Voting Behavior

Initiatives to change or sidestep presidential term limits are often presented as a response to popular demand, yet tend to be deeply polarizing and may even lead to violence. Opinion on the legality of changing term limits tends to be sharply divided not only in the country concerned but also among the international community. In an effort to fine-tune policy debate, this paper looks at the normative framework relating to term limits and their removal. It recommends that, in the absence of clear international norms, the issue be approached as a matter of maintaining confidence in a country’s electoral process and political system. This means focusing on the process by which term limits might be amended or interpreted.

This paper uses secondary and primary data to examine up to which point the electoral success obtained by VOX during 2018-19 might have been due to unfavorable immigration attitudes. Results suggest that indeed, VOX voters hold more unfavorable views on immigration than the voters of other right-of-center parties. However, it is unclear to what extent those views determined their voting decision. And albeit we find perceptions of discrimination regarding the access to public resources and unease regarding deteriorating work conditions to be widespread among the autochthonous populace, such perceptions trigger rather little hostility against immigrants; rather, those problems are blamed on politicians and entrepreneurs. These results highlight the importance of nuanced approaches that avoid interpreting any migration-related qualms or critique as inherently illegitimate out-group denigration

Survey data collected from multiethnic samples of geographically dispersed college students and a national probability sample of US adults were utilized to examine the correlates of support for multiculturalism and assimilation—two competing interethnic ideologies, or ideals for how an ethnically diverse society should optimally function. Endorsement of multiculturalism and assimilation was related to perceived ethnic group differences, intergroup bias, and voting behavior on a number of public policies, but in opposite directions. Relative to white participants, ethnic minority participants endorsed multiculturalism to a greater extent, reported higher levels of group identification, and were more likely to support pro-diversity public policies. Discussion focuses on explanations for the variety of observed differences between ethnic minority and majority respondents, on the meaning of assimilation and multiculturalism, and on the argument that harmony between ethnic groups and dissimilarity between ethnic groups need not be thought of as mutually exclusive.

Esta investigación cuestiona el saber convencional de la disciplina acerca de las causas del voto y de la abstención en varios aspectos cruciales. El estudio demuestra que el consenso acerca de la supuesta irrelevancia de las variables del modelo del votante instrumental ha de ser puesto en cuarentena. Este modelo es capaz de explicar mucho más de lo que se suele aceptar, lo que pone en entredicho que el voto sea el talón de Aquiles de los modelos de elección racional en ciencia política. Para llegar a estas conclusiones, el trabajo analiza diferentes fuentes de beneficios instrumentales (información imperfecta, racionalidad limitada, minimización del riesgo) con bases de datos holandesas y españolas especialmente adecuadas para investigar las causas del voto. Los resultados cuestionan asimismo la aceptación acrítica de que los ciudadanos votan guiados exclusivamente por consideraciones morales y por otras razones relacionadas con el valor intrínseco del voto (deseo de apoyar a la democracia, expresividad, beneficios selectivos). La decisión de votar no puede ser explicada apelando solo al homo economicus o al homo sociologicus: ambos homini deben estar presentes para que la mayoría de ciudadanos se decida a votar. Una contribución adicional del estudio es su formulación de modelos pioneros que tratan como endógenas las variables del modelo instrumental y de las explicaciones no instrumentales del voto.

Article aimed to analyses about construction of voting behavior in Indonesia election implementation. It urge and significant to elaborate and scrutinize political preferential which became base foundation to elect and submit their vote. There are two prominent factor can be main tools to covering voting behavior trend In Indonesia. Firstly, figures presumably primary sources to mention constructing public voting behavior. In Indonesia post authoritarian era, democracy has been suspended due to emergence of strong figure. This become ironic in implementation of democracy when hijacked oligarchic power that still persist and insist their resources in recent era. Secondly, analyzing of voting behavior in Indonesia has been swiftly in every election. It's important to note that main character of voting behavior is swing voters dominated by young residents. Therefore, voting behavior trend fluctuated depending on issue and media news, become main consideration public to elect and submit their vote. In addition to both factor, emergence of political broker in recent election has indicated urgent needs to bridging voter and candidate in order to more engage. Those three factor will be primary focus to be elaborated in this paper, how recent trend in voting behavior in Indonesia and its impact to election event.

