are able to see an object, walk to it, coordinate our that it can move the object to another place, and brains
movements to grasp it, sense that we are holding it capable of coordinating all these tasks. In this section we
correctly, and make adjustments if anything goes wrong. will discuss the technological advances that are currently
We have the strength and ability to handle all sorts of underway that could eventually give our robots some
objects and shapes with different sizes, surfaces, weights, form of “Eyes, Hands, Feet, and Brains”.
and fragility. In the context of logistics, if we can see it
on a shelf or in a box, we generally have the ability to
‘pick it and pack it’.
Brains:
Computing Power
Cloud
Hands:
Collaboration
Manipulation
Eyes:
Perception
Sensors
Feet:
Mobility
Robotics engineers have been dreaming about lower cost technology can deliver 1 gram sensitivity for a fraction
and better sensors for years but there has always been of the cost of existing systems, in a package durable
a problem that stopped them. The industrial robot industry enough to survive being crushed by a 25 lb weight.32
is not large enough to drive the economies of scale Its sister startup company, Right Hand Robotics, has
necessary to bring the costs of developing new sensors included this technology in a three-fingered robotic
down to a reasonable level. There is one sector, however, hand, enabling this hand to pick up a wide variety of
that has been able to do this: consumer electronics. The items. Right Hand Robotics just raised $3.3 million in
next generation of robots will use advanced computer venture capital to continue its designs, and is currently
algorithms along with low-cost sensors developed for working on developing an order picking system for use
consumer electronics to greatly increase their ability to in distribution centers.33
perceive the world around them. The DHL Low-Cost
Sensor Technology Trend Report outlines further ways One specific consumer item has had a profound effect on
that low-cost sensors are impacting the logistics world. robotics development, and it comes from the world of
video gaming. For the 2011 Christmas season, Microsoft
Over the past two decades, digital cameras have benefited released its Kinect video game controller to the market.
from a huge drop in the cost per megapixel. For example, The Kinect is an inexpensive 3D camera system that can
back in 1992, Apple introduced one of the first home be attached to our home TVs. The camera can ‘watch’
digital cameras called the QuickTake; its introductory price a video game player and track their motion in real time.
was $749 and it could store a grand total of eight photos For example, if the person playing the video game
in memory at a resolution of 0.3 megapixels.30 Compare swings their arm like they are using a tennis racket, the
this to Apple’s latest iPhones and you will find that after corresponding player in the video game would do the
twenty-three years of progress these devices have two same thing. Players at home can jump, duck, punch, and
built-in cameras which cost the company less than $18 in other ways move their onscreen characters, effectively
in parts and offer at least 25x the resolution of the becoming part of the game. While most of the world saw
QuickTake. A key beneficiary of this low-cost, high-
31
this as an advancement for home entertainment, robotics
resolution camera technology is the robotics industry – engineers saw this as an inexpensive sensor that could
now it is feasible to add ‘Eyes’ to the next generation allow them to do things never before possible.
of robots.
One reason that the Kinect has had such an impact is the
Mobile phone cameras are just one element that’s being quality of raw data that the low-cost sensor can provide
repurposed for the robotics world. Robotics startup com- in real time. The camera not only transmits color images
pany TakkTile has developed a low-cost touch sensor based of the items in its view but also provides the distance
on a mobile phone barometer. TakkTile’s breakthrough from the front of the camera to those objects.
30
http://www.engadget.com/2009/07/29/retro-apple-the-quicktake-100-digital-camera/
31
http://www.digitaltrends.com/mobile/iphone-cost-what-apple-is-paying/
32
http://www.takktile.com/
33
http://otd.harvard.edu/news-events/righthand-is-latest-robotics-startup-to-grab-venture-capital-xconomy
12 Enabling Technology Trends
The Kinect can distinguish an object’s depth within one Cameras alone are not enough to give ‘Eyes’ to a robot.
centimeter of accuracy, and its width or height within Sophisticated software is also required to interpret the
three millimeters; and it is sensitive enough to see data from the cameras. The computer science discipline
textures. With advanced software, this information
34
devoted to this research is called machine vision. One of
is good enough to allow a robot to ‘see’ its environment the classic problems of machine vision that is of particular
and locate objects that are in its view. interest to the logistics field is the task called bin picking.
