CN109685312A - Warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under a kind of catchment of basin time - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under a kind of catchment of basin time, step includes: 1) to collect silt arrester data and secondary precipitation data；2) topological relation discriminant function between the above and below the dam of alluvial plain is established, silt arrester is numbered step by step；3) height of dam-storage-capacity curve function for establishing every silt arrester, finds maximum play precipitation；4) rainfall is simulated；5) silt arrester dam break discriminant function is established；6) the chain dam break model of basin warping dam system is established, is simulated, the dam break critical excitation approaches and dam break sequence on every dam of warping dam system are calculated；7) warping dam system failure risk probability is calculated；8) warping dam system failure risk probability and warping dam system cumulative failure risk probability corresponding to dam break Critical Rainfall are calculated, risk area is divided, according to the maximum play estimate of rainfall basin warping dam system failure risk grade.Method of the invention relies on little data quick discrimination warping dam system failure risk.
Description
Technical field
The invention belongs to engineering measures of soil and water conservation assessment technique field, it is related to silt arrester under a kind of basin time catchment
It is failure risk evaluation method.
Background technique
Loess plateau is China or even soil erosion area the most serious in the world, is that China's water and soil conservation is built with ecology
If key area.Currently, loess plateau is mainly faced with drought and water shortage and the big ecological problem of soil erosion two.From new China at
Since vertical, China implements a series of ecological constructions and erosion and torrent control works in loess plateau, achieves significant effect.
Silt arrester is that basin water-soil is kept in improvement system as an important engineering measure in water-and-soil conservation measures
One important defence line.Flood, silt can be retained on the spot by " block, store, becoming silted up ", effectively prevent soil erosion, again by silt arrester
Can silt, the problem of effective solution loess plateau severe water and soil erosion and drought and water shortage, organically unified ecology
The relationship that environmental construction and the local masses get rich, has significant ecological benefits, social benefit, economic benefit.Currently, loess is high
Up to ten thousand of original area silt arrester plays great function, warping dam system during the prevention and control of soil erosion of the Yellow River using dam system as unit
Safe operation prevents and treats important in inhibiting to Regional Erosion, and the research in the field rarely has achievement, particular without basin time
The chain dam break model of warping dam system under condition of raining, warping dam system failure risk is difficult to carry out effectively under watershed time catchment
Evaluation.
Summary of the invention
The object of the present invention is to provide warping dam system failure risk evaluation methods under a kind of catchment of basin time, improve
The efficiency of quick discrimination warping dam system failure risk under Basin Rainfall event.
The technical scheme adopted by the invention is that warping dam system failure risk evaluation side under a kind of catchment of basin time
Method is specifically implemented according to the following steps:
Step 1 determines research basin, collects silt arrester data and rainfall event data；
Upstream and downstream topological relation data between the silt arrester that step 2, basis are collected into, are established on silt arrester by computer
The discrimination standard of topological relation discriminant function between downstream, the discriminant function is:
The multiple silt arrester B being distributed on the same tributary in basin, if runoff imports mutually same seat silt arrester A's after dam break
Storage capacity, then this silt arrester A is the father dam of remaining silt arrester B, remaining silt arrester B is known as sub- dam, and sub- dam natural number is compiled at random
Number, father dam number is that sub- dam natural number random number maximum number adds one, according to the principle watershed from minimum level-one tributary
It is numbered step by step to mainstream silt arrester:
Step 3, the dam height of silt dam according to being collected into, storage capacity data, establish the height of dam-of every silt arrester in a computer
Storage-capacity curve function finds maximum field single storm according to the rainfall event data being collected into；
Step 4, according to Method of Stochastic, a rainfall is drawn up by computer mould；
Step 5, on the basis of step 3 and step 4, according to area between the Dam being collected into, calculate and drop between dam
The run-off height of dam corresponding with the run-off that rain generates, and establish silt arrester dam break discriminant function；
Step 6 establishes basin warping dam system chain dam break model on the basis of step 5, is simulated, calculates alluvial plain
The dam break critical excitation approaches on the dam dam Xi Meizuo and dam break sequence；
Step 7 calculates warping dam system failure risk probability, all silts in basin according to the silt arrester storage capacity that step 1 is collected into
The sum of ground dam storage capacity is defined as warping dam system storage capacity, and every silt arrester storage capacity and warping dam system storage capacity ratio are defined as warping dam system
Failure risk probability；
Step 8 calculates silt corresponding to dam break Critical Rainfall according to Probability Principles according to step 3, step 6, step 7
Ground dam system failure risk probability and warping dam system cumulative failure risk probability, and risk is carried out, divide low-risk area, moderate wind
The basin warping dam system failure risk grade is evaluated according to maximum field single storm in danger zone, high risk area.