Right-wing populism has been gaining traction over the past two decades. Once relatively minor players in democratic politics, populist parties today mobilize millions of voters and garner unprecedented electoral support with their anti-immigrant discourse. But what has changed to make populists so much stronger now than in the last century? Explanations in the literature tend to focus either on economic concerns or the cultural threat posed by immigrants with distinct languages and traditions. This paper examines these explanations from the literature and builds on them to argue that perceptions of economic and cultural threats feed off each other, and increasingly so with increased immigration from less culturally similar regions. We begin with the assumption that voter sentiment toward non-natives runs the gamut from strongly negative to positive, with more voters being willing to support right-wing populists at the polls in line with increases in perceived economic concerns and fears that immigration will dilute or drown out native culture. When these combine-when increased flows of culturally distant immigrants coincide with economic hard times-voters who normally would support mainstream parties and tolerate immigration are more likely to turn to populists. We test arguments from the literature and our interactive hypothesis using data from the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES).

Este artículo reexamina la idea de Lijphart (1997) de que el voto obligatorio sea un instrumento efectivo para reducir la desigualdad del ingreso con un diseño de investigación cuasi experimental basado en la técnica de matching. Los resultados muestran que el voto obligatorio no tiene un impacto significativo sobre las políticas redistributivas. En base a la experiencia de América Latina, donde predomina el voto obligatorio junto a alta desigualdad de ingresos, el artículo sostiene que el problema empírico del argumento lijphartiano se encuentra en el supuesto implícito de la existencia de un vínculo programático entre políticos y electores. Se sugiere como hipótesis alternativa que la combinación de alta participación electoral y alta desigualdad puede deberse a la prevalencia de un vínculo clientelar, frecuente en democracias con instituciones débiles.

O presente artigo tem por objetivo apresentar os resultados de uma pesquisa que buscou verificar se o afastamento dos jovens do processo eleitoral, no contexto do voto, configura a despolitização dessa nova geração ou uma nova forma de participação política. Além do debate sobre a concepção do voto, nossa pesquisa girou em torno da problematização dos motivos pelos quais a participação política destes jovens é vista como despolitização – principalmente pelas outras gerações, como por exemplo, a que viveu sua juventude na década de 1980, período que abrange o processo de redemocratização brasileira. A compreensão das formas alternativas de sua participação também foi cerne de nossa análise.

ABSTRACT This paper aims to present the results of one research which that sought verify if the removal of young people in the electoral process, in the context of voting, characterizes the depoliticization of this new generation or another way of political participation. Beyond the debate about the design of voting, our research worked around the questioning of why the political participation of young people nowadays is seen as depoliticization – mainly by other generations, for example, that one who lived our youth in the 80`s decade, period that covers the process of democratization in Brazil. The understanding of this alternative kinds of participations also was the core of our analysis.

Français
Le refus des élections politiques est devenu avec le temps un principe fondamental du mouvement anarchiste, au point de constituer aujourd’hui un élément important de son identité. C’est le cas à la Fédération anarchiste, où l’abstentionnisme fait figure de norme. En étudiant l’organisation comme une institution, l’article s’intéresse à la façon dont cette norme est appropriée, pour faire partie intégrante du rôle militant. Devenir militant de l’organisation signifie dès lors devenir abstentionniste, et tout manquement à ce principe est sanctionné par la désapprobation du groupe. Bien que difficile, la transgression n’est cependant pas impossible, même si elle tend généralement à demeurer secrète. Ce n’est que dans des circonstances exceptionnelles que certains militants s’autorisent à contester publiquement la norme anti-électorale. Ils s’appliquent toutefois à le faire au nom des objectifs mêmes de l’institution et à affirmer le caractère ponctuel de la transgression, ce qui diminue la portée de leur dissidence.

Anglais
English
Throughout history, the refusal to participate in political elections has become a basic rule of the anarchist movement. It is now part of its identity and it is therefore a core principle of the French Anarchist Federation. This article intends to study the organization as an institution by focusing on how activists’ roles are learned and enacted. It shows that non-voting is considered as a part of the role of every member in the institution, and that failing to play it correctly exposes the individual to strong disapproval from the group. But this does not mean that it is impossible to infringe the rule, although deviance tends to remain hidden most of the time. Only in exceptional circumstances can the general rule be challenged, but in order to be heard, those who challenge it can only claim to do so on account of the institution’s goals and in very specific conditions, which somehow weakens their undertaking.

