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The Impact of Covid-19 on Older Workers' Employment and Social Security Spillovers

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Listed:
  • Gopi Shah Goda
  • Emilie Jackson
  • Lauren Hersch Nicholas
  • Sarah See Stith
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic and associated mitigation strategies exacted a large economic toll on large portions of the United States population. For older and disabled workers, the effects could be more persistent and fiscally costly than the impacts experienced by young, healthy workers due to the spillovers onto Social Security. We use Current Population Survey, Social Security administrative data on applications for retirement and disability benefits, and Google Trends data to assess the impact of COVID-19 on older adults age 50-70. We find that employment for this group dropped substantially more than would have been predicted prior to the pandemic: employment for 50-61 year olds was 5.7 pp (8.3 percent) lower, while employment for 62-70-year- olds was 3.9 pp (10.7 percent) lower. For people aged 50-61, unemployment and labor force exits due to reasons other than disability and retirement represented 63 and 30 percent of the employment decline, respectively. For those aged 62-70, the two largest components of the reduction were unemployment (50 percent) and retirement-driven labor force exits (30 percent). We find evidence of declines in reporting a labor force exit due to disability (4-5 percent), applications for disability insurance (15 percent), and Google search intensity for disability (7 percent). Retirement benefit claiming remains largely unchanged overall, though we find evidence that applicants substituted towards filing for benefits via the internet. We explore potential mechanisms and find evidence for both supply- and demand-side explanations.

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  • Gopi Shah Goda & Emilie Jackson & Lauren Hersch Nicholas & Sarah See Stith, 2021. "The Impact of Covid-19 on Older Workers' Employment and Social Security Spillovers," NBER Working Papers 29083, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:29083
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    Cited by:

    1. Di Novi, C. & Paruolo, P. & Verzillo, S., 2022. "The Role of Employment Protection Legislation Regimes in Shaping the Impact of Job Disruption on Older Workers’ Mental Health in Times of COVID-19," Health, Econometrics and Data Group (HEDG) Working Papers 22/03, HEDG, c/o Department of Economics, University of York.
    2. Anat Herbst-Debby, 2023. "What’s Your Pension Story? Women’s Perspectives during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Their Old-Age Pension Status, Past and Present," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 20(10), pages 1-20, May.
    3. Alstadsæter, Annette & Bratsberg, Bernt & Markussen, Simen & Raaum, Oddbjørn & Røed, Knut, 2023. "Social Gradients in Employment during and after the COVID-19 Pandemic," IZA Discussion Papers 16260, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    4. Di Novi, Cinzia & Paruolo, Paolo & Verzillo, Stefano, 2023. "Does labour protection influence mental-health responses to employment shocks? Evidence on older workers in Europe," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Owen Davis, 2021. "Employment and Retirement Among Older Workers During the Covid-19 Pandemic," SCEPA working paper series. 2021-06, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.
    6. Owen Davis, 2021. "Employment and Retirement Among Older Workers During the Covid-19 Pandemic," SCEPA publication series. 2021-06, Schwartz Center for Economic Policy Analysis (SCEPA), The New School.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions
    • J22 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Time Allocation and Labor Supply
    • J23 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Labor Demand
    • J26 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Retirement; Retirement Policies

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