The invention has the advantages that the evaluation method, data are easy to obtain, it is simple, simple and convenient to calculate, and pass through acquisition
Research basin silt arrester data, secondary rainfall data quick discrimination warping dam system failure risk and can carry out grade classification.
Detailed description of the invention
Fig. 1 is Wangmaogou watershed warping dam system dam break sequence result schematic diagram in embodiment of the present invention method；
Fig. 2 is that Wangmaogou watershed warping dam system cumulative failure risk and classification results are illustrated in embodiment of the present invention method
Figure.
Specific embodiment
The following describes the present invention in detail with reference to the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.
Method of the invention, is specifically implemented according to the following steps:
Step 1 determines research basin, collects silt arrester data and rainfall event data,
Silt arrester data includes on-site investigation and data, such as height of dam, storage capacity, face between storage capacity, dam of having deposited are built in design
Product, coordinate, upstream and downstream topological relation between silt arrester；
Upstream and downstream topological relation data between the silt arrester that step 2, basis are collected into, are established on silt arrester by computer
The discrimination standard of topological relation discriminant function between downstream, the discriminant function is:
The multiple silt arrester B being distributed on the same tributary in basin, if runoff imports mutually same seat silt arrester A's after dam break
Storage capacity, then this silt arrester A is the father dam of remaining silt arrester B, remaining silt arrester B is known as sub- dam, and sub- dam natural number is compiled at random
Number, father dam number is that sub- dam natural number random number maximum number adds one, according to the principle watershed from minimum level-one tributary
It is numbered step by step to mainstream silt arrester:
Step 3, the dam height of silt dam according to being collected into, storage capacity data, establish the height of dam-of every silt arrester in a computer
Storage-capacity curve function finds maximum field single storm according to the rainfall event data being collected into；
Dam height of silt dam-storage-capacity curve function selects linear function, exponential function or multinomial according to data and concrete condition
Formula function, function expression are as follows:
V=aH+b
V=aeH+b
V=aH2+bH+c
Wherein, V is storage capacity, and unit is m3；H is height of dam, and unit is m；A, b, c are dimensionless group, pass through measured value rate
It is fixed.
Step 4, according to Method of Stochastic, a rainfall is drawn up by computer mould；
Stochastic simulation rainfall uses multiplicative congruential method, and multiplicative congruential method is one of the important method for generating random number, function table
It is as follows up to formula:
xi=mod (λ xi-1,M)
(i=1,2 ...)
Wherein, multiplier λ, mould M and initial value x0For selected constant；Mod () is remainder function, mod (λ xi-1, M) and it means
λ x is removed with Mi-1The remainder obtained afterwards is xi；uiFor the uniform random number on [0,1] section, uiIt then can be with multiplied by a sampling factor
Obtain the uniform random number in some section.
Step 5, on the basis of step 3 and step 4, according to area between the Dam being collected into, calculate and drop between dam
The run-off height of dam corresponding with the run-off that rain generates, and establish silt arrester (unrestrained top) dam break discriminant function；
The calculation method of run-off is rainfall multiplied by area between dam, multiplied by runoff coefficient, it may be assumed that
W=α * P*S
In formula, W is run-off, and unit is m3；α is runoff coefficient；P is rainfall, and unit is mm；S area between dam, it is single
Position is m2；
Silt arrester dam break discriminant function is to bring run-off between dam in height of dam-storage-capacity curve function into calculate water level height,
If water level height is more than height of dam, then it is assumed that silt arrester (unrestrained top) dam break, it may be assumed that
Kui=1；(h>bg)
Kui=0；(h≤bg)
In formula, kui is dam break as a result, 1 is dam break, and 0 is non-dam break；H is water level, and unit is m；Bg is height of dam, and unit is
m。
Step 6 establishes basin warping dam system chain dam break model on the basis of step 5, is simulated, calculates alluvial plain
The dam break critical excitation approaches on the dam dam Xi Meizuo and dam break sequence；
Step 7 calculates warping dam system failure risk probability, all silts in basin according to the silt arrester storage capacity that step 1 is collected into
The sum of ground dam storage capacity is defined as warping dam system storage capacity, and every silt arrester storage capacity and warping dam system storage capacity ratio are defined as warping dam system
Failure risk probability；
Warping dam system failure risk probability expression are as follows:
P(x≤xi)=P (x=x1)+P (x=x2)+...+P (x=xi), i=1,2 ..., m
Wherein, i is the sequence of rainfall in dam break Critical Rainfall table, and j is the number of silt arrester in warping dam system, and n is to become silted up
Ground dam number；M is dam break Critical Rainfall number；X is the storage capacity of every silt arrester, and unit is m3；P (x=xi) it is i-th of dam break
The corresponding warping dam system failure risk probability of Critical Rainfall；P (x≤xi) it is the corresponding warping dam system of i-th of dam break Critical Rainfall
Cumulative failure risk probability；
Step 8 calculates silt corresponding to dam break Critical Rainfall according to Probability Principles according to step 3, step 6, step 7
Ground dam system failure risk probability and warping dam system cumulative failure risk probability, in conjunction with basin concrete condition, according to cumulative failure wind
Risk is divided into three classes by dangerous probability size, low-risk area, moderate risk area, high risk area is divided, according to maximum field single storm
The basin warping dam system failure risk grade is evaluated,
The method of risk stratification evaluation is, according to the basin warping dam system cumulative failure risk probability being calculated and dam break
Critical excitation approaches draw rainfall-dam system cumulative failure risk probability figure, and dam system cumulative failure risk is found in the probability graph
Dam break critical excitation approaches are divided by probability with rainfall increase increased first rainfall magnitude and the last one rainfall magnitude suddenly
Three sections, the corresponding probability interval of first segment rainfall is low-risk area, and the corresponding probability interval of second segment rainfall is moderate wind
Danger zone, the corresponding probability interval of third section rainfall are high risk area.