Due to the success of the Kinect, several companies are This requires the robot to use a camera to identify and
developing similar technology. One company, Leap pick up a single part out of pile of similar parts contained
Motion, has developed a comparable sensor for use within a box. Once the image has been given to the com-
with laptops that is 100x more accurate and retails for puter by the camera, advanced programming is required
just $70.35 Like all consumer electronics, this type of to first identify a single part even if it is partially covered.
technology will clearly continue to increase in capability After finding the part, the computer has to understand its
and decrease in cost over time. The robotics world is orientation, ensure that it is a part that can be reached,
poised to benefit greatly from this trend. and then plan a specific path for the arm to follow while
http://www.wired.com/2010/11/tonights-release-xbox-kinect-how-does-it-work/
34
http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/21/3033634/leap-3d-motion-control-system-video
35
Enabling Technology Trends 13
companies and research centers are developing robots to The first reason is the price. The Kinect retailed for
pick apples, oranges, and even cherries. It is not difficult
37
$150 and combined an infrared depth camera, a
to see how advances in fruit picking robots could transfer color video camera, and a microphone array. To give
into better logistics robots in the future. perspective to this price breakthrough, just three years
before the prototype for the Kinect cost $30,000 to
Improving perception ability will allow robots to handle build.39 Microsoft spent more than $500 million dollars
difficult tasks with a wider range of items in more complex developing this technology with a team of over
environments. As perception gets better, we will first see 1,000 people. Never before had the robotics world
more robots in our factories; we will then see robots in been able to access a sensor of this type at this cost.
our distribution centers; and ultimately we may see robots
as part of the final-mile solution, delivering packages The second reason for the Kinect’s success is that
directly to our homes. Microsoft did not attempt to stop people from
‘hacking’ the system and repurposing it for other
uses. In fact, after seeing the demand for the sensor,
Microsoft released easy-to-use developer kits and
professional versions of the sensor. Universities are
now performing breakthrough research using the
Kinect – technology that students could never have
afforded to exploit in the past.
36
http://www.pepperl-fuchs.com/global/en/27566.htm
37
http://www.wsj.com/articles/robots-step-into-new-planting-harvesting-roles-1429781404
38
http://www.wired.com/2011/06/mf_kinect/
39
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/10/24/business/24kinect.html?pagewanted=1&_r=2
14 Enabling Technology Trends
2.2 Hands: Manipulation and This skin even has the ability to sense ‘pre-contact’, mean-
Collaboration ing that the robot can sense when a person is within
10 cm of its arm. This feature to sense humans nearby has
No area of robotics has attracted more recent fanfare been successfully tested on industrial robots – these are
than collaborative robotics. A collaborative robot (also capabilities beyond those that are currently available on
called a cobot) is designed to work with a human operator, the market. It is not difficult to imagine a future when all
positioned near them in a shared workspace. For example, logistics robots will be covered with sensor skins allowing
the operator may perform the first part of a task while them to safely work alongside human workers.
the cobot finishes the rest. In the world of logistics, this
could include robots handling heavy parcels under human
direction or taking on long travel moves to reduce human
walking. According to a new study published by ABI The ability of a robot to work
Research, the collaborative robotics sector is expected around and among people
to increase roughly tenfold between 2015 and 2020, will be critical when bringing
reaching over $1 billion.40 robots into the logistics
environment.
One of the key aspects of the collaborative robotics
concept is the idea of shared workspace. As already Dr. Clemens Beckmann
discussed, for safety reasons traditional industrial robots Executive Vice President Innovation,
are normally locked inside large cages and are designed Post - eCommerce - Parcel (PeP), Deutsche Post DHL Group
to shut down immediately if a person enters their work-
space. Collaborative robots, on the other hand, are being
designed as inherently safe to work around people. This Robots working in distributions centers will need to be
involves new ideas for robotic arms including reducing deployed alongside traditional warehouse employees.
their strength and speed, new types of joints, softer In a parcel hub, sorting robots would have to work
materials, and using advanced sensors to shut down alongside truck drivers. If in the far future parcel delivery
the cobot safely if it accidentally collides with someone. robots would become the norm, they would need to
interact directly with human customers. In all scenarios
it is apparent that collaborative robots within logistics
would be more effective than non-collobarative robots.
