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On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism

Author

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  • Paul Beaudry
  • Tim Willems
Abstract
Is over-optimism about a country's future growth perspective good for an economy, or does over-optimism also come with costs? In this paper we document that recessions, fiscal problems, as well as Balance of Payment-difficulties are more likely to arise in countries where past growth expectations have been overly optimistic. We arrive at this conclusion by looking at the medium-run effects of instances of over-optimism or caution in IMF forecasts. To isolate the causal effect of over-optimism we take an instrumental variables approach, where we exploit variation provided by the pseudo-random allocation of IMF Mission Chiefs across countries. As a necessary first step, we document that IMF Mission Chiefs tend to systematically differ in their individual degrees of forecast-optimism or caution. The mechanism that transforms over-optimism into a later recession seems to run through higher debt accumulation, both public and private. Our findings illustrate the potency of unjustified optimism and underline the importance of basing economic forecasts upon realistic medium-term prospects.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Beaudry & Tim Willems, 2018. "On the Macroeconomic Consequences of Over-Optimism," NBER Working Papers 24685, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24685
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    2. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2024. "Systemic bias of IMF reserve and debt forecasts for program countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(3), pages 985-1001.
    3. Yan Carrière-Swallow & José Marzluf, 2023. "Macrofinancial Causes of Optimism in Growth Forecasts," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 71(2), pages 509-537, June.
    4. Pietro Munari, 2024. "The Impact of Market Sentiment and Macroeconomic Fundamentals on Government Bond (Mis)-pricing," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 24228, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
    5. Vladimír Novák & Andrei Matveenko & Silvio Ravaioli, 2024. "The Status Quo and Belief Polarization of Inattentive Agents: Theory and Experiment," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 16(4), pages 1-39, November.
    6. Siddhartha S. Bora & Ani L. Katchova & Todd H. Kuethe, 2021. "The Rationality of USDA Forecasts under Multivariate Asymmetric Loss," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(3), pages 1006-1033, May.
    7. Mihalyi, David & Mate, Akos, 2019. "Text-mining IMF country reports - an original dataset," MPRA Paper 100656, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Eicher, Theo S. & Kawai, Reina, 2023. "IMF trade forecasts for crisis countries: Bias, inefficiency, and their origins," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1615-1639.
    9. Gatti, Roberta & Lederman, Daniel & Islam, Asif M. & Nguyen, Ha & Lotfi, Rana & Emam Mousa, Mennatallah, 2024. "Data transparency and GDP growth forecast errors," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    10. Caselli, Francesca & Reynaud, Julien, 2020. "Do fiscal rules cause better fiscal balances? A new instrumental variable strategy," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    11. Michael Atingi-Ego & Sayed Timuno & Tiviniton Makuve, 2021. "Public Debt Accumulation in SSA: A Looming Debt Crisis [‘Government Ponzi Games and the Sustainability of Public Deficits Under Uncertainty’]," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(Supplemen), pages 103-139.
    12. Ko, Eunmi, 2024. "An affine term structure model with Fed chairs’ speeches," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    13. Bas Scheer, 2022. "Addressing Unemployment Rate Forecast Errors in Relation to the Business Cycle," CPB Discussion Paper 434, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    14. Ted H. Chu & Marshall L. Stocker & Brandon J. Tan, 2021. "Economic fitness: How equity market returns reflect the realization of economic growth potential," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 1550-1562, January.
    15. Eicher, Theo S. & Rollinson, Yuan Gao, 2023. "The accuracy of IMF crises nowcasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 431-449.
    16. Giovannelli, Alessandro & Pericoli, Filippo Maria, 2020. "Are GDP forecasts optimal? Evidence on European countries," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 963-973.
    17. Klaus-Peter Hellwig, 2018. "Overfitting in Judgment-based Economic Forecasts: The Case of IMF Growth Projections," IMF Working Papers 2018/260, International Monetary Fund.
    18. Bluwstein, Kristina & Yung, Julieta, 2019. "Back to the real economy: the effects of risk perception shocks on the term premium and bank lending," Bank of England working papers 806, Bank of England.

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    JEL classification:

    • E03 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Behavioral Macroeconomics
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

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