Embodiment:
By taking the evaluation of northern Shensi Wangmaogou watershed warping dam system failure risk as an example, it is specifically implemented according to the following steps:
Step 1 collects basic data: including the on-site investigation data of backbone dam silt arrester 2012 of Wangmaogou watershed 17 and
Design data (height of dam, storage capacity, the area between storage capacity, dam that deposited, coordinate, upstream and downstream topological relation between silt arrester) and king
1980~2000 years rainfall event datas of luxuriant Watershed；
Upstream and downstream topological relation data between 17 backbone dam silt arresters of Wangmaogou watershed that step 2, basis are collected into, lead to
It crosses R Programming with Pascal Language and realizes the topological relation discriminant function between the alluvial plain above and below the dam that computer establishes Wangmaogou watershed；
Wangmaogou watershed 17 backbone dam dam height of silt dam, storage capacity data that step 3, basis are collected into, are compiled by R language
Cheng Shixian establishes the linear height of dam-storage-capacity curve function of every silt arrester in a computer, according to the rainfall event data being collected into,
Find maximum field single storm；
Step 4 simulates a rainfall according to Method of Stochastic by R language random generator；
Step 5, on the basis of step 3, step 4, according to 17 backbone dam Dams of the Wangmaogou watershed being collected into
Between area, the run-off height of dam corresponding with the run-off that rainfall generates between dam is calculated by R Programming with Pascal Language, and establish alluvial plain
The unrestrained top dam break discriminant function in dam；
Step 6 by R Programming with Pascal Language establishes the chain dam break model of basin warping dam system on the basis of step 5, carries out mould
It is quasi-, the dam break critical excitation approaches and dam break sequence on every dam of warping dam system are calculated, and result is exported in a manner of txt file,
As shown in Figure 1, the dam break sequence on every dam in figure as numbered in Wangmaogou watershed warping dam system.
Step 7 passes through R Programming with Pascal Language meter according to 17 backbone dam silt arrester storage capacity of Wangmaogou watershed that step 1 is collected into
Warping dam system failure risk probability is calculated,
The sum of all silt arrester storage capacity in basin are defined as warping dam system storage capacity, every silt arrester storage capacity and warping dam system storage capacity
Ratio is defined as warping dam system failure risk probability.
Step 8, according to step 3, step 6, step 7, according to Probability Principles, it is critical that dam break is calculated by R Programming with Pascal Language
Warping dam system failure risk probability corresponding to rainfall and warping dam system cumulative failure risk probability, and classification is carried out to risk and is commented
Valence divides low-risk area, moderate risk area, high risk area, evaluates basin warping dam system failure according to maximum field single storm
Risk class, as shown in Fig. 2, 1980~2000 years maximum field single storms of Wangmaogou watershed are less than 471mm, warping dam system failure
Risk is in low-risk area.
