CN108681848A - One kind " Trinity " small reservoir or silt arrester flood season method for early warning - Google Patents
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Abstract
The invention discloses a kind of " Trinity " small reservoir or silt arrester flood season method for early warning, wherein three include weather forecast layer, water level early warning layer and flood control layer.Specific implementation includes：, can be according to reservoir periphery history rainfall data in weather forecast layer, rainfall p under look-ahead difference repetition period of rainfall can predict rainfall p according to center or local weather station large scale, may be based on selected precipitation station and obtain real-time rainfall p；In water level early warning layer, according to rainfall p and rainfall runoff formula, upstream water level h, or monitoring upstream water level h in real time are predicted, then carry out three-level water level early warning；In flood control layer, according to three-level warning information, issue corresponding flood control measure, by early warning and information of speedily carrying out rescue work simultaneously automatic push to relevant unit or individual.The present invention considers the forecast of three kinds of rainfalls, three kinds of water level early warning, three kinds of flood control measures, construct a whole set of multi-angle, multi-level, more measure integrated method for early warning, can solve the problems, such as in small watershed safe flood in small reservoir or silt arrester.
Description
Technical field
The present invention relates to Water Resources Domains, in terms of small reservoir and silt arrester Flood Pre-warning System.
Background technology
The reservoir that small reservoir refers to storage capacity between the ten thousand stere of 10 ten thousand steres~1000, wherein storage capacity is 1,000,000
Cubic meter~1000 ten thousand stere be small（1）Type reservoir, storage capacity are small in the ten thousand stere of 10 ten thousand steres~100（2）Type
Reservoir.
Silt arrester refers in the raceway grooves at different levels of erosion area, and the dam work built for the purpose of blocking mud alluvial plain is built
Object, main purpose are flood detention, block mud, and alluvial plain, water storage build farmland, developing agricultural production, mitigate Yellow River mud.
According to《National water conservancy generally investigates bulletin for the first time》Data, 98002, all kinds of reservoirs that the whole nation is built up, medium and small reservoirs
93308, account for reservoir sum 95.2%, it is small in small reservoir（1）Type and small（2）Type ratio is 1:4.2.Wherein 1954~2006
During year in all kinds of dam break reservoirs in the whole nation, small reservoir accounts for 96.4%, and dam break reason mainly has the unrestrained top of flood（Account for 51.1%）,
Construction quality is poor（Account for 32.0%）, operational management is improper（Account for 10.6%）Deng.
The Flood Pre-warning System of small reservoir and silt arrester in urgent need to be improved acts on, and increases leading time, takes corresponding flood control in advance
Measure reduces the loss of downstream personnel and economy.
Traditional flood control measure, including engineering measure and non-engineering measure, but small reservoir and silt arrester quantity are more, are distributed
Extensively, it is located in remote, it is difficult to form perfect flood-prevention project system, the non-engineering measures such as such flood forecasting, early warning are to miniature water
Library is just particularly important with silt arrester flood control.Flood Forecasting Model has very much, such as Xinanjiang model, hydrological distribution model,
Other empirical models etc., these are applied to the abundant large and medium-sized basin forecast of hydrological data more, and forecast is more complex.And small reservoir
Since storage capacity is small, the concentration time is short, water level goes up fast, when very heavy rains, easily occurs unrestrained top and dam break, especially by silt arrester
The small reservoir of reconstruction, siltation volume is larger, storage capacity smaller, it is therefore necessary to increase flood leading time to greatest extent, adopt in advance
Measure is taken to reduce or delay loss of the dam break to downstream personnel and property.
Patent " Small Reservoir intelligence four-quadrant tune flood method "（Application number 201610021720.5）Disclose a kind of reservoir
Reservoir inflow forecasts the simple and easy method with flood routing, can shorten the formulation time for adjusting big vast scheme, effectively improve middle-size and small-size water
The timeliness of library forecast, plays the role of Flood Pre-warning System.But more rich history rainfall data is needed, for drawing the water in advance
The big vast relation curve of rainfall runoff relation curve, flood peak relation curve, tune, a magnanimity and swell-warehouse are held under the difference working condition of library
With reservoir maximum water-storage relation curve, and general small reservoir, especially silt arrester historical summary are extremely deficient, while this is specially
Profit does not propose a variety of alarm modes, and lacks the flood control measure under different warning levels.
