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China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis

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  • Yin, Yongkun
Abstract
China’s fertility decline was very fast. But the drivers of this decline are not well understood. The common wisdom attributes it to the strict population control policies, particularly the One-Child Policy. Yet, fertility decline might also be due to the spectacular economic transformation and substantial mortality decline. To quantify the effects of different factors on China’s demographic and economic transition, I develop a two-sector overlapping-generation model with workers’ movement from rural to urban areas and endogenous fertility and education choices. Quantitative analysis shows that even without any population policy, the total fertility rate (TFR) would decline from 5.78 children around 1950 to 2.65 children around 2010. However, the population policies were crucial for the TFR to fall below the replacement level and do so very quickly after the 1980s. By around 2010, the cumulative effect of population policies reduced fertility from 2.65 to 1.30 children. The baseline model is also extended to incorporate the hukou system, considering that different hukou types are linked to different child quotas under the One-Child Policy and government transfers. The extended model suggests that the impact of the hukou system on fertility decisions was relatively minor.

Suggested Citation

  • Yin, Yongkun, 2023. "China’s demographic transition: A quantitative analysis," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 160(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eecrev:v:160:y:2023:i:c:s0014292123002192
    DOI: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2023.104591
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    Cited by:

    1. Yongkun Yin, 2022. "Intergenerational Transmission of Fertility: Evidence from China’s Population Control Policies," Working Papers wp2022_2211, CEMFI.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographic transition; Structural transformation; Population policies; Productivity growth; Mortality; China;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D1 - Microeconomics - - Household Behavior
    • J13 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Fertility; Family Planning; Child Care; Children; Youth
    • O41 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - One, Two, and Multisector Growth Models

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