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Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response

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Abstract
Using a panel of tax data, we follow the earnings of individuals over business cycles. Compared to prior recessions, the Covid policy response and recovery were far more progressive. Among workers starting in the bottom quintile, median real earnings including fiscal relief increased 66 percent in 2020 and earnings increases offset relief decreases in the 2021 recovery. After the prior two recessions, this measure had decreased by 24 percent. Among those starting in the top quintile, median and average real earnings were approximately unchanged. This difference from prior recessions is largely attributable to larger Covid-era stimulus payments and unemployment insurance.

Suggested Citation

  • Jeff Larrimore & Jacob Mortenson & David Splinter, 2023. "Earnings Business Cycles: The Covid Recession, Recovery, and Policy Response," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-004, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2023-1-6
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2023.004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Wages; Earnings; Stimulus checks; Unemployment insurance; Countercyclical policy; Government transfers;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D31 - Microeconomics - - Distribution - - - Personal Income and Wealth Distribution
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • J30 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - General
    • J65 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment Insurance; Severance Pay; Plant Closings

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