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Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory

Author

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  • Hippolyte d'Albis

    (PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement)

  • Angela Greulich

    (INED - Institut national d'études démographiques, CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

  • Grégory Ponthière

    (ERUDITE - Equipe de Recherche sur l’Utilisation des Données Individuelles en lien avec la Théorie Economique - UPEM - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée - UPEC UP12 - Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12, PSE - Paris School of Economics - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement, PJSE - Paris Jourdan Sciences Economiques - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - ENS-PSL - École normale supérieure - Paris - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - INRA - Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique - EHESS - École des hautes études en sciences sociales - ENPC - École des Ponts ParisTech - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique)

Abstract
During the last two centuries, fertility has exhibited, in industrialized economies, two distinct trends: the cohort total fertility rate follows a decreasing pattern, while the cohort average age at motherhood exhibits a U-shaped pattern. This paper proposes a unified growth theory aimed at rationalizing those two demographic stylized facts. We develop a three-period OLG model with two periods of fertility, and show how a traditional economy, where individuals do not invest in higher education, and where income rises push towards advancing births, can progressively converge towards a modern economy, where individuals invest in higher education, and where income rises encourage postponing births. Our findings are illustrated numerically by replicating the dynamics of the quantum and the tempo of births for Swedish cohorts born between 1876 and 1966.

Suggested Citation

  • Hippolyte d'Albis & Angela Greulich & Grégory Ponthière, 2017. "Development, fertility and childbearing age: A unified growth theory," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01452846, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-01452846
    Note: View the original document on HAL open archive server: https://shs.hal.science/halshs-01452846
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    2. Jelnov, Pavel, 2023. "The marriage age U-shape," Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 89(2), pages 211-252, June.
    3. Sandra Brée & David de la Croix, 2019. "Key forces behind the decline of fertility: lessons from childlessness in Rouen before the industrial revolution," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 13(1), pages 25-54, January.
    4. Evangelos Dioikitopoulos & Dimitrios Varvarigos, 2023. "Delay in childbearing and the evolution of fertility rates," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(3), pages 1545-1571, July.
    5. Nicolas Abad & Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2024. "New fertility patterns: The role of human versus physical capital," AMSE Working Papers 2416, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    6. Johanna Etner & Natacha Raffin & Thomas Seegmuller, 2022. "Postponement, career development and fertility rebound," AMSE Working Papers 2225, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    7. Oliwia Komada, 2023. "Raising America's future: search for optimal child-related transfers," GRAPE Working Papers 84, GRAPE Group for Research in Applied Economics.
    8. Canning, David & Mabeu, Marie Christelle & Pongou, Roland, 2020. "Colonial origins and fertility: can the market overcome history?," MPRA Paper 112496, University Library of Munich, Germany.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fertility; childbearing age; births postponement; human capital; regime shift;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O12 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Microeconomic Analyses of Economic Development

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