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Effects of financial crises on productivity, capital and employment

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  • Oulton, Nicholas
  • Sebastiá-Barriel, María
Abstract
We examine the hypothesis that capacity can be permanently damaged by financial, particularly banking, crises. A model which allows a financial crisis to have both a short-run effect on the growth rate of labor productivity and a long-run effect on its level is estimated on 61 countries over 1954–2010. A banking crisis as defined by Reinhart and Rogoff reduces the long-run level of GDP per worker, and also that of capital per worker, by on average 1.1 percent, for each year that the crisis lasts; it also reduces the TFP level by 0.8%. The long run, negative effect on the level of GDP per capita, 1.8 percent, is substantially larger. So there is also a hit to employment. The effects on labor productivity, capital and TFP are larger in developing than in developed countries; the opposite is the case for employment.

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  • Oulton, Nicholas & Sebastiá-Barriel, María, 2017. "Effects of financial crises on productivity, capital and employment," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 68541, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    • Handle: RePEc:ehl:lserod:68541
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    Cited by:

    1. Crafts, Nicholas, 2019. "The Fall in UK Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: a Much Bigger Estimate," CEPR Discussion Papers 13428, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Nicholas Oulton, 2019. "The UK and Western Productivity Puzzle: Does Arthur Lewis Hold the Key?," International Productivity Monitor, Centre for the Study of Living Standards, vol. 36, pages 110-141, Spring.
    3. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    4. Lau, Chi Keung & Pal, Shreya & Mahalik, Mantu Kumar & Gozgor, Giray, 2022. "Economic globalization convergence in high and low globalized developing economies: Implications for the post Covid-19 era," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 1027-1039.
    5. Schneider, Patrick, 2018. "Decomposing differences in productivity distributions," Bank of England working papers 740, Bank of England.
    6. Rath, Badri Narayan & Akram, Vaseem, 2019. "A reassessment of total factor productivity convergence: Evidence from cross-country analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 87-98.
    7. Puneet Arora & Alberto Chong & Carla Srebot, 2024. "Systemic Financial Crises and Income Inequality in OECD Countries," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 687-694, July.
    8. Nicholas Crafts, 2017. "Is Slow Economic Growth the ‘New Normal’ for Europe?," Atlantic Economic Journal, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 45(3), pages 283-297, September.
    9. Dacic, Nikola & Melolinna, Marko, 2019. "The empirics of granular origins: some challenges and solutions with an application to the UK," Bank of England working papers 842, Bank of England.
    10. Niebel, Thomas, 2019. "Wachstumsperspektiven der digitalen Transformation: Wird der ökonomische Mehrwert der Digitalisierung in der Volkswirtschaftlichen Gesamtrechnung angemessen abgebildet?," Working Paper Forschungsförderung 142, Hans-Böckler-Stiftung, Düsseldorf.
    11. Dieppe,Alistair Matthew & Kilic Celik,Sinem & Okou,Cedric Iltis Finafa, 2020. "Implications of Major Adverse Events on Productivity," Policy Research Working Paper Series 9411, The World Bank.
    12. Nikola Dacic & Marko Melolinna, 2022. "The empirics of granular origins: some challenges and solutions with an application to the UK," Journal of Productivity Analysis, Springer, vol. 58(2), pages 151-170, December.
    13. Dovern, Jonas & Zuber, Christopher, 2020. "How economic crises damage potential output – Evidence from the Great Recession," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    14. John G. Fernald & Robert Inklaar, 2022. "The UK Productivity “Puzzle” in an International Comparative Perspective," Working Paper Series 2022-07, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    15. Driffield, Nigel & Pereira, Vijay & Temouri, Yama, 2019. "Does offshore outsourcing impact home employment? Evidence from service multinationals," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 448-459.
    16. Nicholas Crafts, 2019. "The Fall in Potential Output due to the Financial Crisis: A Much Bigger Estimate for the UK," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 61(4), pages 625-635, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    banking crisis; financial; potential output; productivity; recession;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

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