Invention content
The object of the present invention is to provide a whole set of for small reservoir or the Flood Pre-warning System technical method of silt arrester, to subtract
Few dam break risk delays the dam break time, to increase leading time to greatest extent, to implement flood control measure and withdrawing lower visitor
Member strives for the longer time.
What the present invention introduced is a kind of " Trinity "（Weather forecast-water level early warning-flood control）Small reservoir or
Silt arrester flood season method for early warning is shown in that Fig. 1, main technical schemes are as follows.
1. first choosing from weather station or precipitation station within the scope of reservoir 15km, the weather station or precipitation station are located on dam as possible
Swim in catchment area, and can have the triangle that three stations are built by reservoir include wherein, but it is less for weather station or precipitation station
Area, optional 1~2 weather station or precipitation station.
2. obtaining the history rainfall data of selected weather station or precipitation station, analyzes each station and survey average annual flood season（June-September）
Maximum rainfall and 24 hourly rainfall depths over the years maximum, with carry out Flood Season of Reservoir it is long when early warning and nowcasting warning.
3. it is warning index to choose upstream water level h, at the same choose the flood season limit level elevation of reservoir, spillway floor elevation,
Crest elevation is threshold value of warning, establishes three-level water level early warning.For silt arrester of the part without spillway facility, dam crest can be chosen
It is spillway floor elevation at 4.5m below elevation.It, can be for small reservoir or silt arrester without any water level monitoring equipment
Simple water gauge is set up before dam or marks elevation with waterproof paint or colour bar cloth on slope meeting water.
4. in step A or step B or step C, rainfall p prediction upstream water level h will be utilized, concrete operations are such as
Under：Utilize formula（1）Two Phase flow amount w is calculated, formula is recycled（2）Calculate initial storage, finally utilize formula（3）
Calculate upstream water level h.
Formula（1）：, in formula：W is run-off（m3）；P is rainfall（mm）；A is stream
Domain control area（m2）,For certain type runoff coefficient；For the type in basin occupied area ratio.
Formula（2）：, in formula： h0For initial upstream water level（m）,For initial storage（m3）.
Formula（3）；), in formula：H is forecast upstream water level（m）.
Wherein formula（2）And formula（3）It being obtained by storage capacity scatter plot is fitted, fitting formula is proposed with multinomial, and
Coefficient R2≥0.95。
5. in step, history rainfall data can be based on to the upstream water level under look-ahead difference rainfall intensity
In 24 hourly rainfall depths over the years maximum, draw the rain frequency curve of level of significance α=0.05, reappeared so as to find out different rainfalls
The rainfall p of phase draws the upstream water level h under different rainfall intensities in advance as the Design of Reservoirs storm rainfall.
6. in step, to advanced（Before flood season arrives）It predicts the reservoir upstream water level, grey-week can be based on
Phase extension prediction model（Reference papers：Lv Ping is based on the Annual Precipitation Forecasting of grey-periodic extensional prediction, Jilin water conservancy
2013.01）And history average annual flood season（June-September）Maximum rainfall predicts rainfall p in the flood season in year, as the water
Library flood season small scale Forecast of Heavy Rain amount, to advanced prediction upstream water level h.
7. in stepb, the damsite area based on the publication of central or local weather station 1-7 days（When even longer
Between）Rainfall p or rainfall grade forecast rainfall, to predict upstream water level h as the reservoir large scale.