40
https://www.abiresearch.com/press/collaborative-robotics-market-exceeds-us1-billion-/
41
http://www.cellularskin.eu/
42
http://newsroom.iza.org/en/2015/03/31/robots-at-work-boosting-productivity-without-killing-jobs/
Enabling Technology Trends 15
robots that can work safely next to people as evidenced the size of a small person and have a lightweight yet rigid
by Universal Robotics’ annual growth rate of 70%+ and magnesium skeleton covered with a floating plastic casing
its recent sale to the company Teradyne for $350 million. that is wrapped in soft padding to absorb impacts.
43
http://www.roboticsbusinessreview.com/article/universal_robots_strikes_again_sells_to_bmw/RB13
44
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/518661/smart-robots-can-now-work-right-next-to-auto-workers/
45
http://roboticsandautomationnews.com/2015/07/21/top-8-industrial-robot-companies-and-how-many-robots-they-have-around-the-world/812/
46
http://www.bosch-presse.de/presseforum/details.htm?txtID=6276&locale=en
16 Enabling Technology Trends
Figure 20: Servo-electric 5-finger gripping hand; Source: Schunk Already, there have been vast improvements in the field
of mobile robotics including improved mapping of envi-
Most industrial robotic hands are either two-fingered ronments, better path planning, longer lasting batteries,
‘pinch’ grippers or rubber vacuum cups. The grippers efficient electric motors, high-speed wireless connections,
are not flexible and are typically designed to match and other innovations. Even the wheels themselves have
the specific items that they pick up. In many factory undergone innovation with the development of omnidi-
applications, the robot requires a change of grippers rectional wheels that can move a robot in any direction
between tasks to ensure that it has the appropriate without turning. This section of the report showcases some
hand for the job. This approach is possible in a example companies that are using these advancements
controlled manufacturing environment, but how to develop innovative mobility solutions that will give
would you handle picking up items in a truly ‘Feet’ to our logistics robots of the future.
unstructured environment, such as an ecommerce
warehouse or sorting center? Knightscope is a startup company in Mountain View,
California, US. It has developed a mobile security robot
The German company Schunk designs and sells that will drive around a factory, warehouse, parking lot,
robotic grippers around the world. It challenged its or even a shopping mall. The robot is designed to de-
engineers to design a gripper that could handle a tect anomalous behavior, such as someone unexpectedly
wide range of items. The answer was to follow walking through a building at night, and report back to a
nature and mimic the human hand with five fingers, remote security center. Called the K5, the robot uses four
twenty joints, and nine motors.47 Available in both high-definition cameras, two laser sensors, GPS, navigation
right- and left-hand models and weighing only equipment, microphones, a computer, and electric motors
1.3 kg, this robotic hand is called the SHV. It can all packed into its dome-shaped body.48 Its battery can last
pick up heavy tools with a ‘power grip’ or delicate for 24 hours and the robot will automatically recharge itself
electronics with a ‘precision grip’ just like a human as necessary. K5 patrols its environment avoiding objects
hand. DHL handles a broad range of differently and creating a map as it goes. It will stop abruptly if a per-
shaped items and parcels each day requiring the son steps into its path and send warnings if someone tries
ultimate material handling flexibility. Using a robotic to disable it. It can work inside or out, including on college
hand that is modeled on the human equivalent may campuses and at sporting events. It is not hard to see that
be the key to giving robots the flexibility needed to this technology could be coupled with a robotic arm for
work in the logistics world. warehouse picking or even eventually, with further
development, repurposed as a package delivery robot.
http://mobile.schunk-microsite.com/en/produkte/produkte/servo-electric-5-finger-gripping-hand-svh.html
47
http://www.technologyreview.com/news/532431/rise-of-the-robot-security-guards/
48
Enabling Technology Trends 17
Swarm of Robots?
http://www.savioke.com/blog/
49
http://www.bbc.com/autos/story/20150824-meet-transwheel-the-self-balancing-autonmous-robotic-parcel-delivery-drone
50
18 Enabling Technology Trends
http://research.ibm.com/cognitive-computing/neurosynaptic-chips.shtml#fbid=MzI_LtI7_Hu
51
http://www.cnet.com/news/ibms-truenorth-processor-mimics-the-human-brain/
52
Enabling Technology Trends 19
While the IBM chip is very promising, we would need to In 2013 a team at the University of California, Berkeley,
put more than 500,000 of them into one robot to give US, worked with Google to test a cloud robotics concept
it the equivalent capacity of the human brain. Of course using Google Goggles image searches. Several objects
a logistics robot would not need this level of computing were placed in front of a robot.
