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Polarization and the Middle Class in China: a Non-Parametric Evaluation Using CHNS and CHIP Data

Author

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  • Khan, Haider Ali
  • Schettino, Francesco
  • Gabriele, Alberto
Abstract
The record economic growth of PRC since the 1990s has been accompanied by an increase in both income inequalities and polarization. We employ Relative Distribution tools (Handcock and Morris, 1998) on different datasets in order to provide a detailed analysis of Chinese income distribution during the last decade. The main result shows a hollowing out of the mid-range deciles with a corresponding fattening of the highest ones. Thus the analysis confirms the hollowing out---or perhaps even a prevention of the rise---of the middle class in PRC. Analyzing further the “pure distribution” effect (i.e., depurated by the growth one), we find that this typical polarization profile emerged mainly in the last decade. This findings can be explained by noting that the (negative) “pure distributional” effect has been, to some extent, mitigated by the impressive GDP growth. In other words, the growth effect considered without noticing the changes in the shape of distribution effect---i.e.---the shape effect--- hides distributive changes that materially occurred in the 1990s and in the 21st century so far. We need to take both growth effects and shape effects over time into consideration for a proper political economic assessment of Chinese economic performance. As growth slows, unless countervailing policies are undertaken, polarization will reveal itself more sharply. Given the existing inequalities, increasing polarization would seem to imply that distributional and related conflicts are likely in PRC. Policies to counteract these tendencies must be anti-polarization policies along with those of relatively more egalitarian growth.

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  • Khan, Haider Ali & Schettino, Francesco & Gabriele, Alberto, 2017. "Polarization and the Middle Class in China: a Non-Parametric Evaluation Using CHNS and CHIP Data," MPRA Paper 86133, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:86133
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    Cited by:

    1. Ravallion, Martin & Chen, Shaohua, 2022. "Fleshing out the olive? Observations on income polarization in China since 1981," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    2. Zhang, Chen & Yu, Yangcheng & Li, Qinghai, 2023. "Top incomes and income polarisation in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    3. Xuan Chen & Guoping Li, 2023. "Middle Class Vulnerability in China: Measurement and Determinants," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(8), pages 1-16, April.
    4. Bortolotti, Luca & Biggeri, Mario, 2022. "Is the slowdown of China's economic growth affecting multidimensional well-being dynamics?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 478-489.
    5. Fleisher, Belton & McGuire, William & Su, Yaqin & Zhao, Min Qiang, 2018. "Innovation, Wages, and Polarization in China," MPRA Paper 87105, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Khan, Haider & Schettino, Francesco, 2018. "Income Polarization in the USA (1983-2016): what happened to the middle class?," MPRA Paper 85554, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Domenico Suppa, 2023. "Note bibliografiche: Schettino F. e Clementi F. (2022), Crisi, disuguaglianze e poverta'. Le iniquita' del capitalismo, da Lehman Brothers alla Covid-19, II edizione aggiornata, Napoli: La Citta' del ," Moneta e Credito, Economia civile, vol. 76(301), pages 107-110.
    8. Vide Romana Korez & Zavrl Irena & Hunjet Anica, 2021. "Exploring Emerging Markets’ Demographic and Macroeconomic Dynamics and the Middle Class Growth: The Case of China and India," Naše gospodarstvo/Our economy, Sciendo, vol. 67(4), pages 33-55, December.
    9. Schettino, Francesco & Khan, Haider A., 2020. "Income polarization in the USA: What happened to the middle class in the last few decades?," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 149-161.
    10. Chiara Assunta Ricci & Sergio Scicchitano, 2021. "Decomposing changes in income polarization by population group: what happened during the crisis?," Economia Politica: Journal of Analytical and Institutional Economics, Springer;Fondazione Edison, vol. 38(1), pages 235-259, April.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Polarization; Political Economy of PRC; Relative Distribution Tools; Middle Class; Inequalities; Growth Effect; Distribution Effect;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I3 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration
    • P3 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions
    • P35 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Public Finance
    • P36 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Socialist Institutions and Their Transitions - - - Consumer Economics; Health; Education and Training; Welfare, Income, Wealth, and Poverty

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