Various academic authors have analyzed the implementation and the impact of the permanent campaign strategy by political executives in presidential and parliamentary systems, notably the United States and United Kingdom. This article builds on this literature and extends the research on the permanent campaign in the European parliamentary majoritarian context by examining contemporary Greece as a national case study. The research focuses on the cases of three successive Greek prime ministers: the center-left Kostas Simitis (1996–2004), the center-right Kostas Karamanlis (2004–2009), and the left-of-center George Papandreou (2009–2011). In particular, the article addresses two issues: whether these premiers exercised a permanent campaign strategy and what effect the permanent campaign had on their popularity. The conclusion is that all three did adopt a permanent campaign strategy, yet the impact on their public approval was weak, aligning themselves with their British and American counterparts.

High school students participated in a field experiment that tested the effects of exposure to early election returns in a nonpartisan referendum. On a pretest of attitudes, students stated their preferences on the issue of the school's grading
policy. One week later, just before voting, subjects in the experimental condition received infonnation announcing the probable outcome of the election. There was a significant relationship between class achievement level and (a) likelihood of
changing vote, and (b) the direction of change. Students in the brighter classes
changed their votes less frequently, but when they changed their preferences they showed a greater bandwagon effect. Students in the classes of lower academic achievement changed their votes more frequently, but when they changed their
preferences they showed a greater underdog effect. Differences between the more typical political election in which bandwagon and underdog effects are seldom reported and the experimental election were discussed.

The goal of this article is to identify the factors that led the voters of Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE) in 2008 to abandon electorally this political party in the 2011 general elections and opt for other alternative. In 2011, PSOE obtained its worst electoral result in history as it lost more than four millions voters with respect to 2008. I argue that the explanation must combine short term (valence issues, party leaders, retrospective evaluation) and long-term factors (party proximity) and that its explanatory power differs depending on the alternative for which the voter opted. Methodologically, I employ multinomial logistic regression as the most appropriate technique for the analysis of individual electoral behaviour with a nominal dependent variable that has more than two categories. I use data from a panel survey study carried out by Centro de Investigaciones Sociológicas between November 2011 and January 2012.

The paper focuses on party preferences of Turkish voters within the spatial model of voting that proved to be a successful explanatory framework in various other countries. The analysis
is based on spatial theory of electoral competition and its statistical implementation using
survey data. The paper aims at depicting the cognitive  organization of voters’ attitudes about issues and evaluations of political parties that compete for their vote. The spatial map derived from a survey of urban settlers show that the dominant ideological dimension sets secularists
vs. pro-Islamists as expected from the center-periphery framework often used in Turkish electoral analyses. The second dimension reflects the impact of recent conflict involving the
Kurdish minority on rising nationalist sentiments. Given a general depiction of the Turkish political space, we examine the impact of various demographic characteristics as well as issue
evaluations on individuals’ ideal positions in the space.

The Tweed Ring spawned a vibrant financial sector that was integral to its brief success but has never been previously examined. William “Boss” Tweed and his allies employed banks controlled or comanaged by Tammany politicians to embezzle funds, build political alliances, and invest in a wide array of business ventures. The capital of these savings and commercial banks—city money, deposits from Catholic charities, and the savings of immigrant laborers—was accumulated through political channels. During their operation between 1867 and 1871, politician-bankers engaged in a mix of patronage deals and profit-driven financial speculation. In effect, Tammany banks were ground zero for the Ring's conversion of political hegemony into a windfall of economic capital that fueled party activities and buoyed personal fortunes. Importantly, the anti-Ring mobilization by upper-class reformers was more than a revolt of wealthy taxpayers concerned with abstract goals of good government or rescuing city credit; it was also a reaction by old-line bankers in direct competition with Tammany upstarts. A dramatic bank run catalyzed by reformers in November 1871 drove them into bankruptcy, bringing this novel experiment in political capitalism to an end.

The purpose of this research is to highlight the relationship between the Digital Age (1950-) and Black identity, and how they play a role in African American political participation in the United States. For the purpose of this study, social media is specified as any major Social Network Site (SNS), and Black identity refers to the unifying characteristics related to ethnic background, experiences, culture, societal roles, group norms, and beliefs shared by members of the Black community in the United States of America. The first phase of research reviews how SNS have helped provide a voice to African Americans. The second phase discusses the appearance of Black separatist phenomenon within SNS. The third phase solidifies the radical ways in which new movements in the Black community have originated as a result of SNS. Scholarly and reputable sources are used to provide facts and conclusions on the subjects included in this report. Overall, research and statistical analysis has proven a correlation exists between innovative political participation among African Americans and the progression of the Digital age.