power to be useful. It is likely that a logistics robot would
only need narrow spikes of high processing power while Using a camera, the robot would take a picture of an item
the rest of the time it would need much less, for example and send it to Google’s computers. Using big data analysis
when analyzing a camera image. This is the concept (exploiting the volume, velocity and complexity of available
behind cloud robotics. information), the Google computers identified the item
and sent back information to the robot on how to best
move its hand to reach and pick up the object.55 These
preliminary tests proved that a cloud robotics approach
If many ‘dumb’ robots could could work in a real world environment.
share one large ‘smart’
computer, each taking turns The best example of cloud robotics currently available
at thinking only when needed, to the public is a humanoid robot called Pepper, a social
we could lower the cost of robot that appears engaging, friendly, happy, and commu-
each robot while greatly nicates with voice, touch, and simulated emotions. On sale
increasing its capability. since early 2015, the first 1,000 units sold out in less than
one minute and 6,000 have been sold worldwide.56
Matthias Heutger
Senior Vice President Strategy, Marketing & Innovation;
Deutsche Post DHL Group
53
https://googleblog.blogspot.nl/2010/07/ooh-ahh-google-images-presents-nicer.html
54
http://www.bbc.com/news/technology-10693439
55
http://queue.ieor.berkeley.edu/~goldberg/pubs/Grasping-with-Google-Goggles-icra-2013.pdf
56
http://edition.cnn.com/2015/06/22/tech/pepper-robot-sold-out/
20 Enabling Technology Trends
For a price of $1,600 you can buy a Pepper for your home the individual robot only has enough computational
to play with your children, act as a personal assistant, power to do simple tasks.
or even entertain your guests. Using an array of sensors,
including two cameras and a microphone, Pepper can Using the cloud approach gives Pepper some unique
follow you around a room telling jokes, offering advice, features. Its manufacturer, the French company Aldebaran
and otherwise engaging with the people around it. Robotics, can add new languages to all Pepper robots
Pepper speaks multiple languages and will attempt to at the same time just by upgrading its cloud computer.
understand your emotion state and react accordingly.57 Much as with a cellphone, software upgrades can be
automatically downloaded to the robot to improve
various features and fix bugs as needed.
How can such an inexpensive robot have
these skills? The robots will collectively record data from all of their
interactions and use this to improve their performance
The robot is connected via WiFi and the Internet to over time. In one example presented by Aldebaran, if the
a cloud computer in Japan where all of the difficult robot reads a book that many children like, it may suggest
language and emotional processing happens while that same book to more kids in the future.58
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-3159392/What-s-like-live-Pepper-emotional-robot-Humanoid-gives-compliments-offers-advice-prattles-on.html
57
http://spectrum.ieee.org/automaton/robotics/home-robots/pepper-aldebaran-softbank-personal-robot
58
Enabling Technology Trends 21
2.5 Exoskeletons: The Ultimate in Human Other universities and private companies are starting to
Robotics Collaboration develop exoskeletons as well. They see the opportunity
to improve working conditions for anyone who does
This report has already discussed how robots and people repetitive or heavy manual labor in industries such as
can work together side by side. Some engineers have logistics, manufacturing, forestry, and construction.
asked: Is there a way to go even further and use robotics Exoskeletons promise people the opportunity to work
technology to not merely enhance but actually supplement more productively with less stress, fatigue, injury, and
human performance? ergonomic problems. As people get older, exoskeletons
will allow people to continue to be physically productive
The term exoskeleton comes from nature and means outer later in life, both at work and in our homes. Developments
skeleton. For example, many insects, crabs and lobsters in robotics and exoskeleton technology will go hand in
have exoskeletons to provide support rather than an inner hand; improvements in one will benefit the other.
skeleton like humans do. Roboticists have morphed this
concept into the dream of a ‘robot suit’ that a person can
wear to give them the power, strength, and endurance
that they would not normally have. The suit would strap
onto the body using a harness attached to a robot frame,
sensors, and motors that follow and support a person’s
movements as they lift and carry heavy objects.
