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Political Cycles in Bank Lending to the Government

Author

Listed:
  • Michael Koetter
  • Alexander Popov
Abstract
We study how political party turnover after German state elections affects banks’ lending to the regional government. We find that between 1992 and 2018, party turnover at the state level leads to a sharp and substantial increase in lending by local savings banks to their home-state government. This effect is accompanied by an equivalent reduction in private lending. A statistical association between political party turnover and government lending is absent for comparable cooperative banks that exhibit a similar regional organization and business model. Our results suggest that political frictions may interfere with government-owned banks’ local development objectives.

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Koetter & Alexander Popov, 2021. "Political Cycles in Bank Lending to the Government," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(6), pages 3138-3180.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:34:y:2021:i:6:p:3138-3180.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhaa118
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Mathias Hoffmann & Iryna Stewen & Michael Stiefel, 2021. "Growing Like Germany: Local Public Debt, Local Banks, Low Private Investment," Working Papers 2103, Gutenberg School of Management and Economics, Johannes Gutenberg-Universität Mainz.
    2. Thomas Lambert & Wolf Wagner & Eden Quxian Zhang, 2023. "Banks, Political Capital, and Growth," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(3), pages 613-655.
    3. Janbaz, Mehdi & Hassan, M. Kabir & Floreani, Josanco & Dreassi, Alberto & Jiménez, Alfredo, 2022. "Political risk in banks: A review and agenda," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C).
    4. Ofori-Sasu, Daniel & Agbloyor, Elikplimi Komla & Nsafoah, Dennis & Asongu, Simplice A., 2024. "Banking behaviour and political business cycle in Africa: The role of independent regulatory policies of the central bank," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    5. Oliver Hülsewig & Armin Steinbach, 2024. "Banking Regulation and Sovereign Default Risk: How Regulation Undermines Rules," CESifo Working Paper Series 11190, CESifo.
    6. Li, Xiang, 2022. "The role of state-owned banks in crises: Evidence from German banks during COVID-19," IWH Discussion Papers 6/2022, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH), revised 2022.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • D72 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Political Processes: Rent-seeking, Lobbying, Elections, Legislatures, and Voting Behavior
    • P16 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Capitalist Institutions; Welfare State

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