The British Conservative Party since 1997 appeared to support the view that parties react to defe... more The British Conservative Party since 1997 appeared to support the view that parties react to defeat by energizing their core vote base. Using a series of spatial and salience-based definitions of the core vote, combined with elite interviews with William Hague, Iain Duncan-Smith, and Michael Howard, the three Conservative leaders between 1997 and 2005, this paper evaluates empirical evidence in support – and in refutation – of the core vote critique. The analyses suggest that Conservative issue strategies between 1997 and 2005 were chosen for spatial proximity and public perceptions of issue ownership, and that an appeal to Conservative voters was consistent with a broader appeal. The implications are important for conceptualizing and applying party base explanations in Britain, and beyond.
Information about high turnout levels can increase voter turnout via a process of adherence to so... more Information about high turnout levels can increase voter turnout via a process of adherence to social norms. Research also shows that high turnout information has a greater effect among infrequent voters. Many important questions remain, however, with important policy and theoretical implications. This study parses out the effects of information about turnout using a survey experiment fielded in the 2010 British Election Study. A nuanced interpretation is supported. The effect of turnout and abstention information is conditional upon the salience of the election campaign. Turnout information should be national for greatest effect, but abstention information should be local. Effects are also varied among infrequent and frequent voters, but abstention information is particularly relevant to infrequency. A series of explanations are offered, and the implications considered for turnout appeals and for theoretical development of the effects of social norms.
Under David Cameron the Conservative party recovered sufficiently to deliver a Conservative Prime... more Under David Cameron the Conservative party recovered sufficiently to deliver a Conservative Prime Minister to Number 10. Cameron achieved what three leaders before him did not: a consistent poll lead over Labour and he broadened the Conservative message. However, this chapter highlights two major limitations to the Conservative ‘recovery’; (i) the size of the Conservative base has not enlarged: roughly the same proportion of people identify with the Conservatives as did so in 1997, and voter’s feelings towards the Conservative party had seen just a small improvement; and (ii) although many evaluations of Conservative competence were less negative by 2010, the ratings were not yet clearly positive. The Conservative lead entering the election was narrow on many key criteria, and the campaign failed to change this position. Furthermore, while recognising Cameron’s achievements, this chapter suggests that Conservative ratings became positive in 2008, as the financial crisis occurred, and narrowed as Britain emerged from recession. While much can be attributed to the selection of a new leader, the Conservative ‘recovery’ was due to the broader political context, and it was also a partial recovery, at best.
In contrast to the growing elite policy polarization in the United States, the British Labour and... more In contrast to the growing elite policy polarization in the United States, the British Labour and Conservative parties have converged dramatically on economic and social welfare policy over the past two decades. We ask the question: Has there been a parallel depolarization in the British mass public’s policy attitudes and partisan loyalties, pointing to a general mechanism which ex-tends beyond the U.S. case? We report analyses of election survey data from 1987-2001 that document significant declines in the association between British citizens’ policy positions and their partisanship (partisan sorting). However, we find only modest changes in the dispersion of British respondents’ self-placements on the policy scales (policy extremity), and in mass attitude constraint, defined as the correlations between citizens’ positions across different policy issues. These trends in the British public’s policy preferences and partisan loyalties are mirror images of the trends in the American public’s policy preferences and mass partisanship.
The British Conservative Party since 1997 appeared to support the view that parties react to defe... more The British Conservative Party since 1997 appeared to support the view that parties react to defeat by energizing their core vote base. Using a series of spatial and salience-based definitions of the core vote, combined with elite interviews with William Hague, Iain Duncan-Smith, and Michael Howard, the three Conservative leaders between 1997 and 2005, this paper evaluates empirical evidence in support – and in refutation – of the core vote critique. The analyses suggest that Conservative issue strategies between 1997 and 2005 were chosen for spatial proximity and public perceptions of issue ownership, and that an appeal to Conservative voters was consistent with a broader appeal. The implications are important for conceptualizing and applying party base explanations in Britain, and beyond.
Information about high turnout levels can increase voter turnout via a process of adherence to so... more Information about high turnout levels can increase voter turnout via a process of adherence to social norms. Research also shows that high turnout information has a greater effect among infrequent voters. Many important questions remain, however, with important policy and theoretical implications. This study parses out the effects of information about turnout using a survey experiment fielded in the 2010 British Election Study. A nuanced interpretation is supported. The effect of turnout and abstention information is conditional upon the salience of the election campaign. Turnout information should be national for greatest effect, but abstention information should be local. Effects are also varied among infrequent and frequent voters, but abstention information is particularly relevant to infrequency. A series of explanations are offered, and the implications considered for turnout appeals and for theoretical development of the effects of social norms.
Under David Cameron the Conservative party recovered sufficiently to deliver a Conservative Prime... more Under David Cameron the Conservative party recovered sufficiently to deliver a Conservative Prime Minister to Number 10. Cameron achieved what three leaders before him did not: a consistent poll lead over Labour and he broadened the Conservative message. However, this chapter highlights two major limitations to the Conservative ‘recovery’; (i) the size of the Conservative base has not enlarged: roughly the same proportion of people identify with the Conservatives as did so in 1997, and voter’s feelings towards the Conservative party had seen just a small improvement; and (ii) although many evaluations of Conservative competence were less negative by 2010, the ratings were not yet clearly positive. The Conservative lead entering the election was narrow on many key criteria, and the campaign failed to change this position. Furthermore, while recognising Cameron’s achievements, this chapter suggests that Conservative ratings became positive in 2008, as the financial crisis occurred, and narrowed as Britain emerged from recession. While much can be attributed to the selection of a new leader, the Conservative ‘recovery’ was due to the broader political context, and it was also a partial recovery, at best.
In contrast to the growing elite policy polarization in the United States, the British Labour and... more In contrast to the growing elite policy polarization in the United States, the British Labour and Conservative parties have converged dramatically on economic and social welfare policy over the past two decades. We ask the question: Has there been a parallel depolarization in the British mass public’s policy attitudes and partisan loyalties, pointing to a general mechanism which ex-tends beyond the U.S. case? We report analyses of election survey data from 1987-2001 that document significant declines in the association between British citizens’ policy positions and their partisanship (partisan sorting). However, we find only modest changes in the dispersion of British respondents’ self-placements on the policy scales (policy extremity), and in mass attitude constraint, defined as the correlations between citizens’ positions across different policy issues. These trends in the British public’s policy preferences and partisan loyalties are mirror images of the trends in the American public’s policy preferences and mass partisanship.
This release note describes the British Election Study Internet Panel Survey dataset. The data ca... more This release note describes the British Election Study Internet Panel Survey dataset. The data can be cited using DOI: 10.13140/RG.2.1.3625.1604 and can be downloaded from http://www.britishelectionstudy.com/data-objects/panel-study-data/
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Papers by Jane Green