Condorcet’s jury theorem provides a theoretical foundation for why we should put our faith in the decisions of collectives. However, it assumes that individuals vote truthfully regardless of whether they are voting in isolation or in a group setting. We present a two-stage Bayesian game in which members of the jury share a common goal of delivering justice, but may disagree over the defendant’s guilt. The jurors are rational expected utility maximisers who draw two independent signals, conveying their verdict preference and verdict certainty, and must then optimally select whether to vote truthfully or falsify their preferences in the initial vote taken by the jury. The consequences of non-unanimity in the initial vote are the jury deliberations, where jurors compete in a tournament to convince members of the opposing preference faction to vote acquiesce. We derive that the probability that all jurors vote truthfully is greater under a secret ballot in ambiguous trials that produce similarly sized preference factions, and is greater under a public vote in unambiguous cases with a clear majority faction in favour of either conviction or acquittal. We then conduct causal 2SLS estimation and empirically verify that the secret ballot increases truthful voting in ambiguous trials by 8.4%, but detect no significant effect in unambiguous trials. We overcome endogeneity concerns by instrumenting the jury’s choice over the secrecy of the initial vote with previous juror experience and whether the judge gifted the jury with notebooks for the trial, and our 2SLS estimates are robust to estimation by a two-step GMM procedure. We conclude by recommending that judges mandate the use of a secret ballot, in order to mitigate the extensive and persist societal costs associated with lying on juries.

The 2018 Fiji elections were finally concluded with the official results announced on November 18. FijiFirst will form Government with 27 seats in the 51-seat parliament, and the Social Democratic Liberal Party (SODELPA) and the National Federation Party (NFP) will form the Opposition, with 21 and three seats respectively. Much of the reporting by state-inclined media organisations has been emphatic about FijiFirst's victory and the Opposition's loss. However, a comparison of the 2014 and 2018 election results reveals a more complex picture of the losses and gains made by the three main parties.

Дисертація на здобуття наукового ступеня кандидата юридичних наук за спеціальністю 12.00.02 «Конституційне право; муніципальне право». – Національний юридичний університет імені Ярослава Мудрого, Міністерство освіти і науки України, Харків, 2017. У роботі досліджується виборча система України як конституційно-правовий інститут. Автор розкриває поняття, ознаки та системоутворюючі елементи виборчої системи. Аналізуються існуючі в науці розуміння категорії виборча система, а також типи праворозуміння виборчої системи та її місце в структурі демократії. Розглянуто критерії проектування виборчих систем на базі положень міжнародно-правових актів та джерел «м’якого права» у сфері виборчої інженерії. Обґрунтовується висновок, що зміст правового критерію проектування виборчих систем та межі конституційного контролю визначаються принципами рівного виборчого права (активного матеріального, активного формального, пасивного) та принципом відповідності результатів виборів волі народу. Розкрито доктрину «політичної доцільності» в аспекті виборчої системи як об’єкта конституційного контролю. Проводиться характеристика комплексних елементів виборчої системи, а саме виборчого округу, виборчої формули та структури виборчого бюлетеня. Досліджується генезис і перспективи вдосконалення виборчої інженерії в Україні на рівні парламентських, президентських та місцевих виборів.

Les investisseurs institutionnels détiennent la majorité des actifs financiers dans les économies industrialisées, ce qui leur confère un rôle essentiel dans les sociétés cotées en bourse, pour les individus, pour l’environnement et pour le fonctionnement du système économique dans son ensemble. Longtemps considérés comme des pourvoyeurs de capitaux passifs, les investisseurs institutionnels s’engagent de plus en plus en leur qualité d’actionnaires.

L’étude propose une réflexion analytique de l’engagement actionnarial des investisseurs institutionnels. A cet effet, l’engagement actionnarial est étudié comme un mécanisme de gouvernance et de prise de décision d’une collectivité, ainsi que comme un moyen par lequel les investisseurs institutionnels assument leur responsabilité fiduciaire envers leurs bénéficiaires finaux.