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/panasonic-mass-produce-alien-style-robot-exoskeleton-suit-help-workers-heavy-lifting-1509593
59
http://biodesign.seas.harvard.edu/soft-exosuits
60
22 Near Future – Examples in Logistics
The recent advancements discussed in this report have The research finds that just 5% of current warehouses
opened up new possibilities and now some designers have are automated. The reality today is that these automated
turned their attention towards logistics applications that warehouses are typically highly mechanized environments
were not previously possible. The goal of this section of that still employ people in key functions. An example
the trend report is to highlight some examples of robotic would be a modern sorting center which has much higher
systems for the world of logistics that are currently under productivity and accuracy than in previous generations.
development or even available today. Even with all of this advanced technology, in large sorting
hubs there may still be more than 1,000 employees who
spend their time loading and unloading trucks, handling
3.1 Current State of Robotics in Logistics parcel ULD containers, and manually sorting odd-sized items.
Figure 28: DHL Parcel Robot; Source: Deutsche Post DHL Group
The robot moves forward as it works until the entire 3.3 Stationary Piece Picking Robots
truck is unloaded. DHL never rolled out this concept across
its network as in 2003 the technology was insufficiently A traditional warehouse employee typically spends most
mature to implement. of his or her time walking around the warehouse to
gather all of the items for an order. In a manual Amazon
Nevertheless, DHL’s innovative Parcel Robot proved to warehouse, a picker might walk between seven and
the world that robotic unloading was possible and several fifteen miles per shift.64 As previously mentioned, to save
companies have since developed the concept further. labor by reducing the time spent walking, Amazon bought
A US company called Wynright currently offers a truck the company Kiva that builds mobile robots. These robots
unloading robot for sale Like the DHL Parcel Robot,
62
can pick up a shelf of goods and bring the entire shelf to
it unloads boxes onto an extendable conveyor belt at a the picker who stays in one spot, effectively turning these
rate of over 500 parcels per hour. Unlike the DHL robot,
63
humans into stationary assembly line workers. After the
it uses low-cost cameras to locate the boxes rather than picker selects the needed items, the shelf moves away and
more expensive laser scanners. Over time this technology a different shelf arrives to take its place. This so-called
should become more cost effective, faster, and more goods-to-picker concept can be found in several techno-
reliable as cameras, computers, and robotic arms logies on the market today such as Swisslog´s CarryPick
continue to improve. mobile system. It is possible in some cases to save 50%
of warehouse picking labor with these systems through
Companies like Wynright are also developing trailer the elimination of walking. Currently, most of these
loading robots. This application adds further complexity systems are very capital intensive, requiring a network
to the software because the system now has to determine of connected shelves, tracks, robotic shuttles, elevators,
the best way to stack boxes of different shapes and and conveyors. Even after this investment, they still
weights to optimally fill the trailer without damaging require a significant number of people to pick items from
any of the items. an automatically presented plastic tote or mobile shelf.
62
http://www.wynright.com/products/by-product-family/robotic-solutions/truck-and-container-loading-and-unloading/
63
http://dhbusinessledger.com/Content/Richard-R--Klicki-s-Business-Tech/Richard-R--Klicki-s-Business-Tech/Article/Wynright-s-robot-brings-tech-to-the-loading-
dock/107/197/9458
64
http://www.businessinsider.com/working-conditions-at-an-amazon-warehouse-2013-2?IR=T
24 Near Future – Examples in Logistics
65
http://www.ssi-schaefer.us/automated-systems/systems-products/picking-systems/schaefer-robo-pick.html
66
https://www.knapp.com/cms/cms.php?pageName=glossary&iD=87
67
http://us.viastore.com/order-picking-systems/viapick/
68
http://www.engadget.com/2015/06/01/amazon-picking-challenge-winner/
Near Future – Examples in Logistics 25
One of the best things to come out of the Amazon It is the need for a large and expensive goods-to-picker
challenge is that these new bright students are not system to support the robots. Another issue is that these
afraid to tackle logistics problems and see that there large systems are not easy to move from one building
is still great potential to impact the future. to another when a distribution network changes. In most
cases the system would need to be scrapped instead of
These systems show a lot of promise and will improve moved, due to its complexity and sheer size. These systems
over time as vision technology and grip planning may be affordable for the largest warehouses but what
algorithms are refined, allowing for a wider array of about mid-size to small operations? Could robotic picking
items to be handled beyond small rectangular boxes. be developed to eliminate the need for a goods-to-picker
There is one major downside to this approach, however. solution?
