Nothing Special   »   [go: up one dir, main page]
IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/jgu/wpaper/2103.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Growing Like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment

Author

Listed:
  • Mathias Hoffmann

    (University of Zurich)

  • Iryna Stewen

    (Johannes Gutenberg University)

  • Michael Stiefel

    (University of Zurich)

Abstract
Using a firm-bank panel of more than 1m German firms over 2010-2016, we document that local public bank lending to municipalities crowds out private investment. Our results show how crowding-out can happen in a developed economy characterized by low interest rates and fiscal austerity. Our mechanism relies on two structural features of Germany’s banking landscape: First, the geographical segmentation of credit markets for small and medium firms (SME) which are dominated by local banks. Secondly, a special statutory mandate requiring local public banks to lend to municipalities. With yields on local government debt declining to all-time lows, local public banks tried to alleviate stress on their balance sheets by using their local market power to charge higher rates on their SME customers. This crowded out firm investment. Perversely, fiscal consolidation at the state and federal levels contributed to this effect by putting pressure on the budgets of municipal governments which increasingly borrowed from local public banks. Crowding-out lowered aggregate private investment by around 30-40 bio euros per year (or 1 percent of GDP). Thus, we identify a novel channel through which low interest rates can adversely affect bank lending and firm performance. Our results also illustrate how segmented credit markets can amplify negative multiplier effects from fiscal austerity