Claims (6)
1. warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under a kind of catchment of basin time, which is characterized in that specifically according to following step
It is rapid to implement:
Step 1 determines research basin, collects silt arrester data and rainfall event data；
Upstream and downstream topological relation data between the silt arrester that step 2, basis are collected into, establish alluvial plain above and below the dam by computer
Between topological relation discriminant function, the discrimination standard of the discriminant function is:
The multiple silt arrester B being distributed on the same tributary in basin, if runoff imports the library of mutually same seat silt arrester A after dam break
Holding, then this silt arrester A is the father dam of remaining silt arrester B, remaining silt arrester B is known as sub- dam, sub- dam natural number random number,
Father dam number is that sub- dam natural number random number maximum number adds one, is flowed to according to the principle watershed from minimum level-one branch dry
Stream silt arrester is numbered step by step:
Step 3, according to dam height of silt dam, storage capacity data, establish the height of dam-storage-capacity curve letter of every silt arrester in a computer
Number, according to the rainfall event data being collected into, finds maximum field single storm；
Step 4, according to Method of Stochastic, a rainfall is drawn up by computer mould；
Step 5, according to area between the Dam that is collected into, it is corresponding with the run-off to calculate the run-off that rainfall between dam generates
Height of dam, and establish silt arrester dam break discriminant function；
Step 6 establishes the chain dam break model of basin warping dam system, is simulated, the dam break for calculating every dam of warping dam system is faced
Boundary's rainfall and dam break sequence；
Step 7 calculates warping dam system failure risk probability according to silt arrester storage capacity, and the sum of all silt arrester storage capacity in basin are defined as
Warping dam system storage capacity, every silt arrester storage capacity and warping dam system storage capacity ratio are defined as warping dam system failure risk probability；
Step 8, according to step 3, step 6, step 7, calculate warping dam system failure risk probability corresponding to dam break Critical Rainfall
And warping dam system cumulative failure risk probability divides risk according to cumulative failure risk probability size in conjunction with basin concrete condition
For three classes, low-risk area, moderate risk area, high risk area are divided, which is evaluated according to maximum field single storm
Failure risk grade.
2. warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under the catchment of basin according to claim 1 time, which is characterized in that
In the step 3, dam height of silt dam-storage-capacity curve function selects linear function, exponential function according to data and concrete condition
Or polynomial function, function expression are as follows:
V=aH+b
V=aeH+b
V=aH2+bH+c
Wherein, V is storage capacity, and unit is m3；H is height of dam, and unit is m；A, b, c are dimensionless group, pass through measured value calibration.
3. warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under the catchment of basin according to claim 2 time, which is characterized in that
In the step 4, stochastic simulation rainfall uses multiplicative congruential method, and multiplicative congruential method is one of the important method for generating random number,
Function expression is as follows:
xi=mod (λ xi-1, M)
(i=1,2 ...)
Wherein, multiplier λ, mould M and initial value x0For selected constant；Mod () is remainder function, mod (λ xi-1, M) and it means and is removed with M
λxi-1The remainder obtained afterwards is xi；uiFor the uniform random number on [0,1] section, uiIt is then available multiplied by a sampling factor
The uniform random number in some section.
4. warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under the catchment of basin according to claim 3 time, which is characterized in that
In the step 5, the calculation method of run-off is rainfall multiplied by area between dam, multiplied by runoff coefficient, it may be assumed that W=α * P*S
In formula, W is run-off, and unit is m3；α is runoff coefficient；P is rainfall, and unit is mm；S area between dam, unit are
m2；
Silt arrester dam break discriminant function is to bring run-off between dam in height of dam-storage-capacity curve function into calculate water level height, if water
High position is more than height of dam, then it is assumed that silt arrester dam break, it may be assumed that
Kui=1；(h>bg)
Kui=0；(h≤bg)
In formula, kui is dam break as a result, 1 is dam break, and 0 is non-dam break；H is water level, and unit is m；Bg is height of dam, and unit is m.
5. warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under the catchment of basin according to claim 4 time, which is characterized in that
In the step 7, warping dam system failure risk probability expression are as follows:
P(x≤xi)=P (x=x1)+P (x=x2)+...+P (x=xi), i=1,2 ..., m
Wherein, i is the sequence of rainfall in dam break Critical Rainfall table, and j is the number of silt arrester in warping dam system, and n is silt arrester
Number；M is dam break Critical Rainfall number；X is the storage capacity of every silt arrester, and unit is m3；P (x=xi) it is that i-th of dam break is critical
The corresponding warping dam system failure risk probability of rainfall；P (x≤xi) it is the corresponding warping dam system accumulation of i-th of dam break Critical Rainfall
Failure risk probability.
6. warping dam system failure risk evaluation method under the catchment of basin according to claim 5 time, which is characterized in that
In the step 8, the method for risk stratification evaluation is, according to the basin warping dam system cumulative failure risk probability being calculated
Rainfall-dam system cumulative failure risk probability figure is drawn with dam break critical excitation approaches, the accumulation of dam system is found in the probability graph and is lost
Risk probability is imitated with rainfall increase increased first rainfall magnitude and the last one rainfall magnitude suddenly, by the critical rainfall of dam break
Amount is divided into three sections, and the corresponding probability interval of first segment rainfall is low-risk area, and the corresponding probability interval of second segment rainfall is
Moderate risk area, the corresponding probability interval of third section rainfall are high risk area.
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| CN117313872A (en) * | 2023-09-28 | 2023-12-29 | 水利部交通运输部国家能源局南京水利科学研究院 | Method for analyzing earth-rock dam break risk Bayesian model based on word frequency statistics |
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