http://www.logisticsmgmt.com/article/the_robots_are_coming_part_iii
69
26 Near Future – Examples in Logistics
and an update in June 2014 made the robot twice as fast 3.6 Home Delivery Robots
and twice as precise. One key goal for Baxter’s design
70
team was to create a robot that an average person could In November 2015, a startup company in London, UK,
train just by grabbing one of the robot’s arms and leading called Starship Technologies announced that it will begin
it through a simple task. This would allow Baxter to ‘learn’ building and selling parcel delivery robots.71 Started by
the task and perform it over and over again. All of these two of Skype’s original co-founders, the company already
capabilities are now available for the unheard-of low has strong funding and a team of engineers.
price of $30,000 per robot.
Although only at the prototype stage now, the Starship
team is dreaming big. It is developing a small mobile
robot that can drive on sidewalks at 6 km/h and deliver
packages directly to consumer homes. Capable of carrying
the equivalent of two grocery bags, the goal is for the
robot to complete deliveries within 30 minutes from a
local hub or retail outlet. Customers will be able to choose
from a selection of short, precise delivery slots – meaning
goods arrive at a time that suits them. During delivery,
shoppers will track the robot’s location in real time through
a mobile app and, on arrival, only the customer can unlock
the cargo with their phone. It is intended that the robot
drives autonomously while, at the same time, it is overseen
by human operators who can step in to ensure safety at
Figure 34: Baxter at the DHL Asia Pacific Innovation Center; all times.
Source: Deutsche Post DHL Group
Starship Technologies is currently testing and demonstrat-
In theory, Baxter should be perfect for co-packing since it ing prototypes and plans to launch the first pilot services
was originally designed for end-of-production-line packing in the UK, US, and other countries in 2016. Some compe-
applications. DHL has purchased several Baxter robots and titors to Starship, such as the California-based Dispatch
is currently evaluating the system in a laboratory setting. Robotics in the US, also plan to run real-world tests in
Baxter was a first-generation model for Rethink Robotics 2016 while others, such as Ecotranzit72 are still in the
and, although it incorporated innovative ideas and new concept design phase.
technology in ways never before seen, testing has shown
that it cannot yet handle all common co-packing tasks. The ground delivery robot concept is an interesting
Recently the company has developed a second robot, companion to the idea of using drones for delivery.
called Sawyer, that is supposed to solve many of the issues You can learn more about drone delivery in the DHL
found with Baxter while keeping the positive aspects. Unmanned Aerial Vehicles In Logistics Trend Report.
Time will tell if Sawyer or Baxter will be a success in the
market. As with Baxter, DHL will soon be testing Sawyer to
determine where it might fit into the world of logistics.
70
http://www.betaboston.com/news/2014/06/19/baxter-gets-faster-as-rethink-gives-its-worker-robot-an-upgrade/
71
https://www.starship.xyz/
72
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/globe-drive/culture/technology/shipping-robot-would-deliver-packages-faster-and-not-block-streets/article27506428/
28 Future Vision Future Vision 29
4 FUTURE VISION Employees will train the robots through simple interfaces
to do easy and repetitive tasks, and these humans will take
on the more challenging work themselves. Both small and
Throughout this report, we have seen many important large warehouses will enjoy productivity gains as we add –
improvements in robotics technology, along with clear on an as-needed basis – the robots that have proved to be
evidence that robots are now starting to enter the world successful in supporting the existing workforce.
of logistics. In the preceding chapter, we explored the
innovative new technologies that, with further develop- Workers will be able to flex and scale operational capacity
ment, could soon be ready for full-scale testing. So looking according to changing demand simply by adding more
ahead, in this chapter we consider what will happen when robots to cover peaks and automatically removing them
these latest technologies mature and become widely avail- from the building (relocating them to where they are
able. The following is one possible snapshot of our future. next needed) to rebalance the distribution network.
And we will experience the emergence of a robot leasing,
rental, and pre-owned market allowing companies to
4.1 Distribution Centers reduce capital investments while further increasing
operational flexibility.
Compared with the distribution centers of today, the
robotic warehouses of our future are likely to improve
in almost every metric. These highly scalable facilities will
be more flexible and faster to relocate; they will achieve
higher productivity with increased quality.