Suggested Citation

  • Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Stewen & Michael Stiefel, 2021. "Growing Like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment," Working Papers 2103, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    • Handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2103
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://download.uni-mainz.de/RePEc/pdf/Discussion_Paper_2103.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2021
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hans Degryse & Steven Ongena, 2005. "Distance, Lending Relationships, and Competition," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(1), pages 231-266, February.
    2. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    3. Thiemo Fetzer, 2019. "Did Austerity Cause Brexit?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3849-3886, November.
    4. Yi Huang & Marco Pagano & Ugo Panizza, 2020. "Local Crowding‐Out in China," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(6), pages 2855-2898, December.
    5. Xavier Gabaix & Ralph S. J. Koijen, 2024. "Granular Instrumental Variables," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(7), pages 2274-2303.
    6. Sanderson, Eleanor & Windmeijer, Frank, 2016. "A weak instrument F-test in linear IV models with multiple endogenous variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 190(2), pages 212-221.
    7. Manuel Adelino & Igor Cunha & Miguel A. Ferreira, 2017. "The Economic Effects of Public Financing: Evidence from Municipal Bond Ratings Recalibration," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(9), pages 3223-3268.
    8. Kilian Huber, 2018. "Disentangling the Effects of a Banking Crisis: Evidence from German Firms and Counties," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(3), pages 868-898, March.
    9. Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens, 2019. "Life below Zero: Bank Lending under Negative Policy Rates," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3728-3761.
    10. Popov, Alexander & Rocholl, Jörg, 2018. "Do credit shocks affect labor demand? Evidence for employment and wages during the financial crisis," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 16-27.
    11. Chen, Peter & Karabarbounis, Loukas & Neiman, Brent, 2017. "The global rise of corporate saving," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 1-19.
    12. Christoph Basten & Mike Mariathasan, 2018. "How Banks Respond to Negative Interest Rates: Evidence from the Swiss Exemption Threshold," CESifo Working Paper Series 6901, CESifo.
    13. Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Atif Mian, 2008. "Tracing the Impact of Bank Liquidity Shocks: Evidence from an Emerging Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 98(4), pages 1413-1442, September.
    14. Joseph Abadi & Markus Brunnermeier & Yann Koby, 2023. "The Reversal Interest Rate," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 113(8), pages 2084-2120, August.
    15. Emi Nakamura & J?n Steinsson, 2014. "Fiscal Stimulus in a Monetary Union: Evidence from US Regions," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 753-792, March.
    16. Christa Hainz & Artem Marjenko & Susanne Wildgruber, 2017. "How the ECB’s Low-Interest Policy Impacts Firms: Results of the ifo Business Survey on them Effects of Negative Interest Rates for Bank Deposits," CESifo Forum, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 18(03), pages 21-24, November.
    17. Zheng Song & Kjetil Storesletten & Fabrizio Zilibotti, 2011. "Growing Like China," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(1), pages 196-233, February.
    18. Sharpe, Steven A, 1990. "Asymmetric Information, Bank Lending, and Implicit Contracts: A Stylized Model of Customer Relationships," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(4), pages 1069-1087, September.
    19. Mai Dao & Chiara Maggi, 2018. "The Rise in Corporate Saving and Cash Holding in Advanced Economies: Aggregate and Firm Level Trends," IMF Working Papers 2018/262, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Michael Koetter & Alexander Popov, 2021. "Political Cycles in Bank Lending to the Government," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 3138-3180.
    21. Hans Degryse & Nancy Masschelein & Janet Mitchell, 2004. "SMEs and Bank Lending Relationships: the Impact of Mergers," Working Paper Research 46, National Bank of Belgium.
    22. Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek, 2007. "Investment and the Cost of Capital: New Evidence from the Corporate Bond Market," NBER Working Papers 13174, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    23. Koetter, Michael & Popov, Alexander, 2018. "Politics, banks, and sub-sovereign debt: Unholy trinity or divine coincidence?," Discussion Papers 53/2018, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    24. Clemens Fuest & Klaus Gründler & Niklas Potrafke & Marcel Fratzscher & Alexander Kriwoluzky & Claus Michelsen & Michael Hüther & Peter Bofinger & Lars P. Feld & Wolf Heinrich Reuter, 2019. "Schuldenbremse — Investitionshemmnis oder Vorbild für Europa? [Debt Brake — Investment Barrier or Role Model for Europe?]," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 99(5), pages 307-329, May.
    25. Guillaume Gilquin, 2014. "Der deutsche Bankensektor," Wirtschaftsdienst, Springer;ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 94(6), pages 420-427, June.
    26. Florian Englmaier & Till Stowasser, 2017. "Electoral Cycles in Savings Bank Lending," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(2), pages 296-354.
    27. repec:ces:ifofor:v::y:2017:i::p:21-24 is not listed on IDEAS
    28. Basten, Christoph & Mariathasan, Mike, 2023. "Interest rate pass-through and bank risk-taking under negative-rate policies with tiered remuneration of central bank reserves," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ivanov, Ivan T. & Zimmermann, Tom, 2024. "The “Privatization” of municipal debt," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 237(C).
    2. Bernardo Morais & José-Luis Peydró & Claudia Ruiz-Ortega, 2021. "Expansionary Austerity: Reallocating Credit Amid Fiscal Consolidation," International Finance Discussion Papers 1323, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    3. Asatryan, Zareh & Heinemann, Friedrich & Nover, Justus, 2022. "The other government: State-owned enterprises in Germany and their implications for the core public sector," ZEW Expert Briefs 22-08, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kilian Huber, 2015. "The Persistence of a Banking Crisis," Discussion Papers 1532, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM).
    2. Bottero, Margherita & Minoiu, Camelia & Peydró, José-Luis & Polo, Andrea & Presbitero, Andrea F. & Sette, Enrico, 2022. "Expansionary yet different: Credit supply and real effects of negative interest rate policy," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 146(2), pages 754-778.
    3. Grandi, Pietro & Guille, Marianne, 2023. "Banks, deposit rigidity and negative rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2022. "What lies beneath—Negative interest rates and bank lending," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    5. Margherita Bottero & Ms. Camelia Minoiu & José-Luis Peydró & Andrea Polo & Mr. Andrea F Presbitero & Enrico Sette, 2019. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Portfolio Rebalancing: Evidence from Credit Register Data," IMF Working Papers 2019/044, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Schelling, Tan & Towbin, Pascal, 2021. "Tiers of Joy? Reserve Tiering and Bank Behavior in a Negative-Rate Environment," CEPR Discussion Papers 16191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Nimrod Segev & Sigal Ribon & Michael Kahn & Jakob Haan, 2024. "Low Interest Rates and Banks’ Interest Margins: Does Deposit Market Concentration Matter?," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 65(2), pages 189-218, June.
    8. Christian Bittner & Diana Bonfim & Florian Heider & Farzad Saidi & Glenn Schepens & Carla Soares, 2022. "The Augmented Bank Balance-Sheet Channel of Monetary Policy," ECONtribute Discussion Papers Series 149, University of Bonn and University of Cologne, Germany.
    9. Bubeck, Johannes & Maddaloni, Angela & Peydró, José-Luis, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks' Risk‐Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 52(S1), pages 197-231.
    10. Théo Nicolas., 2023. "Bank Market Power and Interest Rate Setting: Why Consolidated Banking Data Matte [Pouvoir de marché des banques et fixation des taux d’intérêt : de l’importance de prendre en compte les données ban," Débats économiques et financiers 40, Banque de France.
    11. Lopez, Jose A. & Rose, Andrew K. & Spiegel, Mark M., 2020. "Why have negative nominal interest rates had such a small effect on bank performance? Cross country evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Anne Duquerroy & Clément Mazet-Sonilhac & Jean-Stéphane Mésonnier & Daniel Paravisini, 2022. "Bank Local Specialization," SciencePo Working papers Main hal-03812807, HAL.
    13. Whelsy Boungou & Charles Mawusi, 2023. "Bank lending margins in a negative interest rate environment," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(1), pages 886-901, January.
    14. Berg, Tobias & Haselmann, Rainer & Kick, Thomas & Schreiber, Sebastian, 2023. "Unintended consequences of QE: Real estate prices and financial stability," IMFS Working Paper Series 196, Goethe University Frankfurt, Institute for Monetary and Financial Stability (IMFS).
    15. Olivier De Jonghe & Hans Dewachter & Klaas Mulier & Steven Ongena & Glenn Schepens, 2020. "Some Borrowers Are More Equal than Others: Bank Funding Shocks and Credit Reallocation [A theory of systemic risk and design of prudential bank regulation]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 24(1), pages 1-43.
    16. Kilian Huber, 2021. "Are Bigger Banks Better? Firm-Level Evidence from Germany," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 129(7), pages 2023-2066.
    17. Wang, Olivier, 2020. "Banks, low interest rates, and monetary policy transmission," Working Paper Series 2492, European Central Bank.
    18. Albertazzi, Ugo & Barbiero, Francesca & Marqués-Ibáñez, David & Popov, Alexander & Rodriguez d’Acri, Costanza & Vlassopoulos, Thomas, 2020. "Monetary policy and bank stability: the analytical toolbox reviewed," Working Paper Series 2377, European Central Bank.
    19. Peydró, José-Luis & Maddaloni, Angela, 2020. "Negative Monetary Policy Rates and Systemic Banks’ Risk-Taking: Evidence from the Euro Area Securities Register," CEPR Discussion Papers 14988, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Christoph Basten & Steven Ongena, 2019. "The Geography of Mortgage Lending in Times of FinTech," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 19-39, Swiss Finance Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    local public finance; firm-level investment; crowding-out; fiscal austerity; global and intra-European imbalances;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jgu:wpaper:2103. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Research Unit IPP (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/vlmaide.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.