Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/mtu/wpaper/05_11.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?

Author

Listed:
  • Mark J. Holmes

    (University of Waikato)

  • Arthur Grimes

    (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)

Abstract
This paper investigates the long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK. Using a variety of econometric methods, existing studies have failed to reach a consensus on whether or not regional house prices are cointegrated and exhibit long-run constancy relative to each other. We propose the application of a new test that combines principal components analysis with unit root testing to throw new light on the regional convergence debate. Using mix-adjusted quarterly house price data for 1973-2005, we find that existing unit root and cointegration methodologies indicate the presence of multiple stochastic trends with, at best, very weak evidence of long-run convergence. However, testing for the stationarity of the largest principal component based on regional house price differentials suggests that all UK regional house prices are driven by a single common stochastic trend and can be regarded as exhibiting strong convergence in the long-run. Further analysis suggests there is a high degree of persistence in regional house price differentials.

Suggested Citation

  • Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2005. "Is there long-run convergence of regional house prices in the UK?," Working Papers 05_11, Motu Economic and Public Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:05_11
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://motu-www.motu.org.nz/wpapers/05_11.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carol Alexander & Michael Barrow, 1994. "Seasonality and Cointegration of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 31(10), pages 1667-1689, December.
    2. Snell, Andy, 1998. "Testing for r versus r-1 cointegrating vectors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 88(1), pages 151-191, November.
    3. Moon, H.R.Hyungsik Roger & Perron, Benoit, 2004. "Testing for a unit root in panels with dynamic factors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 81-126, September.
    4. Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 1999. "Forecasting inflation," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 293-335, October.
    5. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    6. Jushan Bai & Serena Ng, 2004. "A PANIC Attack on Unit Roots and Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 72(4), pages 1127-1177, July.
    7. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:749-67 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Snell, Andy, 1996. "A test of purchasing power parity based on the largest principal component of real exchange rates of the main OECD economies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 51(2), pages 225-231, May.
    9. Peter C.B.Phillips & Donggyu Sul, 2002. "Dynamic Panel Estimation and Homogeneity Testing Under Cross Section Dependence," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1362, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    10. John Ashworth & Simon C. Parker, 1997. "Modelling Regional House Prices in the UK," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 44(3), pages 225-246, August.
    11. Mark J. Holmes & Kul B. Luintel, 1997. "The Regional Demand for Building Society Mortgage Finance," Ekonomia, Cyprus Economic Society and University of Cyprus, vol. 1(1), pages 65-81, Summer.
    12. Joseph G. Nellis & J. Andrew Longbottom, 1981. "An Empirical Analysis of the Determination of House Prices in the United Kingdom," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 18(1), pages 9-21, February.
    13. Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Large Datasets, Small Models and Monetary Policy in Europe," Working Papers 208, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    14. repec:auc:wpaper:194 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    16. repec:bla:scotjp:v:44:y:1997:i:3:p:225-46 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. McDonald, Ronald & Taylor, Mark P, 1993. "Regional House Prices in Britain: Long-Run Relationships and Short-Run Dynamics," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 40(1), pages 43-55, February.
    18. Michael Artis & Anindya Banerjee & Massimiliano Marcellino, "undated". "Factor forecasts for the UK," Working Papers 203, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    19. Cook, Steven, 2005. "Regional house price behaviour in the UK: application of a joint testing procedure," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 345(3), pages 611-621.
    20. Stephen Hall & Stepana Lazarova & Giovanni Urga, 1999. "A Principal Components Analysis of Common Stochastic Trends in Heterogeneous Panel Data: Some Monte Carlo Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 749-767, November.
    21. Steven Cook, 2005. "Detecting long-run relationships in regional house prices in the UK," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 107-118.
    22. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    23. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.
    24. Steven Cook, 2003. "The Convergence of Regional House Prices in the UK," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 40(11), pages 2285-2294, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mark J. Holmes & Arthur Grimes, 2008. "Is There Long-run Convergence among Regional House Prices in the UK?," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 45(8), pages 1531-1544, July.
    2. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen Miller & Stephen Pollard, 2012. "Unit Roots and Structural Change," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 757-776, March.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2010. "Unit Roots and Structural Change: An Application to US House-Price Indices," Working papers 2010-04, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics, revised Dec 2010.
    4. Everaert, Gerdie, 2014. "A panel analysis of the fisher effect with an unobserved I(1) world real interest rate," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 198-210.
    5. Andrew Abbott & Glauco De Vita, 2012. "Pairwise Convergence of District-level House Prices in London," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(4), pages 721-740, March.
    6. Chien-Chiang Lee & Mei-Se Chien, 2011. "Empirical Modelling of Regional House Prices and the Ripple Effect," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 48(10), pages 2029-2047, August.
    7. Steve Cook, 2012. "β-convergence and the Cyclical Dynamics of UK Regional House Prices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 49(1), pages 203-218, January.
    8. Alexey Akimov & Simon Stevenson & James Young, 2015. "Synchronisation and commonalities in metropolitan housing market cycles," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 52(9), pages 1665-1682, July.
    9. Chen, Pei-Fen & Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang, 2011. "Dynamic modeling of regional house price diffusion in Taiwan," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 315-332.
    10. Mei-Se Chien, 2013. "The Non-linear Ripple Effect of Housing Prices in Taiwan: A Smooth Transition Regressive Model," ERES eres2013_51, European Real Estate Society (ERES).
    11. Steve Cook & Duncan Watson, 2016. "A new perspective on the ripple effect in the UK housing market: Comovement, cyclical subsamples and alternative indices," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 53(14), pages 3048-3062, November.
    12. Mei-Se Chien, 2010. "Structural Breaks and the Convergence of Regional House Prices," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(1), pages 77-88, January.
    13. Eleni Kyriazakou & Theodore Panagiotidis, 2018. "A nonlinear pairwise approach for the convergence of UK regional house prices," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 15(2), pages 467-481, April.
    14. Carlos P. Barros & Luis A. Gil-Alana, 2013. "The Housing Markets in Spain and Portugal: Evidence of Persistence," Review of Economics & Finance, Better Advances Press, Canada, vol. 3, pages 19-32, November.
    15. Liu, Xiangling, 2019. "The income elasticity of housing demand in New South Wales, Australia," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 70-84.
    16. Ryan Greenaway‐McGrevy & Arthur Grimes & Mark Holmes, 2019. "Two countries, sixteen cities, five thousand kilometres: How many housing markets?," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(1), pages 353-370, February.
    17. Lo Cascio, Iolanda, 2021. "A wavelet analysis of the ripple effect in UK regional housing markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1093-1105.
    18. Alejandro C. García-Cintado & Diego Romero-Ávila & Carlos Usabiaga, 2016. "The economic integration of Spain: a change in the inflation pattern," Latin American Economic Review, Springer;Centro de Investigaciòn y Docencia Económica (CIDE), vol. 25(1), pages 1-41, December.
    19. Robert Webb & Duncan Watson & Steven Cook, 2021. "Price adjustment in the London housing market," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 58(1), pages 113-130, January.
    20. Bai, Jushan, 2004. "Estimating cross-section common stochastic trends in nonstationary panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 122(1), pages 137-183, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    House prices; convergence; unit roots; cointegration; principal components;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • R0 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:mtu:wpaper:05_11. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Maxine Watene (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/motuenz.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.