4.3 Last-Mile Delivery What about larger items? They will still be delivered to
our homes by human employees, but they will be using
In future, the general public will interface with robots on exoskeletons to safely lift heavy weights. They may be
a daily basis. We won’t fear for our physical safety because assisted by mobile robots carrying several items and following
these robots will avoid bumping into us using advanced behind the human along their route. If you live in a large
sensors such as cameras, laser scanners, and proximity sens- apartment building, a small mobile delivery robot may
ing skin. Using cloud computing techniques, these robots automatically take the elevator to your floor and, once
will provide high-quality customer service; they will be able outside your front door, call your mobile phone. You will
to speak our language, react to our emotions, and access simply open your door and enter a code into the robot;
appropriate account information to ensure successful this allows a compartment to open, and you will be able
interaction. The first robots that we are likely to encounter to access your parcel. If you live in a remote area, a drone
are the ones at local parcel service centers. Here, a robot may message you from your driveway and require a similar
assistant may help us to ship a present to an old friend. access code procedure. In both cases, you will be able to
preplan the delivery time to fit your daily schedule since
Another everyday occurrence could be the receipt of this single parcel delivery vehicle will be sent only to you.
an email informing us that there’s a small package for
collection at a mobile parcel locker located outside a What if you are not home? Your own personal robot will
nearby store. How did it get there? Early each morning be able to open the front door to accept the parcel on your
these lockers will be swapped out by self-driving trucks behalf. It’s more than likely that our homes, cars, and per-
for lockers holding new parcels which have been preload- sonal robots will all work together in the future, ensuring
ed the evening before by robots at the local sorting center. we always receive our deliveries safely and on time!
34 Conclusion and Outlook
Every day we interact with products that were built Retailers like Amazon are leading the way, embracing
by robots and yet we never think about it. These robots robotics technology by making large investments. Equip-
impact our world even though they are hidden away ment providers see this trend and are designing robots
in factories that we never see. We are entering a point into their logistics systems as the cost of the technology
in time when robots will become more visible and drops and capabilities improve.
impact our lives more directly: in our stores, in our
offices, and in our homes. And as robots improve and With these advances, we are seeing first examples of
our acceptance of them grows, they will also enter self-contained mobile picking robots as well as robot
the world of logistics. forklifts entering distribution centers, and initial trials
seem positive. There is still a long way to go before
Interest in the field of robotics is clearly increasing. robotics technology is ready and major improvements
More funding is pouring into development than ever are still required but many of the pieces are now in
before from governments, large companies, and venture place to drive progress.
capitalists. Low-cost sensors and faster computers have
made previously impossible challenges more manageable. It seems clear that it is not a matter of “if” but rather
Engineering students now see true potential for advance- “when” robots will be working in our parcel sorting
ment, and are being enticed into this field by exciting hubs, distribution centers, and delivery vans. The business
jobs in robotics. leaders of the future need to understand this technology
and start planning for the day when it provides a viable
Studies show that there will be a labor shortage in many solution to ever-growing pressures on the supply chain.
developed countries over the course of the next twenty
years. This is problematic for e-commerce, which increases The history of robotics includes many stories of hype and
the need for labor in warehouses and greatly adds to disappointment, but if you take a step back you can see
the number of parcels flowing to consumer homes. steady progress. There is an incredible difference between
the robots of the 1960s and those of today. The speed
Finding enough labor for the logistics industry could of progress is increasing rapidly with new advancements
become extremely difficult or even impossible. In and breakthroughs happening every day. Our young
answer to this, managers are learning the advantages children can’t picture a world without computers and
of supplementing workers with collaborative robots, it is likely that their children will feel the same way about
effectively allowing people to do more complex and robots. The outlook for robotics is very positive and the
rewarding tasks while at the same time improving world of logistics will benefit from the coming advances
overall productivity. in robotics technology.
Sources 35
SOURCES
Agrobot Schunk
http://www.agrobot.com/ourcompany.html http://mobile.schunk-microsite.com/en/produkte/produkte/servo-electric-
5-finger-gripping-hand-svh.html
Aldebaran
https://www.aldebaran.com/en/press/gallery/pepper Slashgear
http://cdn.slashgear.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/K5-2.0-Green.jpg.jpg
Computer History Museum
http://s7.computerhistory.org/is/image/CHM/500004901- Starship Technologies
03-01?$re-medium$ https://www.starship.xyz/
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