8. 24 hourly rainfall depth, seven grades that in stepb, can be divided according to meteorological department：It is micro（＜ 0.1mm）, it is small
Rain（0.1~9.9mm）, moderate rain（10.0~24.9mm）, heavy rain（25.0~49.9mm）, heavy rain（50.0~99.9mm）, it is big sudden and violent
Rain（100.0~249.9mm）, extra torrential rain（＞ 250.0mm）, in conjunction with the rainfall frequency curve drawn in step A, inquiry is not
Repetition period of rainfall range under ad eundem corresponding to rainfall, so as to the prediction upstream water level h of large scale.
9. in step C, the real-time rainfall p based on the precipitation station chosen predicts upstream water level h in real time.
10. when upstream water level h equals or exceeds flood season limit level elevation（Step F）, issue III grade of blue early warning；As dam Qian Shui
Position h equals or exceeds spillway floor elevation（Step H）, issue II grade of yellow early warning；When upstream water level h equals or exceeds dam crest
Elevation（Step G）, issue I grade of red early warning.Wherein upstream water level h including the use of prediction of precipitation upstream water level h（Step M）
Or the water level h that automatic gauge monitors before dam（Step D）Or utilize virtual electronic water gauge monitoring water level h（Step E）.
11. when issuing III grade of blue pre-warning signal, reservoir drainage lying pipe is opened（Bottom outlet）Draining, for no horizontal-tube of water drainage
（Bottom outlet）Or horizontal-tube of water drainage（Bottom outlet）When displacement is smaller, it may span across dam crest or build one or more groups of internal diameters in spillway and be
The unpowered siphon drainage pipeline of 300mm, which can be selected rubber bellows, light-weight, cheap, carries and installs
It is convenient and efficient, it is conducive to urgent flood control, also recyclable recycling later of speedily carrying out rescue work.
12. when issuing II grade of yellow pre-warning signal, drained off floodwaters using spillway overflow, for there is the spillway of gate, and
When starting gate is increased by upstream water level and observes the frequency to 15 minutes/time, and is started for silt arrester of the part without spillway
Prepare the associated materials for being laid with the interim flood discharging groove of dam facing.
13. when issuing I grade of red early warning signal, the interim flood discharging groove of dam facing, flood discharging groove paving are built in dam body downstream slope
If width 5m, flood discharge mortise both sides use sandbag cofferdam, bottom to use erosion control material.
14. in step J and step K, different grades of warning information and corresponding counter-measure of speedily carrying out rescue work are passed through into radio station
Or wechat or QQ or short message, it is automatic to push to relevant unit or individual simultaneously.
Description of the drawings
Fig. 1 is the small reservoir or silt arrester flood season early warning technology conceptual scheme of " Trinity ".
A, B, C, D, E, F, G, H, J, K, L, M are the committed step of the technical solution in Fig. 1.
In Fig. 1（1）、（2）、（3）For crucial calculation formula.
Specific implementation mode
The present invention General Implementing thinking be：Weather forecast layer rainfall p is first obtained, then is inquired into water level early warning layer before dam
Water level h carries out water level early warning, finally in flood control layer, issues different stage early warning according to corresponding warning information and implements to control flood
Emergency measure, specific implementation process are as follows.
In weather forecast layer, rainfall p can get using step A or step B or step C.Wherein step A is to be based on history
Rainfall data calculates the rainfall under different storm recurrence periods, or with calculating the reservoir using grey-period epitaxial prediction model
Rainfall under the conditions of the small scale in area.Step B is large scale forecast rainfall or rainfall grade based on center or local weather station.
Step C is real-time rainfall.
In water level early warning layer, based on the rainfall p predicted under different working conditions, by formula（1）（2）（3）It calculates
Upstream water level h can be predicted at step M, simultaneously for the reservoir for having water level monitoring equipment, can also use step D and step E
Monitoring upstream water level in real time carries out three-level water level early warning at step L.
In flood control layer, according to the three-level water level early warning situation of last layer, step F or step G or step are carried out respectively
H and corresponding flood control measure, then into cross step J to step K warning information is sent to flood control information it is related
Unit or individual.
Claims (10)
1. a kind of " Trinity " small reservoir or silt arrester flood season method for early warning, which is characterized in that this method includes meteorological pre-
Three levels such as layer, water level early warning layer, flood control layer are reported, and flood season implementation steps are from weather forecast layer to water level early warning layer
Flood control layer is arrived again.