Ce cours se propose d’analyser les principaux enjeux de l'entrée en démocratie, une question ici mise en relation constante avec la forme de l'Etat et les dynamiques sociales qui traversent chaque société. Approches théoriques, critères servant à évaluer la « sincérité » des élections, controverses scientifiques, exemples concrets de « transition vers la démocratie » : cet enseignement entend amener les étudiants à adopter une perspective critique sur la nature et les voies de ce changement tenu aujourd’hui pour l’horizon même de la politique, ainsi que sur la définition et les frontières de la « démocratie électorale ».

“An Insider's View of the Last Campaign” is presented as a personal narrative in order to provide a closer, "insider’s," view of how one of America's most powerful local political clubs - The Madison Club of Brooklyn fell apart. The result was the end of the group's seventy-five year reign over politics and patronage. In the years to come political historians will probably argue that the once invincible Madison Club candidates lost to a rag-tag group of political novices because of issues such as corruption and capital punishment. The insider’s view shows something very different. It shows individuals and groups wrestling with each other over personal needs and aspirations tinged with racial, religious and ethnic undertones. In other words, this chapter shows that politics is a very human game.

The article provides an assessment of the most recent literature on political leadership by focusing on its effects on voters’ cognition and behavior, in the light of the ongoing personalization of politics. The changing role of political leaders in contemporary democracies is assessed through a perspective aimed at linking leadership theory and political science. One of the major consequences of the personalization of politics seems to lie in the changing expectations of voters with respect to the personal profile of their leaders. This is due to the lowering effects of television and parallel attempts by leaders to appeal voters on the basis of perceived similarities. As to the leaders’ effect on individual voting behavior, we highlight the various reasons that can enhance (or constrain) the role of party leaders’ image in the voting calculus. Implications and directions for further research are discussed in the concluding section.

¿Qué efectos recíprocos produce la interdependencia asimétrica entre China y dos pequeños Estados latinoamericanos, Ecuador y Costa Rica, en el periodo 2001-2015? Para contestar la pregunta central y las preguntas subsidiarias del libro, se recurre a las principales teorías y conceptos de las Relaciones Internacionales como disciplina de estudio. Se analiza a la interdependencia asimétrica como una situación en la que se producen efectos recíprocos como resultado de un contexto de intercambio entre los países. Sin embargo, de dicho intercambio se derivan costos recíprocos que no son necesariamente simétricos y, por tanto, los beneficios mutuos no están garantizados (Keohane y Nye 1977).

Disponible en: https://www.flacso.edu.ec/node/111?id=7553

This is the pre-print working paper version, see the full printed version: http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/journal_of_democracy/v025/25.3.onuch.html

The protests that began in Ukraine’s capital of Kyiv on 21 Novem- ber 2013 and became known as the EuroMaidan took even seasoned observers of East European politics by surprise. By December, around 800,000 “ordinary” Ukrainians were demonstrating in Kyiv and other cities across the country. The rapid rise of mass protests, especially at a time when the world’s established democracies are struggling with growing political apathy and declining voter turnout, appears as what Timur Kuran has called one of those moments “when out of never you have a revolution.”1 These episodes may help the cause of democ- racy, but they can also destabilize countries by polarizing citizens and boosting extremists. In order to gauge what a protest outbreak will mean for a country’s democratic prospects, it is crucial to understand who the bulk of the protesters are and what goals they hope to achieve. Here follows original survey data that may help to shed light on Euro- Maidan protest participation and its implications for democratic hopes in Ukraine.

Sinopsis: Los sistemas económicos en sus diferentes escalas: regional, nacional y mundial son ejemplos paradigmáticos de sistemas complejos. El conjunto de interacciones, con frecuencia no lineales, que se establecen entre los diferentes agentes económicos son el crisol del cual surgen las propiedades emergentes, sellos distintivos de estos sistemas. Los padres fundadores de la teoría económica lograron vislumbrarlas, sólo que no poseían las herramientas necesarias para su plena comprensión. La situación actual es diferente, de una endémica escasez de datos hemos pasado a un arrollador tsunami de cifras económicas. Las computadoras digitales se han convertido en las herramientas básicas de investigación que nos permiten indagar con una profundidad antes imposible sobre los fenómenos económicos. Esto ha permitido el uso de los conceptos, métodos y herramientas de la teoría de los sistemas complejos para un mayor conocimiento de los fenómenos económicos. Esperamos que este libro ayude al lector a adentrarse en el ámbito de la complejidad de los sistemas económicos y contribuya a la difusión de los principios de la teoría de los sistemas complejos en la docencia universitaria.