2. weather forecast layer according to claim 1, which is characterized in that first choose from weather station within the scope of reservoir 15km or
Precipitation station, the weather station or precipitation station are located in the catchment area of dam upstream, can have the triangle that three stations are built will be reservoir watershed
Including wherein, and for the less area in weather station or precipitation station, optional 1~2 weather station or precipitation station.
3. weather forecast layer according to claim 1, which is characterized in that include three kinds of rainfalls, one is based on history
The different frequency rainfall of rainfall data forecasts that one is based on the rainfall forecast in 1-7 days of center or local weather station or rainfall
Graded forecast, one is the real-time rainfall monitorings based on selected precipitation station.
4. according to claim 3 be based on history rainfall data different frequency rainfall forecast, which is characterized in that based on over the years
Maximum 24 hourly rainfall depths draw the rain frequency curve of level of significance α=0.05, to inquire the rainfall of different repetition period of rainfall
Amount, and carry out the reservoir or the small scale short-period forecast rainfall of silt arrester using grey-period epitaxial prediction model.
5. according to claim 3 based on center or local weather station rainfall graded forecast, which is characterized in that according to meteorology
24 hourly rainfall depth, seven grades that department divides：It is micro（＜ 0.1mm）, light rain（0.1~9.9mm）, moderate rain（10.0~
24.9mm）, heavy rain（25.0~49.9mm）, heavy rain（50.0~99.9mm）, torrential rain（100.0~249.9mm）, extra torrential rain
（＞ 250.0mm）, in conjunction with the rainfall frequency curve mentioned in right 4, inquire the rainfall corresponding to rainfall under different brackets
Return period range, so as to the prediction upstream water level of large scale.
6. water level early warning layer according to claim 1, which is characterized in that predict upstream water level using rainfall p, it is specific
Step includes：Utilize formula（1）Two Phase flow amount w is calculated, formula is recycled（2）Calculate initial storage, finally utilize public affairs
Formula（3）Calculate upstream water level h;
Formula（1）：, in formula：W is run-off（m3）；P is rainfall（mm）；A is watershed control
Area（m2）,For certain type runoff coefficient；For the type in basin occupied area ratio；
Formula（2）：, in formula：h0For initial upstream water level（m）,For initial storage（m3）;
Formula（3）；), in formula：H is forecast upstream water level（m）;
Wherein formula（2）And formula（3）It is obtained by storage capacity scatter plot is fitted, fitting formula is proposed with multinomial, and related
Coefficients R2≥0.95。
7. water level early warning layer according to claim 1, which is characterized in that three kinds of upstream water level method of real-time, it is a kind of
Simple water gauge is set up before dam or is met water in dam body marks elevation with waterproof paint or colour bar cloth on slope, Field Force reads,
One is water level is monitored automatically using automatic gauge before dam, one is monitor water level based on video structure electric water gauge.
8. water level early warning layer according to claim 1, which is characterized in that structure is with flood season limit level elevation, spillway bottom plate
Elevation, the three-level water level modes of warning that crest elevation is threshold value of warning.
9. flood control layer according to claim 1, which is characterized in that when forecast level or in real time monitoring water level be equal to or
When more than flood season limit level elevation, III grade of blue early warning is issued, while taking unlatching horizontal-tube of water drainage（Bottom outlet）Or one group or more of installation
The unpowered siphon drainage pipe of group, when forecast level or when monitoring water level is equal to or more than spillway floor elevation in real time, publication II
Grade yellow early warning, while spillway overflow being taken to drain off floodwaters, it when forecast level or monitors water level in real time and is equal to or more than crest elevation
When, I grade of red early warning is issued, while building interim dam facing flood discharging groove.
10. flood control layer according to claim 1, which is characterized in that speedily carry out rescue work three-level water level warning information and accordingly
Action Message is sent to relevant unit or individual simultaneously automatically by radio station, wechat, QQ, short message.
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